MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[SBell]

cannot confirm but that's an easier pill to swallow than the Tommy transfer whispers I've been hearing for months.  Hard to believe someone from that family would transfer though....

Besides his sister?

[Erm Schmigget]

cannot confirm but that's an easier pill to swallow than the Tommy transfer whispers I've been hearing for months.  Hard to believe someone from that family would transfer though....

Besides his sister?

...and his brother.  (pretty sure the tongue was planted firmly in the cheek.)

[hoopdreams]

thank you Erm, you beat me to it!  One can include big jon too.

So...I'm working out with a kid yesterday and started thinking about the "hot hand" issue.  We set up a gun, set it to kick out balls every 2 seconds, shooting sets of 40 jumpers (all mid range because we lifted legs just prior).  Granted there is no defense and he was either catching and shooting, or taking 2 steps, jab stepping and coming back to the pass.

1st set- he makes first 33 shots, ends up 38-40.
2nd set- 36-40
3rd set-35-40

after shooting 50 ft's, we go back to mid range..... because he is clearly not a 90% shooter from the floor, one should expect a "cold streak" (apparently no such thing either) but he goes 35, 31, 36 out of 40. So at some point he will go 4-8 out of 40? Or will he normally simply shoot the standard 35-45%?

[ziggy]

thank you Erm, you beat me to it!  One can include big jon too.

So...I'm working out with a kid yesterday and started thinking about the "hot hand" issue.  We set up a gun, set it to kick out balls every 2 seconds, shooting sets of 40 jumpers (all mid range because we lifted legs just prior).  Granted there is no defense and he was either catching and shooting, or taking 2 steps, jab stepping and coming back to the pass.

1st set- he makes first 33 shots, ends up 38-40.
2nd set- 36-40
3rd set-35-40

after shooting 50 ft's, we go back to mid range..... because he is clearly not a 90% shooter from the floor, one should expect a "cold streak" (apparently no such thing either) but he goes 35, 31, 36 out of 40. So at some point he will go 4-8 out of 40? Or will he normally simply shoot the standard 35-45%?

Your situation is so controlled that you're severely restricting the reach of the standard distribution. I'm not sure why you would say "he is clearly not a 90% shooter from the floor", he appears to be from the situation you set up. Of course he won't be a 90% shooter in a game situation, but that doesn't mean he can't be a 90% shooter under your controlled circumstances.

[KnightSlappy]

thank you Erm, you beat me to it!  One can include big jon too.

So...I'm working out with a kid yesterday and started thinking about the "hot hand" issue.  We set up a gun, set it to kick out balls every 2 seconds, shooting sets of 40 jumpers (all mid range because we lifted legs just prior).  Granted there is no defense and he was either catching and shooting, or taking 2 steps, jab stepping and coming back to the pass.

1st set- he makes first 33 shots, ends up 38-40.
2nd set- 36-40
3rd set-35-40

after shooting 50 ft's, we go back to mid range..... because he is clearly not a 90% shooter from the floor, one should expect a "cold streak" (apparently no such thing either) but he goes 35, 31, 36 out of 40. So at some point he will go 4-8 out of 40? Or will he normally simply shoot the standard 35-45%?

In a total of 240 shots, he makes 211 for 88%. This is probably pretty close to his unguarded practice-setting mid-range shooting ability.

Given that he's a 88% shooter, the binomial distribution gives us the following probabilities for number of makes in each 40 attempt set:

40 -- 1.0%
39 -- 3.0%
38 -- 9.0%
37 -- 15.0%
36 -- 19.0%
35 -- 18.0%
34 -- 15.0%
33 -- 10.0%
32 -- 6.0%
31 -- 3.0%
30 -- 1.0%

We would expect him to make fewer than 30 shots in fewer than 1% of his sets.

We see streaks all the time in sports. Terry Mills once made 13 consecutive three point attempts. We just don't see stretches of "hot" or "cold" any more frequently than probability theory would predict.

Going back to the kid in the workout, it would be interesting to see his shots mapped out in a 1-0-1-1-1-1-0-1 fashion (where 1 is a make and a 0 is a miss). We could compare how often the hot streaks occur compared to the binomial theory. We would expect the following streaks:

2-in-a-row: 77%
3-in-a-row: 68%
4-in-a-row: 60%
5-in-a-row: 53%
6-in-a-row: 46%
7-in-a-row: 41%
8-in-a-row: 36%
9-in-a-row: 32%
10-in-a-row: 28%
11-in-a-row: 25%
12-in-a-row: 22%
13-in-a-row: 19%
14-in-a-row: 17%
15-in-a-row: 15%

That is, if you chopped his attempts up into groups of, say, 11 shots, we'd expect him to be 11-11 in 25% of the groups.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Sorry to interrupt the grammar and statistics lessons with something (else) non-d3, but at least it has a Michigan tie!

Kalamazoo's Derek Jeter had quite a day!  He became the 28th man to ever get 3,000 hits (and only the second, with Wade Boggs, to have #3,000 be a HR), then just kept going.  He finished with a 5 for 5 day, with his fifth hit driving in the winning run, raising his BA 21 points in a single game!  (He also bowed out of the all-star game to rest his calf(?) injury, allowing the much more deserving (this year) Tiger Jhonny Peralta to be an all-star.)  I suspect his smile will be pretty constant right thru the all-star break!

[ziggy]

Sorry to interrupt the grammar and statistics lessons with something (else) non-d3, but at least it has a Michigan tie!

Kalamazoo's Derek Jeter had quite a day!  He became the 28th man to ever get 3,000 hits (and only the second, with Wade Boggs, to have #3,000 be a HR), then just kept going.  He finished with a 5 for 5 day, with his fifth hit driving in the winning run, raising his BA 21 points in a single game!  (He also bowed out of the all-star game to rest his calf(?) injury, allowing the much more deserving (this year) Tiger Jhonny Peralta to be an all-star.)  I suspect his smile will be pretty constant right thru the all-star break!

I believe he also brought about world peace, or something like that.

[hope1]

i  think we all need some basketball

[Gregory Sager]

Sorry to interrupt the grammar and statistics lessons with something (else) non-d3, but at least it has a Michigan tie!

Kalamazoo's Derek Jeter had quite a day!  He became the 28th man to ever get 3,000 hits (and only the second, with Wade Boggs, to have #3,000 be a HR), then just kept going.  He finished with a 5 for 5 day, with his fifth hit driving in the winning run, raising his BA 21 points in a single game!  (He also bowed out of the all-star game to rest his calf(?) injury, allowing the much more deserving (this year) Tiger Jhonny Peralta to be an all-star.)  I suspect his smile will be pretty constant right thru the all-star break!

If I had spent the last decade and a half dating, among others, a Miss Universe, a former Miss Teen USA, and such Hollywood hotties as Jessica Biel and Minka Kelly, my smile would be pretty constant, too.

[Civic Minded]

Did everyone weather the storm ok?  Lots of trees and power lines still down in Holland...

[sac]

The Hope campus didn't fare so well, as the following photos attest.  Hope lost some very large, old and beautiful trees today.

http://www.hope.edu/pr/gallery/11stormdamage.html

[Civic Minded]

Much havoc around the city.  Tree across River by the library, main lines down across Pine, southbound traffice across the bridge prohibited all day (not sure if they're allowing traffic there yet), many many trees laying on powerlines, waiting for rescue.  HPD and BPW urging those of us who want to take a look to stay at home and out of the way.  A few pictures on the Sentinel site, in addition to the good ones in the link sac provided.

[KnightSlappy]

The Hope campus didn't fare so well, as the following photos attest.  Hope lost some very large, old and beautiful trees today.

http://www.hope.edu/pr/gallery/11stormdamage.html

Even the trees want to get out of there.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Sorry to hear of the havoc in Holland.

In Ypsi we got about 15-20 minutes of near-hurricane force rain and wind, but I saw no trees down (a lot of limbs, but no trees).  Probably about an inch of rain in that brief period, plus another half inch before and after - since there was little damage, a welcome respite from the heat and dryness which was already making lawns look like August.

[sac]

The Hope campus didn't fare so well, as the following photos attest.  Hope lost some very large, old and beautiful trees today.

http://www.hope.edu/pr/gallery/11stormdamage.html

Even the trees want to get out of there.

At least Biff's attempt at a lame joke was funny.