MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[oldknight]

Calvin jumps to #21 in the d3hoops.com poll. Adrian (!?) hangs on to 10 points and is an ORV.

http://d3hoops.com/top25/men/2012-13/week7

Kind of interesting they came in one spot behind Wheaton.  One of the two results that has given voters their greatest pause on Calvin.

That is true but as ugly as the Wheaton loss was, it's still the Carthage game that rankles me. Losing to Wheaton on their floor is never a shame and Calvin did defend pretty well that evening, giving up only 54 points to a Thunder squad with a fair bit of offensive firepower and forcing 24 Wheaton turnovers. How this Calvin team could only score 37 is certainly a mystery but most teams lay at least one real egg in a season. But after that loss I expected the Knights to show some passion the next day. Unfortunately they only sleepwalked their way through a large portion of the first half before erasing a 10 point deficit. Calvin appeared poised to close out Carthage after taking a four point lead with four minutes left, only to come up empty down the stretch while Carthage made all the right plays. Just a modestly decent performance by Calvin at King Arena that Saturday afternoon would have netted them a win and a 14-1 record.

[sac]

Snikkers and Overway are co-players of the week


1st time in his career for Overway.

[sflzman]

#31 Charley Helmer has gone missing from the Alma roster. No idea why. But with the injuries to Sheridan and Johnson Alma is basically left with only clancy who's playing on one knee as it is as far as big men goes. I noticed that charley didn't play much the last few games but I assumed that he was maybe dealing with a sore wrist after getting his legs taken out on a dunk a few games back.

[HopeConvert]

And the weakest Hope one in years.

It might just be me but this team looks a lot like the 2009/2010/2011 Hope teams.  21-8, 21-8, 23-7. 

This team also played a more difficult schedule than those teams did.

I'm going by the eye test, and the Massey numbers seem to back up the claim that this is not a very good defensive team. I wasn't trying to fool anyone: every time I've watched this team this year they've looked to me out of sorts and very much so on the defensive end. Honestly - and I hate to say this - I expect a 15 point win for Calvin tomorrow.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

http://www.mlive.com/smallcolleges/grandrapids/index.ssf/2013/01/hope_calvin_coaches_share_same.html#incart_river_default

I'm afraid that the writer doesn't demonstrate much knowledge of the teams other than what can be gleaned from reading box scores.  And the analysis of "whoever rebounds more will win" might as well be reduced to "whoever scores more will win" for all the insight it provides.  But of course coaches can't say it that way because it sounds silly and talking about rebounding shows that they are focused on "effort" and "heart". 

The one thing I find most disconcerting from the article:  "About 500 seats remain available as of Tuesday morning."  Really?  13-2, nationally ranked, showdown with fellow league leading Hope, and no ice on the roads in GR.  Come on, Knight fans. "you can't fill it" the truth hurts!

[realist]

One can't be sure the writer even looked at the box scores.
If the writer had done that they would have seen that Hope won all 3 games last year, but Hope only controlled the boards 33-30 in the first game at the De Vos.  Calvin controlled the boards 43-29 at the VNA, but lost.  In the MIAA tourney game Calvin controlled the boards 39-34.

I really want to see Calvin dominate the glass, but don't think doing that guarantees a W.

[sac]

And the weakest Hope one in years.

It might just be me but this team looks a lot like the 2009/2010/2011 Hope teams.  21-8, 21-8, 23-7. 

This team also played a more difficult schedule than those teams did.

I'm going by the eye test, and the Massey numbers seem to back up the claim that this is not a very good defensive team. I wasn't trying to fool anyone: every time I've watched this team this year they've looked to me out of sorts and very much so on the defensive end. Honestly - and I hate to say this - I expect a 15 point win for Calvin tomorrow.

That's very possible considering Calvin has had pretty big leads at different points in VNA a couple times in the recent past.  I do think Hope is getting better on the defensive end, they turned the Albion game around with defense.

Hope might not be great at stopping teams from scoring, their 42.9% ranks 186 in D3 which is still above average believe it or not.  Where they are doing very well is blocked shots and steals, both rank in the top 50.

*NCAA stat rankings are all adjusted because the NCAA site has the wrong stats for Hope.

[sac]

One can't be sure the writer even looked at the box scores.
If the writer had done that they would have seen that Hope won all 3 games last year, but Hope only controlled the boards 33-30 in the first game at the De Vos.  Calvin controlled the boards 43-29 at the VNA, but lost.  In the MIAA tourney game Calvin controlled the boards 39-34.

I really want to see Calvin dominate the glass, but don't think doing that guarantees a W.

A bigger factor in those 3 games was Hope shot over 50% in each of them, the higher % you shoot the less of a factor rebounding becomes  (Hope probably won't do that this year)

Semantics but 33-30, 39-34 really isn't "controlling" the boards, those are virtual draws, esp when you look at offensive rebounding %

Rebounding is definitely a factor in winning but its not the only thing.

[KnightSlappy]

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see KVS empoly an 8-man rotation tomorrow night. He nearly did this vs. Adrian when DeBoer had 4 minutes and Vallie had 2.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

From the what-a-difference-a-year-makes file: For the rest of the season, Calvin would have to go 0-11 and be outscored by an average of 23.3 points in those games in order to post numbers equal to last year. 

Of course, if Calvin went 0-10 the rest of the regular season, we would not get to play in the MIAA tourney, meaning....as of last Saturday, the Knights have already mathematically clinched a winning record for the season. So we got that going for us. Which is nice.

[knightvision]

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see KVS empoly an 8-man rotation tomorrow night. He nearly did this vs. Adrian when DeBoer had 4 minutes and Vallie had 2.

Many Calvin fans (me included) have been hoping and arguing for a shorter rotation, and it certainly appears that has been the pattern in the last few weeks.  In addition to the Adrian game you note, it's virtually identical for the Albion game--both close games where the minutes clearly highlight the core 8 man rotation.  In the other two conference games, both 20+ point wins, you see exactly what one would hope to see--more bench play and reduced minutes for your core guys.

I'll be watching several things closely on Wednesday evening:
1) Does Snikkers continue shooting it at a high % and not try to do too much?
2) How do Hope's freshmen respond in their first Hope-Calvin game? 
3) What does Hope's rotation look like?
4) Turnovers.  I'm more inclined to think this will be a key than rebounding....

Thanks to some of the veterans on this board, I'm learning more about regional rankings, Massey, SOS, AQ's, and formulas that impact who makes the postseason.  But setting aside those numbers, I believe that Calvin needs a win more badly than Hope does in this one for a completely different reason-- their psyche.  Calvin seniors are 2-8 vs Hope, they are the more veteran team, they are home, and I think they are aware that they not only need to win this one but are probably expected to win by the majority of Calvin fans who point to Hope's record and the unexpected developments with Snuggerud that caught most everyone by surprise and have the average Calvin fan (whatever that means  ) thinking that Hope may be a bit vulnerable.

Not hard to imagine MN playing that card with his boys-- "We're the underdog here, people think we've got issues and are vulnerable, and Calvin is feeling the pressure to win. We can establish ourselves as the front runner with a win on the road--let it rip!" 

I think Hope's youngsters will be solid and I expect a tight one.  Prediction: Calvin 75-70

 
   

[sac]

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see KVS empoly an 8-man rotation tomorrow night. He nearly did this vs. Adrian when DeBoer had 4 minutes and Vallie had 2.

Will playing a Hope team that may go as many as 11 deep, possibly even 12 allow that though?  Adrian and Albion really can't do that because of roster issues.  Hope's been playing a solid 9 with 2 or 3 others getting a handful of minutes each.

[oldknight]

I wouldn't be completely surprised to see KVS empoly an 8-man rotation tomorrow night. He nearly did this vs. Adrian when DeBoer had 4 minutes and Vallie had 2.

Will playing a Hope team that may go as many as 11 deep, possibly even 12 allow that though?  Adrian and Albion really can't do that because of roster issues.  Hope's been playing a solid 9 with 2 or 3 others getting a handful of minutes each.

Something to consider is the fact that this is a TV game. This gives coaches regular--and longer--timeouts and makes it easier to give your best players more minutes.

[almcguirejr]

I think the outcome of tomorrow's game is going to depend on how much and how well Snuggerud plays.  If he plays 25-30 minutes at his potential, Calvin is going to have a difficult time winning.  Hope's team and Snuggerud have not come together yet and played a complete 40 minutes.  Hope was the preseason favorite for that reason.  If they all get on the same page they will be very strong.

[sac]

I think the outcome of tomorrow's game is going to depend on how much and how well Snuggerud plays.  If he plays 25-30 minutes at his potential, Calvin is going to have a difficult time winning.  Hope's team and Snuggerud have not come together yet and played a complete 40 minutes.  Hope was the preseason favorite for that reason.  If they all get on the same page they will be very strong.

Nate hasn't played more than 22 minutes since the Spring Arbor game, and only more than 15 twice.