MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[calvin_grad]

In the initial two stages, there are six possibilities (each with the same probability):

Door 1 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - 1/6
Door 1 has the loot, Monty opens door 3 - 1/6
Door 2 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - CANNOT HAPPEN
Door 3 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - 1/6
Door 3 has the loot, Monty opens door 2 - 1/6
Door 3 has the loot, Monty opens door 3 - CANNOT HAPPEN

My apologes as well, but I have to try once more.  In your quote above, Mr. Ypsi, you state that there are 6 possibilities, each with the same probability, and then go on to say that 2 of them can't happen.  If they can't happen, the probability of them happening is 0, which is not the same as 1/6.  This is a conditional probability problem.

Odds of door 1 having the loot (1/3) * odds of Monty opening door 2 (1/2) = 1/6
Odds of door 1 having the loot (1/3) * odds of Monty opening door 3 (1/2) = 1/6
Odds of door 2 having the loot (1/3) * odds of Monty opening door 2 (0) = 0
Odds of door 2 having the loot (1/3) * odds of Monty opening door 3 (1) = 1/3
Odds of door 3 having the loot (1/3) * odds of Monty opening door 2 (1) = 1/3
Odds of door 3 having the loot (1/3) * odds of Monty opening door 2 (1/2) = 0

Two of those options favor me switching. 1/3+1/3=2/3

But if my argument, Baye's Theorem, conditional probability, other posters, Marilyn herself, or "GIGO" simulators don't convince you, my only suggestion is to run your own simulator with 3 paper cups, a quarter, and a bored fellow MIAA poster who needs the season to start soon.  Chart your results and see what happens.

My last post on the subject.  GO KNIGHTS!!

[David Collinge]

Enough of the Monty Hall problem already!  Can we please get back to discussing whether Wooster's golf course in on or off campus?

[oldknight]

Enough of the Monty Hall problem already!  Can we please get back to discussing whether Wooster's golf course in on or off campus?

Having been to your fair campus (as you well know), I am confident that LC Boles is in fact on the Wooster campus. This link supports my occasionally balky memory.

http://www3.wooster.edu/boles/

[sflzman]

Enough of the Monty Hall problem already!  Can we please get back to discussing whether Wooster's golf course in on or off campus?

Having been to your fair campus (as you well know), I am confident that LC Boles is in fact on the Wooster campus. This link supports my occasionally balky memory.

http://www3.wooster.edu/boles/

Even if that is on campus - which it looks like it is - it's only 9 holes....the "back 9" is the same 9 holes, just a different tee box.....

[oldknight]

A disciplinary blind spot?

That reminds me of a riddle. This one is curious in that the more education you have, the harder it is to answer. Highly educated people may take days to answer it, while a 6-year-old might blurt out the answer immediately.

What's greater than God,
more evil than the devil,
rich people need it,
poor people have it,
and if you eat it you die?

[Let's see if anyone dares to answer this one quickly!  ]

Nothing

You know, you almost have to be an academic to ask and answer a riddle containing that many fallacies of equivocation.

[sflzman]

A disciplinary blind spot?

That reminds me of a riddle. This one is curious in that the more education you have, the harder it is to answer. Highly educated people may take days to answer it, while a 6-year-old might blurt out the answer immediately.

What's greater than God,
more evil than the devil,
rich people need it,
poor people have it,
and if you eat it you die?

[Let's see if anyone dares to answer this one quickly!  ]

Nothing

You know, you almost have to be an academic to ask and answer a riddle containing that many fallacies of equivocation.

You know what I realize after quoting this post?

There are a lot of "Knights" on this board.....

[knights2000]

I know this about a week late, but there is an interesting article in this week's Sports Illustrated about a small catholic school, DIII Anna Maria College in Massachusetts. They started a football program three years ago. To date they have not won a game, but they sell out every home game (1200 seats) and enrollment has increased from 1100 to 1600 in this time. Seems like football is working there.

Unrelated, I was on campus for homecoming weekend and happened to see a bit of the varsity vs. JV scrimmage at Van Noord. The varsity started Schuster, Rodts, Snikkers, Powell, and Salo. Can't wait for the real games to start!

[sflzman]

I was looking at Calvin's roster and they are so tall...there's no-one at Alma that could match up with that height!

We had a recruit that was 6-11 and a stud, but when coach Smith took the job at MSU he left school and I heard he's going to play at Aquinas this winter....

[GoKnights68]

I was looking at Calvin's roster and they are so tall...there's no-one at Alma that could match up with that height!

We had a recruit that was 6-11 and a stud, but when coach Smith took the job at MSU he left school and I heard he's going to play at Aquinas this winter....

Yeah, but Calvin still lacks a true proven number 5 with the loss of Mantel.  Schuster had a very solid season last season and made clutch shots, but I am interested how well he will defend the post.

[Dark Knight]

I was looking at Calvin's roster and they are so tall...there's no-one at Alma that could match up with that height!

We had a recruit that was 6-11 and a stud, but when coach Smith took the job at MSU he left school and I heard he's going to play at Aquinas this winter....

Yeah, but Calvin still lacks a true proven number 5 with the loss of Mantel.  Schuster had a very solid season last season and made clutch shots, but I am interested how well he will defend the post.

Schuster averaged 2.0 blocks per game last year, behind only Joe Prepolec of Kalamazoo, and ahead of the likes of McClary and Mantel. Schuster actually had more blocks per minute played than anyone else, as far as I can tell.

[oldknight]

I was looking at Calvin's roster and they are so tall...there's no-one at Alma that could match up with that height!

We had a recruit that was 6-11 and a stud, but when coach Smith took the job at MSU he left school and I heard he's going to play at Aquinas this winter....

Yeah, but Calvin still lacks a true proven number 5 with the loss of Mantel.  Schuster had a very solid season last season and made clutch shots, but I am interested how well he will defend the post.

Schuster proved to be a very good defender last year, with many of his blocks coming off-the-ball when he rotated to help out. The challenge for Brent this year is to become a defensive stopper when matched up against another team's best low post scorer, and to be that person without getting into foul trouble. Last year Mantel was Calvin's primary low post defender, and a good one, but was often saddled with quick early fouls that forced him to the bench for long stretches.

[HopeConvert]

[He made $10 net (+20 - 10).

That's what most of your friends will also say, Mr. Ypsi. (and thanks for being a good sport and venturing an answer).  Actually, he made $20.  Substitute "some bricks" for the horse in the second transaction and I think you'll see that the farmer made $10 on two separate transactions.  Or get out some Monopoly money and play it.

Okay, back to basketball . . .

Yes. The question is "How much money did he make buying and selling the horse?" This requires calculating the initial cost.

Buy #1: down $60
Sell #1: up $10
Buy #2: down $70
Sell #2: up $20

[ziggy]

Hope's rosters are up:

http://www.hope.edu/pr/athletics/mbb/mbbrost.html

Are Hope fans surprised to see Austin Elling on the JV squad? I'm not familiar with his game but I got the impression from earlier recruiting talk that he was an important target. Perhaps it is just a function of having a veteran varisty frontcourt?

[Civic Minded]

Hope's rosters are up:

http://www.hope.edu/pr/athletics/mbb/mbbrost.html

Are Hope fans surprised to see Austin Elling on the JV squad? I'm not familiar with his game but I got the impression from earlier recruiting talk that he was an important target. Perhaps it is just a function of having a veteran varisty frontcourt?

Not surprised; very much a function of having a verteran varsity frontcourt, and some really high caliber sophs ready to move up.  His day will come, and in the meantime a year of learning the offense and getting good PT should serve him well. 

[realist]

Looking at the Hope's roster I notice Mike Aldrich is JV coach this season.  Not sure I recall this name.  What is his pedigree?