MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Grutte Dirk]

Michael Welch was named MIAA Player of the Week.

Interesting what can happen when you don't put a player on the bench just because he picked up a foul more than you would like.

[pointlem]

Is this the year Calvin and Hope meet in Salem with the National Championship on the line? I think probably yes.

The full tournament bracket is now up on the Massey Ratings site.
http://www.masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=832

(women too: http://www.masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=833)

Okay, KnightSlappy . . . do the numbers on the estimated odds of that Hope v Calvin national championship game, followed by HopeConvert's treating us to Russ's twin burgers and carrot cake once we're back home.  If Hope has a 2% chance of making it to and winning the semi final game and Calvin a .05% chance . . . then is that a .02 x .0005 =.00001 (i.e., a 1 in 10,000 likelihood)?

P.S. A tip of the hat to Kenneth Massey for all the DIII data he collects and organizes. I see that he's a math professor at Carson-Newman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey

[oldknight]

Here are the Massey win probabilities for the two MIAA pods, with Massey rank in parenthesis:

                   1st Rd   2nd Rd
(  6) Marietta     91%      78%
( 72) Calvin       10%      4%
( 33) Guilford     77%      17%
(147) Thomas More  23%      2%

                   1st Rd   2nd Rd
( 23) Hope         40%      23%
(  9) UW-Oshkosh   60%      41%
( 11) Wash U       65%      26%
( 44) Ripon        36%      10%


Hope's pod looks rather wide open.

Matt, where are you finding this info on the Massey site? None of the individual teams are showing upcoming scheduled games, and the playoff section of the Massey site doesn't include the 2017 D3 men's basketball tournament.

If you click on 'matchup' you can pair any two teams.

http://masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=292154&t0=duke&h=-1&s1=292154&t1=North+Park

LOL! Thanks!

The full tournament bracket is now up on the Massey Ratings site.

http://www.masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=832

(women too: http://www.masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=833)

Michael Welch was named MIAA Player of the Week.

Interesting what can happen when you don't put a player on the bench just because he picked up a foul more than you would like.

You guys are missing the SOTU.

[fantastic50]

A tip of the hat to Kenneth Massey for all the DIII data he collects and organizes. I see that he's a math professor at Carson-Newman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey

Ken is a down-to-earth, nice guy, who doesn't let on that he's the smartest person in the room.

[HopeConvert]

Michael Welch was named MIAA Player of the Week in men's basketball.

http://www.miaa.org/potw/2016-17/MIAA_POTW2017_0227

Interesting what can happen when you don't put a player on the bench just because he picked up a foul more than you would like.

Welch was whistled for his fourth foul with 16:33 left in the  game, yet still logged 14 minutes the second half. Mike played all of the last 9+ minutes of the game.  Canonie got his fourth foul with 5:06 left but KVS judged he needed his starting point guard and let him play the remainder of the game. Blackledge got his fourth with 6:38 left and sat for three minutes. I understand why Mitchell removed him at the time (I might have chosen the same) but I was more than happy to see the bruiser sit for a while.



Like I said, endlessly fascinating.

One of the problems here is that sitting a player is all-too-often not an exercise of judgment, but it's absence. Coaches aren't paying attention to the ebb and flow of the game. Rather, they operate reflexively. First half + two fouls = must sit. This seems to be an unquestioned reaction, a coaching algorithm. It's done out of habit, not rational decision-making. It drives me crazy, for reasons we've often discussed before. One of these days the advanced analytics will convince the coaches of the foolishness of this.

Fouling out is not the worst thing that can happen to a player or team. Having your best player play only 23 minutes is a worse thing. Welch played 5 minutes more of the game than Blackledge did, and that may have been the difference.

[KnightSlappy]

It's probably a good thing this board doesn't have hiring and firing power for MIAA coaches. 

[Flying Dutch Fan]

It's probably a good thing this board doesn't have hiring and firing power for MIAA coaches. 

Agreed  I'd much prefer that authority over officials, but I'm afraid we would end up with none 

[sac]

Really nice piece from FOX 17 on the Holland Civic Center which hosted its final game last night.
http://fox17online.com/2017/02/28/a-final-tribute-to-the-holland-civic-center/

I don't think I'll ever find a place quite like that one.  The kids today call it lit, the Civic was lit a lot.

[Pat Coleman]

Really nice piece from FOX 17 on the Holland Civic Center which hosted its final game last night.
http://fox17online.com/2017/02/28/a-final-tribute-to-the-holland-civic-center/

I don't think I'll ever find a place quite like that one.  The kids today call it lit, the Civic was lit a lot.

Glad I got to see one!

[GreatScot!?]

Really nice piece from FOX 17 on the Holland Civic Center which hosted its final game last night.
http://fox17online.com/2017/02/28/a-final-tribute-to-the-holland-civic-center/

I don't think I'll ever find a place quite like that one.  The kids today call it lit, the Civic was lit a lot.

I think I'm even too old to be using the term lit haha!

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Really nice piece from FOX 17 on the Holland Civic Center which hosted its final game last night.
http://fox17online.com/2017/02/28/a-final-tribute-to-the-holland-civic-center/

I don't think I'll ever find a place quite like that one.  The kids today call it lit, the Civic was lit a lot.

Fabulous piece indeed.  What great memories from that place

[sac]

Really nice piece from FOX 17 on the Holland Civic Center which hosted its final game last night.
http://fox17online.com/2017/02/28/a-final-tribute-to-the-holland-civic-center/

I don't think I'll ever find a place quite like that one.  The kids today call it lit, the Civic was lit a lot.

I think I'm even too old to be using the term lit haha!

Well, I'm sure we have different definitions of "kids" too. 

[sac]

Hope pod

Offensive efficiency or Points per possession
Hope  1.11
Oshkosh  1.06

WashU  1.11
Ripon   1.18

All of these are pretty inline with the average of most NCAA qualifying teams.  Oshkosh is a bit lower and plays in a pretty defensive and lower scoring league.


Deffensive efficiency
Hope  .987
Oshkosh  .985

WashU  .978
Ripon   1.02

.98 is getting pretty close to about the best you can do with the more offensive friendly rules.  You start getting lower than that I start wondering about level of competition more than defensive ability.


Pace or possessions per game
Hope  73.11
Oshkosh  65.75

WashU  72.79
Ripon  69.24

65 is about as slow as you can go since they monkeyed with the rules last year.  The games just faster now.  At 73 possession Hope is just about at the D3 average.


Four Factors

eFG%          Off             Def
Hope    53.3%         50.2
Oshkosh  52.9%     48.3%
WashU     52.2        49.1
Ripon      58.6%     48.2

Ripon can really score the ball man, and I even pulled out their Grinnell box scores.


Rebounding
          %Off rebounds   Opp%Off rebounds

Hope        32.4                32.1
Oshkosh  31.1                25.4

WashU     37.9                26.1
Ripon       33.6                29.4

WashU really gets after it on the offensive glass, while they and Oshkosh don't allow their opponents many 2nd chances.



FT Rate
Hope        35.3           32.7
Oshkosh  33.9           29.7
WashU      33.2          24.9
Ripon       32.4          26.2

Hope gets to the FT line a bit more but all 4 teams really do well here.  WashU keeps its opponents off the line


Turnover Rate or Turnover per possession
                      TO rate          Opp TO rate
Hope            16.87%           22.12
Oshkosh      19.88              17.29
WashU         16.27               18.72
Ripon           17.74              15.82

Both Oshkosh and Ripon come in with negative turnover rate margins,  Oshkosh has a pretty high rate for a winning record team.  Hope has been excellent at creating turnovers all year for a team that doesn't press a lot or run up and down the floor like most high turnover rate defenses.


WashU is certainly the highest seed and favorite to move on but this is a pretty well balanced pod I think even taking into consideration schedule differences.

[sac]

Marietta pod

Offensive efficiency or Points per possession
Marietta  1.16
Calvin      1.06

Thomas More  1.12
Guilford    1.06

Marietta is a very high scoring team, Thomas More is the surprise here.  Calvin's number is mostly pre-February offensive struggles I would imagine.  Guildford kind of struggles on offense.


Deffensive efficiency
Marietta  .984
Calvin     1.02

Thomas More  .987
Guilford   .929


.92 from Guilford is excellent with the caveat that while the ODAC is usually a pretty good conference it seemed to be down this year, I'm not sure how real this number is but I'm sure they're quite good on defense regardless.


Pace or possessions per game
Marietta  76.85
Calvin   69.7

Thomas More 69.95
Guilford  65.95

65 is about as slow as you can go since they monkeyed with the rules last year.  Marietta is an above average paced team.


Four Factors

eFG%          Off             Def
Marrieta            55.4           50.2
Calvin               47.8           51.0
Thomas More   53.8           48.2
Guilford            47.2            46.9

Guilford games are offensive struggle city for both squads.  Same mostly pre-February struggles for Calvin show up here as well.


Rebounding
          %Off rebounds   Opp%Off rebounds

Marietta   33.5                25.9
Calvin       36.6               24.2

Thomas More  33.7        27.0
Guilford           43.9        27.8

For reference around these parts that Guilford number is similar to Albion's last couple of teams with Trevelle Oakes and Calvin's two recent Sweet 16 teams.  43.9 is really hitting the offensive glass.  All 4 teams seem pretty good at keeping their opponent off the offensive glass, could be some great rebounding battles both nights.


FT Rate
Marrietta           33.6              27.4
Calvin               33.6              24.4
Thomas More   31.3              26.0
Guilford            34.8               22.5

All 4 teams are pretty good at getting to the line, and all 4 teams pretty good at not allowing their opponent to get to the line.  Guilford might be in national leader territory.


Turnover Rate or Turnover per possession
                      TO rate          Opp TO rate

Marietta            15.1                 19
Calvin               18.4                  15.94
Thomas More   16.75                16.63
Guilford            17.86                20.27


Calvin has a pretty solid negative turnover rate and they just don't create many.  Guilford and Marietta both are pretty good at creating turnovers while Marietta hangs onto the ball pretty well.


Marietta is the clear favorite to advance.  I heard some grumblings about seeds but I think these are correct.  Thomas More grades out quite well though the PAC isn't a very good conference.  Earlier this year I wasn't sure the MIAA was better though I think we snuck ahead later in the year.  I am curious how Thomas More will do against a team from a historically much stronger conference.

This pod is basically the clear Great Lakes #1 all year and OAC Champion against a conference co-champ from a conference with one bid and two upset winners of their conference AQ's.

[oldknight]

Really nice piece from FOX 17 on the Holland Civic Center which hosted its final game last night.
http://fox17online.com/2017/02/28/a-final-tribute-to-the-holland-civic-center/

I don't think I'll ever find a place quite like that one.  The kids today call it lit, the Civic was lit a lot.

Fabulous piece indeed.  What great memories from that place

The first high school game I ever played was against Holland Christian at the Civic. Having grown up watching several Calvin/Hope matchups there, I was thrilled to be able to compete on that particular piece of West Michigan hardwood. When I scored the opening basket on the first possession of the game (a give-and-go drive to the hoop), I was even more thrilled. I remember the play like it happened last night. Does that make it a lit?