MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[ziggy]

Just for the fun of it, let's say Hope does 'run the table' and finishes 13-1 with Calvin also finishing 13-1. Will the host of the tournament be determined by coin toss or other criteria? If other criteria, what would that be?

Based on Massey's current monte carlo simulations, there is a 1.86% chance of this happening.

Though I'd imagine it is probably less than that, because this assumes that Hope wins all 9 remaining games (5.83% according to Massey) and Calvin wins 8 of 9 remaining games (31.98%). The 31.98% doesn't guarantee Calvin's 1 loss is to Hope. If the loss was predicted to be to the Dutch (and not any other MIAA constituent), I'd have to imagine the 1.86% chance diminishes considerably.

Good point, that is true. We're not looking for one loss, we're looking for one specific loss. That's a horse of a different color.

Using Massey's current win probability for Calvin's remaining games, the likelihood of the Knights winning all remaining non-Hope games and losing in Holland is 10.833%. The Hope portion of the calculation doesn't change.

That puts the probability of the above scenario at 0.63%

[edit: when using Massey's individual win probabilities for Hope's remaining games I get a 4.359% chance of running the table. If we use this number for consistency's sake, the probability of Hope running the table AND Calvin winning all remaining games save for the rematch in Holland is 0.472%.]

[Busted Stuff]

Just for the fun of it, let's say Hope does 'run the table' and finishes 13-1 with Calvin also finishing 13-1. Will the host of the tournament be determined by coin toss or other criteria? If other criteria, what would that be?

Based on Massey's current monte carlo simulations, there is a 1.86% chance of this happening.

Though I'd imagine it is probably less than that, because this assumes that Hope wins all 9 remaining games (5.83% according to Massey) and Calvin wins 8 of 9 remaining games (31.98%). The 31.98% doesn't guarantee Calvin's 1 loss is to Hope. If the loss was predicted to be to the Dutch (and not any other MIAA constituent), I'd have to imagine the 1.86% chance diminishes considerably.

Good point, that is true. We're not looking for one loss, we're looking for one specific loss. That's a horse of a different color.

Using Massey's current win probability for Calvin's remaining games, the likelihood of the Knights winning all remaining non-Hope games and losing in Holland is 10.833%. The Hope portion of the calculation doesn't change.

That puts the probability of the above scenario at 0.63%

[edit: when using Massey's individual win probabilities for Hope's remaining games I get a 4.359% chance of running the table. If we use this number for consistency's sake, the probability of Hope running the table AND Calvin winning all remaining games save for the rematch in Holland is 0.472%.]

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Just for the fun of it, let's say Hope does 'run the table' and finishes 13-1 with Calvin also finishing 13-1. Will the host of the tournament be determined by coin toss or other criteria? If other criteria, what would that be?

Based on Massey's current monte carlo simulations, there is a 1.86% chance of this happening.

Though I'd imagine it is probably less than that, because this assumes that Hope wins all 9 remaining games (5.83% according to Massey) and Calvin wins 8 of 9 remaining games (31.98%). The 31.98% doesn't guarantee Calvin's 1 loss is to Hope. If the loss was predicted to be to the Dutch (and not any other MIAA constituent), I'd have to imagine the 1.86% chance diminishes considerably.

Good point, that is true. We're not looking for one loss, we're looking for one specific loss. That's a horse of a different color.

Using Massey's current win probability for Calvin's remaining games, the likelihood of the Knights winning all remaining non-Hope games and losing in Holland is 10.833%. The Hope portion of the calculation doesn't change.

That puts the probability of the above scenario at 0.63%

[edit: when using Massey's individual win probabilities for Hope's remaining games I get a 4.359% chance of running the table. If we use this number for consistency's sake, the probability of Hope running the table AND Calvin winning all remaining games save for the rematch in Holland is 0.472%.]

Yes, because despite the favorite chant of the Knight students, There IS Hope!!!!

But seriously, there is no doubt that Hope's performance on Wednesday was abysmal.  The Hope players and coaches will readily admit that.  In a season of ups and downs, this is one huge down.  Hopefully the pain of that night drives this team onward and upward. 

[alexj35]

Wednesday: Alma @ Adrian

Officials: Whitfield; Bowers; Weiber.

Why does Whitfield still ref in the MIAA? Let alone ADRIAN GAMES! He's the most one-sided official I've ever seen. Get him outta here...

[Civic Minded]

Wednesday: Alma @ Adrian

Officials: Whitfield; Bowers; Weiber.

Why does Whitfield still ref in the MIAA? Let alone ADRIAN GAMES! He's the most one-sided official I've ever seen. Get him outta here...

I cannot disagree.  Did FDF put you up to this?   

[HopeConvert]

It's actually beyond abysmal.  It was an embarrassment of historic proportions and suggests deep, systemic problems. That's a view from afar.  I'm not in the locker room. But you can't get up for a game against your arch-rival? You can't get your talent together to avoid your worse loss in decades?

[sac]

Saturday Hope plays at Olivet, the Comets have played only 4 home games winning all of them.   I saw two of them, a comfortable win over in unimpressive Lawrence Tech and their upset of struggling Adrian.  Also saw them lose on a last second shot at Spring Arbor.

Against Adrian the Bulldogs looked taller everywhere except at Drew Torey's spot, Adrian was shorter than Hope at every position so the Comets will be even more so.

Olivet likely starters

G  Jeff Cain  5-9
G  Blake Krum 6-2
G  DaunTrell Hill 6-2
G  TJ  Vondette  6-2
C  Garner Small  6-7
---------------------
F  Matt El  6-6
F  Dakotah Ellis 6-5
G  Marquis Childers 5-9
G  Eddie Rogers 6-0

This is the lineup Olivet has started the last two league games, that's a lot of 'G's and Small won't be playing center he'll be on the wings.  A couple of these heights are also suspicious.  Olivet has little bench, Eddie Rogers might play a little but really its the first 8 guys and that is about it. (Rogers' minutes have been up and down)

Hope's lineup
G  Colton Overway 6-2
G  Billy Seiler  6-2
G  Alex Eidson  6-2
F  Caleb Byers 6-5
C  Brock Benson 6-8
--------------------
G  Ben Gardner 6-0
F  Nate Snuggerud 6-5
F  Grant Neil 6-3
G  Chase DeMaagd 6-3
C  Nate VanArendonk 6-10
G  Steve Wittenbach 6-4
F  Chris Ray 6-5

The fact that Olivet has even stayed remotely close on the boards with just about everyone says something about their effort.  Even with Adrian's roster depleted I still believe them to be a very good rebounding team and Olivet stayed right with them and maybe even won that battle.

Hope's match-up problem will be Garner Small, he's tall, lanky, moves well and hangs out around the perimeter most of the time.  Adrian used 6-6 Sean Gallant on him, Calvin has about 10 guys they can put on him, Hope really doesn't have anyone that can move well enough, that isn't at a big height disadvantage.  Maybe Chase DeMaagd and Chris Ray will see more minutes.

What Olivet does well is move the ball inside the arc and back out to the open shooters.  Almost all of this goes through Small who is not just a terrific shooter but what I'd call a very good passer as well.  I saw Spring Arbor try to zone them and it almost caused their own death. 

Scary stat of the day
Olivet is tops in the league in 3 point shooting
Hope is last in 3 point shooting defense.

Olivet will hit some three's.  Primarily they are still a mostly jump shooting team.  They get to the line the least in the league by a wide margin, Hope gets there more than anyone.  Expect a big ft disparity.  Defensively I've seen them play a lot of zone with moderate degrees of success.

Olivet will be giving up a lot of inches per man, more so than they've seen since early in the year probably so they'll have their match-up problems as well.

Stating the obvious Hope needs this one, given their lackluster performance there last year I'd expect a better effort.  But given Wed, this could be a hard game to play.  I'm hoping at the end of tomorrow, me writing this much about this game seems silly, fingers crossed.
----------------------------------------------------

Jeff Cain will be an interesting kid to watch.  He played on Lansing Sexton's fantastic back-to-back Class B Championship teams.  Most of it starting and playing along side Iowa Fr. Anthony Clemmons.  When Clemmons went down with an injury early in last springs state title game it was Cain who took over the PG duties and Sexton didn't miss a beat.  Of course it helped that 3 other of his teammates are playing significant D1 minutes this year.  Cain was the only starter that didn't go D1.

I imagine Cain's 5-9 stature probably kept him from a scholarship offer.  I find it hard to believe no one would have noticed him or given him an offer considering all the college coaches who hung around that team the last 2 winters.  Down the road he'll be a nice get for Coach Coles.  So far, he's struggled with the typical Freshman adjustment to college ball and is prone to a bad turnover or two but overall he looks like he'll be a good MIAA player the next 3 years.

[almcguirejr]

But seriously, there is no doubt that Hope's performance on Wednesday was abysmal.  The Hope players and coaches will readily admit that.  In a season of ups and downs, this is one huge down.  Hopefully the pain of that night drives this team onward and upward.

In 2006, Calvin lost to Hope by 18.  It was Calvin's first game at De Vos.  Calvin played terribly, completely overwhelmed, were down by 29 with under 3 minutes to go.  They closed that game with a 14-1 run to make the final margin 18 points.  In the rematch at Calvin,  Caleb Veldhouse hit "the shot" and Calvin won 59-58. 

Also, Calvin ran the table that year and won the league championship with a record of 13-1.

It was only 1 game Wednesday night.  Calvin may not shoot 10-20 on 3's the rest of the season and I doubt Hope plays that bad again this year.

[wiz]

But seriously, there is no doubt that Hope's performance on Wednesday was abysmal.  The Hope players and coaches will readily admit that.  In a season of ups and downs, this is one huge down.  Hopefully the pain of that night drives this team onward and upward.

In 2006, Calvin lost to Hope by 18.  It was Calvin's first game at De Vos.  Calvin played terribly, completely overwhelmed, were down by 29 with under 3 minutes to go.  They closed that game with a 14-1 run to make the final margin 18 points.  In the rematch at Calvin,  Caleb Veldhouse hit "the shot" and Calvin won 59-58. 

Also, Calvin ran the table that year and won the league championship with a record of 13-1.

It was only 1 game Wednesday night.  Calvin may not shoot 10-20 on 3's the rest of the season and I doubt Hope plays that bad again this year.

I think I heard that phrase just recently. 

[sac]

Duct taped into the southwest corner of Olivet's Cutler Fieldhouse is a wi-fi transmitter that allows the Comets to livestream their home games.  So we have video today.

I was told "we'll never have video here" several seasons ago and that was probably true given how much trouble they had just getting live stats to work.  They've figured it out with about 1/5 the budget and 1/10 the endowment that Hope has.  (I'm guessing on these actual figures btw)

Enjoy your video from Olivet today, doesn't seem that hard.

http://www.olivetcomets.com/sports/mbkb/livevideo


*disclaimer, the transmitter isn't actually duct taped to the wall

[Roundball999]

Duct taped into the southwest corner of Olivet's Cutler Fieldhouse is a wi-fi transmitter that allows the Comets to livestream their home games.  So we have video today.

I was told "we'll never have video here" several seasons ago and that was probably true given how much trouble they had just getting live stats to work.  They've figured it out with about 1/5 the budget and 1/10 the endowment that Hope has.  (I'm guessing on these actual figures btw)

Enjoy your video from Olivet today, doesn't seem that hard.

http://www.olivetcomets.com/sports/mbkb/livevideo


*disclaimer, the transmitter isn't actually duct taped to the wall

I've always believed that, despite any protestations to the contrary, Hope doesn't stream mostly in order to encourage in-person attendance.

[oldknight]

Duct taped into the southwest corner of Olivet's Cutler Fieldhouse is a wi-fi transmitter that allows the Comets to livestream their home games.  So we have video today.

I was told "we'll never have video here" several seasons ago and that was probably true given how much trouble they had just getting live stats to work.  They've figured it out with about 1/5 the budget and 1/10 the endowment that Hope has.  (I'm guessing on these actual figures btw)

Enjoy your video from Olivet today, doesn't seem that hard.

http://www.olivetcomets.com/sports/mbkb/livevideo


*disclaimer, the transmitter isn't actually duct taped to the wall

I've always believed that, despite any protestations to the contrary, Hope doesn't stream mostly in order to encourage in-person attendance.

Aha! That's why we can't fill it. Now the truth comes out. Sort of makes a mockery of the Dew Crew's self-congratulatory chant doesn't it?

[Roundball999]

Duct taped into the southwest corner of Olivet's Cutler Fieldhouse is a wi-fi transmitter that allows the Comets to livestream their home games.  So we have video today.

I was told "we'll never have video here" several seasons ago and that was probably true given how much trouble they had just getting live stats to work.  They've figured it out with about 1/5 the budget and 1/10 the endowment that Hope has.  (I'm guessing on these actual figures btw)

Enjoy your video from Olivet today, doesn't seem that hard.

http://www.olivetcomets.com/sports/mbkb/livevideo


*disclaimer, the transmitter isn't actually duct taped to the wall

I've always believed that, despite any protestations to the contrary, Hope doesn't stream mostly in order to encourage in-person attendance.

Aha! That's why we can't fill it. Now the truth comes out. Sort of makes a mockery of the Dew Crew's self-congratulatory chant doesn't it?

a.  It was just an opinion; I have no idea of the "truth" about why Calvin can't draw more fans.
b.  Nor do I have any inside info on the truth of why Hope doesn't stream more.  It is just a belief.
c.  I was hopeful we had left this topic behind, but since it was brought up yet again...
d.  ... seems like the Dew Crew exactly accomplished their goal of annoying Calvin fans!

[KnightSlappy]

This is the part where we note that 4,503 is likely to be the highest attendance of any game in Division III this year, and that while Calvin is second to Hope in average attendance, they're likely to still finish the season second in Division III in average attendance.

I have no idea of the "truth" about why Calvin can't draw more fans.

When was the last time any non-Calvin Division III team hosted a game with more than 4,000 in attendance?

[KnightSlappy]

Duct taped into the southwest corner of Olivet's Cutler Fieldhouse is a wi-fi transmitter that allows the Comets to livestream their home games.  So we have video today.

I was told "we'll never have video here" several seasons ago and that was probably true given how much trouble they had just getting live stats to work.  They've figured it out with about 1/5 the budget and 1/10 the endowment that Hope has.  (I'm guessing on these actual figures btw)

Enjoy your video from Olivet today, doesn't seem that hard.

http://www.olivetcomets.com/sports/mbkb/livevideo


*disclaimer, the transmitter isn't actually duct taped to the wall

I've always believed that, despite any protestations to the contrary, Hope doesn't stream mostly in order to encourage in-person attendance.

I thought the atmosphere -- including the taping of cardboard Mountain Dew bottles to the wall -- encouraged in-person attendance.