MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[sac]

Sometime back in late December when assessing how the MIAA race was going to play out, I made the comment it would probably look a lot like last year.  By that I meant the middle of the league would eat itself up and Hope could potentially have a big lead in the standings again.


Here's the similarly spooky looking standings from exactly 1 year ago after 10 league games.

Hope    9-1     +4
Calvin   6-4     +1
Olivet   6-4     +1
Albion   6-4      +1
Adrian  5-5      0
Kzoo    5-5      0
Trine    2-8     -3
Alma    1-8     -4

The one game difference for Hope is being able to comeback from a huge deficit at home to Calvin this year, and not last year.  They've also spent most of each game well ahead and in control, unlike last year where they frequently faced both big and small deficits.   Otherwise the league race has played out in nearly the same fashion for the Dutchmen, taking care of their own business while others slip and stumble at various points. 

Unfortunately its decreased the frequency of pressure packed games and situations.  I know Hope had some things riding on that Albion game yesterday (NCAA seeding, #1 rankings, etc. etc.)......but how different might that last couple minutes played out if Hope only had a 1 or 2 games lead in the standings, instead of 3?   Or how different would that trip to Adrian have been this week with only a 1 game lead?

[sac]

I could not understand Whitfield actions either!  However, I've learned that anything is possible with MIAA officiating. I was hoping to see different or new officials this year with a new the assigner.  Hasn't happened.  Part of the problem with MIAA is they use the same officials over and over.  The new assigner needs to add officials to his MIAA staff so we don't see the same officials time and time again. Having an officials three or four times a year makes it tough on the coaches and the players.

Interesting, we had a similar discussion about officials over dinner last night and reached a different conclusion about the frequency we've seen referees.

In league play thus far the MIAA has used around 57 different officials.  I say around because sometimes names are incorrect or spelled differently on different boxscores.    (For the love of God someone figure out how to spell Brett and Bart Wajenke, Wajanecke, Wagenka's names correctly.)

Hope has had about 23 different officials for its 10 conference games.  The most Hope MIAA games any one official has done is 2.

Travis Plain has done 6 MIAA contests, Randy Hutton 5, then Greg VanDyken, Todd Geerlings, Pat Stegeman, Richard Ames, Mike Kavulich, Mark Ditsworth and John Creek have done 4.  27 different officials have done only 1 MIAA contest to date.  I'm pretty sure not one 3 man crew has been the same.  I think most would conclude this is far different from what the league used to see.



The most interesting name missing from any MIAA boxscore is Jim Schipper.  Schipper has been doing GLIAC and a few D1 games.

Other formerly prominent names I have failed to see so far this year in league play:  Kendall Smith, Ray Kelser, Dave Gentile and Malcom Pennington.   All but Kelser were officials in at least one MIAA Tournament game last season.

[BogeyMan]

I could not understand Whitfield actions either!  However, I've learned that anything is possible with MIAA officiating. I was hoping to see different or new officials this year with a new the assigner.  Hasn't happened.  Part of the problem with MIAA is they use the same officials over and over.  The new assigner needs to add officials to his MIAA staff so we don't see the same officials time and time again. Having an officials three or four times a year makes it tough on the coaches and the players.

Interesting, we had a similar discussion about officials over dinner last night and reached a different conclusion about the frequency we've seen referees.

In league play thus far the MIAA has used around 57 different officials.  I say around because sometimes names are incorrect or spelled differently on different boxscores.    (For the love of God someone figure out how to spell Brett and Bart Wajenke, Wajanecke, Wagenka's names correctly.)

Hope has had about 23 different officials for its 10 conference games.  The most Hope MIAA games any one official has done is 2.

Travis Plain has done 6 MIAA contests, Randy Hutton 5, then Greg VanDyken, Todd Geerlings, Pat Stegeman, Richard Ames, Mike Kavulich, Mark Ditsworth and John Creek have done 4.  27 different officials have done only 1 MIAA contest to date.  I'm pretty sure not one 3 man crew has been the same.  I think most would conclude this is far different from what the league used to see.



The most interesting name missing from any MIAA boxscore is Jim Schipper.  Schipper has been doing GLIAC and a few D1 games.

Other formerly prominent names I have failed to see so far this year in league play:  Kendall Smith, Ray Kelser, Dave Gentile and Malcom Pennington.   All but Kelser were officials in at least one MIAA Tournament game last season.

For some reason I knew you would come up with some factual information on my post.  In my opinion  your information is good news for all MIAA fans.  For some reason I don't mind being wrong on this one!!!  Thanks Sac!  Also, I thought Geerlings did a good job yesterday.

[alexj35]

I've had to hear about Geerlings "Hope bias" from people for years which I find stunningly ridiculous but apparently that's just me.....exhibit A the first foul on VanArendonk 52 seconds into the game on Albion's first possession.  Nothing screams bias like nailing a teams 6-10 center on the first trip down the floor for in my opinion nothing foul worthy.

The significance of Geerlings being the one who had to call the intentional foul at the end of the game was not lost on me and I chuckled inside quite a bit.   Mostly because somewhere inside Kresge I knew someone was loosing it inside a little.   


Wallace Whitfield was one of the officials at the Olivet/Adrian OT debacle I witnessed last year, so that may have played into my psyche today a little.  He's been good enough to be one of the 3 for the MIAA Championship game a few times.

to this day, i cringe at the thought of that fateful game in olivet last february 23rd... what an unbelievable way that was for olivet seniors michael mcclary, nathan jennings, and joe post to end their college careers. it was just one thing after another, where it seemed obvious that at least 2 of the 3 guys in stripes were doing everything in their power to keep olivet from advancing. and i tell you what, hope is fortunate that that happened. i can't say for sure that the comets woulda beat hope in holland, but they woulda had a really good shot at em and made hope play a solid 40 minutes to earn it. instead, they got to beat up on adrian and then take down the tournament. ugh... what coulda and shoulda been...

[goodknight]

If I follow the previous post correctly, the implication is that Hope and Calvin get all the calls EVEN in the games in which they are NOT PLAYING.  Now that's some serious cred in the MIAA.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

Is today the day we see the Dutchmen atop the polls?  Not to look past Wed's games, but I'm pretty excited to welcome the top dog into Van Noord on Saturday. 

[HopeConvert]

Writing about Hope's ascendancy in the polls, Pat Coleman writes:

"Understandable about Hope — however, since they wouldn't provide our voters with a preseason breakdown of who was returning, we didn't speculate."

Which explains Hope's preseason ranking. As for where they are now, Pat writes:

"Hope. Clearly they've beaten everyone we would expect them to, though, with the only loss to D-I Western Michigan. I just am not sure who they have beaten, because they play so many non-Division III teams. It's hard to tell what a win against Cornerstone or Mount Vernon Nazarene means. The best win on a D-III level is a one-point win against Wheaton (Ill.) on a neutral floor. That at least puts Hope on par with the best teams in the CCIW, so considering them for No. 1 is not at all a stretch. But just not sold."

It is difficult to know how good Hope is. They've taken care of their schedule, but how that compares to 1 loss or two losses in the NESCAC or CCIW or WIAC or NCAC is beyond me. I was saying after Saturday's game that I just don't have a feel for how good this team is, or how deeply they can go in the tournament. I guess there is only one way we'll find out. I do think they're better than last year's team. One poster has opined they're better than the 2008 Final Four team. I'm not as sure about that.

[BogeyMan]

I wonder if the Regional Ranking Committee has the same concerns as HopeConvert.  The regional rankings could be very interesting.  From what I have seen this year Hope is a much better team than last year.

[GoKnights68]

Anyone know Rietema's status for playing this week?

[Stinger]

Geerlings is a hack.

[sac]

Hope's schedule D3 equivalent per massey

Rochester, MI  ----    Wilmington/Catholic/Medaille
Spring Arbor, MI ----  Pomona-Pitzer/UT-Dallas/W. Conn. St.
Aquinas ----   Salem St./Simpson/Concordia/McMurry
Cornerstone ----   Redlands/Hardin-Simmons/John Carroll
Western Michigan ----  hahahaha
Wheaton ---- Wheaton
Carthage ---- Carthage
Marian, IN ----  WPI
Mt. Vernon Naz. ----  Merchant Marine
Marietta ----  Marietta
Indiana Wesleyan ----  E. Conn St./ St. Thomas


Hope's schedule strength in Massey's index is #13 this week, filtering out the WMU game still leaves them about #23.   Conclusion:     Hope has played a pretty good small college schedule.

[HopeConvert]

Another poster passed this on to me. Definitely worth checking:

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2012-02-04/calvin-hope-not-just-local-rivalry

[sac]

I've liked using basketball efficiency for a few years now.  This 2012 Hope team is pretty good, and is getting pretty close to favorable ratings vs most of Hope's other teams that won the MIAA in recent years.

          OFF           DEF
2012   110.07      90.06  ----  220.01

2008   114.52      90.44    ----224.08
2007   113.33      90.49    ----222.84
2006   110.01      86.78    ----223.23

To review....06 lost Sweet 16 @ Wittenberg to eventual runner-up, 07 lost Elite 8 vs Washington National Champion, 08 lost semi-final to Washington, National Champion


Also if you want to pull out the WMU game which was such a real and statistical mismatch add about 1 point to offense and subtract 1 from defense to their performance vs like competition.   


vs last year,

2012  110.07      90.06     ----220.01
2011  112.37      99.80     ----212.57

Hope's played a tougher schedule this year, I don't think that can be disputed though it should be pointed out the MIAA probably isn't as strong top to bottom.  Hope's biggest improvement has been its defense which has been been really good and consistent all year long.  Last year's team didn't start playing the kind of defense Hope has played this year until about 2 weeks into the MIAA season.


It also needs to be pointed out Hope's efficiency numbers have been steadily improving all year.   Since about the middle of the non-conference schedule they've really been on a tear.  A good chunk of their lowest offensive and defensive performances of the year all occurred in the first 6 games.  I don't know if they will continue to do so over the next 3 weeks, but they match the on-court improvement I've seen.


So ultimately the question is probably do I think Hope is #1 in D3......my answer is probably not at least from this statistical point of view.  But I do think they are among the 10 or 15 of D3's best this year.  When you factor in what is actually a pretty strong schedule compared to the others in D3's elite, they should probably me right in the discussion for who's the best in D3 this year.   The fact that this late in the year they are the only team without a loss at this level should probably be considered significant, its Feb 6 with just 3 weeks left after all.

Many years ago Pat used to refer to the 'eye test' when looking at D3 teams.  I'm not sure this Hope team would pass that test for some people.   They aren't tall on the roster but they play tall, have great length, some good quickness.  An excellent PG, 2 solid post players for this level, a good bench that contributes and a player who's on court performance can turn a game in a heartbeat.  All the elements to be a really good team are there except great 3 point shooting, and really they've actually been pretty good from that line.


I'm fine if they are #1 or not, it doesn't mean anything for tournament seeding or selection.  It would be a nice piece of recognition for this team.  Who wouldn't want to someday tell people we were ranked #1?

I'd welcome it, but I'm not sure I'd believe it.

[Gregory Sager]

Aquinas ----   Salem St./Simpson/Concordia/McMurry

Which Concordia?

Hope's schedule strength in Massey's index is #13 this week, filtering out the WMU game still leaves them about #23.   Conclusion:     Hope has played a pretty good small college schedule.

... which has probably helped Hope on the court, but it won't help Hope in the proverbial smoke-filled room on Selection Day.

[Pat Coleman]

Well, Hope doesn't have to worry about selection the way things are going and I can't imagine they have to worry about seeding.