MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[HOPEful]

I'm convinced Massey can't actually figure out how to handle the quirks of NCAA basketball in terms of games that do or don't count and other facets. That is why I am always cautious whenever looking at Massey - which I don't even do seriously until mid-January at the earliest.

I agree and my original post was intended to be VERY tongue and cheek. Even the most ardent Hope fans will admit that is too high for today. Now if they win their next 5 games (particularly against Cornerstone this weekend and @ John Carroll)... we can revisit this discussion.

That being said, I think Massey is still a useful tool with obvious limitations. However, human polls (d3hoops.com) have argueably equal, but different limitations.

They're both tools that I spend way too much time sifting though while I should be doing something more productive

[pointlem]

I'm convinced Massey can't actually figure out how to handle the quirks of NCAA basketball in terms of games that do or don't count and other facets. That is why I am always cautious whenever looking at Massey - which I don't even do seriously until mid-January at the earliest.

Polls (both computer and human) are notoriously inaccurate with only a couple of games' worth of data to go on. You either get large variations from week to week or you build in knowledge about how good the teams were last year--which of course is more stable but also inaccurate. 

Massey builds in data from last year, which is completely gone by the end of the season. However, Massey gives us some information that suggests how accurate the ranking would be just using the games of the current season.

Massey has previously published that the standard deviation of their game predictions is about 11 points. (If Team A is supposed to beat Team B by 15, then 68% of the time Team A will win by between 4 and 26 points.)

Massey's power rating is more or less how much a team would beat an average opponent by. It's roughly the average of a rating for each game, so it gets more accurate as more games are played--the standard deviation declines by the square root of the number of games played.

Picture it this way. If Massey says that a team has power that makes it the 25th best team, namely 7.6, there is error in that estimate that goes down as more games are played. If only one game has been played, then 68% of the time the team's true power is in the range -3.4 to 18.6. If 25 games have been played, the true power is probably in the range 5.4 to 9.8.

Here's how it currently works out for a team ranked #25: if the ranking is based on 1 game, the team's true ranking is likely in the range 1-213. If the ranking is based on 4 games, 6-84. If based on 25 games, 13-40.

Games played	Power stdev	Likely true rank
1	11	1-213
4	5.5	3-120
9	3.7	6-84
16	2.8	9-51
25	2.2	13-40

As you can see, even by the end of a season Massey's ranking should be understood to be within a few places.

Still, it's sometimes fun to say something like this: Last week, Hope played the way the #4 team in the country would be expected to play. (Or, more accurately, the way the #1 team would be expected to play.)

Kudos, DarkKnight . . . interesting and well-explained.

[KnightSlappy]

I'm convinced Massey can't actually figure out how to handle the quirks of NCAA basketball in terms of games that do or don't count and other facets. That is why I am always cautious whenever looking at Massey - which I don't even do seriously until mid-January at the earliest.

Polls (both computer and human) are notoriously inaccurate with only a couple of games' worth of data to go on. You either get large variations from week to week or you build in knowledge about how good the teams were last year--which of course is more stable but also inaccurate. 

Massey builds in data from last year, which is completely gone by the end of the season. However, Massey gives us some information that suggests how accurate the ranking would be just using the games of the current season.

Massey has previously published that the standard deviation of their game predictions is about 11 points. (If Team A is supposed to beat Team B by 15, then 68% of the time Team A will win by between 4 and 26 points.)

Massey's power rating is more or less how much a team would beat an average opponent by. It's roughly the average of a rating for each game, so it gets more accurate as more games are played--the standard deviation declines by the square root of the number of games played.

Picture it this way. If Massey says that a team has power that makes it the 25th best team, namely 7.6, there is error in that estimate that goes down as more games are played. If only one game has been played, then 68% of the time the team's true power is in the range -3.4 to 18.6. If 25 games have been played, the true power is probably in the range 5.4 to 9.8.

Here's how it currently works out for a team ranked #25: if the ranking is based on 1 game, the team's true ranking is likely in the range 1-213. If the ranking is based on 4 games, 6-84. If based on 25 games, 13-40.

Games played	Power stdev	Likely true rank
1	11	1-213
4	5.5	3-120
9	3.7	6-84
16	2.8	9-51
25	2.2	13-40

As you can see, even by the end of a season Massey's ranking should be understood to be within a few places.

Still, it's sometimes fun to say something like this: Last week, Hope played the way the #4 team in the country would be expected to play. (Or, more accurately, the way the #1 team would be expected to play.)

Kudos, DarkKnight . . . interesting and well-explained.

Seconded. +k

[TUAngola]

Trine with road win at Manchester last night.  Will Dixon with 31 pts, 6 pts away from 1400 for career.  Freshman Langston Johnson with first start, big spark for the Thunder, finished with 21 pts hitting 6-7 from 3 pt range.  Ellis Cummings with double/double.  Coach Miller continuing to tinker with lineups, thru 4 games no 2 have been alike.  2 observations, Kreglow didn't start and Harrington didn't play at all.  Back to a short rotation favored by Coach...only 8 guys with meaningful minutes.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

[maroonandgold]

What happened to Alma last night?  Is North Central that good, or did Alma just have a poor night?

[oldknight]

What happened to Alma last night?  Is North Central that good, or did Alma just have a poor night?

The Cardinals are very good, picked to win the CCIW this season. It's just not realistic to expect Alma to beat NCC in Naperville (nor even at Alma) given the losses the Scots have suffered since last year. The Scots can't lose players the quality of Nikodemski, two Beckmans, Bradfield and Gamble, and beat a team as good as the CCIW conference favorite.

[devossed]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights ... It's not just a Calvin issue."

I mentioned this morning to a parent of one the two H.C. grads who now start for Cornerstone that her son was mentioned on D3 Hoops. We discussed the posting, and her words were 'ABSOLUTELY he'd be at Calvin if Calvin gave athletic scholarships and he more than likely would be at Calvin without the Cornerstone (or a similar offer). I don't think anyone doubts this or is surprised by it, but at least in this one case, there's no doubt that this is the case.  Maybe, just maybe, Calvin will REALLY make him  wish he was playing for Calvin (tongue in cheek).

I am pretty sure there are a few players on the cornerstone roster that would say the same thing about Hope. It is unfortunate that the rise in NAIA $$ has taken talent away from the MIAA the past few years.

Besides the money issue, another problem D3 coaches could run into when contending with NAIA programs for the same talent, is the fact that NAIA recruitment is basically without meaningful standards. The NCAA doesn't allow coaches to contact or talk to recruits 24/7, 365 days a year like NAIA coaches are free to do, and may leave prepsters and their families with the false impression that the D3 program their kid is considering just isn't as interested as the NAIA school.

Actually in Division III there aren't many restrictions outside of when they can start talking to players which has been allowed recently to start earlier (halfway through their high school junior year, I believe). Division I and maybe Division II have recruiting calendars with times when coaches have to stay off the recruiting trails. In Division III, there is no such calendar for a variety of reasons. There are other standards and restrictions, but recruiting is one that hasn't been restricted outside of when they can start.

One big exception to that generality seems to be the use of social media for D3 coaches, at least by MIAA administrative interpretations over the last year.

I've heard Coach Mitchell (and some other assistants at other league schools) talk publicly about the NCAA / MIAA now not allowing D3 coaches to "follow" a recruit, or "like/retweet" their postings (or whatever the specific terminology is for each different app like Twitter, insta, Facebook, etc)...which is NOT restricted the same way with D1, D2, or especially NAIA protocol.

In other separate discussions with D1/D2/NAIA people, multiple times they've confirmed the perplexing nature of such D3 limits - wondering how they even would begin to recruit some of these kids (example "that's the ONLY way I communicate with them these days. They don't talk on the phone, and are texting less and less")

This is very interesting to me, what with the D3 mantra of "student-athlete's best interests" and all.

[iwumichigander]

What happened to Alma last night?  Is North Central that good, or did Alma just have a poor night?

The Cardinals are very good, picked to win the CCIW this season. It's just not realistic to expect Alma to beat NCC in Naperville (nor even at Alma) given the losses the Scots have suffered since last year. The Scots can't lose players the quality of Nikodemski, two Beckmans, Bradfield and Gamble, and beat a team as good as the CCIW conference favorite.

yep, North Central is that good even with the seniors lost to graduation.  Cardinals also reloaded with incoming freshmen and I think at least one transfer.  CCIW coaches picked North Central for first place.  This is one of the times, we CCIW posters think the coaches have the first place pick right.

[Winifred Durfee]

If you can't make it to Devos this weekend, we're streaming all four games of the Grand Rapids Sports Hall of Fame Classic. Here are the links for easy access:

Calvin vs. Cornerstone, 6pm Friday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajht1M9tGDk

Hope vs. AQ, 8pm Friday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcdQyThoadk

Calvin vs. AQ, 6pm Saturday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IYaucWli5Q

Hope vs. Cornerstone, 8pm Saturday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUJ63W9CcjU

[realist]

CU 42: Calvin 27:  Wait for it..............................

[realist]

CU   83  Calvin: 55     Is there really any need to say anything?

[goodknight]

You could say that it was hard to watch.

[oldknight]

CU   83  Calvin: 55     Is there really any need to say anything?

Well, if the answer to that question is no, then don't bother to read the remainder of this post.

Other than a 54 point second half explosion over a completely overmatched Finlandia quintet, Calvin has shown not a shred of offense this year. There is simply a dearth of scorers. Only Michael Welch (5-6 from the floor in 14 minutes) put any pressure Golden Eagle defenders tonight, and Michael has never been a serious threat on the offensive side of the ball. I had a good half time chat with the Best Man in my wedding of long ago, he a former all conference performer at Calvin. He noted two things, one that has long bothered me, and the other a point I had not considered before. Calvin frequently tries to enter the ball into the post from up top, always a tougher pass to successfully complete. By contrast, Cornerstone almost always made the entry pass from below the free throw line, a more favorable angle that much favors the team with the ball in my estimation. The other comment noted that while Calvin works on posting up pretty much any player on the team, Cornerstone pretty much limited their low post touches to two players--Steigenga and VanderSluis. Everyone else reacted to those two players' low post presence. It's an old fashioned way to run your offense but simpler to run. Of course, Cornerstone has perimeter players who can hit the three. Calvin has . . . .

Other game notes:

--Austin Bykerk hit a triple on Calvin's first possession. He then pretty much disappeared until making four meaningless free throws late in the game. Austin only took three shots in 22 minutes and that dog won't hunt. I don't get it.

--Mike Siegel was the most recent experiment at the 2 guard spot. He went 1-7 in 20 minutes. No one seems to want to play that position this year. Your two guard needs to be one of the most dangerous players on the floor and Calvin seems to have no one on the roster who can play that position.

--Kyle Steigenga's uncle and former Spartan great, Matt Steigenga, was in the house. He's a bigger man than I remember him being.

[Grutte Dirk]

It is unfortunate that the rise in NAIA $$ has taken talent away from the MIAA the past few years.

And a nationwide lack of parent commitment to academics and the intellectual growth of their child.

[calvin_grad]

At least we've got volleyball and soccer.