MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[pointlem]

I assume you did not ace probability if you think the odds are now 2/3 for switching!

Sorry, Mr. Ypsi . . . but Ziggy and Calvin_Grad are right.  See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Of interest to Hope fans.  I was looking forward to seeing last year's injured recruit Jared Howenstine in a Hope uniform this year.  (I saw him play once and he had amazing quickness and passing ability.)  Alas, he is going from street clothes on the Hope bench to DI . . . and is keeping the earth in balance by reversing Peter Bunn's Oakland U to Hope transfer:
http://www.ougrizzlies.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/howenstine_jordan00.html

[calvin_grad]

But I already convinced ziggy!

I assume you did not ace probability if you think the odds are now 2/3 for switching!

Sorry, Mr. Ypsi.  I did ace a probability and statistics 200 level course, I have a math minor, and assuming that you know where the bag with the big money is, the odds are 2/3 in favor of me switching.   Sorry to the rest of you, but I need to set Mr. Ypsi straight.  Here goes...

Let's assume that you know where the big money is hidden and I always pick door #1 of the 3 doors.  That will make this is easier to explain.  There are 3 possibilities - the bag is either behind door #1, door #2, or door #3.

Possibility #1 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open one of the other doors to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #2 - cash behind door #2, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #2 I win
Possibility #3 - cash behind door #3, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #3 I win

Out of those 3 possibilities, I win 2 of them if I switch.  Hence my odds are 2/3.

More information at the following link:

http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html

[ziggy]

Ah, the link didn't work... Let's try this. Glenn Alfieri appears in four years of box scores in the MIAA archives.

http://www.miaa.org/mbb/stats/0607/tsu-m.htm#team.ind
http://www.miaa.org/mbb/stats/0708/tsum.htm#team.ind
http://www.miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/trinem.htm#team.ind
http://www.miaa.org/mbb/stats/0910/trinem.htm#team.ind

Fail.

For some reason I was thinking he missed quite a bit of time due to injury and perhaps qualified for a fifth year but that is not the case according to the stats. He played in at least 20 games each season.

[KnightSlappy]

But I already convinced ziggy!

I assume you did not ace probability if you think the odds are now 2/3 for switching!

Sorry, Mr. Ypsi.  I did ace a probability and statistics 200 level course, I have a math minor, and assuming that you know where the bag with the big money is, the odds are 2/3 in favor of me switching.   Sorry to the rest of you, but I need to set Mr. Ypsi straight.  Here goes...

Let's assume that you know where the big money is hidden and I always pick door #1 of the 3 doors.  That will make this is easier to explain.  There are 3 possibilities - the bag is either behind door #1, door #2, or door #3.

Possibility #1 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open one of the other doors to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #2 - cash behind door #2, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #2 I win
Possibility #3 - cash behind door #3, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #3 I win

Out of those 3 possibilities, I win 2 of them if I switch.  Hence my odds are 2/3.

More information at the following link:

http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html

I think you mean:

Possibility #1 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #2 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #3 - cash behind door #2, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #2 I win
Possibility #4 - cash behind door #3, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #3 I win

Out of those 4 possibilities, I win 2 of them if I switch.  Hence my odds are 2/4.

[Mr. Ypsi]

But I already convinced ziggy!

I assume you did not ace probability if you think the odds are now 2/3 for switching!

Sorry, Mr. Ypsi.  I did ace a probability and statistics 200 level course, I have a math minor, and assuming that you know where the bag with the big money is, the odds are 2/3 in favor of me switching.   Sorry to the rest of you, but I need to set Mr. Ypsi straight.  Here goes...

Let's assume that you know where the big money is hidden and I always pick door #1 of the 3 doors.  That will make this is easier to explain.  There are 3 possibilities - the bag is either behind door #1, door #2, or door #3.

Possibility #1 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open one of the other doors to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #2 - cash behind door #2, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #2 I win
Possibility #3 - cash behind door #3, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #3 I win

Out of those 3 possibilities, I win 2 of them if I switch.  Hence my odds are 2/3.

More information at the following link:

http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html

I think you mean:

Possibility #1 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #2 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #3 - cash behind door #2, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #2 I win
Possibility #4 - cash behind door #3, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #3 I win

Out of those 4 possibilities, I win 2 of them if I switch.  Hence my odds are 2/4.

BINGO!

Give that man an A for the midterm!

(I'll spare the rest of the board having to see the final! )

[Civic Minded]

I assume you did not ace probability if you think the odds are now 2/3 for switching!

Sorry, Mr. Ypsi . . . but Ziggy and Calvin_Grad are right.  See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Of interest to Hope fans.  I was looking forward to seeing last year's injured recruit Jared Howenstine in a Hope uniform this year.  (I saw him play once and he had amazing quickness and passing ability.)  Alas, he is going from street clothes on the Hope bench to DI . . . and is keeping the earth in balance by reversing Peter Bunn's Oakland U to Hope transfer:
http://www.ougrizzlies.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/howenstine_jordan00.html

Well, shoot.  That's a shame.  Jordan is a nice kid and had great potential; I was looking forward to seeing what he could do this year.  He was around Hope some this summer yet, playing in a summer league game at least once.  Shoot.

[pointlem]

If Wikipedia and Calvin_Grad haven't persuaded you that you should switch doors for a 2/3rds chance of winning, try out your strategy on a Monty Hall game simulator--of which there are several, such as:
http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm
(Note:  you can make choices yourself, or ask the computer to run up to 1000 trials using either a stay or change strategy.)

While we're having fun with math, awaiting mid November, try this old favorite on your friends:
A farmer buys a horse for $60 and sells it for $70.  Then he buys the same horse back for $80 and sells it for $90.  How much money did he make buying and selling the horse?

[sac]

Jordan Howenstine was one of the more interesting "recruits" Hope had last year.  I say "recruit" because I've heard two different versions of how he ended up at Hope, one being that he wasn't recruited at all.

I believe Jordan was homeschooled but played Varsity basketball for Lansing Sexton.  He was being recruited by Oakland going into his Sr. season, if I remember right OU's coach thought he was one of the better PG's he had recruited.  Not sure what to make of that since OU recruited Jonathan Jones and Howenstine was no Jones, IMO.

Jordan suffored a knee injury halfway through the season (around Christmas or after as I recall) yet still received some mention for the All-League team.  Oakland either stopped recruiting him or told him to sit out a year, but either way he ended up in Holland.  The summer before last he injured the knee again, and was forced to sit out last season altogether and was never a member of the Dutchmen officially.

I also understand Jordan had academic scholarships to both Michigan State and Michigan, but went to Hope with some intention at least of playing basketball.  As his Oakland bio states, he made the Dean's List while at Hope.

Also found in his bio was that his mother was the first OU Foundation Scholar, so he has family ties to the Grizzlies as well.  Best of luck to Jordan.

[calvin_grad]

I think you mean:

Possibility #1 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #2 - cash behind door #1, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch doors I lose
Possibility #3 - cash behind door #2, I pick door #1, you open door #3 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #2 I win
Possibility #4 - cash behind door #3, I pick door #1, you open door #2 to reveal it is empty, if I switch to door #3 I win

Out of those 4 possibilities, I win 2 of them if I switch.  Hence my odds are 2/4.

BINGO!

Give that man an A for the midterm!

(I'll spare the rest of the board having to see the final! )

Sorry guys.  You're still wrong.  Run the simulator if you don't believe me.  I'll take my "A" now, Mr. Ypsi.   

[devossed]

Actually, I believe this one my be of "as much if not more" interest to Hope fans than Howenstine's appearance:

http://www.gowolves.net/roster/8/1/333.php


Or even this one for Alma fans:

http://www.gowolves.net/roster/8/1/330.php

[Mr. Ypsi]

If Wikipedia and Calvin_Grad haven't persuaded you that you should switch doors for a 2/3rds chance of winning, try out your strategy on a Monty Hall game simulator--of which there are several, such as:
http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm
(Note:  you can make choices yourself, or ask the computer to run up to 1000 trials using either a stay or change strategy.)

While we're having fun with math, awaiting mid November, try this old favorite on your friends:
A farmer buys a horse for $60 and sells it for $70.  Then he buys the same horse back for $80 and sells it for $90.  How much money did he make buying and selling the horse?

He made $10 net (+20 - 10).

Proof (if any of you doubters need it! ) that in his areas of competence Mr. Ypsi is smarter than Wikipedia (and whoever designed those simulators):

In the initial two stages, there are six possibilities (each with the same probability):

Door 1 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - 1/6
Door 1 has the loot, Monty opens door 3 - 1/6
Door 2 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - CANNOT HAPPEN
Door 3 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - 1/6
Door 3 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - 1/6
Door 3 has the loot, Monty opens door 3 - CANNOT HAPPEN

Bottom line - 1/6 + 1/6 either way: 50-50 chance.

Wikipedia and the simulators do not understand that the host KNOWS where the loot is, and will never open that door.  Simple problem, botched by many!   Since I am in awe of vos Savant's IQ in general, it is embarassing that she got the bit about whether or nor the host knows exactly backwards.

[oldknight]

Actually, I believe this one my be of "as much if not more" interest to Hope fans than Howenstine's appearance:

http://www.gowolves.net/roster/8/1/333.php


Or even this one for Alma fans:

http://www.gowolves.net/roster/8/1/330.php

Or this one for fans of the Hollies or Crosby Stills:

http://www.gowolves.net/roster/8/1/340.php
     

[pointlem]

[He made $10 net (+20 - 10).

That's what most of your friends will also say, Mr. Ypsi. (and thanks for being a good sport and venturing an answer).  Actually, he made $20.  Substitute "some bricks" for the horse in the second transaction and I think you'll see that the farmer made $10 on two separate transactions.  Or get out some Monopoly money and play it.

Okay, back to basketball . . .

[Mr. Ypsi]

[He made $10 net (+20 - 10).

That's what most of your friends will also say, Mr. Ypsi. (and thanks for being a good sport and venturing an answer).  Actually, he made $20.  Substitute "some bricks" for the horse in the second transaction and I think you'll see that the farmer made $10 on two separate transactions.  Or get out some Monopoly money and play it.

Okay, back to basketball . . .

I think you're trying to have it both ways.  If he bought the SAME horse back for $80 that he sold for $70, he also lost $10.

Buying DIFFERENT horses for $60 and $80 and selling them for $70 and $90, he made $20.

Check with your accountant (and tax advisor), not your mathematician!

[calvin_grad]

[He made $10 net (+20 - 10).

That's what most of your friends will also say, Mr. Ypsi. (and thanks for being a good sport and venturing an answer).  Actually, he made $20.  Substitute "some bricks" for the horse in the second transaction and I think you'll see that the farmer made $10 on two separate transactions.  Or get out some Monopoly money and play it.

Okay, back to basketball . . .

I think you're trying to have it both ways.  If he bought the SAME horse back for $80 that he sold for $70, he also lost $10.

Buying DIFFERENT horses for $60 and $80 and selling them for $70 and $90, he made $20.

Check with your accountant (and tax advisor), not your mathematician!

My accountant told me, that if I had $100...

..and bought Trigger for $60, I'd have $40.
Sold Trigger for $70, now I'd have $110.
Bought Trigger for $80, now I'd have $30.
Sold Trigger for $90, now I'd have $120.

He also told me $120-$100 is $20 profit, even if I sold the SAME horse.