MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[HopeConvert]

I have a slight fear that Tyler Peter's will go Will Dixon on Hope on Saturday...

Hopefully, Eidson and/or Stuive will go off, as well. We need to go back to spreading defenses out and then finding a single covered NVA... Dumping it inside every possession, even when there are 4 defenders in the paint, is not a winning game plan...

Interesting.  I sure Hope the coaches and players aren't as fixated on Wheaton as all the discussion is here and in the CCIW room (and I'm confident they have the right focus).  PSU-Behrend is no slouch team, and needs to be the only focus at this point.  We can worry about Wheaton later if we get to that point.

Amen.

[HOPEful]

"Interesting.  I sure Hope the coaches and players aren't as fixated on Wheaton as all the discussion is here and in the CCIW room (and I'm confident they have the right focus).  PSU-Behrend is no slouch team, and needs to be the only focus at this point.  We can worry about Wheaton later if we get to that point."

Agree. I hope that the coaches and players aren't as well. But as a fan, I have the luxury of looking forward.

I think it's also fair to say that the AMCC isn't a basketball powerhouse. Wheaton and Penn. St. Behrend are about as far apart as you can get in terms of SoS... (I researched if there was anyone worse in the playoff and found Webster pretty quickly but I'm sure there are others?) Their only non-conference win against an opponent with a winning record was against Bethany (a good team that gives the only reason to pause in an otherwise unremarkable schedule)

Furthermore, AMCC teams are 2-11 in the playoffs over the last 10 years. Never in that time did an AMCC make it out of the first weekend, with losses following both wins.

Could Hope get stunned on Friday night? Sure. Is it reasonable to be looking ahead to Wheaton? I think so...

[monsoon]

"Interesting.  I sure Hope the coaches and players aren't as fixated on Wheaton as all the discussion is here and in the CCIW room (and I'm confident they have the right focus).  PSU-Behrend is no slouch team, and needs to be the only focus at this point.  We can worry about Wheaton later if we get to that point."

Agree. I hope that the coaches and players aren't as well. But as a fan, I have the luxury of looking forward.

I think it's also fair to say that the AMCC isn't a basketball powerhouse. Wheaton and Penn. St. Behrend are about as far apart as you can get in terms of SoS... (I researched if there was anyone worse in the playoff and found Webster pretty quickly but I'm sure there are others?) Their only non-conference win against an opponent with a winning record was against Bethany (a good team that gives the only reason to pause in an otherwise unremarkable schedule)

Furthermore, AMCC teams are 2-11 in the playoffs over the last 10 years. Never in that time did an AMCC make it out of the first weekend, with losses following both wins.

Could Hope get stunned on Friday night? Sure. Is it reasonable to be looking ahead to Wheaton? I think so...

Rose-Hulman may have a say in all of this, too.

[ziggy]

Matt Neil was on hoopsville yesterday.  Starts at about 8 hours  6 minutes

http://d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2013-14/jan30

You can learn a little about Hope's schedule gauntlet next year.

And we all thought this seasons pre-season pre-conference schedule was tough, but next season - WOW!!!!

UW Whitewater
UW Stevens Point
@Wooster (tournament)
Mount Union
Ohio Wesleyan
@CCIW/MIAA tournament - Carthage & Wheaton
@IWU (tournament)

I think the formula Hope and Calvin should be following is to think about the non-con as the SOS part of your schedule and the MIAA slate as the WP part. Play a tough schedule and go at least .500 (ideally better than that, but at a minimum) then clean up in conference play.

Hope got on this path and it looks like they are continuing it next year, even perhaps going too far on the non-con SOS side. Probably the only way for the MIAA to become a consistent two-bid league.

[Hopester]

This dead horse has been beaten over and over again on this board and elsewhere... (ahem Pointlem and HopeConvert) but it will not die. Data specialists analyzed the entire 2012-2013 season in an attempt to prove the "hot hand theory." A theory that has long since been proven a fallacy by countless statisticians, but yet everyone still believes it. As a quote in the article states, "I have proved many people wrong about the Hot Hand, but convinced no one." The conclusions from this study were conclusive enough to have a panel in the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which is on my bucket list for things to attend. If you have a half hour or so, I encourage you to understand why the Hot Hand is a valid theory and not a fallacy.

Such cool stuff being introduced into sports statistics. Another thing NBA teams are doing now is not just looking at rebounding numbers, but looking at rebounding in space and in traffic. Another little thing I read up on from the conference.

Just a little distraction for everyone as we continue to wait for Friday evening. 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf

[HOPEful]

Rose-Hulman may have a say in all of this, too.
[/quote]

Agreed. My appologies... Look forward to Wheaton/Rose-Hulman...

[USee]

Someone needs to send Sethteater to the school of D3Board "quotes". Okay, I'll do it.

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this  [/quote]. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.

[KnightSlappy]

This dead horse has been beaten over and over again on this board and elsewhere... (ahem Pointlem and HopeConvert) but it will not die. Data specialists analyzed the entire 2012-2013 season in an attempt to prove the "hot hand theory." A theory that has long since been proven a fallacy by countless statisticians, but yet everyone still believes it. As a quote in the article states, "I have proved many people wrong about the Hot Hand, but convinced no one." The conclusions from this study were conclusive enough to have a panel in the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which is on my bucket list for things to attend. If you have a half hour or so, I encourage you to understand why the Hot Hand is a valid theory and not a fallacy.

Such cool stuff being introduced into sports statistics. Another thing NBA teams are doing now is not just looking at rebounding numbers, but looking at rebounding in space and in traffic. Another little thing I read up on from the conference.

Just a little distraction for everyone as we continue to wait for Friday evening. 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf

I'm so, so hurt.

At any rate, the conclusion (ignoring methodological issues, like apparently not controlling for home/road) is that a 45% shooter who went 4-for-4 (their most extreme case!) would be expected to make his next shot 47% of the time. Let me know which of you can perceive a 2% change in field goal percentage.

For their baseball results, a (normally) .300 hitter who was identified to be "hot" in a 25 AB sample was found to hit .303 (!) in his next AB.

This is why we shouldn't care about the "hot hand". The most extreme examples that can be shown statistically (even when methods are called into question) are only a few small percentage points that rarely come into play.

[ziggy]

This dead horse has been beaten over and over again on this board and elsewhere... (ahem Pointlem and HopeConvert) but it will not die. Data specialists analyzed the entire 2012-2013 season in an attempt to prove the "hot hand theory." A theory that has long since been proven a fallacy by countless statisticians, but yet everyone still believes it. As a quote in the article states, "I have proved many people wrong about the Hot Hand, but convinced no one." The conclusions from this study were conclusive enough to have a panel in the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which is on my bucket list for things to attend. If you have a half hour or so, I encourage you to understand why the Hot Hand is a valid theory and not a fallacy.

Such cool stuff being introduced into sports statistics. Another thing NBA teams are doing now is not just looking at rebounding numbers, but looking at rebounding in space and in traffic. Another little thing I read up on from the conference.

Just a little distraction for everyone as we continue to wait for Friday evening. 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf

So it exists but not at a level that would be perceived by natural observation or in practice because players basically wipe it out by taking longer/defended/worse shots.

To me, that sounds more like another strike against the hot hand theory.

[sac]

This guy makes me believe in the hot hand theory

[ziggy]

This guy makes me believe in the hot hand theory

I don't believe the study included the wearing of three-goggles in their sample.

[sac]

Matt Neil was on hoopsville yesterday.  Starts at about 8 hours  6 minutes

http://d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2013-14/jan30

You can learn a little about Hope's schedule gauntlet next year.

And we all thought this seasons pre-season pre-conference schedule was tough, but next season - WOW!!!!

UW Whitewater
UW Stevens Point
@Wooster (tournament)
Mount Union
Ohio Wesleyan
@CCIW/MIAA tournament - Carthage & Wheaton
@IWU (tournament)

I think the formula Hope and Calvin should be following is to think about the non-con as the SOS part of your schedule and the MIAA slate as the WP part. Play a tough schedule and go at least .500 (ideally better than that, but at a minimum) then clean up in conference play.

Hope got on this path and it looks like they are continuing it next year, even perhaps going too far on the non-con SOS side. Probably the only way for the MIAA to become a consistent two-bid league.

That schedule could end up being next years Carthage though. 


A couple things go differently.....
1)  like losing the Thomas More or Alma games
2)  DePauw doesn't lose to Oberlin and Allegheny
3)  Mt. Union doesn't lose to Ohio Northern or Wilmington and stays ranked ahead of Hope through the OAC Tournament
4)  Bethany makes it to the PrAC Final

Any one of these things could have put Hope in a different slot in the Great Lakes Region and instead of being one of the first teams discussed they might have been one of the last in and certainly not hosting and maybe even left home completely.

Hope's a much different looking Pool C candidate without the wins that won them the MIAA Championship.  A straight Pool C candidate as league runner-up is going to be very hard to get.

[HOPEful]

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this 

. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.
[/quote]

easier done by computer than phone I'm sure... Only seems to be a problem when I try to cut out chunks.  Sorry not all my quotes are in blue for you

[sac]

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this 

. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.

easier done by computer than phone I'm sure... Only seems to be a problem when I try to cut out chunks.  Sorry not all my quotes are in blue for you
[/quote]

The program doesn't take into account head-to-head computing skills.

[ziggy]

That schedule could end up being next years Carthage though. 


A couple things go differently.....
1)  like losing the Thomas More or Alma games
2)  DePauw doesn't lose to Oberlin and Allegheny
3)  Mt. Union doesn't lose to Ohio Northern or Wilmington and stays ranked ahead of Hope through the OAC Tournament
4)  Bethany makes it to the PrAC Final

Any one of these things could have put Hope in a different slot in the Great Lakes Region and instead of being one of the first teams discussed they might have been one of the last in and certainly not hosting and maybe even left home completely.

Hope's a much different looking Pool C candidate without the wins that won them the MIAA Championship.  A straight Pool C candidate as league runner-up is going to be very hard to get.

Could be, yes. But I'm also presupposing a team truly worthy of being a Pool C which, in my mind, means not losing to Alma. As for the rest of it, every team in the bottom half of Pool C needs things to break in their favor. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won't. That's just what happens with at-large selections being so limited. What I was suggesting is what I now believe to be the best route for Hope and Calvin to put themselves in strong Pool C consideration most consistently.