MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[sac]

It really depends on what you mean though. What chance of winning do we want the team that's behind to have for it to be 'close'? 25%, 10%, 5%?

Just keep it simplistic, I'm only really looking for number.  I realize its difficult as games and margins have different characteristics.

I guess think of it this way, if you knew nothing of either team and picked up a boxscore, what margin would be your cutoff to consider a game close going into the final 5 minutes.

[KnightSlappy]

Using data from the 2009-10 Division I season, with five minutes left, we get (approximate) win expectancies of:

Home Margin	Home Chance of Winning
-7	0.05
-6	0.11
-5	0.18
-4	0.24
-3	0.31
-2	0.38
-1	0.44
0	0.51
1	0.58
2	0.64
3	0.71
4	0.77
5	0.84
6	0.91
7	0.97

I'll say 5 points is close.

[Busted Stuff]

It really depends on what you mean though. What chance of winning do we want the team that's behind to have for it to be 'close'? 25%, 10%, 5%?

Just keep it simplistic, I'm only really looking for number.  I realize its difficult as games and margins have different characteristics.

I guess think of it this way, if you knew nothing of either team and picked up a boxscore, what margin would be your cutoff to consider a game close going into the final 5 minutes.

The pace of play is also a factor which could be considered.  In a very high scoring game, each possession becomes less and less decisive relative to a low scoring, low possession game.  For example, a 4 point lead in a high-paced game can be overcome quicker (via more possessions/opportunities) than in a low-paced game.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Grey Street, you beat me to it.  If Grinnell is one of the teams, even 15 points is virtually a tie game!

[hope52]

who dose calvin play friday  night

[Civic Minded]

It really depends on what you mean though. What chance of winning do we want the team that's behind to have for it to be 'close'? 25%, 10%, 5%?

Just keep it simplistic, I'm only really looking for number.  I realize its difficult as games and margins have different characteristics.

I guess think of it this way, if you knew nothing of either team and picked up a boxscore, what margin would be your cutoff to consider a game close going into the final 5 minutes.

Because I'm a cynic, I'd need at least 15.  Anything less, with 5 minutes left, and it's still a crap shoot, IMHO.

[Mr. Ypsi]

sac, an interesting question, though perhaps unanswerable.  Too many variables, and then there are always the outliers.  (Growing up, either late 50s or early 60s, I attended a Bradley game where they won by 3 - in regulation time - a game that they trailed by 7 with FIFTEEN seconds left.  They scored, then stole 3 consecutive inbounding passes, on two of which they were fouled and made the FT.  And this, of course, was before the 3-point shot.)

After that Bradley game, I never relax unless the lead is double digits while the clock is single digits (and I do mean seconds)!

To sort of answer your question, if we trail by 12 with 5 minutes to go, I don't abandon hope, but I am VERY nervous!

[KnightSlappy]

I think there's a big difference between calling a game 'close' and being one million percent confident in the outcome. A 20 point halftime margin isn't close, but we can probably all recall instances in which that deficit was overcome.

I would say that for the game to be considered close, a team wouldn't have to alter their game plan or playing style to still win.

[sac]

The only reason I asked is because I'm probably going to keep track of how teams perform in the final 5 minutes of a close game.  Depending on the results I might share them or it just becomes something for my own amusement.

Originally I was going to use 10 points.  But I ran into the Alma boxscore from Wed night.
http://www.miaa.org/mbb/stats/1112/ls-acm.htm

Alma was down 11 when the clock ticked past 5 minutes, it ended up being a 9 point final margin and was 7 with 1:30 to play.  Under my original 10 point criteria I should ignore this, but it seems like I should really count it.  I'm sure the nervous Laker fans would agree that was a close call.

So that's how I arrived at sac's question of the day.


In the meantime I've thought about it some, and I've determined 12 to be a reasonable cutoff (again just for simplicities sake).  With a 35 second shot clock I think you can probably count on having a minimum of 5 possessions, 5 3-point shots is 15 points,.....15 point comebacks with 5 minutes to go seems like miracle territory.   12 seems incredible but still doable though highly unlikely, at the very least I feel like with a 12 point lead, there's still work to do to make sure the game doesn't become a 1 or 2 possession free for all.

Thanks for your responses.

[KnightSlappy]

Depending on how much work you want to put into it, you may want to create three buckets. Say, 0-6 points is "tight", 7-12 is "close", and 13+ is "comfortable".

[ziggy]

You guys are all overthinking this, let me simplify.
(edit: let me try this again. Give me a break, I am on a vacation day today.)

A game is "close" with five minutes remaining when trailing team is within (home team's score)*(.15)

[calvin_grad]

You guys are all overthinking this, let me simplify.

A game is close with five minutes remaining if (trailing team's score) <= (home team's score)*(.15)

Might want to check your math and edit that post there, ziggy.  By that logic, 100-14 is a close game.

14 <=  100*.15 = 15

[Dark Knight]

You guys are all overthinking this, let me simplify.

A game is close with five minutes remaining if (trailing team's score) <= (home team's score)*(.15)

Behind by 1 point per minute left = starting to feel time pressure
2 points per minute = significant time pressure
3 points per minute = almost insurmountable time pressure

[Happy Calvin Guy]

being one million percent confident in the outcome.

Why stop there?

[realist]

who dose calvin play friday  night

You might want to make the following site a favorite:  http://www.miaa.org/

They normally have all the schedules for the entire MIAA posted for the next few days.  They have the links for live stats, audio, and web streaming (if available).  They also do a decent job posting results.

Todays posting shows all the bball games (mens and womens) as well as the various teams: football, soceer, cross country in NCCA's