MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Happy Calvin Guy]

Based on Massey probabilities in Hope's pod:

Wheaton 62.3%
Hope 20.3%
Penn St-Behrend 10.7%
Rose Hulman 6.7%

[KnightSlappy]

Massey probabilities of advancing to the sectional weekend:

Illinois Wesleyan   71%
Wooster   65%
Washington U   63%
Wheaton (Ill.)   62%
St. Norbert   25%
Hope   20%
Calvin   16%
Geneseo State   15%
Dickinson   15%
Wilmington   12%
Penn State-Behrend   11%
Wittenberg   10%
Rose-Hulman   7%
St. Vincent   4%
Ohio Wesleyan   4%
Webster   0.3%

[calvinite]

Massey probabilities of advancing to the sectional weekend:

Webster   0%

Wonder how the Webster players would feel about these probabilities. Probably motivate them a little, I would think.

[sac]

I was a little surprised how narrow massey had the Hope/PSU-B match-up  59-41.  Most of the 7-game series I simulated went 4-3 with one very disturbing 7-0 in Behrend's favor. 

I think this is far from a slam dunk game especially with the way Hope's played the last week or two.

[KnightSlappy]

Massey probabilities of advancing to the sectional weekend:

Webster   0%

Wonder how the Webster players would feel about these probabilities. Probably motivate them a little, I would think.

If you're not motivated enough by playing in the NCAA Tournament, then what are you doing?

[KnightSlappy]

I've identified 43 sectional scenarios whereby Hope would be selected to host based on seeding and/or geography. These scenarios sum up to a 7.8% chance of happening.

[HOPEful]

Massey probabilities of advancing to the sectional weekend:

Illinois Wesleyan   71%
Wooster   65%
Washington U   63%
Wheaton (Ill.)   62%
St. Norbert   25%
Hope   20%
Calvin   16%
Geneseo State   15%
Dickinson   15%
Wilmington   12%
Penn State-Behrend   11%
Wittenberg   10%
Rose-Hulman   7%
St. Vincent   4%
Ohio Wesleyan   4%
Webster   0%

Perhaps I'm naive and biased, but I'm going to continue to believe that the home, #1 seeded team has a better chance of winning than 38% in this case. You can't teach metrics evaluate the progression and development of underclassman throughout a season. When they first played, Brock Benson and NVA both started, quickly got into foul trouble and stayed there the whole game. Hope's leading scorer was Corey McMahon off the bench and leading rebounder was Alex Eidsen, our 6'2" guard. I expect a different game this time around...

[HOPEful]

And on that note, I will also continue to believe that the #5 team in the country has a better than 25% chance of beating the #6 team in the country, even if it is on the road...

[KnightSlappy]

17 scenarios whereby Calvin reaches the sectional round and would host based on geography. Probability of one of these happening is 2.6%.

So basically a 1-in-10 chance that we have a West Michigan sectional weekend.

Probability that both Calvin and Hope advance to the sectional round with a WM host: 1.3%.

[KnightSlappy]

Tyler Kruis has been named MIAA MVP.

All-MIAA First Team
Jordan Brink, Calvin* (junior from Dyer, Ind./Illiana Christian HS)
Alex Eidson, Hope*  (sophomore from Grand Haven/Grand Haven HS)
Mark Ghafari, Kalamazoo** (senior from Grosse Pointe Shores/Grosse Pointe University-Liggett HS)
Tyler Good, Trine* (junior from Swanton, Ohio/Evergreen HS)
Tyler Kruis, Calvin* (senior from Grand Rapids/Grandville Calvin Christian HS)
Nate VanArendonk, Hope* (senior from Grand Haven/Grand Haven HS)

All-MIAA Second Team
Tyler Dykstra, Calvin (junior from Holland /Holland Christian HS)
Ben Gardner, Hope (sophomore from Carmel, Ind./Carmel HS)
Jordan Herron, Albion (sophomore from Holt /Holt HS)
Brandon Krause Alma (sophomore from Sanford/Meridian HS)
Blake Krum, Olivet (junior from Schoolcraft/Schoolcraft HS)
Adam Peters, Kalamazoo (junior from Hickory Corners/Richland Gull Lake HS)

http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/2013-14/index

[realist]

Nice to see the MIAA go with the 2nd team this year.  I always thought it would be better to honor more players than just the 6 selected the past 5-6 years.

FWIW  I remember last year when "conventional" wisdom didn't give Calvin much of a chance once they won the MIAA tourney.   I don't think it is that much beyond the realm of possibility that Calvin will once agan surprise many.  At least this year I don't hear anyone making them an easy out.  I also think (just like last year) they are going to present some match up problems for teams that haven't faced a team like Calvin all year. 
I also think Hope is just to good a team to "rollover and play dead" on their home floor.  Yes, I watched what happened on Sat., but doubt that set of circumstaances will occur again anytime soon.

[sac]

Nice to see the MIAA go with the 2nd team this year.  I always thought it would be better to honor more players than just the 6 selected the past 5-6 years.

They've selected a 2nd team every year I've followed this league.
http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/all-time/mbkb12
http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/all-time/mbkb11
etc.

[sac]

Tyler Kruis has been named MIAA MVP.

All-MIAA First Team
Jordan Brink, Calvin* (junior from Dyer, Ind./Illiana Christian HS)
Alex Eidson, Hope*  (sophomore from Grand Haven/Grand Haven HS)
Mark Ghafari, Kalamazoo** (senior from Grosse Pointe Shores/Grosse Pointe University-Liggett HS)
Tyler Good, Trine* (junior from Swanton, Ohio/Evergreen HS)
Tyler Kruis, Calvin* (senior from Grand Rapids/Grandville Calvin Christian HS)
Nate VanArendonk, Hope* (senior from Grand Haven/Grand Haven HS)

All-MIAA Second Team
Tyler Dykstra, Calvin (junior from Holland /Holland Christian HS)
Ben Gardner, Hope (sophomore from Carmel, Ind./Carmel HS)
Jordan Herron, Albion (sophomore from Holt /Holt HS)
Brandon Krause Alma (sophomore from Sanford/Meridian HS)
Blake Krum, Olivet (junior from Schoolcraft/Schoolcraft HS)
Adam Peters, Kalamazoo (junior from Hickory Corners/Richland Gull Lake HS)

http://miaa.org/sports/mbkb/2013-14/index

We have as many Tyler's as Seniors.

Tyler Dykstra over Mickey DeVries.  Haven't looked at the numbers, at the midway point I thought DeVries had the edge.

VanArendonk on the First Team:  He's Hope's most influential player in any given game.  Its always been up to Nate and officials that hate size just how much influence he has.


Young guys like DJ Beckman, Will Dixon, Ricky Jackson left off the list.

[KnightSlappy]

FWIW  I remember last year when "conventional" wisdom didn't give Calvin much of a chance once they won the MIAA tourney.

I'm not sure this is correct either. Massey gave Calvin the advantage at Rose-Hulman last year, then predicted a five-point loss to UWSP, and then an eight point loss at St. Thomas.

They weren't predicted to do quite as well as they did, but they were supposed to be competitive in the three games.

I think Pat Coleman might have even picked Calvin as the potential "surprise team" in that section of the bracket in his pre-Tournament writeup on the main page.

[iwumichigander]

Massey probabilities of advancing to the sectional weekend:

Webster   0%

Wonder how the Webster players would feel about these probabilities. Probably motivate them a little, I would think.

If you're not motivated enough by playing in the NCAA Tournament, then what are you doing?

Webster has plenty of motivation:

NCAA D3 Tournament Records
Webster: 0-3 (3 appearances)
IWU: 49-22 (23 appearances)
Webster is 0-4 lifetime vs. IWU; and, (from memory) their SLIAC conference has never won a NCAA tournament game. A win would be a big deal!