MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[almcguirejr]

Calvin with a fairly unremarkable 75-49 win this afternoon. Knights took an early 10-2 lead and never really were threatened, taking a 37-24 lead into the locker room. The lead simply continued to grow the second half, reaching 30 at one point. The win was such a ho-hum affair, fans were treated to the amazing sight of almcguiregr declaring the earliest "hay is in the barn" call ever, making his exit during the first media timeout of the second half and Calvin holding an 18 point lead. Olivet pretty much ran the same offense all afternoon--spread the floor, and either chuck up a three or take it all the way to the hoop and hope for the best. Other than three Zeilinski first half triples, the best never showed up as the Comets saw little go down, hitting barely 30% for the game. Daley led the Knights with 15 and Parks--who had a very nice floor game--finished with 14. Other game notes:

--I wonder what's happened to Jordan Brink? Since his 29 point demolition of Hope, he's not had the same effect on games. I can understand the 9 point output against an Adrian defense that wouldn't let him go to a urinal without company, but Olivet did nothing special today and he finished with 8 on 3-9 from the floor. He did appear to have something bothering the heal of his shooting hand, but I never was able to identify what it was.

--Brad Visser finished with 11, going 5-10 from the floor but only 1-4 from the arc. Three of those triple attempts were forced, off-balance, fadeaways while the fourth was a within-the-context-of-the-offense step-in three. Guess which one swished cleanly through the hoop? Amazing what shot selection can do for you,

--Last but definitely not least: RIP Mr. Cub. Ernie Banks died last night at age 83.

Russ' had a Twinburger special going that we wanted to get too.

- Jordan Daley and Austin Parks were very solid today.

- I thought Tyler Dykstra did a very good job of defending Jake Zielenski.

- Calvin was very good from the free throw line (17-21)

[TUAngola]

Just back from the Trine game here in Angola vs Albion.  Thunder prevails 66-56.  With Trine behind all of the first half and the beginning of the second, Will Dixon caught fire the second half and put the team on his back...and we really needed it.  His ability to create shots is incredible, with most coming as the shot clock was winding down.  Albion is much better than their record indicates.  Kazen got loose in the 1st half and drained some 3's but Trine did a better job on him in the second.  Herron and Oakes inside also played tough for Albion.

Big lift off the bench from freshman Ellis Cummings for Trine who gave some valuable minutes, especially on D and rebounding.  Best I've seen him play this year as his minutes are few and far between.  Jared Holmquist was solid all game and kept Trine in it in the first half.  Ben Syroka also had a nice floor game and although he doesn't look to shoot much, he made some timely baskets today.  Trine's D is consistent game in and game out.  Not too many good looks for Albion, especially in the second half.

Never an easy game in the MIAA.  Now Trine hits the road for the next few games, need to steal one here and there away from Hershey Hall to have a chance for the league title.

Thanks for the report. I do have a question for TUAngola:  What do you think of all the minutes Trine's top players are piling up? Pretty much every conference game the top four players for the Thunder are playing 34-39 minutes. The only exception was the easy 22 point win vs Kalamazoo and even then, Holmquist, Dixon and Good got 33, 31, and 30. These guys have to be in phenomenal shape but I will be interested to see if it catches up with them as the season progresses. That's a lot of pounding on the hardwood and makes it tough to recover from minor, nagging soreness that can affect your play.

Very good observation and one I am in agreement with.  Trine does not go deep at all...pretty much a 6 man rotation with 2 others that get maybe 3 or 4 minutes a game.  I thought today they looked a little sluggish in the first half against Albion, like their legs were not quite there.  Tyler Good didn't have the same hop in his step that he did against Calvin Wednesday.  The Saturday games will be the ones where the guys will have to suck it up more as they have less time to recuperate than the Wednesday games.  If one of the "big 3" goes down with an injury then Trine will be forced to use their thin bench even more.  The guys, however, are in terrific shape.  And Coach Miller is very good at utilizing all his timeouts when he senses his guys are winded.  The media timeouts help out too this year.  Trine plays more road games the 2nd half of the conference season so you also have to put the time spent traveling into the equation.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out as the season progresses.

oldknight...I found this on the MIAA website...here is the top 10 players in minutes played / avg per game. 

1.Will Dixon-TRINEM........ SO 17     577  33.94
2.Tyler Good-TRINEM........ SR 17     559  32.88
3.Jared Holmquist-TRINEM... JR 17     546  32.12
4.Ben Rodak-ADRIANM........ JR 17     517  30.41
5.Ben Gardner-HOPEM........ JR 17     504  29.65
6.Ben Syroka-TRINEM........ JR 17     501  29.47
   Rickey Jackson-ADRIANM... JR 17     501  29.47
8.DJ Beckman-ALMAM......... JR 17     498  29.29
9.Jordan Brink-CALVINM..... SR 17     496  29.18
10.Austin Parks-CALVINM..... JR 17     491  28.88

Trine has 4 in the top 7, just as you pointed out.  Gonna be a lot of tired legs by season's end...

[sac]

+1 or road win, -1 for home loss
Calvin   5-1    +2
Trine     5-1    +1
Adrian   4-2    +1
Hope     4-2    +1
Alma     2-4    0
Kzoo     2-4    -2
Albion   1-5    -2
Olivet    1-5    -1

Remaining games:
Adrian:  Hope, Olivet, @Trine, @Calvin, Albion, Kzoo, @Alma, @Hope
Albion:  @Calvin, @Kzoo, Alma, Hope, @Adrian, @Olivet, Trine, Calvin
Alma:    Kzoo, Calvin, @Albion, @Olivet, Trine, Hope, Adrian, @Kzoo
Calvin:  Albion, @Alma, Hope, Adrian, @Kzoo, Trine, @Olivet, @Albion
Hope:   @Adrian, Trine, @Calvin, @Albion, Olivet, @Alma, Kzoo, Adrian
Kzoo:    @Alma, Albion, @Olivet, @Trine, Calvin, @Adrian, @Hope, Alma
Olivet:   Trine, @Adrian, Kzoo, Alma, @Hope, Calvin, @Albion, @Trine
Trine:    @Olivet, @Hope, Adrian, Kzoo, @Alma, @Calvin, @Albion, Olivet


Wednesday night, all 7:30pm starts
Trine at Olivet
Hope at Adrian
Albion at Calvin
Kzoo at Alma

Saturday all 3pm starts
Trine at Hope
Olivet at Adrian
Calvin at Alma
Albion at Kzoo

I actually think things could be pretty settled in the next couple weeks.  The schedule heavily favors Calvin.  A pretty decent gap between 4th and 5th of affectively 3 games for Alma and 5 for Kzoo .  Alma has a favorable schedule left to make a run, Kzoo would need a lot of help I think.   Olivet/Albion need to win 7 of their remaining 8.  I think you'll need 8 wins to have any chance at the tournament.

[sac]

'Every game matters'

Over the weekend Stevens Point beat Oshkosh on a last second 3 in OT.  That one shot was worth about .003 to Hope's SOS calculation.


..... using the NCAA's modifiers on a schedule that includes Whitewater, Stevens Point, Mt. Union, Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan......Hope's 3rd most valuable game to their current SOS calculation is Spalding. 

[KnightSlappy]

'Every game matters'

Over the weekend Stevens Point beat Oshkosh on a last second 3 in OT.  That one shot was worth about .003 to Hope's SOS calculation.

I have a .0019 change (which is nothing really). An Oshkosh win would boost Hope's OOWP via Alma, Calvin, Carthage, and UW-Stevens Point themselves (let's call UW-Whitewater a wash here).

..... using the NCAA's modifiers on a schedule that includes Whitewater, Stevens Point, Mt. Union, Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan......Hope's 3rd most valuable game to their current SOS calculation is Spalding.

Playing teams who put up good records against a soft schedule has always been a sound strategy. Although it can be difficult identifying those teams a year or two in advance.

It does look like the multipliers should be closer to 10% instead of 25%, however.

[knightvision]

The adjustment to the SOS calculations conversation got me thinking ahead a bit....what is is the likelihood that anyone other than the MIAA Conference Tournament Champion gets in to the National Tournament?

I had this conversation with a number of you several games back who are much more tuned in to all the calculations, regional rankings, pools, etc., and if there was a consensus it was that in the highly highly unlikely event that Calvin or Trine (before they each took their first loss) ran the table in the conference and lost in the conference tourney final they might get an at large bid.  That's obviously out the window now... and the likelihood based on what I've read on here, along with the "gut instinct probability formulary" that takes into account such things as hot hand theory, Bill Belichick's scientific explanation of the impact of temperature changes and barometric pressure on football inflation, and other esoteric statistical analyses is, well, extraordinarily low.  I'd love to be told otherwise...but seriously, is it really even a possibility assuming that the regular season champ ends up with two (or more likely at least three) losses?

[KnightSlappy]

The adjustment to the SOS calculations conversation got me thinking ahead a bit....what is is the likelihood that anyone other than the MIAA Conference Tournament Champion gets in to the National Tournament?

I had this conversation with a number of you several games back who are much more tuned in to all the calculations, regional rankings, pools, etc., and if there was a consensus it was that in the highly highly unlikely event that Calvin or Trine (before they each took their first loss) ran the table in the conference and lost in the conference tourney final they might get an at large bid.  That's obviously out the window now... and the likelihood based on what I've read on here, along with the "gut instinct probability formulary" that takes into account such things as hot hand theory, Bill Belichick's scientific explanation of the impact of temperature changes and barometric pressure on football inflation, and other esoteric statistical analyses is, well, extraordinarily low.  I'd love to be told otherwise...but seriously, is it really even a possibility assuming that the regular season champ ends up with two (or more likely at least three) losses?

Calvin would have been a yes before they lost to Trine. As it is now, it's still possible (though perhaps not likely). Running the table and losing the MIAA final would give the Knights an .800 winning percentage and an SOS still above .500. Depends on where all the final numbers shake out (like results versus regionally ranked opponents and actual SOS numbers), but we might be looking at Calvin being the 1st or 2nd team "on the table" in the GL Region (once the AQ teams are removed). Maybe 30% chance of getting in IF they run the table until the MIAA Championship.

Hope would have a .760 WP and a good SOS. That might be good enough, though their 'results versus regionally ranked' isn't going to look great (percentage-wise). Maybe 25% chance.

Trine would finish with a .769 winning percentage, but their SOS is still below .500. They still have Calvin and Hope to play on the road, so that will bump it up. Not sure they can get that high enough to get selected, however. Maybe 5% chance.

[Gregory Sager]

Yeah, but how often does a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better fail to make the tourney? I can't remember the last time I saw a .750-or-better team get left out in the cold, unless you go all the way back to Capital's 23-5 team in 2001-02. Perhaps I'm simply forgetting some stray unfortunate or other since then, but it's always seemed to me that .750 was sort of a benchmark of Pool C security.

[KnightSlappy]

Yeah, but how often does a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better fail to make the tourney? I can't remember the last time I saw a .750-or-better team get left out in the cold, unless you go all the way back to Capital's 23-5 team in 2001-02. Perhaps I'm simply forgetting some stray unfortunate or other since then, but it's always seemed to me that .750 was sort of a benchmark of Pool C security.

I think .800 is generally the pretty safe mark, but even then sometimes teams miss.

The data I have handy is from the '10, '11, and '12 tournaments. Looks like in those years only 11 of 26 with winning percentages of .750-.799 made the tournament with a Pool C bid. 14 of 20 teams made the tournament with winning percentages of .800-.849. No one in those three years missed with a winning percentage of .827 of higher.

[Roundball999]

Yeah, but how often does a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better fail to make the tourney? I can't remember the last time I saw a .750-or-better team get left out in the cold, unless you go all the way back to Capital's 23-5 team in 2001-02. Perhaps I'm simply forgetting some stray unfortunate or other since then, but it's always seemed to me that .750 was sort of a benchmark of Pool C security.

I think .800 is generally the pretty safe mark, but even then sometimes teams miss.

The data I have handy is from the '10, '11, and '12 tournaments. Looks like in those years only 11 of 26 with winning percentages of .750-.799 made the tournament with a Pool C bid. 14 of 20 teams made the tournament with winning percentages of .800-.849. No one in those three years missed with a winning percentage of .827 of higher.

Three years ago the Hope women were not selected, record was .815 at 22-5.  I remember being quite surprised but based on your analysis here I see it's not that unique.  Thanks for the info.

[ziggy]

Yeah, but how often does a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better fail to make the tourney? I can't remember the last time I saw a .750-or-better team get left out in the cold, unless you go all the way back to Capital's 23-5 team in 2001-02. Perhaps I'm simply forgetting some stray unfortunate or other since then, but it's always seemed to me that .750 was sort of a benchmark of Pool C security.

I think .800 is generally the pretty safe mark, but even then sometimes teams miss.

The data I have handy is from the '10, '11, and '12 tournaments. Looks like in those years only 11 of 26 with winning percentages of .750-.799 made the tournament with a Pool C bid. 14 of 20 teams made the tournament with winning percentages of .800-.849. No one in those three years missed with a winning percentage of .827 of higher.

Three years ago the Hope women were not selected, record was .815 at 22-5.  I remember being quite surprised but based on your analysis here I see it's not that unique.  Thanks for the info.

The bar based on WP and SOS numbers have been higher on the women's side. I don't know if it is less parity or what but you can even see it in the Top 25 polls. Top 22 women's teams right now have 2 or fewer losses.

[sac]

Yeah, but how often does a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better fail to make the tourney? I can't remember the last time I saw a .750-or-better team get left out in the cold, unless you go all the way back to Capital's 23-5 team in 2001-02. Perhaps I'm simply forgetting some stray unfortunate or other since then, but it's always seemed to me that .750 was sort of a benchmark of Pool C security.

I think .800 is generally the pretty safe mark, but even then sometimes teams miss.

The data I have handy is from the '10, '11, and '12 tournaments. Looks like in those years only 11 of 26 with winning percentages of .750-.799 made the tournament with a Pool C bid. 14 of 20 teams made the tournament with winning percentages of .800-.849. No one in those three years missed with a winning percentage of .827 of higher.

Three years ago the Hope women were not selected, record was .815 at 22-5.  I remember being quite surprised but based on your analysis here I see it's not that unique.  Thanks for the info.

Even more recently, the Olivet women last year were left home with a .875 at 21-3 record vs D3

So much depends on who wins the AQ in each conference.  Is it the regular season champ? or is it a team that wins it over a team that now has very good Pool C credentials?

Last year I don't think the men had many upsets nationally which allowed the Pool C pool to go deep into the 7 and 8 loss teams.  In our own Great Lakes Region  Calvin won the MIAA AQ and regular season champ Hope was able to gain a Pool C bid.  Had Hope won the AQ I doubt Calvin makes that field.  In the OAC  3rd place Wilmington won the AQ but regular season champ Mt. Union with just 6 losses was left home.    7 loss teams Wittenberg and Ohio Wesleyan were both able to gain at-large bids.



We'll get a much better idea when the first rankings come out in 2 weeks and by then Hope will have played both Calvin and Trine again.   Right now I think Calvin, Trine and Hope all need to assume they need to win out and make the MIAA Championship game to have a chance at an at-large birth.

Interesting that this year the Great Lakes Region despite being 10 schools larger than last year has 3 fewer 4 loss teams than at this time last year.  This year we have 9, last year we had 12.

[GoKnights68]

35 to 21 Calvin over Albion at the half. A hot start by Stout shooting but has since cooled off, but  with Brink coming alive with an excellent shooting performance. As expected, Calvin's height advantage hurting Albion.

[TUAngola]

Final from Olivet...Trine wins 87-74.  Olivet with a big 2nd half to take the lead, but Trine finishes strong.  Dixon is on a tear...another big night with 29 points.  In looking at the box score a couple things stand out..double digit turnovers for Trine...that rarely happens.  Olivet outrebounds Trine and has more field goals, but Trine gets to the free throw line more which is the difference in the game.  Next up at Hope on Saturday.  Their depth will probably be the difference being at home.  Trine just hasn't developed anything off the bench this year other than a couple minutes here and there to spell the starters.

[GoKnights68]

Really poor showing by Calvin to try and close out this game in the last few minutes. played like they were up 30 when they were only up 10. Turning it over and letting Albion wide open 3s wherever they want. up 2 with 15 seconds.