MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[bballfan13]

Can someone give me a quick description of how you come up with the percentages of a team advancing from a pod based on Massey?

Assuming one does it by hand, it would become quite tedious the more complex a scenario one considers as you have to multiply the probabilities of all possible scenarios for a desired outcome.  For the sake of relevance:

Neumann @ Mt. Union (5% and 95% chances of winning according to Massey, respectively)
Calvin vs. Oswego St. (69% and 31%)

The chances of Calvin winning the pod are: [0.69 (Calvin's likelihood of beating Oswego St.) * 0.29 (Calvin beating Mt. Union @ Mt. Union) * 0.95 (probability of Mt. Union beating Neumann)] + [0.69 (Calvin over Oswego St.) * 0.87 (Calvin over Neumann) * 0.05 (Neumann over Mt. Union)] = 22.0%

The same rationale applies for each school.

Here's the link to Massey's matchup tool. Enter any two schools along with location.

http://masseyratings.com/game.php?s=cb2015&sub=11620

Here's Calvin having a 1% chance of winning at Crisler Arena.

http://masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=267615&t0=Calvin&h=-1&s1=267615&t1=Michigan

Thank you both!

[knightvision]

I wasn't at the game (fortunately), so I won't comment on it. I did recall that the court-storming issue had come up before after Hope students had stormed the court after a victory at Calvin (in January of '08). At the time I expressed concerns about safety and the appropriateness of the act. For holding this position, I was roundly pilloried by ... my fellow Hope fans, who heaped a good deal of invective on me for having the temerity to suggest that it is precisely when people are most riled up that restraint is most needed. You can look up their comments yourself, but some of the harshest criticisms of me then were made by persons expressing concern now. [NB: sac was not one of them.]

There are few things in life to be feared more than a mob, especially when that mob has taken leave of its senses, which may be aided by too much alcohol. I love basketball. I love the rivalry. But some perspective is needed here. I've gotten to know a lot of the posters on this board and have found all of them to be decent, likable people. I've even become friends with a few people I've met from posting. I hate to see this board turn ugly, which (like politics) often happens because we wear blinders.

Maybe I'm motivated by an "I told you so" kind of impulse, but really I'd like to have all of us put aside our Maroon-and-Gold or Orange-and-Blue glasses a second and realize that losing a basketball game is not the worst thing that happens to us in this world, and winning one is not the best. (I guess I've mixed my metaphors there, but I'll let it stand.) If Hope and Calvin students don't get that and behave reprehensibly, then our institutions have failed at a fundamental level. I can say this: if I witnessed a Hope student talk to the parent of a Calvin player (or anyone, for that matter) that way, he or she would be getting an earful from me.

My pomposity will now take the rest of the night off.

A timely post--thanks HC!

Loving history and having some time on my hands tonight, I went digging to find HC's history lesson.  For any others so inclined, it starts on page 942, and I'd highly recommend taking a few minutes to read through the thread.  History does appear to have a way of repeating itself, both in terms of events and our reactions to those events--particularly depending on, as HC notes, the color of our glasses.  We are all a pretty predictable bunch!

I've vacillated from incredulity, periodic laughter, and more than a little dismay over the last 48 hours reading the posts on here.  The comments of many, along with my increasingly frequent visits to the board to catch the latest exchanges, have again reminded me of the T in TULIP--my own, and ours collectively.  We are quite a lot when our emotions get the best of us, and in combo with our respective glasses, the court storming was somewhere on a continuum from a whisker short of disaster to sour grapes brought up by the losing side.  No matter your colors, hopefully we can all be grateful that cooler heads prevailed on Saturday evening.

What came to mind as I was thinking about court storming was my experience as a member of the "crowd control crew" in the 1980's when Calvin hosted the D3 National Championships.  A number of us were stationed around the court near the end of the championship game with rope ready, and immediately upon the conclusion of the game we stepped onto the edge of the floor and cordoned it off from fans.  In retrospect, I'm pretty sure that our ability to keep fans off the court had more to do with our very noticeable presence than the impenetrable barrier formed by 1/4" nylon rope held waist high.  I'm certain it wasn't my guns, because that was still in the day when the prevailing wisdom was that weightlifting screwed up your shot 

If you're interested in further reading on the topic, some a bit lighthearted, and some quite serious, here you go:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2015/02/25/just-stop-with-the-court-storming-rules/
(Don't miss the counterpoint article embedded within-- it includes an interesting concept of allowing it but managing it...)

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2015/02/25/358578.htm

I have an extraordinarily high degree of confidence that our two fine institutions will address this issue thoroughly and well.  And I'm hoping that the next time I hear about "taking the court by storm" it will be a snide remark from goodknight deriding oldknight for the pomp and circumstance that typically accompanies our resident barrister when he unexpectedly enters the court. 

[Grutte Dirk]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

Yikes. To continue my streak of simplemendedness... how does one pull that off? Everyone wins all non-conference? Regular season 4th place team wins league tourney? Has the MIAA ever pull three in?

[gobash83]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament? If so, when?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

NCAC also has three in this year as well (DePauw, OWU, and Wooster).

[northb]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

Yikes. To continue my streak of simplemendedness... how does one pull that off? Everyone wins all non-conference? Regular season 4th place team wins league tourney? Has the MIAA ever pull three in?

From a quick review of the MIAA website, it does not appear so.

http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/all-time/mbkbncaa

[northb]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

Yikes. To continue my streak of simplemendedness... how does one pull that off? Everyone wins all non-conference? Regular season 4th place team wins league tourney? Has the MIAA ever pull three in?

In regard to how a conference gets multiple teams in, there are specific criteria by which the field is selected. In a strong conference, there will be an automatic qualifier, usually the winner to the conference tournament.  In each region, the rest of the ranked teams then go, successively, to "the table."  The best remaining team in each region is compared to the teams in the other regions, and the best is selected.  Then the next "round" has the next highest ranked team from that region "on the table," which could be from that same conference, depending on rankings.  One conference may have multiple ranked teams, since the criteria are not just wins and losses.  If it were, a strong, balanced conference would be penalized for beating up on each other.  That strong conference actually gets an advantage, as the criteria include what your team's strength of schedule (SOS) is, as well as results against other regionally ranked teams, so playing better teams, even with losses, improves your chances.  But strong wins are better yet.     

[Mr. Ypsi]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

Yikes. To continue my streak of simplemendedness... how does one pull that off? Everyone wins all non-conference? Regular season 4th place team wins league tourney? Has the MIAA ever pull three in?

From a quick review of the MIAA website, it does not appear so.

http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/all-time/mbkbncaa

I thought they did back when Albion was strong, but maybe Hope or Calvin was a 'just missed' bubble team?

[KnightSlappy]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

Yikes. To continue my streak of simplemendedness... how does one pull that off? Everyone wins all non-conference? Regular season 4th place team wins league tourney? Has the MIAA ever pull three in?

From a quick review of the MIAA website, it does not appear so.

http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/all-time/mbkbncaa

I thought they did back when Albion was strong, but maybe Hope or Calvin was a 'just missed' bubble team?

Albion and Hope made it in '98 and Albion and Calvin made it in '05

MIAA got two teams in each year from '05 to '08, but never three.

[iwumichigander]

Has NCAA D3 seen three teams from the same conference make the tournament?

OAC, NEWMAC, and CCIW each have three this year. NESCAC has four.

Yikes. To continue my streak of simplemendedness... how does one pull that off? Everyone wins all non-conference? Regular season 4th place team wins league tourney? Has the MIAA ever pull three in?

In regard to how a conference gets multiple teams in, there are specific criteria by which the field is selected. In a strong conference, there will be an automatic qualifier, usually the winner to the conference tournament.  In each region, the rest of the ranked teams then go, successively, to "the table."  The best remaining team in each region is compared to the teams in the other regions, and the best is selected.  Then the next "round" has the next highest ranked team from that region "on the table," which could be from that same conference, depending on rankings.  One conference may have multiple ranked teams, since the criteria are not just wins and losses.  If it were, a strong, balanced conference would be penalized for beating up on each other.  That strong conference actually gets an advantage, as the criteria include what your team's strength of schedule (SOS) is, as well as results against other regionally ranked teams, so playing better teams, even with losses, improves your chances.  But strong wins are better yet.   

Things that help a conference get multiple teams in -
Non-conference: try to schedule strong teams with histories of high W% and SoS; it also helps with histories of getting ranked (Note: sometimes this does backfire on you if a team with a history has a bad year)
Conference - Protect home court, win the games you should win, try for a least splits with strongest teams, if you can not win regular season conference at least get into conference tournament and win one, and it really helps if your conference has ranked teams. 

For example, this year CCIW had four ranked teams.  All four made it into conference tournament.  And, all four played one or more ranked teams in non-conference.  So you end up with four teams with a .667 or higher W%, high SoS and better vRRO numbers and results  than most D3 teams. 

And, you need a little luck.  For example, you want higher regional ranked teams to take care of business and win their conference AQ so they come off the ranked teams.  Otherwise, they burst some bodies bubble and it could be your team's bubble! Your team moves up to get at the table sooner than later which positions you to have a better chance of getting a Pool C.

[almcguirejr]

I wonder if KVS will sit his best player for 7 playing minutes in the second half while Hope goes on a 10-0 run. Seemed like a good idea in the first half. Oh wait, he pre-sets his subbing rotation before the game even starts, an even better idea.

You're blaming KVS for something that was really difficult for a coach to control.  Jordan Brink went to the bench at 8:08 with Calvin trailing 22-18. There was uninterrupted play from the 5:40 mark to the 3:21 mark. Brink and Austin Parks were sent to the scorers table at the 5:10 mark and Calvin trailing 26-20.  The whistle to stop play was at the 3:21 mark. Brink, Parks, and Tyler Dykstra entered the game at this point. Calvin was now trailing 34-20. Hope had gone on an 8-0 run while Brink was at the table. My brother noticed this at the game and the video shows it clearly.  Calvin had already used 2 time outs, should KVS have used a time out to get Brink and the others into the game? In hindsight, maybe.  But, you hate to waste a time out if you believe a whistle is coming.  Brink did not sit out 7 minutes of playing time, it was 5.  KVS was trying to make it 3 but circumstances stretched it out.

[oldknight]

As only he can do, Knightslappy takes a statistical and unbiased view of the Mount Union pod.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/

[MaroonKnighty]

Did I really just read a 2 1/2 page philosophical debate about should we or shouldn't we rush the court?  ............by the WINNING team.

Every Hope Calvin game thats ended with a last second win with a made or missed shot has ended with students on the floor, and good for them.  As someone who's watched Calvin fans celebrate with those kinds of wins way to many times, it warms my heart to know my last memory of Calvin's Fieldhouse may be the Dew Crew jumping up and down in celebration of a hard fought Hope victory.


I think my goal for the Hope/Calvin rivalry is to have a game like Albion/John Carroll had where both sets of fans rush the court thinking they'd won, and I wander around aimlessly wondering what the heck I just missed.

Priceless!

[ziggy]

Mount Union has their tournament info page up and running, including video links: http://athletics.mountunion.edu/sports/mbkb/2014-15/ncaa_tournament_central

[almcguirejr]

Did I really just read a 2 1/2 page philosophical debate about should we or shouldn't we rush the court?  ............by the WINNING team.

Every Hope Calvin game thats ended with a last second win with a made or missed shot has ended with students on the floor, and good for them.  As someone who's watched Calvin fans celebrate with those kinds of wins way to many times, it warms my heart to know my last memory of Calvin's Fieldhouse may be the Dew Crew jumping up and down in celebration of a hard fought Hope victory.


I think my goal for the Hope/Calvin rivalry is to have a game like Albion/John Carroll had where both sets of fans rush the court thinking they'd won, and I wander around aimlessly wondering what the heck I just missed.

Priceless!

That deserves a Tim Russert award.  I loved watching him and he is missed. He was the master of pointing out contradictory quotes.

[Knightmare]

The final celebration notwithstanding I was glad to actually be in the GR area and see the game in person.  Doesn't happen too often anymore with living in Traverse City now.  An excellent game to bring my kids to for their first ever Calvin experience.