MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[oldknight]

Last night wasn't particularly kind to our Calvin hosting odds. Here's what we need today to make that happen.

It's going to be a very tough game with Mount Union. Calvin can't let them fire at will from long range. Obviously looking for a Knights win.

Augustana has to beat DePauw. A win by our Great Lakes friends would mean the pod would shift to the Marietta/Wooster winner without question.

Defiance has to beat St. Olaf. The Oles can't bus to Grand Rapids, so we'd be looking at a scenario with a forced flight.

Marietta has to beat Wooster (I think). Wooster to Augustana is listed as 500.0 miles on the NCAA's site. I'm not sure if that means a bus is OK or not, but I do know that Marietta is over 500 miles to Augustana.

Augustana (83%)
Calvin (29%)
Defiance (31%)
Marietta (69%)

I think that's our only chance, and it's down to 5%. But of course we can't take a win for granted. According to Massey, only DePauw is a bigger underdog in this quadrant today.

KS--as usual--lays out the metrics with irrefutably Vulcan-like Spockian logic. The only realistic formula for Calvin hosting would appear to be the four winners he puts down in his post. But I'm wondering if there is an outside chance for Calvin hosting if the winners are as follows:

Augustana
Calvin
St. Olaf
Marietta

If those are the winners tonight, the only two schools that could host without more than one NCAA sponsored flight among the foursome would be Augustana and Calvin. Since Augustana is the higher rated team, they would seem to be the obvious choice. However, does the overall cost of flying teams come into play when the NCAA makes its decision? I assume if St Olaf flies to Grand Rapids they would take off from Minneapolis-St. Paul and flights between those two cities are frequent. Flying Marietta (from wherever) to Rock Island probably would be a lot pricier so if the total cost is a consideration for the NCAA, Calvin might slip in

[KnightSlappy]

Last night wasn't particularly kind to our Calvin hosting odds. Here's what we need today to make that happen.

It's going to be a very tough game with Mount Union. Calvin can't let them fire at will from long range. Obviously looking for a Knights win.

Augustana has to beat DePauw. A win by our Great Lakes friends would mean the pod would shift to the Marietta/Wooster winner without question.

Defiance has to beat St. Olaf. The Oles can't bus to Grand Rapids, so we'd be looking at a scenario with a forced flight.

Marietta has to beat Wooster (I think). Wooster to Augustana is listed as 500.0 miles on the NCAA's site. I'm not sure if that means a bus is OK or not, but I do know that Marietta is over 500 miles to Augustana.

Augustana (83%)
Calvin (29%)
Defiance (31%)
Marietta (69%)

I think that's our only chance, and it's down to 5%. But of course we can't take a win for granted. According to Massey, only DePauw is a bigger underdog in this quadrant today.

KS--as usual--lays out the metrics with irrefutably Vulcan-like Spockian logic. The only realistic formula for Calvin hosting would appear to be the four winners he puts down in his post. But I'm wondering if there is an outside chance for Calvin hosting if the winners are as follows:

Augustana
Calvin
St. Olaf
Marietta

If those are the winners tonight, the only two schools that could host without more than one NCAA sponsored flight among the foursome would be Augustana and Calvin. Since Augustana is the higher rated team, they would seem to be the obvious choice. However, does the overall cost of flying teams come into play when the NCAA makes its decision? I assume if St Olaf flies to Grand Rapids they would take off from Minneapolis-St. Paul and flights between those two cities are frequent. Flying Marietta (from wherever) to Rock Island probably would be a lot pricier so if the total cost is a consideration for the NCAA, Calvin might slip in

That's possible. I know the NCAA is being very cost conscious these days due to the Division III budget shortfall.

Dave McHugh mentioned on another board that the 500.0 Wooster-to-Augustana trip would require a flight, so it doesn't matter who wins the Wooster/Marietta game, looks like. That ups the odds to 7.5%!

[oldknight]

Tip of the hat to TitanQ who provides this on the CCIW board:

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The Site Selection section is on pages 19-20...

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamps_DIII_MBasketball_2015_Revised3.pdf

The Championships Committee has prioritized the following site-selection criteria for all championships:
1. Complete bid;
2. Quality and availability of the facility and other necessary accommodations;
3. Geographical location (which may include such factors as rotation of sites, weather, accessibility and transportation costs);
4. Seeding; and
5. Attendance history, hosting history and revenue potential, which shall be considered necessary to assure fiscal responsibility.

In addition, the Men's Basketball Committee requires each host to record all contests at its site, with the intent to make available to each team a copy (DVD format) of the contest in which it participated. The committee also prefers sites that will not host conflicting events during the championship practice and competition. Sites will also be evaluated as to the availability of appropriate practice times for all competing teams. To host first-round, second-round or sectional contests, a regulation court as defined in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 NCAA Men's Basketball rules and Interpretations must be used. To host sectional competition, arena seating for at least 1,000 spectators is required. Please also review the host operations Manual for a detailed list of facility requirements.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

A lot in there that favors Calvin even if seeding isn't one of them. It would help their chances immeasurably if the Knights would beat Mount Union.

[wolverinekeith]

Mt Union is a really interesting matchup for Calvin.  Without watching any tape, they're not huge (6'5, 6'4, 6'4, 6'2, 5'11) and their bigs shoot really well.

Stout isn't the most mobile guy, so I wonder if Calvin goes with a little more athletic big man to chase the MU bigs around the perimeter.  That said, it also may be an opportunity to pound the ball inside on offense, especially as MU doesn't appear to be very deep (6'3 G is the biggest bench player to get more than 10 minutes in the blowout last night).  If Calvin can get Ruffin (or Griffin) into foul trouble, that could dramatically change MU's approach, and especially their ability to handle Calvin inside. 

Going to need a big defensive night from Tyler Dykstra.  Get those long arms in the face of a shooter. 

[oldknight]

Mt Union is a really interesting matchup for Calvin.  Without watching any tape, they're not huge (6'5, 6'4, 6'4, 6'2, 5'11) and their bigs shoot really well.

Stout isn't the most mobile guy, so I wonder if Calvin goes with a little more athletic big man to chase the MU bigs around the perimeter.  That said, it also may be an opportunity to pound the ball inside on offense, especially as MU doesn't appear to be very deep (6'3 G is the biggest bench player to get more than 10 minutes in the blowout last night).  If Calvin can get Ruffin (or Griffin) into foul trouble, that could dramatically change MU's approach, and especially their ability to handle Calvin inside. 

Going to need a big defensive night from Tyler Dykstra.  Get those long arms in the face of a shooter.

Agreed about Dykstra. Something tells me TJ Huizenga may play a big role tonight. He's an excellent perimeter defender and a good rebounder, especially those loose ball rebounds that are so common when your opponent shoots a lot of threes.

[almcguirejr]

MU has played 29 games.  They have been held under 80, 5 times.

[arena]

It's almost as if calvin's opponent knows where the ball is being passed before Calvin knows where it's going to pass

[MaroonKnighty]

Calvin was down by 19 and goes on a little run to close the gap to 8 at the half.  Need to make some adjustments.  GO KNIGHTS!

[knight4life]

Brink needs to have a very large second half for Calvin to have a chance to win.
How about that zone kvs has been using?!

[MaroonKnighty]

Brink is cold and Mt. Union is 47% from 3 point land

[MaroonKnighty]

the hay is in the barn....

[MaroonKnighty]

Calvin loses 69-81.  Daley played great tonight.  While Brink was a little flat tonight we sure are going to miss him next year.  Congrats to the Knights on a great season.
I really want to try one of those hot dogs at Mt. Union.

[KnightSlappy]

Just tough to beat a team who's going to shoot like that. Every time Calvin cut the lead down to 5 or 6 Mount Union would respond with a three pointer or two to extend it back to double figures.

Not a great shooting night for Jordan Brink; the Mount Union defense had him blanketed all night, and the looks he did have were hurried and wouldn't fall. Nice games from Daley and Parks though.

Fun season.

[ziggy]

Mount Union's three point shooting was really the story of the game and they will be a tough out as long as they shoot like they did tonight. 7 different Purple Raiders made three pointers tonight, with eight players combining to go 14-30 (46.7%) from long range. And I do mean long range as a number of attempts (and makes) were from a step or two behind the arc.

They hit a three ball every time Calvin was able to get the lead down to five or six - often back to back to quickly push it back to double digits. It is interesting to compare the box scores from tonight and Mount Union's December game at Hope. There are a lot of similarities, with the Purple Raiders' effectiveness from three being a very noticeable exception (7-33, 21.2%).

Tough way for Jordan Brink to go out; 5 points on 2-11 shooting.

[wiz]

Jordan's legacy will not be defined by this single game.  We will miss him and the other seniors (Dykstra, Huizenga, Stout) tremendously. 
Already looking to the future and can't stop  thinking about those comparisons that oldnight made between Brink and Vanderbrug after their freshman years.