MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[KnightSlappy]

Jordan Brink's last shot at VNA!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJyLyFOPTwY

Probably, but not necessarily. As KnightSlappy points out Calvin has a winnable first round pod. The way the next round works out, and given the teams likely to come out of the other bracket, Calvin would be well situated to host the second weekend round of games. Pat Coleman notes that if the Calvin women win two games at VNA this weekend, and the men successfully complete their two games in Ohio, the NCAA could be tempted to shift out the Lady Knights and give the men's team hosting rights. Lot of work to be done for that to happen, but it's possible Jordan Brink could score again on his home floor.

Curiously, the women are in a similar situation. If the top-seeded teams all win their pods of four, there will remain a team from Oregon (George Fox), Texas-Dallas, and two from the midwest (Calvin and DePauw). George Fox might be the highest seeded, but the only way to avoid three flights would be to have the sweet 16 pod in the midwest, and Calvin would be the highest seeded of the two midwest teams.

I suppose they could move the pod to DePauw, though.

To get to the final four, Calvin would have to get through George Fox, the best team in D3 by almost 2 points according to Massey. That wouldn't be easy.

Men's teams have the priority to host in the second weekend of odd numbered years (women priority in the first weekend). So, if the Men's committee wanted to put a pod there, the Women's committee would have to move Calvin on the road.

[calvinite]

I would like to publicly and sincerely apologize for my post on the facetious dangers of cheer leading and rowing. It was in poor taste, and I wish I had not made it. My wife DID make that comment about the rowing at the game, and we did talk about it, but the comment was never-the-less in poor taste. I am sorry.

[Pat Coleman]

Jordan Brink's last shot at VNA!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJyLyFOPTwY

Probably, but not necessarily. As KnightSlappy points out Calvin has a winnable first round pod. The way the next round works out, and given the teams likely to come out of the other bracket, Calvin would be well situated to host the second weekend round of games. Pat Coleman notes that if the Calvin women win two games at VNA this weekend, and the men successfully complete their two games in Ohio, the NCAA could be tempted to shift out the Lady Knights and give the men's team hosting rights. Lot of work to be done for that to happen, but it's possible Jordan Brink could score again on his home floor.

.

KnightSlappy covers all the angles.  I wonder if we could get a probability on that?

It's more or less the probability that Calvin wins their pod + Wooster not winning the Marietta pod + Ohio Wesleyan or St. Olaf not winning the UW-Whitewater pod.

So a decent estimate might be 6%? I'll have to run the numbers (or have Happy Calvin Guy help me out with Massey percentages of the other pods).

So you're saying there's a chance.

[almcguirejr]

Jordan Brink's last shot at VNA!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJyLyFOPTwY

Probably, but not necessarily. As KnightSlappy points out Calvin has a winnable first round pod. The way the next round works out, and given the teams likely to come out of the other bracket, Calvin would be well situated to host the second weekend round of games. Pat Coleman notes that if the Calvin women win two games at VNA this weekend, and the men successfully complete their two games in Ohio, the NCAA could be tempted to shift out the Lady Knights and give the men's team hosting rights. Lot of work to be done for that to happen, but it's possible Jordan Brink could score again on his home floor.

.

KnightSlappy covers all the angles.  I wonder if we could get a probability on that?

It's more or less the probability that Calvin wins their pod + Wooster not winning the Marietta pod + Ohio Wesleyan or St. Olaf not winning the UW-Whitewater pod.

So a decent estimate might be 6%? I'll have to run the numbers (or have Happy Calvin Guy help me out with Massey percentages of the other pods).

So you're saying there's a chance.

A 6% chance is higher than Calvin's chances of coming back from 11 down with 5 minutes to go Saturday night.

[BogeyMan]

I wasn't at the game (fortunately), so I won't comment on it. I did recall that the court-storming issue had come up before after Hope students had stormed the court after a victory at Calvin (in January of '08). At the time I expressed concerns about safety and the appropriateness of the act. For holding this position, I was roundly pilloried by ... my fellow Hope fans, who heaped a good deal of invective on me for having the temerity to suggest that it is precisely when people are most riled up that restraint is most needed. You can look up their comments yourself, but some of the harshest criticisms of me then were made by persons expressing concern now. [NB: sac was not one of them.]

There are few things in life to be feared more than a mob, especially when that mob has taken leave of its senses, which may be aided by too much alcohol. I love basketball. I love the rivalry. But some perspective is needed here. I've gotten to know a lot of the posters on this board and have found all of them to be decent, likable people. I've even become friends with a few people I've met from posting. I hate to see this board turn ugly, which (like politics) often happens because we wear blinders.

Maybe I'm motivated by an "I told you so" kind of impulse, but really I'd like to have all of us put aside our Maroon-and-Gold or Orange-and-Blue glasses a second and realize that losing a basketball game is not the worst thing that happens to us in this world, and winning one is not the best. (I guess I've mixed my metaphors there, but I'll let it stand.) If Hope and Calvin students don't get that and behave reprehensibly, then our institutions have failed at a fundamental level. I can say this: if I witnessed a Hope student talk to the parent of a Calvin player (or anyone, for that matter) that way, he or she would be getting an earful from me.

My pomposity will now take the rest of the night off.

The best post since the heated rivalry ended.  Thank you HopeConvert for some common sense. 

As a longtime high school athletic director and host of hundreds of heat rivalry regular season and high school tournament games, I have many concerns over what the game administrators responsibilities are at college game like this.  The legal aspects of someone getting hurt by a crowd of fans rushing the floor needs to be brought up.  Game administrators are responsible for the safety of the players and the fans.  There are ways to keep the students in the stands and everyone safe.  It doesn't need to go ESPN or to the NCAA, it needs to start with each school's administration.  People have sued for less than getting trampled on a basketball court.  Due diligence is a must among game administrators!

So my question is, did game administration provide a safe environment at game?  I don't know because I wasn't there, nor did I watch the video.

Also, I could care less about my karma so you Calvin posters can ding me all you want!

[oldknight]

I wasn't at the game (fortunately), so I won't comment on it. I did recall that the court-storming issue had come up before after Hope students had stormed the court after a victory at Calvin (in January of '08). At the time I expressed concerns about safety and the appropriateness of the act. For holding this position, I was roundly pilloried by ... my fellow Hope fans, who heaped a good deal of invective on me for having the temerity to suggest that it is precisely when people are most riled up that restraint is most needed. You can look up their comments yourself, but some of the harshest criticisms of me then were made by persons expressing concern now. [NB: sac was not one of them.]

There are few things in life to be feared more than a mob, especially when that mob has taken leave of its senses, which may be aided by too much alcohol. I love basketball. I love the rivalry. But some perspective is needed here. I've gotten to know a lot of the posters on this board and have found all of them to be decent, likable people. I've even become friends with a few people I've met from posting. I hate to see this board turn ugly, which (like politics) often happens because we wear blinders.

Maybe I'm motivated by an "I told you so" kind of impulse, but really I'd like to have all of us put aside our Maroon-and-Gold or Orange-and-Blue glasses a second and realize that losing a basketball game is not the worst thing that happens to us in this world, and winning one is not the best. (I guess I've mixed my metaphors there, but I'll let it stand.) If Hope and Calvin students don't get that and behave reprehensibly, then our institutions have failed at a fundamental level. I can say this: if I witnessed a Hope student talk to the parent of a Calvin player (or anyone, for that matter) that way, he or she would be getting an earful from me.

My pomposity will now take the rest of the night off.

The best post since the heated rivalry ended.  Thank you HopeConvert for some common sense. 

As a longtime high school athletic director and host of hundreds of heat rivalry regular season and high school tournament games, I have many concerns over what the game administrators responsibilities are at college game like this.  The legal aspects of someone getting hurt by a crowd of fans rushing the floor needs to be brought up.  Game administrators are responsible for the safety of the players and the fans.  There are ways to keep the students in the stands and everyone safe.  It doesn't need to go ESPN or to the NCAA, it needs to start with each school's administration.  People have sued for less than getting trampled on a basketball court.  Due diligence is a must among game administrators!

So my question is, did game administration provide a safe environment at game?  I don't know because I wasn't there, nor did I watch the video.

Also, I could care less about my karma so you Calvin posters can ding me all you want!

I am certain there will be changes to avoid future fan rushes. That would start with sufficient security. No ding from me. I haven't done that in a month and the person I hit--for being stupid and offensive beyond belief--posted on another board and I think is now inactive. Only +k to you.

[KnightSlappy]

Jordan Brink's last shot at VNA!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJyLyFOPTwY

Probably, but not necessarily. As KnightSlappy points out Calvin has a winnable first round pod. The way the next round works out, and given the teams likely to come out of the other bracket, Calvin would be well situated to host the second weekend round of games. Pat Coleman notes that if the Calvin women win two games at VNA this weekend, and the men successfully complete their two games in Ohio, the NCAA could be tempted to shift out the Lady Knights and give the men's team hosting rights. Lot of work to be done for that to happen, but it's possible Jordan Brink could score again on his home floor.

.

KnightSlappy covers all the angles.  I wonder if we could get a probability on that?

It's more or less the probability that Calvin wins their pod + Wooster not winning the Marietta pod + Ohio Wesleyan or St. Olaf not winning the UW-Whitewater pod.

So a decent estimate might be 6%? I'll have to run the numbers (or have Happy Calvin Guy help me out with Massey percentages of the other pods).

So you're saying there's a chance.

A 6% chance is higher than Calvin's chances of coming back from 11 down with 5 minutes to go Saturday night.

OK, so I ran the Massey numbers and it came out better than I expected. We're looking at about an 11% chance of Calvin winning and being the only host candidate within 500 miles of the other three possible sectional teams (if I have it right). And since Calvin is a 22% chance to win their pod, that means about 50% of the scenarios with them winning have this playing out.

I'm thinking it doesn't matter who comes out of the Augustana pod, Calvin (obviously) has to come out of the Mount Union pod, UW-Whitewater or Defiance have to come out of the UWW pod, and either Marietta or Medaille out of the Marietta pod (the only exception to this is it can't be DePauw, Defiance, and Marietta with Calvin, but this particular scenario is like 0.1%).

Keenly aware that I'm quite literally the only one interested in that brief probabilistic discussion.

[calvin_grad]

I wasn't at the game (fortunately), so I won't comment on it. I did recall that the court-storming issue had come up before after Hope students had stormed the court after a victory at Calvin (in January of '08). At the time I expressed concerns about safety and the appropriateness of the act. For holding this position, I was roundly pilloried by ... my fellow Hope fans, who heaped a good deal of invective on me for having the temerity to suggest that it is precisely when people are most riled up that restraint is most needed. You can look up their comments yourself, but some of the harshest criticisms of me then were made by persons expressing concern now. [NB: sac was not one of them.]

There are few things in life to be feared more than a mob, especially when that mob has taken leave of its senses, which may be aided by too much alcohol. I love basketball. I love the rivalry. But some perspective is needed here. I've gotten to know a lot of the posters on this board and have found all of them to be decent, likable people. I've even become friends with a few people I've met from posting. I hate to see this board turn ugly, which (like politics) often happens because we wear blinders.

Maybe I'm motivated by an "I told you so" kind of impulse, but really I'd like to have all of us put aside our Maroon-and-Gold or Orange-and-Blue glasses a second and realize that losing a basketball game is not the worst thing that happens to us in this world, and winning one is not the best. (I guess I've mixed my metaphors there, but I'll let it stand.) If Hope and Calvin students don't get that and behave reprehensibly, then our institutions have failed at a fundamental level. I can say this: if I witnessed a Hope student talk to the parent of a Calvin player (or anyone, for that matter) that way, he or she would be getting an earful from me.

My pomposity will now take the rest of the night off.

The best post since the heated rivalry ended.  Thank you HopeConvert for some common sense. 

As a longtime high school athletic director and host of hundreds of heat rivalry regular season and high school tournament games, I have many concerns over what the game administrators responsibilities are at college game like this.  The legal aspects of someone getting hurt by a crowd of fans rushing the floor needs to be brought up.  Game administrators are responsible for the safety of the players and the fans.  There are ways to keep the students in the stands and everyone safe.  It doesn't need to go ESPN or to the NCAA, it needs to start with each school's administration.  People have sued for less than getting trampled on a basketball court.  Due diligence is a must among game administrators!

So my question is, did game administration provide a safe environment at game?  I don't know because I wasn't there, nor did I watch the video.

Also, I could care less about my karma so you Calvin posters can ding me all you want!

The quote I saw in the paper is that for the regular season games there are normally 4 campus security officers on duty.  Saturday there were 2 (plus 1 campus police officer) because the crowd was smaller than normal.  They are already planning on adding security in each of the 4 tunnels for next year's regular season game, according to Calvin's AD.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

OK, so I ran the Massey numbers and it came out better than I expected. We're looking at about an 11% chance of Calvin winning and being the only host candidate within 500 miles of the other three possible sectional teams (if I have it right). And since Calvin is a 22% chance to win their pod, that means about 50% of the scenarios with them winning have this playing out.

I'm thinking it doesn't matter who comes out of the Augustana pod, Calvin (obviously) has to come out of the Mount Union pod, UW-Whitewater or Defiance have to come out of the UWW pod, and either Marietta or Medaille out of the Marietta pod (the only exception to this is it can't be DePauw, Defiance, and Marietta with Calvin, but this particular scenario is like 0.1%).

Keenly aware that I'm quite literally the only one interested in that brief probabilistic discussion.

If your scenarios and Google Maps data are correct, my probabilities agree with yours--I came up with 11.5%.

Incredibly, Massey probabilities also indicate a small but non-zero probability that, despite the collective efforts of Campus Safety, plainclothes security detail, Calvin's umbrella liability insurance provider, "senior leadership", Mlive, ESPN, the NCAA, GRPD, Jim Timmer, sac, and that giant rastafarian banana, a visiting player will still suffer some sort of trampling-related trauma as the Knights advance to Salem.

[bballfan13]

Can someone give me a quick description of how you come up with the percentages of a team advancing from a pod based on Massey?

[Grutte Dirk]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament? If so, when?

[Grutte Dirk]

We're looking at about an 11% chance of Calvin winning... 22% chance to win their pod, that means about 50% of the scenarios with them winning have this playing out... is like 0.1%).

I came up with 11.5%.

Incredibly, Massey probabilities also indicate a small but non-zero probability that, despite the collective efforts of Campus Safety, plainclothes security detail, Calvin's umbrella liability insurance provider, "senior leadership", Mlive, ESPN, the NCAA, GRPD, Jim Timmer, sac, and that giant rastafarian banana, a visiting player will still suffer some sort of trampling-related trauma as the Knights advance to Salem.

I also see a 100% chance that Hope or Calvin students will be rushing the floor next time someone drains a last second game winner after the other team had all the available hay-in-the-barn with five minutes left. I cannot guess how many security officers would be needed to stem that flow.

The fans must stay away from the players from the losing side.

[Knight Hawk]

Can someone give me a quick description of how you come up with the percentages of a team advancing from a pod based on Massey?

Assuming one does it by hand, it would become quite tedious the more complex a scenario one considers as you have to multiply the probabilities of all possible scenarios for a desired outcome.  For the sake of relevance:

Neumann @ Mt. Union (5% and 95% chances of winning according to Massey, respectively)
Calvin vs. Oswego St. (69% and 31%)

The chances of Calvin winning the pod are: [0.69 (Calvin's likelihood of beating Oswego St.) * 0.29 (Calvin beating Mt. Union @ Mt. Union) * 0.95 (probability of Mt. Union beating Neumann)] + [0.69 (Calvin over Oswego St.) * 0.87 (Calvin over Neumann) * 0.05 (Neumann over Mt. Union)] = 22.0%

The same rationale applies for each school.

[KnightSlappy]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament? If so, when?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

[KnightSlappy]

Can someone give me a quick description of how you come up with the percentages of a team advancing from a pod based on Massey?

Assuming one does it by hand, it would become quite tedious the more complex a scenario one considers as you have to multiply the probabilities of all possible scenarios for a desired outcome.  For the sake of relevance:

Neumann @ Mt. Union (5% and 95% chances of winning according to Massey, respectively)
Calvin vs. Oswego St. (69% and 31%)

The chances of Calvin winning the pod are: [0.69 (Calvin's likelihood of beating Oswego St.) * 0.29 (Calvin beating Mt. Union @ Mt. Union) * 0.95 (probability of Mt. Union beating Neumann)] + [0.69 (Calvin over Oswego St.) * 0.87 (Calvin over Neumann) * 0.05 (Neumann over Mt. Union)] = 22.0%

The same rationale applies for each school.

Here's the link to Massey's matchup tool. Enter any two schools along with location.

http://masseyratings.com/game.php?s=cb2015&sub=11620

Here's Calvin having a 1% chance of winning at Crisler Arena.

http://masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=267615&t0=Calvin&h=-1&s1=267615&t1=Michigan