MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[KnightSlappy]

That schedule could end up being next years Carthage though. 


A couple things go differently.....
1)  like losing the Thomas More or Alma games
2)  DePauw doesn't lose to Oberlin and Allegheny
3)  Mt. Union doesn't lose to Ohio Northern or Wilmington and stays ranked ahead of Hope through the OAC Tournament
4)  Bethany makes it to the PrAC Final

Any one of these things could have put Hope in a different slot in the Great Lakes Region and instead of being one of the first teams discussed they might have been one of the last in and certainly not hosting and maybe even left home completely.

Hope's a much different looking Pool C candidate without the wins that won them the MIAA Championship.  A straight Pool C candidate as league runner-up is going to be very hard to get.

Could be, yes. But I'm also presupposing a team truly worthy of being a Pool C which, in my mind, means not losing to Alma. As for the rest of it, every team in the bottom half of Pool C needs things to break in their favor. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won't. That's just what happens with at-large selections being so limited. What I was suggesting is what I now believe to be the best route for Hope and Calvin to put themselves in strong Pool C consideration most consistently.

And I guess that's true. Carthage didn't get the Pool C bid, but Calvin wouldn't have even been in contention.

[ziggy]

That schedule could end up being next years Carthage though. 


A couple things go differently.....
1)  like losing the Thomas More or Alma games
2)  DePauw doesn't lose to Oberlin and Allegheny
3)  Mt. Union doesn't lose to Ohio Northern or Wilmington and stays ranked ahead of Hope through the OAC Tournament
4)  Bethany makes it to the PrAC Final

Any one of these things could have put Hope in a different slot in the Great Lakes Region and instead of being one of the first teams discussed they might have been one of the last in and certainly not hosting and maybe even left home completely.

Hope's a much different looking Pool C candidate without the wins that won them the MIAA Championship.  A straight Pool C candidate as league runner-up is going to be very hard to get.

Could be, yes. But I'm also presupposing a team truly worthy of being a Pool C which, in my mind, means not losing to Alma. As for the rest of it, every team in the bottom half of Pool C needs things to break in their favor. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won't. That's just what happens with at-large selections being so limited. What I was suggesting is what I now believe to be the best route for Hope and Calvin to put themselves in strong Pool C consideration most consistently.

And I guess that's true. Carthage didn't get the Pool C bid, but Calvin wouldn't have even been in contention.

And very likely wouldn't have made the tournament last year without the AQ.

[pointlem]

This dead horse has been beaten over and over again on this board and elsewhere... (ahem Pointlem and HopeConvert) but it will not die. Data specialists analyzed the entire 2012-2013 season in an attempt to prove the "hot hand theory." A theory that has long since been proven a fallacy by countless statisticians, but yet everyone still believes it. As a quote in the article states, "I have proved many people wrong about the Hot Hand, but convinced no one." The conclusions from this study were conclusive enough to have a panel in the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which is on my bucket list for things to attend. If you have a half hour or so, I encourage you to understand why the Hot Hand is a valid theory and not a fallacy.

Such cool stuff being introduced into sports statistics. Another thing NBA teams are doing now is not just looking at rebounding numbers, but looking at rebounding in space and in traffic. Another little thing I read up on from the conference.

Just a little distraction for everyone as we continue to wait for Friday evening. 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf

I'm so, so hurt.

At any rate, the conclusion (ignoring methodological issues, like apparently not controlling for home/road) is that a 45% shooter who went 4-for-4 (their most extreme case!) would be expected to make his next shot 47% of the time. Let me know which of you can perceive a 2% change in field goal percentage.

For their baseball results, a (normally) .300 hitter who was identified to be "hot" in a 25 AB sample was found to hit .303 (!) in his next AB.

This is why we shouldn't care about the "hot hand". The most extreme examples that can be shown statistically (even when methods are called into question) are only a few small percentage points that rarely come into play.

KnightSlappy, as usual, is right on the money.  Also, the slight elevation in baskets made after makes in that study occurred after adjusting for the length of the shot.  When players makes baskets they start shooting from farther out (and thus aren't more likely to make the ensuing shot . . . except after adjusting for difficulty of shot).  Ergo, the study doesn't find any hot hand effect of practical significance--and thus actually replicated what all the previous studies have found (with apologies to HopeConvert).

[HOPEful]

Matt Neil was on hoopsville yesterday.  Starts at about 8 hours  6 minutes

http://d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2013-14/jan30

You can learn a little about Hope's schedule gauntlet next year.

And we all thought this seasons pre-season pre-conference schedule was tough, but next season - WOW!!!!

UW Whitewater
UW Stevens Point
@Wooster (tournament)
Mount Union
Ohio Wesleyan
@CCIW/MIAA tournament - Carthage & Wheaton
@IWU (tournament)

I think the formula Hope and Calvin should be following is to think about the non-con as the SOS part of your schedule and the MIAA slate as the WP part. Play a tough schedule and go at least .500 (ideally better than that, but at a minimum) then clean up in conference play.

Hope got on this path and it looks like they are continuing it next year, even perhaps going too far on the non-con SOS side. Probably the only way for the MIAA to become a consistent two-bid league.

That schedule could end up being next years Carthage though. 


A couple things go differently.....
1)  like losing the Thomas More or Alma games
2)  DePauw doesn't lose to Oberlin and Allegheny
3)  Mt. Union doesn't lose to Ohio Northern or Wilmington and stays ranked ahead of Hope through the OAC Tournament
4)  Bethany makes it to the PrAC Final

Any one of these things could have put Hope in a different slot in the Great Lakes Region and instead of being one of the first teams discussed they might have been one of the last in and certainly not hosting and maybe even left home completely.

Hope's a much different looking Pool C candidate without the wins that won them the MIAA Championship.  A straight Pool C candidate as league runner-up is going to be very hard to get.

You seem to be making a lot of negative assuptions without any positive...

How about IWU doesn't come out in the second half making 6 three pointers and Alex Eidson doesn't go 0-5 (normally a 38.1% 3-point shooter) from the same distance? Seeing as the game was 79-85 before the foul game... if Alex makes is average and IWU misses just 1 of those 6, Hope wins by 3 and no one's complaining about how Wheaton should be hosting instead of them...

But, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas..

[sac]

Along the line of schedules 'looking better than they are'.

The NCAA's multipliers are really dumb.

at Thomas More    .721
Illinois Wesleyan   .635

Hope's game at 15-12 Thomas More from a traditionally weak conference was more valuable to their SOS calculation than hosting 22-4 Illinois Wesleyan from a traditionally power-house conference.

You could literally play your 11 road games against .500 teams and your SOS would be the strongest in the country.

[ziggy]

Along the line of schedules 'looking better than they are'.

The NCAA's multipliers are really dumb.

at Thomas More    .721
Illinois Wesleyan   .635

Hope's game at 15-12 Thomas More from a traditionally weak conference was more valuable to their SOS calculation than hosting 22-4 Illinois Wesleyan from a traditionally power-house conference.

You could literally play your 11 road games against .500 teams and your SOS would be the strongest in the country.

Easy fix. Hope plays their non-con home games at Calvin and Calvin plays all their non-con home games at Hope. Avoid the home multiplier (divider) entirely by playing on "neutral" courts!

[wiz]

This guy makes me believe in the hot hand theory

That's a hot post.

[USee]

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this 

. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.

easier done by computer than phone I'm sure... Only seems to be a problem when I try to cut out chunks.  Sorry not all my quotes are in blue for you

The program doesn't take into account head-to-head computing skills.
[/quote]

Eggsellent work. LOL

[Gregory Sager]

Someone needs to send Sethteater to the school of D3Board "quotes". Okay, I'll do it.

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this  [{forward slash}quote]. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.

I modified all of his posts from today in CCIW Chat (and yours as well that quoted him) in order to make your conversation readable. I'm not going to bother to do that here.

I was going to scold Seth myself before I saw your post, but then I realized that I'd be channeling my mother telling me to clean my room when I was ten years old.

[HOPEful]

sheesh, you all sure are particular with your blue boxes...

[Gregory Sager]

A place for everything, and everything in its' place.

[/mom]

[sac]

http://d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2014/tournament-preview

[HopeConvert]

This dead horse has been beaten over and over again on this board and elsewhere... (ahem Pointlem and HopeConvert) but it will not die. Data specialists analyzed the entire 2012-2013 season in an attempt to prove the "hot hand theory." A theory that has long since been proven a fallacy by countless statisticians, but yet everyone still believes it. As a quote in the article states, "I have proved many people wrong about the Hot Hand, but convinced no one." The conclusions from this study were conclusive enough to have a panel in the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which is on my bucket list for things to attend. If you have a half hour or so, I encourage you to understand why the Hot Hand is a valid theory and not a fallacy.

Such cool stuff being introduced into sports statistics. Another thing NBA teams are doing now is not just looking at rebounding numbers, but looking at rebounding in space and in traffic. Another little thing I read up on from the conference.

Just a little distraction for everyone as we continue to wait for Friday evening. 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf

I'm so, so hurt.

At any rate, the conclusion (ignoring methodological issues, like apparently not controlling for home/road) is that a 45% shooter who went 4-for-4 (their most extreme case!) would be expected to make his next shot 47% of the time. Let me know which of you can perceive a 2% change in field goal percentage.

For their baseball results, a (normally) .300 hitter who was identified to be "hot" in a 25 AB sample was found to hit .303 (!) in his next AB.

This is why we shouldn't care about the "hot hand". The most extreme examples that can be shown statistically (even when methods are called into question) are only a few small percentage points that rarely come into play.

KnightSlappy, as usual, is right on the money.  Also, the slight elevation in baskets made after makes in that study occurred after adjusting for the length of the shot.  When players makes baskets they start shooting from farther out (and thus aren't more likely to make the ensuing shot . . . except after adjusting for difficulty of shot).  Ergo, the study doesn't find any hot hand effect of practical significance--and thus actually replicated what all the previous studies have found (with apologies to HopeConvert).

No apologies to me are necessary. I happily accept that replication is a legitimate inductive principle.

[HopeConvert]

Someone needs to send Sethteater to the school of D3Board "quotes". Okay, I'll do it.

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this  [{forward slash}quote]. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.

I modified all of his posts from today in CCIW Chat (and yours as well that quoted him) in order to make your conversation readable. I'm not going to bother to do that here.

I was going to scold Seth myself before I saw your post, but then I realized that I'd be channeling my mother telling me to clean my room when I was ten years old.

It's not like the guy is responsible for shooting down the Hindenburg. You're fine in my book Seth. (Of course, I am a person who struggles with basic computer skills, so...)

[HOPEful]

Someone needs to send Sethteater to the school of D3Board "quotes". Okay, I'll do it.

Just hit the "quote" button on the upper right and then start typing at the bottom below this  [{forward slash}quote]. You seem to be erasing the header of the quote. You can do this. We have faith in you.

I modified all of his posts from today in CCIW Chat (and yours as well that quoted him) in order to make your conversation readable. I'm not going to bother to do that here.

I was going to scold Seth myself before I saw your post, but then I realized that I'd be channeling my mother telling me to clean my room when I was ten years old.

It's not like the guy is responsible for shooting down the Hindenburg. You're fine in my book Seth. (Of course, I am a person who struggles with basic computer skills, so...)

basic, archaic, toh-may-toh, toh-mah-toh... maybe I'll hit up the library and see if I can find "MS-DOS for Dummies"... hopefully they don't make me use a card-catalog!
#plithyresponsemadeingoodfun #notreallyoffended #Illworkonit #whatdoIhavetoplaceinbracketstomakemyhashtagswork?