MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[wiz]

Great win for Trine in so many more ways than conference standings and wins in the MIAA.  The wins helps them gain respect and credibility with other teams and with recruits!

I think Trine is getting better but not to the point you and Sac give them credit for.  Just last week Trine lost at home to Albion.  Albion has much less talent than Trine.  Trine looked lackadasical and was not playing as a team.  It takes more than one year to give a coach and team the credit you and Sac are giving Trine. Brooks looks like he has Trine going in the right direction, but I believe more time is needed before we can say they will compete for a MIAA championship.  MIAA championships are not easily taken away from Hope and Calvin.  When is the last time someone other than Hope or Calvin has won the regular season championship or the tournament championship?

Basketball is a game of runs.  We see that often in individual games but we have also seen it in a broader scope.  The Hope and Calvin rivalry has been talked about often and much has been made each year about how, over history, the rivalry is so close in games won and lost and in the margin of total points.  But, even within that context, we look at years of runs where one of the teams may dominate for nearly a decade.  And, as we go way back in history http://miaa.org/mbb/mbbchamp.html, we see years where other institutions have also had their runs. 

I think the caution sac is giving is that we should all be prepared that there are some new kids on the block and they are going to make some runs in the league championships as well.  It may not be imminent to the point that it will happen next year, but don't be surprised if it is soon.  It will make the league much more fun to watch and, I suspect, improve the level of play for all.

[almcguirejr]

Hope 75  Olivet 60

http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/1112/0215olho.htm


Hope played like wussies tonight.

I could probably leave it there but I won't.  This was the first time in a long, long time I've seen Hope play so timid and hesitant.  Part of me would like to say they weren't ready, they were lazy, not focused.  It was probably a lot of that.   For long periods of the game Hope's two MVP buddies struggled to make shots they've made all year.  Nate Snuggerud just struggled to catch the ball and hang on to it.  Stuff like that will happen from time to time, you just never expect both to struggle in one game.

I did not go to Angola last night.  I listened on the radio.  It sounded to me that Calvin played exactly like Sac's description of Hope's play last night.  Calvin is not very good when Tyler Kruis doesn't play well.  2 points and 3 rebounds isn't good enough from Kruis.  Giving up 18 points to Joe Pearcy is poor.  Picking up your 4th foul 18 seconds (at the 17:32 mark)after your third when your sub is probably at the scorer's table waiting to come in isn't smart.  22 turnovers last night vs an average of 12 in other league games shows a lack of focus.  Allowing layup after layup the 2nd half show a lack of desire.  I have seen enough Calvin basketball to know Calvin's player's aren't coached that way.  The players knew what was on the line last night.  They didn't compete the second half. 

[HopeConvert]

According to offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, 2006 was nearly identical (though ever so slightly better) than the 2011 Calvin team.

The 2007, 2008, and 2009 Knights all rated as better teams than '06.

So you are saying that those teams underachieved? I really think everyone is saying the same thing, just either looking at the glass as either half full or half empty.

Mostly what I'm going off of is offensive efficiency rating minus defensive efficiency rating. This tells how many more points each Calvin team scored than their opponents did (per 100 possessions).

Calvin's 2006 team played in 8 games (including an OT victory over Trine) that were decided by less than 5 points (except the Trine game) and won 7 of them (the only loss to Hope in the NCAA tourney). They won two games by one point. It would be more interesting to see what their efficiency ratings were in the last five minutes of the games. The indicators are abstract, for they don't show that Calvin played very well in close games. Their six losses were by 14, 8, 15, 7, 18, 13, and 3. Only the last one was close.

What's the margin of error? It would seem to me 3 games would not be far off. It is, in any case, not a "big time" overachievement.

[sac]

What I remember about the 2006 Calvin team is that they survived a couple early MIAA scares which kept them in position to contend.  It also probably kept their confidence up.  They continued to improve and by the end of the season they were every bit as good as their MIAA Champion credential suggested.  Hope lost 2 games on the road by 1 at Calvin and a thorough demolition at Albion.  Calvin was able to win at Albion by 3 and that was the 1 game difference in the standings.


In the first 5 MIAA games that year Calvin had these results:

Calvin 64 Alma 60
Calvin 82 Adrian 68
Hope 73 Calvin 55
Calvin 73 Olivet 71
Calvin 69 Albion 66

This 5 game stretch ended up defining their season.  They could have easily lost 3 or 4 games here and been to far back in the MIAA race to contend.   Fun season that one.

[realist]

Sac does raise a good point that Hope and Calvin do need to be aware what the other conference schools are doing. To sit back, and rest on past performance would be folly of the first order. 
However, when you look at the history of the MIAA for the last 40 or 50 years only the 70's showed any semblance of anything other than complete and total Calvin Hope domination.  Even in the 70's Calvin had outright championship or shared the title 70% of the time.  Five schools had or shared the title in the 70's.
One has to ask how is it possible that these two can consistantly dominate.  Do they cheat? 
It is very possible that one of the other schools gets the right combination of players, and coaches, and for a year or two makes some noise, but sustaining that, and moving into a dominant position is not likely.  Albion made a run 03-05, but has dropped off since that time.  The 03-05 era had the proper combination of players and coaches to make good things happen.
I will worry about Calvin and Hope losing their dominant positions when by their actions they abdicate the throne. 
The other consideration is if all the other MIAA schools suddenly have tremendous growth and thieir student populations rival those of Calvin and Hope.  At these present levels:
Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444; Adrian 1,550;  and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really. 

[KnightSlappy]

According to offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, 2006 was nearly identical (though ever so slightly better) than the 2011 Calvin team.

The 2007, 2008, and 2009 Knights all rated as better teams than '06.

So you are saying that those teams underachieved? I really think everyone is saying the same thing, just either looking at the glass as either half full or half empty.

Mostly what I'm going off of is offensive efficiency rating minus defensive efficiency rating. This tells how many more points each Calvin team scored than their opponents did (per 100 possessions).

Calvin's 2006 team played in 8 games (including an OT victory over Trine) that were decided by less than 5 points (except the Trine game) and won 7 of them (the only loss to Hope in the NCAA tourney). They won two games by one point. It would be more interesting to see what their efficiency ratings were in the last five minutes of the games. The indicators are abstract, for they don't show that Calvin played very well in close games. Their six losses were by 14, 8, 15, 7, 18, 13, and 3. Only the last one was close.

What's the margin of error? It would seem to me 3 games would not be far off. It is, in any case, not a "big time" overachievement.

One standard deviation is 1.8 games. No MIAA team has been farther away from their projection (since I've been keeping track) than the 2006 Calvin team was.

[KnightSlappy]

Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444 and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really.

What effect does size have on quality of play? I would suspect basketball talent gets distributed much closer to a per roster slot basis, and not per enrollment slot.

[gohope]

Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444 and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really.

What effect does size have on quality of play? I would suspect basketball talent gets distributed much closer to a per roster slot basis, and not per enrollment slot.

Wouldn't Grace Bible College fit in as a good example here?  "Grand Rapids, Michigan, September 26, 2011 – Grace Bible College has seen steady growth in enrollment over the past three years, starting this semester with 233 students on campus, up from 207 last year. "  Current Men's BB Record: 18-9,

[BogeyMan]

Great win for Trine in so many more ways than conference standings and wins in the MIAA.  The wins helps them gain respect and credibility with other teams and with recruits!

I think Trine is getting better but not to the point you and Sac give them credit for.  Just last week Trine lost at home to Albion.  Albion has much less talent than Trine.  Trine looked lackadasical and was not playing as a team.  It takes more than one year to give a coach and team the credit you and Sac are giving Trine. Brooks looks like he has Trine going in the right direction, but I believe more time is needed before we can say they will compete for a MIAA championship.  MIAA championships are not easily taken away from Hope and Calvin.  When is the last time someone other than Hope or Calvin has won the regular season championship or the tournament championship?

Basketball is a game of runs.  We see that often in individual games but we have also seen it in a broader scope.  The Hope and Calvin rivalry has been talked about often and much has been made each year about how, over history, the rivalry is so close in games won and lost and in the margin of total points.  But, even within that context, we look at years of runs where one of the teams may dominate for nearly a decade.  And, as we go way back in history http://miaa.org/mbb/mbbchamp.html, we see years where other institutions have also had their runs. 

I think the caution sac is giving is that we should all be prepared that there are some new kids on the block and they are going to make some runs in the league championships as well.  It may not be imminent to the point that it will happen next year, but don't be surprised if it is soon.  It will make the league much more fun to watch and, I suspect, improve the level of play for all.

I for one will be surprised if it happens soon.  Yes, there are new kids on the block.  Albion, Trine, Alma, and Adrian all have coaches with four years or less in the league.  I see very good coaches in all four programs, but I don't see MIAA Championships.  In the last 63 years there have only been 12 teams to win a MIAA Championship other than Hope and Calvin.  I'm sorry but I don't see that changing anytime soon.  The tradition, church affiliation and facilities give Hope and Calvin a huge advantage over the rest of the schools.  I have the highest respect for athletic programs that can develope the tradition that Hope and Calvin have done.  They deserve all the accolades they get. It will take more than a few young coaches that may win a game here and there against Hope and Calvin. Hope and Calvin may have a year like Calvin is having this year, but it won't happen often nor will last very long.  I wish the young coaches the best, but they have a huge mountain to climb! 

[BogeyMan]

Instead of enrollment being used as a barometer.  I would like to see what each basketball program has for a budget and how much they spend on assistant coaches. 

[Pat Coleman]

Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444 and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really.

What effect does size have on quality of play? I would suspect basketball talent gets distributed much closer to a per roster slot basis, and not per enrollment slot.

Wouldn't Grace Bible College fit in as a good example here?  "Grand Rapids, Michigan, September 26, 2011 – Grace Bible College has seen steady growth in enrollment over the past three years, starting this semester with 233 students on campus, up from 207 last year. "  Current Men's BB Record: 18-9,

They offer scholarships, correct? That changes the formula as well.

[sac]

Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444 and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really.

What effect does size have on quality of play? I would suspect basketball talent gets distributed much closer to a per roster slot basis, and not per enrollment slot.

Wouldn't Grace Bible College fit in as a good example here?  "Grand Rapids, Michigan, September 26, 2011 – Grace Bible College has seen steady growth in enrollment over the past three years, starting this semester with 233 students on campus, up from 207 last year. "  Current Men's BB Record: 18-9,

They offer scholarships, correct? That changes the formula as well.

The Bible Tigers are non-scholarship.

[ziggy]

Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444 and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really.

What effect does size have on quality of play? I would suspect basketball talent gets distributed much closer to a per roster slot basis, and not per enrollment slot.

Wouldn't Grace Bible College fit in as a good example here?  "Grand Rapids, Michigan, September 26, 2011 – Grace Bible College has seen steady growth in enrollment over the past three years, starting this semester with 233 students on campus, up from 207 last year. "  Current Men's BB Record: 18-9,

They offer scholarships, correct? That changes the formula as well.

The Bible Tigers are non-scholarship.

But the Bible Tiger Ballers pay far less than their D-III brethren.

edit: I can quantify it based on a quick web search. The on-campus GBC student will save $12,400 per year over the on-campus Calvin student.

[sac]

Instead of enrollment being used as a barometer.  I would like to see what each basketball program has for a budget and how much they spend on assistant coaches.

Assistant coaches salaries are not provided, probably a part of general expenses.  Also coaches salaries are far from their actual salaries as faculty.

Expenses reported in 2010 here..... http://www.fldcu.org/michigan/
Adrian--  1,000,000
Albion--  970,000
Alma--    705,000
Calvin--  480,000
Hope--    940,000
Kalamazoo--  650,000
Olivet--  810,000
Trine--  810,000

I'm sure travel is the largest expense.  In 2010 Calvin had one trip out West, otherwise did not leave the State of Michigan.  I don't know why they seem so low.  Maybe they should get more serious.

[wiz]

Olivet 1.145; Kalamazoo 1,340; Trine 1,400; Alma 1,444 and the biggie Albion 1,925 if Calvin and Hope don't dominate shame on them.  The advantages that their size offer these two schools is staggering really.

What effect does size have on quality of play? I would suspect basketball talent gets distributed much closer to a per roster slot basis, and not per enrollment slot.

Agreed.  The only enrollment that matters is the 15 on the basketball team.  Whether the rest of the school population is in the hundreds or in the thousands is a moot point.