MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[realist]

NWH:  You are 100% correct they are just kids.

[Titan Q]

I know that Hope fans could agree with this statement.  Cleary Cleary Cares for Calvin.  He seems to forget that people all over watch this broadcast and should be a neutral unbiased commentator.  It appears he targets the Grand Rapids market.  Maybe I'm way off on this but it's just my opinion. 

It's funny how our own bias affects our opinion. Since Saturday's game I have spoken with 3 Calvin fans who, like me, watched the TV broadcast. Every one of them was vehement in their denunciation of what they saw as Cleary's pro-Hope bias and said they wouldn't listen to any broadcast he did.

Sounds like we might need someone without orange or maroon glasses on to critique Mr. Cleary.

<I'm still sulking>

I can't remember the broadcasters names, but I watched the game on World Harvest TV, off the dish.  The pbp guy was maybe in his mid-50's and the color guy was maybe in his early '30's.  

I thought both were very pro-Hope throughout.  In fact, I just assumed that I was listening to a regular Hope broadcast duo.

[Titan Q]

Calvin looked good to me - very balanced.  Calvin has a really nice inside presence with Mantel and (can't remember the other name), and Veldhouse is terrific on the perimeter. Where Hope is missing a good 5, it seems like Calvin is missing a good 3 - a guy who could make 3's and also break the defense down.  But Calvin seems like a very dangerous team...one that could do damage in the tournament.  

Again, it was my first look at both, but I left the TV broadcast feeling like Calvin is the better team due to its size and balance.  They looked like a Top 25 team to me.

Evidently not TOO much like one. They received no votes in this week's poll. 

I almost put Calvin on my ballot but decided I'd like to see them string together a few more W's first.  I also did not vote for Carthage, which beat Calvin convincingly on a neutral court.  In the end I found it difficult to put Calvin in there without Carthage, so I decided to hold off and continue to evaluate both (and others). 

[Dark Knight]

All I know is it will either be Hope or Calvin, or perhaps I wouldn't be surprised if it were a tie between those 2 schools.  The league is so down, though, it will be considered a pretty big upset if Hope or Calvin lose to someone else besides each other.  I guess it seems the last couple years that Calvin usually stumbles against a team they are favored to beat.  My prediction is either Hope or Calvin go 13-1 in league play to win the league(or perhaps even both go 13-1?).

Trish gives Calvin a 50% chance of winning out and Hope a 15% chance of winning the remainder of their games.  I don't buy it, though, because Calvin has not been very consistent.

The most consistent team so far has been Hope, whose games have all been within 4 points of the way Trish thinks they should have come out. The standard deviation of prediction error for Hope's games is 3.1 points.

Kalamazoo is next most consistent. They've been very consistent except for the last game, the 7-point overtime loss to Olivet, in which they did 8 points worse than expected. (Of course, one more free-throw in regular time would have made it come out exactly right.) The standard deviation of mis-prediction is 4.7 points.

Alma is next at a std dev of 5.4 points. They did 8 points better than expected in their 12-point win against Trine.

Adrian, Albion, and Olivet are all at 7-8 points, with Albion scoring about 10 points better than expected against Olivet and Adrian losing to Calvin by 12 points more than expected.

Trine is the penultimately inconsistent team, with a standard deviation of 10.5 points. They did 16 points better than expected in their 8-point loss at Calvin, and they did 11 points worse than expected in their loss at Alma.

Calvin racked up a healthy 11.6 points of inconsistency and took the gold medal. (Or is it the medal that is sometimes gold and sometimes coal?) They had a weak game against Trine, winning by only 8 at home, in a game they were supposed to win by 24, and they won at Adrian by 12 points more than expected. (The game against Hope was average.)

Trish's predictions for Wednesday:
Calvin over Olivet by 20 (97% chance of victory for Calvin)
Hope over Alma by 18 (95% chance of victory)
Trine over Adrian by 4 (65% chance of victory)
Albion over Kalamazoo by 0+ (52% chance of victory)

[AndersDY]

It was a 4 game mini-steak. 

This rivalry has had quite a few impressive streaks.  Everyone knows about the 1970's, but I am pretty sure Calvin also won 10 straight in the early 90s, while Hope also won 10 straight in the mid-90s until it was snapped in 1999.  Calvin then went on to win 5 straight games until Hope snapped that streak in the 2002 league tourney championship.

Streaks after the 70's

1982-85  Hope won 8 straight
1988-90  Calvin won 6 straight
1991-94  Calvin won 9 striaght
1995-98  Hope won 10 straight
2000-02  Calvin won 6 straight
2003-04  Hope won 4 straight
2006-07  Hope won 4 straight
2007-08  Hope won 4 straight

I did mis-read the "first in 5 games" as a 5 game streak, but it still didn't feel like we were on a minor upswing for a year plus there. That 91-94 gap you posted there is still both aggravating and amazing. For those Gugino/Elliott teams to be as good as they were and still be owned by Calvin... those were a couple fierce years for the rivalry. What might Hope have gotten to do in the NCAAs in 91 and 92 if they didn't have Calvin as the first hurdle.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

JR played 38 minutes, and being asked to defend a bigger guy, and than run to the other end where you are going to shadowed is very taxing.   Earlier in the game with fresh legs that last shot of his goes in. 

Well it would go in most games anyway   

Maybe yes, and maybe no.  Perhaps I am giving Calvin too much credit for coming up with a game plan that forced JR to play 38 minutes.  The difference between making or not making that shot is so small it is hard to know the impact "tired legs" would have.   Needing JR to cover JM really indicates how important GVW feels JM is to the outcome.  It also points out how JR is Hope's best defender, but he is still human an the strain takes a toll.  Long before the opening bell I said if I were KVS I would plan my game so that I forced JR to beat me.  He almost did.

My commment was concerning his shot going in earlier in the game.  Had those shots gone in (like any of his 1st half three's or any of those other in and out shots), he might not need to take a last second shot to win, we may have had the lead.

I alos don't think Calvin's game plan had much to do with Jesse playing 38 minutes.  The fact that he had 20 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 steals, and a block (and has been consistenly producing like that) are why he played 38 minutes.

[ziggy]

I alos don't think Calvin's game plan had much to do with Jesse playing 38 minutes.  The fact that he had 20 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 steals, and a block (and has been consistenly producing like that) are why he played 38 minutes.

I agree.  If you have a horse, you'd be wise to ride it.

[realist]

DK:  Nice to see you haven't given up on TRISH.   Please keep posting the "supposed to win" by numbers they give me a good laugh.  I especially liked Trine over Adrian by 4.  A person just has to love a "system" that critizes a team because it doesn't win by as much "as it was supposed to" over one team.  Than critizes that same team for beating another team by more than it "was supposed to".  I sure Hope you aren't married to TRISH.

[realist]

FWIW:  Even the best horse is going to get tired if you use it or ride it too much
With all the talent Hope has recruited over the years you would think one of them could play for a few minutes "without hurting the team".

[KnightSlappy]

I would be interested to see how TRISH would do in MIAA Pick 'em.  She(?) picks winners and outputs a confidence in each winner.

I think realist is being way too hard on TRISH.  I am just waiting for the computer program that can take completely subjective inputs and output accurate objective outputs.  For as hard as some have been on TRISH, I haven't really seen too many glaring inaccuracies.

I personally really like seeing "What TRISH Says".  Computer models can never be "perfect" and can never be taken as such.

[hoopdreams]

I liked the lineup hope played a lot in the second half- Krombeen, bunn, tanis, bowser and reimink.  Understanding it was because of Osburn's foul trouble, it is an athletic, quick,  potentially very strong offensive team and I don't think one loses much defensively or rebounding wise, especially if Will continues to rebound well.

I very well respected member of the hope Basketball community mentioned to me during the HOF tourney that he thought Zac's playing time would decrease throughout the season.  This person is someone "definitely in the know". (How convenient for my story Adrian fan)  I assumed it would be because of the growth of vennema and that's probably what he was eluding to, but I really liked that group.

I see bowser developing into a Klein type player (minus the 3pt shooting for now), rebounding, defending the post, beating post players off the dribble, using his length to disrupt shooters, because his perimeter game is in need of lots of work.

[section7]

In honor of JFK, "I've seen Ryan Klein play, and Will Bowser is NO Ryan Klein"


I see bowser developing into a Klein type player (minus the 3pt shooting for now), rebounding, defending the post, beating post players off the dribble, using his length to disrupt shooters, because his perimeter game is in need of lots of work.
[/quote]

[realist]

I would be interested to see how TRISH would do in MIAA Pick 'em.  She(?) picks winners and outputs a confidence in each winner.
[[If one reads the post DK did exactly that.  Calvin 4, Hope 3, Trine 2, and Albion 1. ]]
I think realist is being way too hard on TRISH.  I am just waiting for the computer program that can take completely subjective inputs and output accurate objective outputs.  For as hard as some have been on TRISH, I haven't really seen too many glaring inaccuracies.
[[To paraphrase:  I appreciiate a program that can take completely objective inputs, and issue totally subjective outputs. ]]

I personally really like seeing "What TRISH Says".  Computer models can never be "perfect" and can never be taken as such.

Me to.

[sac]

I can see the comparison between Bowser and Klein in a way, but mostly I can see the reasoning for optimism.


Sophomore years
Klein 20 games, 0 starts, 8 min/game, 2.3pts, 1.3 rbds, 3-7 from 3
Bowser 15 games, 15 starts, 22.7 min/game, 7.3 pts, 4.9 rbds, 4-21 from 3

I realize there's a big difference in team need between 09 and 06, so its probably more appropriate to use Klein's Jr. numbers, even then the 07 team did not need Klein like the 09 team needs Bowser, but for kicks........

07 Klein 31 games, 0 starts, 16.2 min/game, 5.7 pts, 3.6 rbds, 6-22 from 3

Obviously Klein had a great Sr season where his need matches the current teams need for Bowser.

08 Klein 31 games, 31 starts, 27.7 min/game, 9.6 pts, 5.5 rbds, 18-50 from 3
09 Bowser 15 games, 15 starts, 22.7 min/game, 7.3 pts, 4.9 rbds, 4-21 from 3

They aren't exactly the same player but I can see how a comparison might be made, and with Will playing as much as he has to as a Soph. the optomism seems warranted to me.

[HopeConvert]

The key in the Klein/Bowser comparison is on the defensive end. I don't see Will being in Ryan's class on that end (or, at least, yet). Perhaps we can ask Kent Raymond for his input on that question.