MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[KnightSlappy]

when someone does get the hot hand....ride them until THEY want to come out of the game. 

I wonder if anyone has ever done a study to see if "hot streaks" have predicitive value in basketball.

I know that in baseball, a hitter is no more likely to get a hit when "hot" than when "cold", but pitchers are more likely to perform well after a hot streak.

I think of this in basketball, especially for 3-pt shooters. What's their average 3PT%? What is it on attempts following a made attempt? What is it following two consecutive made attempts? Three? You'd probably have to set some sort of time limitation between attempts.

[sac]

when someone does get the hot hand....ride them until THEY want to come out of the game.

I wonder if anyone has ever done a study to see if "hot streaks" have predicitive value in basketball.

I know that in baseball, a hitter is no more likely to get a hit when "hot" than when "cold", but pitchers are more likely to perform well after a hot streak.

I think of this in basketball, especially for 3-pt shooters. What's their average 3PT%? What is it on attempts following a made attempt? What is it following two consecutive made attempts? Three? You'd probably have to set some sort of time limitation between attempts.

ebastats.com

If anybody has, its these guys. 

[HopeConvert]

when someone does get the hot hand....ride them until THEY want to come out of the game. 

I wonder if anyone has ever done a study to see if "hot streaks" have predicitive value in basketball.

I know that in baseball, a hitter is no more likely to get a hit when "hot" than when "cold", but pitchers are more likely to perform well after a hot streak.

I think of this in basketball, especially for 3-pt shooters. What's their average 3PT%? What is it on attempts following a made attempt? What is it following two consecutive made attempts? Three? You'd probably have to set some sort of time limitation between attempts.

http://www.amazon.com/Intuition-Powers-Perils-Yale-Nota/dp/0300103034/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1287427679&sr=8-1-spell

See chapter 7. Short answer: Myers argues that, statistically speaking, there is no such thing as a hot hand.

[HopeConvert]

Or, more accurately, that streaks aren't atypical of what you would expect in any random sequence of data.

[sac]

when someone does get the hot hand....ride them until THEY want to come out of the game. 

I wonder if anyone has ever done a study to see if "hot streaks" have predicitive value in basketball.

I know that in baseball, a hitter is no more likely to get a hit when "hot" than when "cold", but pitchers are more likely to perform well after a hot streak.

I think of this in basketball, especially for 3-pt shooters. What's their average 3PT%? What is it on attempts following a made attempt? What is it following two consecutive made attempts? Three? You'd probably have to set some sort of time limitation between attempts.

http://www.amazon.com/Intuition-Powers-Perils-Yale-Nota/dp/0300103034/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1287427679&sr=8-1-spell

See chapter 7. Short answer: Myers argues that, statistically speaking, there is no such thing as a hot hand.

Also a good source. 

[KnightSlappy]

This 1985 paper also came to the conclusion that there is not such thing as a hot hand.

http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/tdg1/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf

[Gregory Sager]

This 1985 paper also came to the conclusion that there is not such thing as a hot hand.

http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/tdg1/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf

This kid is about to draw a different conclusion.

[realist]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

[KnightSlappy]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

The studies are saying that the had was never hot or cold. Whether the even-temperatured hand make lots of shots in a row or miss lots of shots in a row the true skill level remains constant. The implication of a "hot streak" is that the shooter is more likely to make the next shot (his shooting skill level is temporarily increased).

[sflzman]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

The studies are saying that the had was never hot or cold. Whether the even-temperatured hand make lots of shots in a row or miss lots of shots in a row the true skill level remains constant. The implication of a "hot streak" is that the shooter is more likely to make the next shot (his shooting skill level is temporarily increased).

Similar to the term "on fire" I would sure hope the player isn't literally on fire

[SKOT]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

The studies are saying that the had was never hot or cold. Whether the even-temperatured hand make lots of shots in a row or miss lots of shots in a row the true skill level remains constant. The implication of a "hot streak" is that the shooter is more likely to make the next shot (his shooting skill level is temporarily increased).

Similar to the term "on fire" I would sure hope the player isn't literally on fire

I don't know about you, but quite often when i describe someone as, "on fire" I wish they actually were "on fire."  It might help them stop shooting so well! 

[sflzman]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

The studies are saying that the had was never hot or cold. Whether the even-temperatured hand make lots of shots in a row or miss lots of shots in a row the true skill level remains constant. The implication of a "hot streak" is that the shooter is more likely to make the next shot (his shooting skill level is temporarily increased).

Similar to the term "on fire" I would sure hope the player isn't literally on fire

I don't know about you, but quite often when i describe someone as, "on fire" I wish they actually were "on fire."  It might help them stop shooting so well! 

Yes, you're true about that

[ziggy]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

The studies are saying that the had was never hot or cold. Whether the even-temperatured hand make lots of shots in a row or miss lots of shots in a row the true skill level remains constant. The implication of a "hot streak" is that the shooter is more likely to make the next shot (his shooting skill level is temporarily increased).

Similar to the term "on fire" I would sure hope the player isn't literally on fire

I don't know about you, but quite often when i describe someone as, "on fire" I wish they actually were "on fire."  It might help them stop shooting so well! 

The unlimited turbo and the ability to goaltend is a huge advantage.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

A "hot hand" is a lot like pornography.  You know it when you see it.  


While I would agree having made your last shot isn't predictive of making the next shot I sure know it when a person that normally hits 35% of their shots is suddently hitting 100%.  It may be saying a person "had" a hot hand as opposed to saying a person "has" a hot hand

The studies are saying that the had was never hot or cold. Whether the even-temperatured hand make lots of shots in a row or miss lots of shots in a row the true skill level remains constant. The implication of a "hot streak" is that the shooter is more likely to make the next shot (his shooting skill level is temporarily increased).

Sure the "true skill level remains constant" to a degree - but practice and repetition does improve ones skill.  We have to be careful about assuming that a players skill level (average over some period time) is the whole story.  To do so would be like saying a man with one had in boiling water and the other frozen in ice is comfortable.

[KnightSlappy]

Sure the "true skill level remains constant" to a degree - but practice and repetition does improve ones skill.

True, but that's not what we're talking about. Players certainly improve, but they don't truly get better and worse as quickly as we are to label them as "hot" or "cold" (this could change several times in a single game).

We have to be careful about assuming that a players skill level (average over some period time) is the whole story. 

I would say the opposite. We have to be more careful about assuming that a player's apparent skill level (average over a short period of time) is the whole story.

To do so would be like saying a man with one had in boiling water and the other frozen in ice is comfortable.

In the case of streaky shooters, we're inventing the ice and boiling water and claiming the man had a hand in each. In reality his hands were always even temperatured even though we thought they looked hot or cold.

Random happens.