MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[oldknight]

Come on OK, no one would want to see a weekend conference challenge featuring Calvin, Hope, Wittenberg and Wooster that alternates between West Michigan and Central Ohio... 

Or, even, a larger weekend event between more Michigan and Ohio schools played in Toledo every year. THE TOLEDO WAR.

Since the event would involve Lutherans and Presbyterians as well as the Reformed crowd, may I suggest dubbing it the "Holy Toledo War".

That riposte is good enough for one to consider waiting out the 24 hour rule.

[DMJSports]

Here is an interesting look at how individuals impact a team's performance.  The following analysis is not based on individual stats, but compares team performance with individual players in and out of the lineup.  This is an objective analysis using actual data from every game played by Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association teams this season.  Based on this comprehensive analysis, the following players are making the most positive impact on their respective team:

Adrian: ERIC LEWIS on the floor correlates to improving Adrian scoring rate by 14.3ppg and increasing opponents scoring rate by 1.9ppg - a net gain of 12.4ppg compared to when LEWIS is out of the lineup.  ADAM MEIER (7.2ppg) and SEAN GALLANT (6.6ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Albion: MIKE SMITH court presence correlates to improving Albion scoring rate by 1.1ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 6.5ppg - a net gain of 7.6ppg compared to when SMITH is off the court.  ZACH HURTH (5.8ppg) also makes a strong positive impact.

Alma: GREG SILVERTHORN in the lineup correlates to improving Alma scoring rate by 11.4ppg but also increasing opponents scoring rate by 5.7ppg - a net gain of 5.7ppg compared to when SILVERTHORN is on the bench.

Calvin: JORDAN BRINK in the lineup correlates to increasing Calvin scoring rate by 3.3ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 4.4ppg - a net gain of 7.7ppg compared to when BRINK is off the floor.  TYLER KRUIS (6.2ppg), MICKEY DEVRIES (5.1ppg) and TOM SNIKKERS (4.1ppg) also make a positive impact.

Hope: NATE SNUGGERUD on the court correlates to increasing Hope scoring rate by 13.4ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 0.3ppg - a net gain of 13.8ppg compared to when SNUGGERUD is off the court.  ALEX EIDSON (9.1ppg) and BEN GARDNER (4.2ppg) also make a positive impact.

Kalamazoo: MARK GHAFARI in the game correlates to improving Kalamazoo scoring rate by 17.2ppg and reducing opponents scoring rate by 11.0ppg - a net gain of 28.2ppg compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.  MIKE ORAVETZ (9.7ppg) and ADAM PETERS (5.1ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Olivet: GARNER SMALL on the floor correlates to improving Olivet scoring rate by 8.5ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 3.4ppg - a net gain of 11.9ppg compared to when SMALL is out of the lineup.  DAUNTRELL HILL (9.4ppg), MATT EL (6.7ppg), JEFF CAIN (5.1ppg) and BLAKE KRUM (2.7ppg) also make a positive impact.

Trine: JARED HOLMQUIST on the floor correlates to increasing Trine scoring rate by 3.5ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 8.5ppg - a net gain of 12.0ppg compared to when HOLMQUIST is out of the lineup.  IAN JACKSON (11.2ppg), NICK TATU (7.4ppg) and SCOTT ROGERS (7.0ppg) also make a strong positive impact.


On the lighter side, focusing on secondary goals (team stats other than the primary objective - outscoring opponents).  Following are players making the most positive impact in these areas:

Team scoring: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo increasing its scoring rate by 17.2 ppg compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.

Opponent scoring: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo decreasing opposition scoring rate by 11.0 ppg compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.

Team field goal percentage: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo increasing its field goal percentage rate by 9.9 percentage points compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.  TYLER KRUIS-Calvin (9.0) also makes a strong positive impact.

Opponent field goal percentage: having MICKEY DEVRIES on the floor correlates to Calvin decreasing opposition field goal percentage rate by 5.8 percentage points compared to when DEVRIES is on the bench.  MATT EL-Olivet (5.6) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team made field goals: having ERIC LEWIS on the floor correlates to Adrian increasing its made field goals rate by 7.1 per game compared to when LEWIS is on the bench.

Opponent made field goals: having MATT EL on the floor correlates to Olivet decreasing opposition made field goals rate by 4.5 per game compared to when EL is on the bench.  MICKEY DEVRIES-Calvin (4.3) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team offensive rebounds: having MATT EL on the floor correlates to Olivet increasing its offensive rebounds rate by 3.4 per game compared to when EL is on the bench.  GARNER SMALL-Olivet (3.2) also makes a strong positive impact.

Opponent offensive rebounds: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo decreasing opposition offensive rebounds rate by 5.2 per game compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.

Team turnovers: having DAUNTRELL HILL on the floor correlates to Olivet decreasing its turnovers rate by 4.1 per game compared to when HILL is on the bench.

Opponent turnovers: having ERIC LEWIS on the floor correlates to Adrian increasing opposition turnovers rate by 4.3 per game compared to when LEWIS is on the bench.

Team steals: having SCOTT ROGERS on the floor correlates to Trine increasing its steals rate by 2.4 per game compared to when ROGERS is on the bench.

Team assists: having TYLER KRUIS on the floor correlates to Calvin increasing its assists rate by 4.5 per game compared to when KRUIS is on the bench.  MARK GHAFARI-Kalamazoo (4.2) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team defensive rebounds: having SCOTT ROGERS on the floor correlates to Trine increasing its defensive rebounds rate by 5.9 per game compared to when ROGERS is on the bench.  DAUNTRELL HILL-Olivet (5.5) also makes a strong positive impact.

[monsoon]

Come on OK, no one would want to see a weekend conference challenge featuring Calvin, Hope, Wittenberg and Wooster that alternates between West Michigan and Central Ohio... 

Or, even, a larger weekend event between more Michigan and Ohio schools played in Toledo every year. THE TOLEDO WAR.

Since the event would involve Lutherans and Presbyterians as well as the Reformed crowd, may I suggest dubbing it the "Holy Toledo War".

+K

[bojack]

Here is an interesting look at how individuals impact a team's performance.  The following analysis is not based on individual stats, but compares team performance with individual players in and out of the lineup.  This is an objective analysis using actual data from every game played by Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association teams this season.  Based on this comprehensive analysis, the following players are making the most positive impact on their respective team:

Adrian: ERIC LEWIS on the floor correlates to improving Adrian scoring rate by 14.3ppg and increasing opponents scoring rate by 1.9ppg - a net gain of 12.4ppg compared to when LEWIS is out of the lineup.  ADAM MEIER (7.2ppg) and SEAN GALLANT (6.6ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Albion: MIKE SMITH court presence correlates to improving Albion scoring rate by 1.1ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 6.5ppg - a net gain of 7.6ppg compared to when SMITH is off the court.  ZACH HURTH (5.8ppg) also makes a strong positive impact.

Alma: GREG SILVERTHORN in the lineup correlates to improving Alma scoring rate by 11.4ppg but also increasing opponents scoring rate by 5.7ppg - a net gain of 5.7ppg compared to when SILVERTHORN is on the bench.

Calvin: JORDAN BRINK in the lineup correlates to increasing Calvin scoring rate by 3.3ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 4.4ppg - a net gain of 7.7ppg compared to when BRINK is off the floor.  TYLER KRUIS (6.2ppg), MICKEY DEVRIES (5.1ppg) and TOM SNIKKERS (4.1ppg) also make a positive impact.

Hope: NATE SNUGGERUD on the court correlates to increasing Hope scoring rate by 13.4ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 0.3ppg - a net gain of 13.8ppg compared to when SNUGGERUD is off the court.  ALEX EIDSON (9.1ppg) and BEN GARDNER (4.2ppg) also make a positive impact.

Kalamazoo: MARK GHAFARI in the game correlates to improving Kalamazoo scoring rate by 17.2ppg and reducing opponents scoring rate by 11.0ppg - a net gain of 28.2ppg compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.  MIKE ORAVETZ (9.7ppg) and ADAM PETERS (5.1ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Olivet: GARNER SMALL on the floor correlates to improving Olivet scoring rate by 8.5ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 3.4ppg - a net gain of 11.9ppg compared to when SMALL is out of the lineup.  DAUNTRELL HILL (9.4ppg), MATT EL (6.7ppg), JEFF CAIN (5.1ppg) and BLAKE KRUM (2.7ppg) also make a positive impact.

Trine: JARED HOLMQUIST on the floor correlates to increasing Trine scoring rate by 3.5ppg and decreasing opponents scoring rate by 8.5ppg - a net gain of 12.0ppg compared to when HOLMQUIST is out of the lineup.  IAN JACKSON (11.2ppg), NICK TATU (7.4ppg) and SCOTT ROGERS (7.0ppg) also make a strong positive impact.


On the lighter side, focusing on secondary goals (team stats other than the primary objective - outscoring opponents).  Following are players making the most positive impact in these areas:

Team scoring: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo increasing its scoring rate by 17.2 ppg compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.

Opponent scoring: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo decreasing opposition scoring rate by 11.0 ppg compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.

Team field goal percentage: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo increasing its field goal percentage rate by 9.9 percentage points compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.  TYLER KRUIS-Calvin (9.0) also makes a strong positive impact.

Opponent field goal percentage: having MICKEY DEVRIES on the floor correlates to Calvin decreasing opposition field goal percentage rate by 5.8 percentage points compared to when DEVRIES is on the bench.  MATT EL-Olivet (5.6) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team made field goals: having ERIC LEWIS on the floor correlates to Adrian increasing its made field goals rate by 7.1 per game compared to when LEWIS is on the bench.

Opponent made field goals: having MATT EL on the floor correlates to Olivet decreasing opposition made field goals rate by 4.5 per game compared to when EL is on the bench.  MICKEY DEVRIES-Calvin (4.3) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team offensive rebounds: having MATT EL on the floor correlates to Olivet increasing its offensive rebounds rate by 3.4 per game compared to when EL is on the bench.  GARNER SMALL-Olivet (3.2) also makes a strong positive impact.

Opponent offensive rebounds: having MARK GHAFARI on the floor correlates to Kalamazoo decreasing opposition offensive rebounds rate by 5.2 per game compared to when GHAFARI is on the bench.

Team turnovers: having DAUNTRELL HILL on the floor correlates to Olivet decreasing its turnovers rate by 4.1 per game compared to when HILL is on the bench.

Opponent turnovers: having ERIC LEWIS on the floor correlates to Adrian increasing opposition turnovers rate by 4.3 per game compared to when LEWIS is on the bench.

Team steals: having SCOTT ROGERS on the floor correlates to Trine increasing its steals rate by 2.4 per game compared to when ROGERS is on the bench.

Team assists: having TYLER KRUIS on the floor correlates to Calvin increasing its assists rate by 4.5 per game compared to when KRUIS is on the bench.  MARK GHAFARI-Kalamazoo (4.2) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team defensive rebounds: having SCOTT ROGERS on the floor correlates to Trine increasing its defensive rebounds rate by 5.9 per game compared to when ROGERS is on the bench.  DAUNTRELL HILL-Olivet (5.5) also makes a strong positive impact.

Impressive analysis. There are some eye opening stats that appear through this.  It's intriguing to me that Calvin and Albion post the smallest individual differences between on and off the floor. Can't help but surmise that this may speak to depth of talent on Calvin? Lack of talent on Albion? Ohhhh...sounds alot like the Cabrera/Trout MVP race and the WAR statistics...sheds light on individual talent or lack their of by the back-up.

[KnightSlappy]

Ohhhh...sounds alot like the Cabrera/Trout MVP race and the WAR statistics...sheds light on individual talent or lack their of by the back-up.

WAR takes no position on a team's actual depth chart or back up options.

[bojack]

Ohhhh...sounds alot like the Cabrera/Trout MVP race and the WAR statistics...sheds light on individual talent or lack their of by the back-up.

WAR takes no position on a team's actual depth chart or back up options.

Correct...WAR looks at wins above the "average major league equivalent" or whatever, not necessarily what is on your team...WAR would not shed light on the current back-up, where this analysis just done could shed that light. A poor comparison to WAR on my part...should have know better than through out statistical lingo and have it get past KS   

[pointlem]

Come on OK, no one would want to see a weekend conference challenge featuring Calvin, Hope, Wittenberg and Wooster that alternates between West Michigan and Central Ohio... 

If such were to happen, perhaps it could happen with the Michigan schools each hosting games one year (alternating Friday and Saturday opponents) and the Ohio schools doing so the next year.  That would effectively double the number of home games each team (and fans) would enjoy from the exchange.  For that matter, why not do the same with the CCIW/MIAA matchups?

If the women's team had a home Saturday game the same weekend as the men wanted to host, the two teams could perhaps arrange for afternoon and evening games.  Or perhaps the same matchups could simultaneously happen with the women's BB teams--with men's games in Ohio while women's are in MI and vice versa the next year.

[fantastic50]

Love the idea ... Wooster hosts something similar at Thanksgiving, with 2 NCAC and 2 OAC teams.  However, given the tradition and fan support that these four enjoy, it would be a lot of fun!

[Pat Coleman]

As a heads-up for those who don't already know, the Bracket Challenge is out! Our friends at d3photography.com manage our official picks contests:

http://d3photography.com/bracket_challenge/

Playing for pride, which means student-athletes and department personnel can participate.

[KnightSlappy]

According Pat on the Mult-Retional Topics / Regional Realignment thread:

Keep in mind that the AMCC move is set and goes into effect next academic year, while the rest needs one more sign-off and doesn't go into effect until the following year.

If this is the case, then the GL gets a cool one-year boost with just the seven new AMCC teams.

We currently have 42 / 6.5 = 6.46 (rounded down to 6) ranked teams in our region.

Next year we'll have 49 / 6.5 = 7.54 (rounded up to 8) ranked teams in our region.

The following year we'd have 59 / 10 = 9.08 (rounded down to 9) ranked teams in our region.

That's two more spots next year, and they certainly won't be going to the AMCC.

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed -- Hilbert couldn't even get a sniff of a ranking in the East this year at 20-5. Not sure offhand what they were in-region but the SOS was low.

[sac]

Shoulda, woulda, coulda, but that would have completely changed things this year...

Had that been the situation this year, and Adrian had made the regional rankings, I think Hope would have been a very strong Pool C candidate.  Sac posted this earlier:

This got in the tournament Randolph  15-6 (.714)/.520/4-5
This did not ....................... Hope         15-6 (.714)/.550/1-4 (2-4 if Aurora made the final "secret" ranking)

If we have 9 ranked teams in the GL (Randolph is in a region with 10 ranked), and Adrian gets ranked one time, Hope's line now looks like this:

Hope  15-6 (.714) / .550 / 3-4 (4-4 see Aurora comment above)

Beating Olivet would made Hope a much stronger ranking candidate, and possibly ahead of Thomas More and on the table against Randoph where they would have lost out to their 9 RRO's.

Beating Olivet would have made Hope 16-5(.761)/.550/ 1-4


What Hope needed was yet another win like Wheaton, NCC or Mississippi
17-4(.810)/.550/1-4

I don't think you can keep those measurements from being ranked, certainly higher than Thomas More which would be on the table, and that might have been enough to be selected before Randolph-Macon ever made the table.  Head-to-head with Randolph would still have been iffy because of the RRO's.  But this might have been enough to be selected ahead of someone else.

That's the margin of error you're dealing with as a Pool C team in this system.


Two things you have to do to be a legit Pool C candidate,

One........you have to play as many in-region games as possible.  Playing 21 when being compared to teams playing 25+ is never going to help your cause.  Which brings us back to the problem of just finding in-region games.  The 70% rule would have added Illinois Wesleyan, which would not have helped   15-7(.682)/.565)/1-5........that never gets ranked.  The 70% rule might help in the future. 

The black hole of scheduling in the first 3 weeks of December is a big issue for the MIAA.  So much so that I think it would be a good idea to either not play the Hall of Fame Classic,  or move it and opening up the Thanksgiving weekend for in-region opponents.  Moving it probably isn't an option because of  Cornerstone and Aquinas' compressed schedules.

Second......you have to play strong teams.  Just the fact that Hope was even in any kind of position to be ranked with a 15-6 record shows how important playing the likes of North Central, Wheaton and even Aurora really is to your SOS.  Matt Neil put his team in a position to be ranked because of the strong teams they played.

For some reason the committee's were fascinated with RRO's this year, in order to get those you have to play what you think will be the best teams in your region because you aren't going to get many from playing in the MIAA......and then just pray it works out. 

[sac]

Agreed -- Hilbert couldn't even get a sniff of a ranking in the East this year at 20-5. Not sure offhand what they were in-region but the SOS was low.

Well yeah, but the GL ranked 2 PAC teams all season.  Hilbert would have had a chance with this committee.

[Pat Coleman]

Well, not so sure. They didn't fare better in any of these three categories.

Hilbert 20-5/.450/0-0
Thomas More 20-3/.499/1-2
St. Vincent 18-3/.495/1-1

[Gregory Sager]

Doesn't the 70% rule (coming next year) make the in-region games part of this not that big of a deal?  Maybe I'm looking at this wrong, but it seems pretty easy for all schools to play 70% of their games in-region...and then once they do that, all games vs D3 teams "count."

It's "easy" for all schools to play 70%, but, as you know, (many) MIAA schools need to be very intentional about this.

14 game conference schedule leaves 11 non-conference games. 4 need to be in-region. That's not that big of a deal most years, but here's the situation for Calvin.

2 games hosting Tip-Off Tournament
2 games vs. NAIA over Thanksgiving weekend
2 games vs. CCIW Wheaton and Carthage
2 games over Christmas at a tournament (seems they make a "big trip" every other year)
3 single game scattered throughout

I don't think we want to tell Division III teams that they can't travel once a year, play two NAIA's that both exist within walking distance, or regularly schedule two of the  closest ten non-conference teams (regardless of regionality).

If Wheaton and Carthage are not to count toward the 70%, Calvin will have to make sure 4 of the 5 remaining games are in-region. That's is doable, but it doesn't leave a great margin for error.

It's been discussed on this page many times before but I favor dumping the games against the local NAIA schools. Calvin's first order of business is to live up to the requirements of the national governing body of which the school is a part, and that includes playing as many member insitutions as Calvin is able. Adding an OAC/MIAA or NCAC/MIAA or HCAC/MIAA challenge on Thanksgiving weekend to the one already in place with the CCIW seems to be a pretty good replacement.

Augustana dispensed with its annual game against cross-river rival St. Ambrose for the same reason. This season's game will be the last time that the two programs face each other for the foreseeable future, and Augie coach Grey Giovanine specifically cited the NCAA's position on in-region games as the rationale for his decision to end the series with St. Ambrose.

In an ideal world, Calvin ought to be able to play Aquinas and Cornerstone every year. There's a lot to be said for playing a next-door neighbor in terms of avoiding travel time and maintaining local interest (including media coverage), especially for a school that's geographically handcuffed by the NCAA in terms of which D3 opponents are considered in-region and which aren't. But OK's right; if you're in D3, you have to play by D3's rules. I can see why Calvin would want to change the definition of regionality to include a contiguous-states clause, and I think that everybody who follows this topic on d3boards.com, from Pat Coleman on down, supports that change as well. (Based upon his comments on Hoopsville the other night, it sounds as though D3 men's basketball committee chair Mike DeWitt supports a contiguous-states clause as well.) But it makes sense that D3 teams should be encouraged to play other D3 teams by the rules of the division.

The black hole of scheduling in the first 3 weeks of December is a big issue for the MIAA.  So much so that I think it would be a good idea to either not play the Hall of Fame Classic,  or move it and opening up the Thanksgiving weekend for in-region opponents.  Moving it probably isn't an option because of  Cornerstone and Aquinas' compressed schedules.

I think that circumstances are trending in such a way that I can see the CCIW and the MIAA playing each other more often. The NAthC, which has traditionally been the league that the CCIW faces the most in non-conference play, is moving from a two-division format to a one-division format and thus changing from a schedule that is single round-robin across divisions and double round-robin within divisions to a universal double round-robin. That means a lot more conference games for NAthC teams and fewer opportunities for CCIW members to pick up non-con games with their NAthC neighbors. Couple that with the expansion of the MWC (Cornell) and the SLIAC (Iowa Wesleyan), and you're looking at a shrinking pool of available and travel-convenient opponents for CCIW teams within that same early-December window.