MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Mr. Ypsi]

It's pretty clear who is playing better ball of late. 

I don't think it wise to think IWU isn't playing good ball.

You see this fallacy in logic all the time.  You take a relative statement "better ball" and turn it into an absolute statement "isn't playing good ball."  HCG's statement made zero implication whether IWU is playing good or bad, simply that recent results point that, whatever level IWU is playing at, it isn't at as high a level as Calvin. :-)

Actually, your conclusion is also fallacious.  They haven't played any common opponents lately, so a direct comparison of who is playing better ball is not possible from the evidence.

[oldknight]

It's pretty clear who is playing better ball of late. 

I don't think it wise to think IWU isn't playing good ball.

You see this fallacy in logic all the time.  You take a relative statement "better ball" and turn it into an absolute statement "isn't playing good ball."  HCG's statement made zero implication whether IWU is playing good or bad, simply that recent results point that, whatever level IWU is playing at, it isn't at as high a level as Calvin. :-)

Actually, your conclusion is also fallacious.  They haven't played any common opponents lately, so a direct comparison of who is playing better ball is not possible from the evidence.

The head spins trying to evaluate all possible logical fallacies so let me say this before it all gets out of hand. I think there's a ton of respect by Calvin fans for Ron Rose and his IWU Titans. Even though I have only one game upon which to evaluate them, I certainly respect them a lot. The same for Wheaton. The game played at VNA in December in no way reflects that team's capabilities. Anyone who survives the first weekend to play the round of games at the sectional level has to be pretty doggone good.

[scottiedawg]

Actually, your conclusion is also fallacious.  They haven't played any common opponents lately, so a direct comparison of who is playing better ball is not possible from the evidence.

Very true! The home/road and D3rankings were the basis of HCG's statement, not common opponents. So not as reliable as having played common opponents in common locations, but better than nothing. :-)

[oldknight]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Probabilities of going to Final Four:

IWU 49.2%
Wheaton 32.5%
Calvin 12.0%
Dickinson 6.3%

Calvin's SOS has also dropped significantly--from 112 to 67. I expect it will move under 50 after Friday's game and if they win that, it will go down again. The same happened last year when Calvin's SOS was north of 100 after the regular season but finished somewhere in the 20's. If Calvin beats IWU and plays Wheaton Saturday (the Thunder currently have the no. 1 SOS in D3), I wouldn't be surprised to see the Knights' SOS move pretty close to Hope's current SOS of 12.

[USee]

It's pretty clear who is playing better ball of late. 

I don't think it wise to think IWU isn't playing good ball.

You see this fallacy in logic all the time.  You take a relative statement "better ball" and turn it into an absolute statement "isn't playing good ball."  HCG's statement made zero implication whether IWU is playing good or bad, simply that recent results point that, whatever level IWU is playing at, it isn't at as high a level as Calvin. :-)

Actually, your conclusion is also fallacious.  They haven't played any common opponents lately, so a direct comparison of who is playing better ball is not possible from the evidence.

What he said.

[calvinite]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Question: Does Massey ratings (A) weight more recent games at least a little more than the first games of the season (B) treat all games equal in terms of when they have been played or (C) Massey doesn't tell us/can't know this/ etc.?

I certainly don't want to get into the whole 'better' discussion that's taking place, but I am curious....

[Happy Calvin Guy]

I apologize for what may or may not be fallacious logic and/or the use or misuse of deductive reasoning principles.  Actually, it's probably better that the two teams haven't met this year.  We all know how hard it is for any team to beat another multiple times in the same season, no matter who has the hot hand. It's just that the idea of piquing to see which team is peeking right now kind of peaked my interest.

My prediction:  both teams will play hard

[sac]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Question: Does Massey ratings (A) weight more recent games at least a little more than the first games of the season (B) treat all games equal in terms of when they have been played or (C) Massey doesn't tell us/can't know this/ etc.?

I certainly don't want to get into the whole 'better' discussion that's taking place, but I am curious....

I believe they weighted the same.

[ziggy]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Question: Does Massey ratings (A) weight more recent games at least a little more than the first games of the season (B) treat all games equal in terms of when they have been played or (C) Massey doesn't tell us/can't know this/ etc.?

I certainly don't want to get into the whole 'better' discussion that's taking place, but I am curious....

I believe they weighted the same.

It appears that more recent games are weighted more heavily, per the Massy Ratings Description:

Time weighting is a debatable practice, however I believe that more recent games are generally better indications of a team's true strength. An exponential decay based time weighting is applied by premultiplying g by some weight w.

[sac]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Question: Does Massey ratings (A) weight more recent games at least a little more than the first games of the season (B) treat all games equal in terms of when they have been played or (C) Massey doesn't tell us/can't know this/ etc.?

I certainly don't want to get into the whole 'better' discussion that's taking place, but I am curious....

I believe they weighted the same.

It appears that more recent games are weighted more heavily, per the Massy Ratings Description:

Time weighting is a debatable practice, however I believe that more recent games are generally better indications of a team's true strength. An exponential decay based time weighting is applied by premultiplying g by some weight w.

That's surprising I hadn't realized he did that.  Certainly explains a lot of the post-tournament rises we've seen in recent years.

[Knight Hawk]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Probabilities of going to Final Four:

IWU 49.2%
Wheaton 32.5%
Calvin 12.0%
Dickinson 6.3%

Wisconsin-Stevens Point (1)   67.8%
Wisconsin-Whitewater (2)   24.3%
Texas-Dallas (10)   5.9%
Emory (34)   2.1%

Amherst (7)   52.1%
Richard Stockton (12)   30.3%
Plattsburgh State (11)   17.0%
Morrisville State (177)   0.6%

Mary Washington (14)   43.1%
Williams (17)   21.9%
Virginia Wesleyan (21)   17.8%
Albertus Magnus (18)   17.1%

[oldknight]

New Massey ratings are out:

IWU #3 (up 1)
Wheaton #6 (up 3)
Calvin #9 (up 8)
Dickinson #25 (up 16)

Question: Does Massey ratings (A) weight more recent games at least a little more than the first games of the season (B) treat all games equal in terms of when they have been played or (C) Massey doesn't tell us/can't know this/ etc.?

I certainly don't want to get into the whole 'better' discussion that's taking place, but I am curious....

I believe they weighted the same.

It appears that more recent games are weighted more heavily, per the Massy Ratings Description:

Time weighting is a debatable practice, however I believe that more recent games are generally better indications of a team's true strength. An exponential decay based time weighting is applied by premultiplying g by some weight w.

That works against Hope's SOS since their schedule was frontloaded with tough games. It also gives a bonus to Calvin's SOS since they will play at least 3 NCAA tournament games and IWU and Wheaton are currently 5 and 1 in SOS.

[sac]

That works against Hope's SOS since their schedule was frontloaded with tough games. It also gives a bonus to Calvin's SOS since they will play at least 3 NCAA tournament games and IWU and Wheaton are currently 5 and 1 in SOS.

Except that all those teams are still playing.  Hope's massey schedule rating actually went up this week.

[veterancciwfan]

Regarding Massey data, I have noticed that their predicted scores this season have been amazingly accurate. Many times, Massey will have at least one of the point totals correct. Don't know how they do it, but their input data has to be super refined.

[KnightSlappy]

Regarding Massey data, I have noticed that their predicted scores this season have been amazingly accurate. Many times, Massey will have at least one of the point totals correct. Don't know how they do it, but their input data has to be super refined.

I think the only data used as inputs into the system are final scores and home/road location.