MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[realist]

Saturday score predictions as calculated by raw efficiency numbers:

Calvin 73, Albion 57
Adrian 65, Hope 58
Olivet 71, Kalamazoo 64
Trine 76, Alma 63 -- this one is probably most affected by relative schedule strengths, expect Alma to be closer

KS:  Have you tracked these, and than matched to actual game scores?
I recall seeing (somewhere/someone) had posted the prediciton Calvin over Adrian by 4.  Considering the actual margin was 6 that is scary.

[ziggy]

Saturday score predictions as calculated by raw efficiency numbers:

Calvin 73, Albion 57
Adrian 65, Hope 58
Olivet 71, Kalamazoo 64
Trine 76, Alma 63 -- this one is probably most affected by relative schedule strengths, expect Alma to be closer

KS:  Have you tracked these, and than matched to actual game scores?
I recall seeing (somewhere/someone) had posted the prediciton Calvin over Adrian by 4.  Considering the actual margin was 6 that is scary.

Massey had Calvin winning 62-58. KS put in his blog that he had Calvin winning 60-54 based on unadjusted efficiency numbers. (link)

[KnightSlappy]

Saturday score predictions as calculated by raw efficiency numbers:

Calvin 73, Albion 57
Adrian 65, Hope 58
Olivet 71, Kalamazoo 64
Trine 76, Alma 63 -- this one is probably most affected by relative schedule strengths, expect Alma to be closer

KS:  Have you tracked these, and than matched to actual game scores?
I recall seeing (somewhere/someone) had posted the prediciton Calvin over Adrian by 4.  Considering the actual margin was 6 that is scary.

I haven't rigorously tracked them, no.

Last night's scores were predicted to be (a little bit ex post facto as my numbers now include yesterday's data):

Calvin 60, Adrian 54 (actual 56-50)
Hope 85, Alma 66 (actual 83-69)
Olivet 72, Albion 65 (actual 81-54)
Trine 73, Kzoo 55 (actual 67-64)

A mixed bag, but Albion's now not the team they were at the beginning of the year, and Trine's numbers were put up against a soft schedule -- the data know neither of these things.

[realist]

Saturday score predictions as calculated by raw efficiency numbers:

Calvin 73, Albion 57
Adrian 65, Hope 58
Olivet 71, Kalamazoo 64
Trine 76, Alma 63 -- this one is probably most affected by relative schedule strengths, expect Alma to be closer

KS:  Have you tracked these, and than matched to actual game scores?
I recall seeing (somewhere/someone) had posted the prediciton Calvin over Adrian by 4.  Considering the actual margin was 6 that is scary.

I haven't rigorously tracked them, no.

Last night's scores were predicted to be (a little bit ex post facto as my numbers now include yesterday's data):

Calvin 60, Adrian 54 (actual 56-50)
Hope 85, Alma 66 (actual 83-69)
Olivet 72, Albion 65 (actual 81-54)
Trine 73, Kzoo 55 (actual 67-64)

A mixed bag, but Albion's now not the team they were at the beginning of the year, and Trine's numbers were put up against a soft schedule -- the data know neither of these things.

Thanks.

[goodknight]

The only thing that surprised me about this entire circumstance is how high Adrian was in our last poll. Yikes. Good correction upcoming.

It was a 6 point loss, on the road, to a good team.   

That's the truth.  I don't know how Adrian will respond to this loss and perform over the next 15 games of the regular conference schedule, but it would not surprise me if they win a baker's dozen or more games.  Heck, they might run the table after this. Mark White is a first-rate coach with a great system and a number of high-quality players. The Knights bottled up Romain last night, but he's a talent and will go off on many teams before it's over.

I see they hoodwinked you into purchasing the extended season ticket package! Alas, only 13 conference games remain.

It's a long season, but not quite....that....long.  I corrected my original post, KS.

[sac]

From an efficiency point of view, Albion has been torched their last two games giving up points at a rate of about 134 per 100 possessions.  With what looks to be the best offensive team in the league coming to town Albion may be in for an historic kind of tail whipping on their home floor. 

[KnightSlappy]

From an efficiency point of view, Albion has been torched their last two games giving up points at a rate of about 134 per 100 possessions.  With what looks to be the best offensive team in the league coming to town Albion may be in for an historic kind of tail whipping on their home floor.

If 134 is assumed to be their true-talent rate vs. league average competition, and Calvin scores at an approximate 110 clip, then the Knights would be looking at 95-ish points for the game (assuming a league-average 66 possessions).

I don't think 134 is Albion's defensive talent, we must regress small samples heavily, but it could be a fun day over at (historic) Kresge Gymnasium.

[sac]

Offense for Albion might be the bigger issue, since the roster changes they've scored 53, 49, 82, 54.  The 82 came against Case Western who plays a high pace, no defense game.

Calvin might hold the Brits under 45 if they don't call the dogs off too early.

[Civic Minded]

It is great to see the situation with Snuggerud's "back injury" has been cleared up.  I am going to go out on a limb and predict he starts all of Hope's remaining games and wins MVP of the league.

For the record, the back injury is a real issue as well.  Is the dead horse beaten enough yet?   

[almcguirejr]

Holland HS grad, Trent Windemuller, is having a good freshman year at Millikin.  He's had games of 26 points (Rockford) and 16 pts (Carthage.) He is shooting 44% from 3. I don't think he was highly recruited in this area.  Someone like Jody May regret that.

[GoKnights68]

FDF, couldn't agree with you more!!!

So glad to see this from Snuggs and agree on the other seniors.

There certainly is a long road to go, but..................I think we may look back at the last 2 weeks for Hope as one of Matt Neil's great teaching moments in his "short" head coaching career.

Finally, even it is doesn't become a "success" in the W/L columns or Championship columns.  I believe Coach Neil has given these young men a "valuable" life lesson that will serve them, well beyond the basketball court.

IMHO, only

As the great Tony Perkis said in Heavyweights, "We're not teaching them about sports, we're teaching them about life!"

[Mr. Ypsi]

My intention to be in Adrian tomorrow has fallen through - my son and daughter-in-law are moving from Canton to Rochester Hills (due to a promotion for my son, who has had our Prius for the last month for his hour+ commute to the new job site).  Amazingly, they have found a nicer apartment at lower cost!  Either RH is not as up-scale as I thought, or bargains still exist.

I'm hoping they have rounded up enough much younger laborers to do the heavy lifting, but they still need the old man's van (and maybe the old man)!

[SBell]

Holland HS grad, Trent Windemuller, is having a good freshman year at Millikin.  He's had games of 26 points (Rockford) and 16 pts (Carthage.) He is shooting 44% from 3. I don't think he was highly recruited in this area.  Someone like Jody May regret that.

Good for Trent. Doesn't pass the "look test", but can just shoot the hell out of it.

[oldknight]

Holland HS grad, Trent Windemuller, is having a good freshman year at Millikin.  He's had games of 26 points (Rockford) and 16 pts (Carthage.) He is shooting 44% from 3. I don't think he was highly recruited in this area.  Someone like Jody May regret that.

Good for Trent. Doesn't pass the "look test", but can just shoot the hell out of it.

Matt Neil might regret missing out on a player in his own backyard too. Matt Nadelhoffer--Millikin's head coach--recruited Trent heavily. Nadelhoffer even used his father-in-law, former Wheaton All-American Tom Dykstra to help out in the process. I talked to Dyk at a couple of high school games last year and Tom told me that Nadelhoffer was very high on the kid. Windemuller isn't the fleetest of foot but as Steve Bell notes, the young man from Holland HS can really shoot the ball from downtown. I see Trent is now starting and has played 78 of 80 possible minutes the last two games for The Big Blue.

[sac]

The absence of at least one Bulldog from Thursday's game was explained by Mark White in a Sentinel article.

Against Calvin, Adrian played without starting guard Darryl Flemister. Junior Drew Torrey started in his place.

Flemister led the Bulldogs with 24 assists in nine games while scoring 4.9 points per game, is no longer listed on the roster, but White told The Sentinel when asked about his team's smaller roster, "We've got some injuries."