MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[calvin_grad]

What makes this pretty unusual I think is that two of the conferences 'usual suspects' have been pretty suspect.  Albion and Calvin combined to go just 9-13.

Maybe Calvin can sneak one out against Hope at home, but the only other thing they are playing for is the right to lose to Hope in the MIAA championship game.  The 2011/12 version of the Knights is going nowhere.   

[wiz]

What makes this pretty unusual I think is that two of the conferences 'usual suspects' have been pretty suspect.  Albion and Calvin combined to go just 9-13.

Maybe Calvin can sneak one out against Hope at home, but the only other thing they are playing for is the right to lose to Hope in the MIAA championship game.  The 2011/12 version of the Knights is going nowhere.   

Apparently, Hope thinks they are going someplace.  Interesting pre-conference remark by Krombeen in Saturday's Grand Rapids Press.
"This is the type of game we're going to see down the road in the NCAA (Division III) tournament," Krombeen said.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

And in the Holland Sentinel the same quote is this:

"This is the type of game we're going to see down the road in big games in the NCAA tournament and conference games," Krombeen said.

[hoopdreams]

There have multiple quotes this season, by players and coach, referring to a grander picture beyond the MIAA season.  Based on what I have watched, the boxscores I've scanned and the "friendly banter" tossed around in this forum, I think a trip to the "big dance"  is "in the cards"  for the Dutchmen this season.  Baring injury, excessive foul trouble, or a scrappy zone catching them on an "off" shooting night, this will continue to be a fun ride for this group.

[scottiedawg]

Very impressive season thus far from Hope. 10-1 with their only loss coming to D-1 W. Michigan. #2 in Massey ratings with the 2nd toughest strength of schedule. Augie Superfan has them #1 with the 2nd toughest strength of schedule. Maroonandgold had them as the #1 team in the Great Lakes Region, and that was before the Marietta win. D3Hoops.com has them at #15 in the week 4 pool; they will likely move 3-5 spots higher when the new poll is released later today. Arguably the playing levels of Overway and Neil are not where they were at the conclusion of last year. I'd fully expect them to get back to that high level. Add to that the continued development of NVA and this team's best basketball is in front of them. Go Hope!

[scottiedawg]

Hope adds 92 votes (3rd most of the poll) and moves up 3 spots to 12th. While still many people would argue Hope should be higher, the actual voters must either see something different and be on their own island or be succumbing to serious anchoring bias. Hope's lack of D3 games likely hurts them.

[sac]

Hope adds 92 votes (3rd most of the poll) and moves up 3 spots to 12th. While still many people would argue Hope should be higher, the actual voters must either see something different and be on their own island or be succumbing to serious anchoring bias. Hope's lack of D3 games likely hurts them.

I think most pollsters were waiting for the result with Marietta.  In the meantime Marietta has stumbled to 4 losses, 3 of them vs D3.  This probably has resulted in pollsters questioning Marietta and just exactly how big of a win that really was for Hope, as the Pioneers have gone from top 10 to out of the poll.

[sac]

I put the supercomputer through the paces to figure out some efficiencies after non-conference play.   

OFFENSE

Trine        107.73
Hope       107.04
Adrian      104.20
Alma        102.17
Kzoo          98.08
Calvin        97.02
Albion        95.39
Olivet        88.48

Calvin and Albion really stand out here, both are well below their historical norms.    From last season, Adrian's improvement has been dramatic, Trine's less dramatic but solid improvement.


DEFENSE

Hope       92.65
Adrian      98.60
Calvin      101.04
Albion      102.34
Trine        102.50
Kzoo       105.85
Olivet      106.05
Alma        106.55

Overall this is pretty mediocre, in fact I thinks its more mediocre than last year.  Hope has performed at a much higher level on defense than they had at this time last year.  A historically good defensive league seems to be forgetting how to play defense.


OVERALL
Subtracting 200 by defense and adding it to offense.

1. Hope      214.39
2. Adrian    205.60
3. Trine      205.23
4. Calvin     195.97
5. Alma      195.61
6. Albion     193.04
7. Kzoo      192.23
8. Olivet     182.44

Taking strength of schedule's into account, I might move Calvin above Trine (Trine's sched is very weak) and Albion and Kzoo above Alma but only slightly.  Adrian has actually played a pretty good schedule, they look a solid #2 right now.


Hope has performed a little better than last year at this point.  Like last year the middle looks really bunched up, and we could end up with title race similar to last where one team keeps winning while everyone beats each other up, resulting in an early conclusion to the regular season chase.

Its our first year with the 4 team tournament format (terrible), and it seems it should come right down the last week.  It would be even better if it came down to the last day.   Trine could be the team on the hot seat at the end of the year, its not hard to imagine them needing a couple wins to secure a tournament spot in the final week.......they finish with Calvin and @ Hope.


Pace of play

Albion and Adrian are the slowest, you'll see about 5 fewer possessions per team in those games.  Alma is the racehorse team with about 5 more possessions per team per game.

Everyone else pretty much plays the same.  The only real clash of styles will occur when Alma plays Adrian and Albion.

[KnightSlappy]

OVERALL
Subtracting 200 by defense and adding it to offense.

1. Hope      214.39
2. Adrian    205.60
3. Trine      205.23
4. Calvin     195.97
5. Alma      195.61
6. Albion     193.04
7. Kzoo      192.23
8. Olivet     182.44

I really like just doing straight OEff - DEff for an overall number. Much more intuitive who's positive and negative in efficiency margin, and by how much. (It's just your number minus the initial 200 really)

Hope    14.4
Adrian  5.60
Trine    5.23
Calvin   -4.02
Alma    -4.38
Albion   -6.95
Kzoo    -7.77
Olivet  -18.07

So, per 100 possessions, Hope scores just over 14 more points than they allow. Olivet gives up more than 18 more than they score.

[Titan Q]

Hope adds 92 votes (3rd most of the poll) and moves up 3 spots to 12th. While still many people would argue Hope should be higher, the actual voters must either see something different and be on their own island or be succumbing to serious anchoring bias. Hope's lack of D3 games likely hurts them.

One of those three Division III games was a 1-point victory at home over a Wheaton team the voters don't seem real sold on.  (The Thunder just moved back into the poll this week and sit at #23.)  Another is against a Marietta team which is no longer held in Top 25 regard, as sac pointed out.

I think it's fair if the voters are looking for a bit more data from both Hope, and their opponents.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Has anyone heard anything about where Ryan Majerle could end up? 3

Separately, I agree with TitanQ. It's hard to fully judge a Hope team that has only played 3 D3 opponents. Hope has faced some solid NAIA competition but in the end the only games that really matter are against D3 opponents.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Minor point of clarification - the Hope win over Wheaton was at a neutral site (Calvin).

[sflzman]

Everyone else pretty much plays the same.  The only real clash of styles will occur when Alma plays Adrian and Albion.

That's how the Alma Adrian games were last year. It was two completely different games. Adrian controlled the pace in the first meeting and won easily, while Alma was able to play at their own style in meeting two and they pulled the mild upset..

[KnightSlappy]

Hope adds 92 votes (3rd most of the poll) and moves up 3 spots to 12th. While still many people would argue Hope should be higher, the actual voters must either see something different and be on their own island or be succumbing to serious anchoring bias. Hope's lack of D3 games likely hurts them.

One of those three Division III games was a 1-point victory at home over a Wheaton team the voters don't seem real sold on.  (The Thunder just moved back into the poll this week and sit at #23.)  Another is against a Marietta team which is no longer held in Top 25 regard, as sac pointed out.

I think it's fair if the voters are looking for a bit more data from both Hope, and their opponents.

Voters would clearly prefer losses to Salisbury...

[Pat Coleman]

I think most of the voters know that a team playing its first game on the road against a team playing its fourth game probably gives away a few points. Similar with a team that loses to an NAIA team at the beginning of the season.