MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

Started by sac, February 19, 2005, 11:51:56 AM

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Flying Dutch Fan

#21450
It's October with the beginning of practice less than 2 weeks away and I just couldn't stand not having something basketball to talk about.  So, I did a little research and came up with the following (in the hopes of starting some discussion).

I compiled last years stats - eliminating anyone who has graduated or left a program prior to the end of the season.  I then compared those "potential" teams to themselves from last year.  In other words, how much of last years stats (scoring, rebounding, etc) could be on the team this year.  The results are a bit surprising.  (NOTE - I only included players who had a minimum of 10 minutes playing time last year)

Potential 2009-2010 Teams


Team     # Returning    Points   Rebounds      Assists Steals     Minutes    
Adrian     13   63.3%   69.7%      78.6% 74.3%   67.0%   
Albion     8   38.1%   44.5%      52.4% 51.4%   45.3%   
Alma     13   75.8%   69.7%      56.6% 73.4%   77.2%   
Calvin     9   54.6%   45.3%      41.3% 44.5%   47.2%   
Hope     11   53.1%   51.3%      61.5% 52.4%   60.3%   
Kalamazoo     14   61.1%   63.2%      60.0% 59.7%   65.9%   
Olivet     14   74.9%   76.9%      87.7% 71.0%   83.4%   
Trine     16   97.8%   98.4%      96.7% 93.4%   97.8%   

For me the "scariest" of these is Olivet.  They have huge returning numbers, for a team that finished fourth last year. 
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

sac


KnightSlappy

From the NCAC board:

Quote from: David Collinge on October 07, 2009, 01:02:28 PM
Wooster also clocks in at #5 in the preseason DIII News rankings (PDF).  John Carroll is #9, Hope #11, Calvin #18, and Capital #24. 

Hope at #11 seems VERY aggressive to me and Calvin at #18 seems fairly aggressive. Thoughts?

sac

Quote from: KnightSlappy on October 07, 2009, 02:58:18 PM
From the NCAC board:

Quote from: David Collinge on October 07, 2009, 01:02:28 PM
Wooster also clocks in at #5 in the preseason DIII News rankings (PDF).  John Carroll is #9, Hope #11, Calvin #18, and Capital #24. 

Hope at #11 seems VERY aggressive to me and Calvin at #18 seems fairly aggressive. Thoughts?

I've never put much stock into the D3News rankings........

....you'll note there is no CCIW team in the top 25.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: sac on October 07, 2009, 03:53:01 PM
Quote from: KnightSlappy on October 07, 2009, 02:58:18 PM
From the NCAC board:

Quote from: David Collinge on October 07, 2009, 01:02:28 PM
Wooster also clocks in at #5 in the preseason DIII News rankings (PDF).  John Carroll is #9, Hope #11, Calvin #18, and Capital #24. 

Hope at #11 seems VERY aggressive to me and Calvin at #18 seems fairly aggressive. Thoughts?

I've never put much stock into the D3News rankings........

....you'll note there is no CCIW team in the top 25.

And only one (Augie) even in the 'teams to watch' listing.  Unless the CCIW is headed for its worst year in just about forever, that is just not a credible list.

KnightSlappy

Quote from: sac on October 07, 2009, 03:53:01 PM
Quote from: KnightSlappy on October 07, 2009, 02:58:18 PM
From the NCAC board:

Quote from: David Collinge on October 07, 2009, 01:02:28 PM
Wooster also clocks in at #5 in the preseason DIII News rankings (PDF).  John Carroll is #9, Hope #11, Calvin #18, and Capital #24. 

Hope at #11 seems VERY aggressive to me and Calvin at #18 seems fairly aggressive. Thoughts?

I've never put much stock into the D3News rankings........

....you'll note there is no CCIW team in the top 25.

I understand that they probably just threw darts at a US map and picked the closest D3 team--the Calvin Women were ranked #20 (I don't pretend to know too much about women's hoops, but I don't expect them to be a top 20 team).

I thought it might be some fodder for some discussion on where they ought to be ranked.

Without looking at the rest of the country (so I'm throwing my own darts) I might place Calvin #22-25 and Hope in the receiving votes category just outside the top 25.

sac

Given that both finished out of the top 25 last season  (Hope finished equivalent of #42, Calvin received 0 final poll votes), and both had significant Sr. graduates, I don't see how either should start in the top 25.

They both have nice cores returning to build around, but each has significant questions in a lot of areas on the floor.

realist

FDF:  Thanks for the number crunching.  To me the key number is the % of minutes returning.  Calvin and Albion have to fill more than 50% of the floor time.  Hope is better off with needing to fill about 40% of the time.  Calvin has 54% of the scoring returning, but has a big number to fill in the rebounding area.  Looking at the numbers for almost any school can tell you much about what they may need to do to improve.  Trine has everyone back, but doubt there is a meaningful correlation between that number and anticipated improvement.
Like Sac, at this time I would not put much fairth or hope in any pre-season poll that has any MIAA team (except Hope women) ranked. 
"If you are catching flack it means you are over the target".  Brietbart.

KnightSlappy

Quote from: realist on October 08, 2009, 10:52:57 AM
FDF:  Thanks for the number crunching.  To me the key number is the % of minutes returning.  Calvin and Albion have to fill more than 50% of the floor time.  Hope is better off with needing to fill about 40% of the time.  Calvin has 54% of the scoring returning, but has a big number to fill in the rebounding area.  Looking at the numbers for almost any school can tell you much about what they may need to do to improve.  Trine has everyone back, but doubt there is a meaningful correlation between that number and anticipated improvement.
Like Sac, at this time I would not put much fairth or hope in any pre-season poll that has any MIAA team (except Hope women) ranked. 

Hope is in better shape with returning minutes (experience) but they're still missing more points (at least a higher percentage) than Calvin is.

Considering the number of players (and minutes) that Calvin lost, they are in good shape as far as points go. They are the only team that is returning a higher percentage of points than minutes, which is a positive sign.

oldknight

Calvin's Trent Salo is a 2006 graduate of Rudyard High School. Over the weekend, Spc. Christopher Griffin (Rudyard HS, Class of 2004) was one of 8 Americans killed in action during a ferocious firefight at a remote Afgan base when his unit comprising 49 soldiers was attacked by 200 Taliban.  Both Salo and Griffin played football at Rudyard and in a school that small they undoubtedly knew one another.  As we look forward to another exciting season of hoops, take a moment to remember our servicemen and women, so far away. Here's link to the CNN article:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/10/07/afghanistan.soldiers/index.html

RIP Christopher Griffin. :'(

Flying Dutch Fan

Found that the Hornets have their roster up (no distinction between Varsity and JV), but it is at least a list of the palyers.

http://www.kzoo.edu/sports/mb/mb09-10/mbrstr09-10.html
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

sac

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on October 12, 2009, 01:36:23 PM
Found that the Hornets have their roster up (no distinction between Varsity and JV), but it is at least a list of the palyers.

http://www.kzoo.edu/sports/mb/mb09-10/mbrstr09-10.html


One name of significance missing from that roster is  5-10 Sr. G Verelle Kirkwood.......he avg'd about 21 minutes per game and 9.6 points.

Also not on that roster from last season, are Jr's Matt Guldan and Andrew Manor both played sparingly last year.

Cory McCain is also playing football for the Hornets.

Happy Calvin Guy

Quote from: sac on October 12, 2009, 06:41:34 PM
Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on October 12, 2009, 01:36:23 PM
Found that the Hornets have their roster up (no distinction between Varsity and JV), but it is at least a list of the palyers.

http://www.kzoo.edu/sports/mb/mb09-10/mbrstr09-10.html


One name of significance missing from that roster is  5-10 Sr. G Verelle Kirkwood

Even with Kirkwood's absence, average height on this roster: 6' 1-1/2".  They better be quick

GoKnights68

Calvin College Midnight Madness starts in a little over a hour!

calvinite

Although I'm guessing midnight madness is the official start of basketball practice at midnight, I don't know this for a fact. What is midnight madness?
Knights!

"I speak to everyone in the same way, whether he is the garbage man or the president of the university."
― Albert Einstein