MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

Started by sac, February 19, 2005, 11:51:56 AM

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HopeConvert

Quote from: ziggy on January 09, 2015, 11:23:31 AM
Quote from: pointlem on January 09, 2015, 11:03:54 AM
And it's not just coaches who seem to assume that points at the game's end are more decisive than first half points, we fans do, too.  We like to explain the outcome of a close game by, say, the missed basket or free throw at the game's end, when a missed first half shot is logically equivalent.  All minutes and all points count the same.  So why not maximize both?

This was sarcasm, right?

This has been written about on these boards before. PL and I are dead serious about this. The only variable is that a team might have more possessions toward the end of the game. So I think the key issue is how to maximize the number of possessions for your best players. Putting them on the bench when they have two fouls isn't going to do it. And what sense does it make to have them on the bench with two fouls with a minute left in the first half and then bring them out to start the second half. What's so magical about intermission?

Long-time West Michiganders may remember Matt Steigenga picking up a 4th foul in the first half and his coach leaving him out there: a decision crucial to the Sailors winning the state championship. You do not leave your best players on the bench, period.

OK: Jefferson was a complicated dude, but his cousin John Marshall detested him for not picking up a gun in the war. The feeling was mutual, but for different reasons, of course. I haven't seen much evidence that GK is "hawkish" in any sense, nor is he hated by his cousins. So I'll waive the Jefferson comparison.
One Mississippi, Two Mississippi...

ziggy

Quote from: HopeConvert on January 09, 2015, 12:32:23 PM
Quote from: ziggy on January 09, 2015, 11:23:31 AM
Quote from: pointlem on January 09, 2015, 11:03:54 AM
And it's not just coaches who seem to assume that points at the game's end are more decisive than first half points, we fans do, too.  We like to explain the outcome of a close game by, say, the missed basket or free throw at the game's end, when a missed first half shot is logically equivalent.  All minutes and all points count the same.  So why not maximize both?

This was sarcasm, right?

This has been written about on these boards before. PL and I are dead serious about this. The only variable is that a team might have more possessions toward the end of the game. So I think the key issue is how to maximize the number of possessions for your best players. Putting them on the bench when they have two fouls isn't going to do it. And what sense does it make to have them on the bench with two fouls with a minute left in the first half and then bring them out to start the second half. What's so magical about intermission?

Long-time West Michiganders may remember Matt Steigenga picking up a 4th foul in the first half and his coach leaving him out there: a decision crucial to the Sailors winning the state championship. You do not leave your best players on the bench, period.

OK: Jefferson was a complicated dude, but his cousin John Marshall detested him for not picking up a gun in the war. The feeling was mutual, but for different reasons, of course. I haven't seen much evidence that GK is "hawkish" in any sense, nor is he hated by his cousins. So I'll waive the Jefferson comparison.

I'm in total agreement about not making a rule of sitting a player after picking up a 2nd foul in the first half. Additionally, no the result of a game is due to a collection of tens, hundreds, even thousands of little variables that play out over the course of the entire game, but there is absolutely more value in a basket late in the game than early in the game.

Ken Pom has a nice in-game win probability table that displays this. A team scoring a basket to turn a four point lead into a six point lead with five minutes to play sees their win probability go up by 8.9% (from 75.3% to 84.2%). Extending a lead from four to six with 30 minutes to play only increases a team's win probability by 3.9% (from 58.1% to 62.0%).

2 points is 2 points any time during a game, but not all 2 points have the same impact on a game. Per the table, a ten point lead five minutes into the game is as valuable (in terms of win probability) as a two point lead with five minutes to play.

HollandKnight

Anyway.... This may catch you as a surprise but does anyone see a starting lineup change by KVS's Knights. (gasp!!!) I know that he will rarely change his starting five under any circumstances but, what would you see as a better match-up, Benson on Stout or Benson on Denney, Vander Brug or Dykstra? Of course, Stout is a better defender than all the previous mentioned, but the latter doesn't offer the offensive firepower that the other 3 have under there sleeve. Maybe the D2 transfer and the freshman out of Chicago won't start in there first rivalry game, but as always, this is just a speculation. A concept that us Knights need to wrap our minds around.
Owner of the 2013 Post of The Year voted by HopeConvert


realist

#40339
Quote from: HollandKnight on January 09, 2015, 12:48:48 PM
Anyway.... This may catch you as a surprise but does anyone see a starting lineup change by KVS's Knights. (gasp!!!) I know that he will rarely change his starting five under any circumstances but, what would you see as a better match-up, Benson on Stout or Benson on Denney, Vander Brug or Dykstra? Of course, Stout is a better defender than all the previous mentioned, but the latter doesn't offer the offensive firepower that the other 3 have under there sleeve. Maybe the D2 transfer and the freshman out of Chicago won't start in there first rivalry game, but as always, this is just a speculation. A concept that us Knights need to wrap our minds around.

I wouldn't expect KVS to make a starting line up change, but do expect the minutes to be spread around differently.  Stout does not hurt Calvin when he is in the game, and he shoots .625% (highest on the team of guys playing more than 5 games).  He is not asked to be the go to guy for scoring, but does okay if he stays away from shooting 3's.  At this point in time Calvin enjoys the luxury of having almost too mcuh size and talent on the front line.  The best way to use this is a rotation that keeps fresh legs and bodies on both offense and defense.  Hope's biggest problem this year is lack of depth up front, and Calvin should use this to it's advantage.  I think both Denney and Vander Brug are going to get their minutes, but just need to temper it to allow for smooth transition.
It was interesting the comments that KVS made in his post game comments about Denney, and his coming to Calvin.  It almost happened last fall.  Apparently he decided to leave Delta, and in that process he had scholarship dollars offered so there is no question about his skill sets.  KVS was, wisely, concerned about the chemistry changes that would happen when bringing in a player mid season, and needs to manage that aspect. 

"If you are catching flack it means you are over the target".  Brietbart.

HollandKnight

Quote from: realist on January 09, 2015, 01:27:36 PM
Quote from: HollandKnight on January 09, 2015, 12:48:48 PM
Anyway.... This may catch you as a surprise but does anyone see a starting lineup change by KVS's Knights. (gasp!!!) I know that he will rarely change his starting five under any circumstances but, what would you see as a better match-up, Benson on Stout or Benson on Denney, Vander Brug or Dykstra? Of course, Stout is a better defender than all the previous mentioned, but the latter doesn't offer the offensive firepower that the other 3 have under there sleeve. Maybe the D2 transfer and the freshman out of Chicago won't start in there first rivalry game, but as always, this is just a speculation. A concept that us Knights need to wrap our minds around.

I wouldn't expect KVS to make a starting line up change, but do expect the minutes to be spread around differently.  Stout does not hurt Calvin when he is in the game, and he shoots .625% (highest on the team of guys playing more than 5 games).  He is not asked to be the go to guy for scoring, but does okay if he stays away from shooting 3's.  At this point in time Calvin enjoys the luxury of having almost too mcuh size and talent on the front line.  The best way to use this is a rotation that keeps fresh legs and bodies on both offense and defense.  Hope's biggest problem this year is lack of depth up front, and Calvin should use this to it's advantage.  I think both Denney and Vander Brug are going to get their minutes, but just need to temper it to allow for smooth transition.
It was interesting the comments that KVS made in his post game comments about Denney, and his coming to Calvin.  It almost happened last fall.  Apparently he decided to leave Delta, and in that process he had scholarship dollars offered so there is no question about his skill sets.  KVS was, wisely, concerned about the chemistry changes that would happen when bringing in a player mid season, and needs to manage that aspect.
One of his few, yet memorable pregame lineup switches was taking senior forward Mickey Devries out in place of Jordan Daley last year in the Rivalry game in which Calvin ended up winning fair handily. That starting five is the one he is still using to this day... or will he?
Owner of the 2013 Post of The Year voted by HopeConvert

sac

Quote from: HollandKnight on January 09, 2015, 01:40:46 PM
Quote from: realist on January 09, 2015, 01:27:36 PM
Quote from: HollandKnight on January 09, 2015, 12:48:48 PM
Anyway.... This may catch you as a surprise but does anyone see a starting lineup change by KVS's Knights. (gasp!!!) I know that he will rarely change his starting five under any circumstances but, what would you see as a better match-up, Benson on Stout or Benson on Denney, Vander Brug or Dykstra? Of course, Stout is a better defender than all the previous mentioned, but the latter doesn't offer the offensive firepower that the other 3 have under there sleeve. Maybe the D2 transfer and the freshman out of Chicago won't start in there first rivalry game, but as always, this is just a speculation. A concept that us Knights need to wrap our minds around.

I wouldn't expect KVS to make a starting line up change, but do expect the minutes to be spread around differently.  Stout does not hurt Calvin when he is in the game, and he shoots .625% (highest on the team of guys playing more than 5 games).  He is not asked to be the go to guy for scoring, but does okay if he stays away from shooting 3's.  At this point in time Calvin enjoys the luxury of having almost too mcuh size and talent on the front line.  The best way to use this is a rotation that keeps fresh legs and bodies on both offense and defense.  Hope's biggest problem this year is lack of depth up front, and Calvin should use this to it's advantage.  I think both Denney and Vander Brug are going to get their minutes, but just need to temper it to allow for smooth transition.
It was interesting the comments that KVS made in his post game comments about Denney, and his coming to Calvin.  It almost happened last fall.  Apparently he decided to leave Delta, and in that process he had scholarship dollars offered so there is no question about his skill sets.  KVS was, wisely, concerned about the chemistry changes that would happen when bringing in a player mid season, and needs to manage that aspect.
One of his few, yet memorable pregame lineup switches was taking senior forward Mickey Devries out in place of Jordan Daley last year in the Rivalry game in which Calvin ended up winning fair handily. That starting five is the one he is still using to this day... or will he?

DeVries started, it was Dykstra who started on the bench.
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/1314/0301calv.htm

KnightSlappy

Quote from: realist on January 09, 2015, 01:27:36 PM
Quote from: HollandKnight on January 09, 2015, 12:48:48 PM
Anyway.... This may catch you as a surprise but does anyone see a starting lineup change by KVS's Knights. (gasp!!!) I know that he will rarely change his starting five under any circumstances but, what would you see as a better match-up, Benson on Stout or Benson on Denney, Vander Brug or Dykstra? Of course, Stout is a better defender than all the previous mentioned, but the latter doesn't offer the offensive firepower that the other 3 have under there sleeve. Maybe the D2 transfer and the freshman out of Chicago won't start in there first rivalry game, but as always, this is just a speculation. A concept that us Knights need to wrap our minds around.

I wouldn't expect KVS to make a starting line up change, but do expect the minutes to be spread around differently.  Stout does not hurt Calvin when he is in the game, and he shoots .625% (highest on the team of guys playing more than 5 games).  He is not asked to be the go to guy for scoring, but does okay if he stays away from shooting 3's.  At this point in time Calvin enjoys the luxury of having almost too mcuh size and talent on the front line.  The best way to use this is a rotation that keeps fresh legs and bodies on both offense and defense.  Hope's biggest problem this year is lack of depth up front, and Calvin should use this to it's advantage.  I think both Denney and Vander Brug are going to get their minutes, but just need to temper it to allow for smooth transition.
It was interesting the comments that KVS made in his post game comments about Denney, and his coming to Calvin.  It almost happened last fall.  Apparently he decided to leave Delta, and in that process he had scholarship dollars offered so there is no question about his skill sets.  KVS was, wisely, concerned about the chemistry changes that would happen when bringing in a player mid season, and needs to manage that aspect.

Calvin doesn't have anyone that would be a great defensive matchup against Benson in the post (like Kruis was). I think the key will be rotating players in and out to keep them fresh. I think players probably foul more when they're tired and a half-step slow.

Against Alma, Stout, VanderBrug, and Denney were all right around 15 minutes with Welch adding 9 more.

hopefan

For anyone else out there who is far removed geographically from Western Michigan, the game is televised on the World Harvest Television Network.... channel 367 on DirectV system... I'll be recording it as I attend one of the local SLIAC conference games...
The only thing not to be liked in Florida is no D3 hoops!!!

sac

Did You Know?

Albion has lost its last 4 games to Alma, and 5 of its last 6.

Alma 80  Albion 74 OT
Albion 64  Alma 62
Alma 78  Albion 76
Alma 56  Albion 55
Alma 71  Albion 69
Alma 82  Albion 71

Flying Dutch Fan

Quote from: sac on January 09, 2015, 02:03:41 PM
Did You Know?

Albion has lost its last 4 games to Alma, and 5 of its last 6.

Alma 80  Albion 74 OT
Albion 64  Alma 62
Alma 78  Albion 76
Alma 56  Albion 55
Alma 71  Albion 69
Alma 82  Albion 71

Should that trend continue, there are going to be a lot of points lost in the Pick Em contest tomorrow.
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

almcguirejr

 An interesting article on Jordan Brink.  Calvin would be in a world of hurt if he had not chosen to stay for his fifth year.

http://www.mlive.com/smallcolleges/grandrapids/index.ssf/2015/01/calvins_jordan_brink_finds_ext.html

knightvision

Quote from: KnightSlappy on January 09, 2015, 01:50:04 PM
Quote from: realist on January 09, 2015, 01:27:36 PM
Quote from: HollandKnight on January 09, 2015, 12:48:48 PM
Anyway.... This may catch you as a surprise but does anyone see a starting lineup change by KVS's Knights. (gasp!!!) I know that he will rarely change his starting five under any circumstances but, what would you see as a better match-up, Benson on Stout or Benson on Denney, Vander Brug or Dykstra? Of course, Stout is a better defender than all the previous mentioned, but the latter doesn't offer the offensive firepower that the other 3 have under there sleeve. Maybe the D2 transfer and the freshman out of Chicago won't start in there first rivalry game, but as always, this is just a speculation. A concept that us Knights need to wrap our minds around.

I wouldn't expect KVS to make a starting line up change, but do expect the minutes to be spread around differently.  Stout does not hurt Calvin when he is in the game, and he shoots .625% (highest on the team of guys playing more than 5 games).  He is not asked to be the go to guy for scoring, but does okay if he stays away from shooting 3's.  At this point in time Calvin enjoys the luxury of having almost too mcuh size and talent on the front line.  The best way to use this is a rotation that keeps fresh legs and bodies on both offense and defense.  Hope's biggest problem this year is lack of depth up front, and Calvin should use this to it's advantage.  I think both Denney and Vander Brug are going to get their minutes, but just need to temper it to allow for smooth transition.
It was interesting the comments that KVS made in his post game comments about Denney, and his coming to Calvin.  It almost happened last fall.  Apparently he decided to leave Delta, and in that process he had scholarship dollars offered so there is no question about his skill sets.  KVS was, wisely, concerned about the chemistry changes that would happen when bringing in a player mid season, and needs to manage that aspect.

Calvin doesn't have anyone that would be a great defensive matchup against Benson in the post (like Kruis was). I think the key will be rotating players in and out to keep them fresh. I think players probably foul more when they're tired and a half-step slow.

It's early, but Denney seemed to fit nicely, and as oldknight first noted, among a number of positive attributes, he looks for his teammates--guys are gonna want to play with him.  I think it's going to be hard to keep him off the floor....your best players have to play. 

I don't think too many Calvin fans are worried about our guys getting fatigued because of a lack of rotating guys in and out :-X   And actually, it seems like it's a bit less rigid than in the past...  And as noted before on here, the TV timeouts also play a factor in game management, substitution patterns, etc.

wiz

In addition to the comments regarding rotation and fatigue, KVS is going 10-11 deep this year rather than his traditional 8.  The team to win the boards will win the game.

sac

Question about TV timeouts if anyone knows.  Are Hope/Calvin using the traditional TV stoppages at 16, 12 and 8 because the game is actually being televised or are we using the league's 2?