MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[HopeConvert]

Less than 17 hours now....

[KnightSlappy]

I noticed that Kent Raymond hit 2,000 points this week so I checked Caleb's career numbers.  If my calculations are correct, he only needs 18 more for the 1,500 milestone.

[HopeConvert]

I don't know if any of you have been following the CCIW board, but Raymond apparently suffered a high-ankle sprain that may have a significant effect on the rest of his season and, by extension, Wheaton's. Those of us who saw him light up Whitworth (my apologies to one of our posters) last spring, as well as what he has done in the MIAA/CCIW challenge recognize him as a unique talent. Let's hope it's not too serious.

[sac]

At the time I post this the poll is 13- Calvin, 13 - Hope..........how odd!

[Mr. Ypsi]

I don't know if any of you have been following the CCIW board, but Raymond apparently suffered a high-ankle sprain that may have a significant effect on the rest of his season and, by extension, Wheaton's. Those of us who saw him light up Whitworth (my apologies to one of our posters) last spring, as well as what he has done in the MIAA/CCIW challenge recognize him as a unique talent. Let's hope it's not too serious.

I really, really hope it is a 'mild' high-ankle sprain (4-6 weeks), because the more severe ones would mean we'll never see him in d3 again (at least, no where near the 'real' Kent Raymond).  I check all the d3hoops boards (some more often than others ), and follow the national scene, and IMO he was odds-on for national POY.  It's a tribute to CCIW Chat posters that (even though this opens up the door for other teams) everyone is distraught at the loss.

Word is that a proper diagnosis can't happen until the swelling subsides, so it may be a week before we really know (and even then we can't know the individual variables - how 'fast' a healer is he?).

[Dark Knight]

I think I need a personal name for results of this spreadsheet, so, henceforth, TRISH = Team Rank Indicator spreadSHeet.

TRISH actually uses a relatively simple computation:
    Power = Average Margin of Victory + Average Opponent Power
Of course, you have to iterate this a few times until it settles down, since it is a recursive expression.

TRISH is not unlike Massey's MOV-based rating system, but it's not quite as elaborate. Massey does things like count more recent games more highly. TRISH is simply Pow = aMOV + oPow.

My little red flag started waving when I saw Hope's numbers went down when they beat Kalamazoo, and Kalamazoos number went up for losing. 

Hope was "supposed" to beat Kalamazoo 22 according to Trish. Since they won by 9, Hope went down and Kalamazoo went up. The difference in power between them is still more than the 9-point spread of the only face-to-face game they played.

Also, results of other games will affect a team's power rating. If prior opponents don't do as well as expected, that will also lower a team's power rating. So it's hard to identify all causes for a team's going up or down.

I see both of these metrics as fun, but seriously flawed.  For example, the Hope-Kazoo game Wednesday night could have been a blowout if Hope hadn't subbed so liberally, while Kazoo left its starters in.  The TRASH rating system is bereft of any means to account for this scenario.  With a coach like GVW, who appears to value big scoring margins well below simply getting a W, teams like Hope would tend to migrate toward being under-rated using the TRASH metrics. 

All computer ranking systems suffer from lacking the kinds of information people with a little knowledge of the circumstances can bring in. Is a key player injured? Did a coach pull the starters early? Your job, as fan, is to try to use that extra information in such a way that you can do better than the computer ranking system. It's not easy to do; systems like Massey often do better than NCAA seedings or d3hoops.com polls in prediction.

And although GVW pulled Hope's starters out early, they still ending up averaging 28 minutes apiece, to 27 for Calvin's starters against Adrian. Kalamazoo's starters only averaged 21!  ...What does that say about Hope's bench?

[oldknight]

I think I need a personal name for results of this spreadsheet, so, henceforth, TRISH = Team Rank Indicator spreadSHeet.

TRISH actually uses a relatively simple computation:
    Power = Average Margin of Victory + Average Opponent Power
Of course, you have to iterate this a few times until it settles down, since it is a recursive expression.

I'm pretty sure DK is the first poster in the history of d3hoops to make correct use of these terms in the same sentence.

+k. It should be double + k but the the suits at d3hoops have seriously flawed metrics that don't account for a blowout.

[dumezrules]

And although GVW pulled Hope's starters out early, they still ending up averaging 28 minutes apiece, to 27 for Calvin's starters against Adrian. Kalamazoo's starters only averaged 21!  ...What does that say about Hope's bench?

It says they dont play as much as Kazoo's  

I would play Hopes starters alot too....they are pretty doggone good.

[calvinite]

It didn't help Caleb either.  It was probably his worst rivalry game...

I'm not worried so much about the freshmen and 'inexperienced' players as I am about one very experienced player--and that player isn't Veldhouse (I'd be pleased to see Caleb match his numbers from the games of his freshman year). My concern is that 'other' experienced player who I'm praying doesn't exceed 10 times the number of points he scored his freshman year against Calvin in the 2 league games--something he's certainly capable of doing.

Quick question for those of you who have played some ball: is it harder as a freshman/inexperienced player to play offense or defense or doesn't it matter? I'm just thinking of Danny Roodts possibly being given the all important task of guarding JR. Isn't this a lot to ask, or is defense more of a team thing despite defensive assignments?

[sac]

Of course, you have to iterate this a few times until it settles down, since it is a recursive expression.

I thought a recursive expression was when you couldn't think of a new curse word to yell at your computer.  There are only so many of them.

Looks like a fun drive today, fun meaning I'll be recursive over and over all the way to Holland.

[hope1]

2 hours to the doors open lots of blowing snow and 10  degrees outside be carefully driveing to the game today

[Flying Dutch Fan]

And although GVW pulled Hope's starters out early, they still ending up averaging 28 minutes apiece, to 27 for Calvin's starters against Adrian. Kalamazoo's starters only averaged 21!  ...What does that say about Hope's bench?

Well since Kalamazoo's leading scorers both came off the bench (McCain & Clark) I guess Coach Passage made a wise choice.  What it says about Hope's bench is that a guy who just joined the team got 10 quality minutes, and a coach got his starters the right amount of minutes to be ready for today.

5 hours and counting

[HopeConvert]

I haven't seen Roodts play, but I had assumed he'd be assigned to guard Jesse. It'll be interesting to see how Hope attacks that match-up. My guess is that they'll be giving whoever is guarding Jesse plenty of help. Has Calvin been playing any zone?

For Calvin posters who haven't seen Hope this year, Jesse has trimmed down some since last year. I think it has made him a little quicker.

I'm wondering: will OK and GK show up today wearing maroon and gold face paint? I'm willing to contribute to the cost of the paint.

[oldknight]

I haven't seen Roodts play, but I had assumed he'd be assigned to guard Jesse. It'll be interesting to see how Hope attacks that match-up. My guess is that they'll be giving whoever is guarding Jesse plenty of help. Has Calvin been playing any zone?

For Calvin posters who haven't seen Hope this year, Jesse has trimmed down some since last year. I think it has made him a little quicker.

I'm wondering: will OK and GK show up today wearing maroon and gold face paint? I'm willing to contribute to the cost of the paint.

Alas, I'm relegated to watching from my lounge chair. Given the weather, that's not a bad place to be. I think a GK sighting is expected at DeVos. You'll learn of his entry when you hear the first strains of Hail to the Chief from the Hope pep band.

Reimink is a load no matter who is guarding him. That matchup, and how it plays out, is probably the single most important one in this game. In addition to Rodts, I expect Zoerhof will spend some time guarding Jesse, assuming Tyler has recovered from his misstep in the Adrian parking lot. Zoerhof is a very good defender but he's also somewhat foul prone.

BTW: Zoerhof is looking for someone to take his slip and fall case against Adrian College. Maybe bulldogalum knows a good lawyer.

[realist]

DK.  Thanks for the clarification, I think.    Whatever you call it, and however it is done, IMHO TRISH is TRASH so I will continue to TRASH TRISH.

In the early years of D3 Hoops (circa 99-00) there was a competitor I think from OH somehwere.  If memory serves correctly his name was Robinson, and he had the best rating system I have ever seen it was much better than Massey and way better than NCAA.  This guys system required lots of care and feeding, and I think he discontinued it when he had to get a real job.  I am sure Sac will remember this guy.