MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[ChicagoHopeNut]

FDF- I agree, I am also happy with the combined stats of Tanis and Neil without doing all the work. Last night was one of the few nights where it may have been nice to have 1 more guard in the rotation because there were some struggles and unique combos on the floor.

If Powell is 6-8 and Rodts is 1-8, I hope they script up a play for Rodts

It doesn't simply pertain to shooting.  If Nate King  or Haverdink comes in, knocks a shot down, grabs a couple boards,forces a TO and makes a huge play to turn the momentum of the game, do you take him out when planned? Or do you let him play a bit more?  What if the pre-game plan is to play Vennema in 2 minute increments, but he comes in and scores 8 straight?  Do you take him out if he's not winded?

I was going to make the same point.  If the numbers may become more skewed then who do you take? At some point I would go with the go playing at the top of his game rather than rely simply on career or season percentages.  I am not sure there is a "right" answer to this, it's really a matter of philosophy.

But I vote for the hot hand at a certain point. You need to coach the game being played that night. You can't coach a career in one shot.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The statisticians are right - statistically there is no such thing (provably) as a 'hot hand'.

However, the other side is also right.  Many (most?) players and coaches believe in the hot hand.  Confidence is a huge factor in how you play.  I recall games where I felt like the basket was twice its normal size.  Did I actually make more shots - yes.  Did I actually shoot a higher percentage - I have no idea.  But I'm pretty certain I was better on both offense AND defense when I felt that way.  It may well be just a 'placebo effect', but gol-durn-it, don't take away placebos!   Bowser's huge game was almost certainly at least in part a factor of him thinking he had the 'hot hand'!

We statisticians seek truth, but we also risk being killjoys.

[KnightSlappy]

FDF- I agree, I am also happy with the combined stats of Tanis and Neil without doing all the work. Last night was one of the few nights where it may have been nice to have 1 more guard in the rotation because there were some struggles and unique combos on the floor.

If Powell is 6-8 and Rodts is 1-8, I hope they script up a play for Rodts

It doesn't simply pertain to shooting.  If Nate King  or Haverdink comes in, knocks a shot down, grabs a couple boards,forces a TO and makes a huge play to turn the momentum of the game, do you take him out when planned? Or do you let him play a bit more?  What if the pre-game plan is to play Vennema in 2 minute increments, but he comes in and scores 8 straight?  Do you take him out if he's not winded?

I was going to make the same point.  If the numbers may become more skewed then who do you take? At some point I would go with the go playing at the top of his game rather than rely simply on career or season percentages.  I am not sure there is a "right" answer to this, it's really a matter of philosophy.

But I vote for the hot hand at a certain point. You need to coach the game being played that night. You can't coach a career in one shot.

Entire research papers have been published in statistical journals about this. Every time they get the same result. Going with the guy with the better career or season numbers, even if he's "cold", will give you better results, on average, than the "hot" player that's worse in the career numbers.

So, essentially, there is a right answer. Don't ever worry about who's hot.

[Civic Minded]

But I vote for the hot hand at a certain point. You need to coach the game being played that night. You can't coach a career in one shot.

Love this line.  Others may be able to disprove it statistically, but I've seen too much of this world to not believe this to be true.  Kudos, CHN!

[Civic Minded]

And this kid "only" scored 43....

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/BYU-s-Jimmer-Fredette-now-has-the-attention-of-e?urn=ncaab-313094

Maybe Sat. we'll be chanting "you got Bowsered."    (I kid, I kid, relax...)   

[pointlem]

Confidence is a huge factor in how you play.  . . . We statisticians seek truth, but we also risk being killjoys.

Agreed, Ypsi, confidence affects play . . . though one possible effect may be that a player who has just made shots starts overshooting (from overconfidence) and the one who has just missed now fails to take the same shot moments later (I'm sure I witness this).  Perhaps--I'm musing--that's one reason that, as KnightSlappy rightly reminds us, players in many studies (both pro and college) have been found not to become more likely to make the next shot after just making several. 

Is stating that fact of life being a killjoy?--or is it quite the opposite, by encouraging players who've just missed a couple shots to put it out of mind.  The basketball universe starts afresh on the next shot.  And if you're a teammate, don't lose confidence in a good player who has just had a bad spell. 

[Gregory Sager]

Players who believe within the course of a game that they are hot, and that they can hit any shot they put up, frequently throw up airballs, shots that hit backboard and not rim, shots that are ridiculously off-line. etc., as if whatever magic basketball pixie made all of their previous shots go in will make those go in as well.

I've seen it happen so many times that I can almost set my watch by it ... if I owned a watch, that is.

The ancient Greeks had a word for this: Hubris. Dunno if the Frisians have a word for it, too, but if they do, this is the time for someone to share it with the rest of us.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Confidence is a huge factor in how you play.  . . . We statisticians seek truth, but we also risk being killjoys.

Agreed, Ypsi, confidence affects play . . . though one possible effect may be that a player who has just made shots starts overshooting (from overconfidence) and the one who has just missed now fails to take the same shot moments later (I'm sure I witness this).  Perhaps--I'm musing--that's one reason that, as KnightSlappy rightly reminds us, players in many studies (both pro and college) have been found not to become more likely to make the next shot after just making several. 

Is stating that fact of life being a killjoy?--or is it quite the opposite, by encouraging players who've just missed a couple shots to put it out of mind.  The basketball universe starts afresh on the next shot.  And if you're a teammate, don't lose confidence in a good player who has just had a bad spell. 

Good point.  About 3 seconds separated among my proudest and most embarrassing moments in basketball.  I blocked the shot of a guy 10 inches taller than me (!), saw a teammate down court but felt 'dammit, this is MY ball', and (with way too much adrenaline in my system) BLEW the freakin' lay-up!

[Not sure that had anything to do with the discussion, but ... ]

[Mr. Ypsi]

Players who believe within the course of a game that they are hot, and that they can hit any shot they put up, frequently throw up airballs, shots that hit backboard and not rim, shots that are ridiculously off-line. etc., as if whatever magic basketball pixie made all of their previous shots go in will make those go in as well.

I've seen it happen so many times that I can almost set my watch by it ... if I owned a watch, that is.

The ancient Greeks had a word for this: Hubris. Dunno if the Frisians have a word for it, too, but if they do, this is the time for someone to share it with the rest of us.

On the other hand, you and I both saw the game by Andy Draayer 6 years ago at Wheaton.  THAT was a 'hot hand' - whether within the realm of statistical anomalies or not!

[Gregory Sager]

Players who believe within the course of a game that they are hot, and that they can hit any shot they put up, frequently throw up airballs, shots that hit backboard and not rim, shots that are ridiculously off-line. etc., as if whatever magic basketball pixie made all of their previous shots go in will make those go in as well.

I've seen it happen so many times that I can almost set my watch by it ... if I owned a watch, that is.

The ancient Greeks had a word for this: Hubris. Dunno if the Frisians have a word for it, too, but if they do, this is the time for someone to share it with the rest of us.

On the other hand, you and I both saw the game by Andy Draayer 6 years ago at Wheaton.  THAT was a 'hot hand' - whether within the realm of statistical anomalies or not!

That was the exception that proves the rule. All of the Calvin people I spoke to that night said that Draayer had never had a night like that before -- and that was even taking into consideration the fact that Draayer was a very good shooter.

[sac]

Zack Novak was 6-8 and Stu Douglas 0-3......I would have bet $1,000,000 that Novak takes the shot in the wanning seconds, yet it was Douglas who speared the Spartans.

Hot hand theories be damned says John. 

[KnightSlappy]

Players who believe within the course of a game that they are hot, and that they can hit any shot they put up, frequently throw up airballs, shots that hit backboard and not rim, shots that are ridiculously off-line. etc., as if whatever magic basketball pixie made all of their previous shots go in will make those go in as well.

I've seen it happen so many times that I can almost set my watch by it ... if I owned a watch, that is.

The ancient Greeks had a word for this: Hubris. Dunno if the Frisians have a word for it, too, but if they do, this is the time for someone to share it with the rest of us.

On the other hand, you and I both saw the game by Andy Draayer 6 years ago at Wheaton.  THAT was a 'hot hand' - whether within the realm of statistical anomalies or not!

That was the exception that proves the rule. All of the Calvin people I spoke to that night said that Draayer had never had a night like that before -- and that was even taking into consideration the fact that Draayer was a very good shooter.

Just quickly looking at 3-pt percentages from Andy Draayer that year:

8 of 12 (I believe this was "the night"): http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/mwhe5.htm

9 of 14: http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/cm0212.htm

7 of 11: http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/caol0209.htm

6 of 7: http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/game-11.htm

[HopeConvert]

nd'!

We statisticians seek truth, but we also risk being killjoys.

Holy epistemological error, Mr. Y! If there's one thing statisticians don't seek, it's truth. They seek probabilities. There's a world of difference between those two things.

[HopeConvert]

Always put the ball in the hand of your best player.

If Brad Schnyders beats Hope on Saturday, so be it. But believe me, nothing would make me happier than Calvin having Schnyders or Powell taking the last shot. Just like last year I was thrilled to see Veltema inbounding the ball with 2 seconds left.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Players who believe within the course of a game that they are hot, and that they can hit any shot they put up, frequently throw up airballs, shots that hit backboard and not rim, shots that are ridiculously off-line. etc., as if whatever magic basketball pixie made all of their previous shots go in will make those go in as well.

I've seen it happen so many times that I can almost set my watch by it ... if I owned a watch, that is.

The ancient Greeks had a word for this: Hubris. Dunno if the Frisians have a word for it, too, but if they do, this is the time for someone to share it with the rest of us.

On the other hand, you and I both saw the game by Andy Draayer 6 years ago at Wheaton.  THAT was a 'hot hand' - whether within the realm of statistical anomalies or not!

That was the exception that proves the rule. All of the Calvin people I spoke to that night said that Draayer had never had a night like that before -- and that was even taking into consideration the fact that Draayer was a very good shooter.

Just quickly looking at 3-pt percentages from Andy Draayer that year:

8 of 12 (I believe this was "the night"): http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/mwhe5.htm

9 of 14: http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/cm0212.htm

7 of 11: http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/caol0209.htm

6 of 7: http://www.calvin.edu/sports/mens/basketball/results/2004-05/game-11.htm

So he had 4 HOT games that year, games in which he shot a blistering .682 from three.  The rest of that year, he shot .400 from three.  No hot hand, huh?