MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[sac]

Ben Gardner did not break his wrist.

[goodknight]

Ben Gardner did not break his wrist.

That is good news. He is a terrific player and a great competitor.

[MaroonKnighty]

I also heard it was his hand and not his wrist.

[sac]

Ben Gardner didn't break his hand

[knight4life]

I'm going to ask this question over on the women's side as well.

If the Calvin women win the first two rounds, is it likely the NCAA puts them on the road for one of the Regionals to reduce the chances of Calvin hosting all rounds?  And does that mean if the Calvin men get through the first two rounds, they have a good shot at hosting one of the men's Regionals?

According to the Hoopsville interview with Dave Martin, women's national committee chair, the possibility of Calvin hosting throughout has come up but no decisions have been made ahead of time. He seemed very comfortable with the idea that Calvin could go the entire tournament without hitting the road.

Now, the monkey wrench in that, beyond the Calvin women simply losing, is if the Calvin men survive the weekend and turn out to be a central location that all four teams in the sectional could bus to. Being a year ending in an odd number, the men get hosting priority so if the situation is such that the men's committee chooses the Calvin men to host, the Calvin women will be hitting the road no matter what the women's committee thinks of the idea of them staying home.

Thank you ... a very helpful and clear response.

I think the men get through their pod this weekend as KVS's system is built for tournament teams that have not played against him. Realistically though, what are the chances of playing at home for the second weekend?

If they do get home games, their chances of making it to the final four go up significantly. Would love to see them make a final four run with the MVP Jordan Brink leading the way!

[KnightSlappy]

I think the men get through their pod this weekend as KVS's system is built for tournament teams that have not played against him. Realistically though, what are the chances of playing at home for the second weekend?

If they do get home games, their chances of making it to the final four go up significantly. Would love to see them make a final four run with the MVP Jordan Brink leading the way!

Here's my post from the other day where I ran the numbers based on the Massey Ratings' game probabilities.

OK, so I ran the Massey numbers and it came out better than I expected. We're looking at about an 11% chance of Calvin winning and being the only host candidate within 500 miles of the other three possible sectional teams (if I have it right). And since Calvin is a 22% chance to win their pod, that means about 50% of the scenarios with them winning have this playing out.

I'm thinking it doesn't matter who comes out of the Augustana pod, Calvin (obviously) has to come out of the Mount Union pod, UW-Whitewater or Defiance have to come out of the UWW pod, and either Marietta or Medaille out of the Marietta pod (the only exception to this is it can't be DePauw, Defiance, and Marietta with Calvin, but this particular scenario is like 0.1%).

Keenly aware that I'm quite literally the only one interested in that brief probabilistic discussion.

The number say Calvin has about a 22% of winning through this weekend and an 11% chance of winning through AND hosting.

So, if you want to presuppose they win two games this weekend, they would appear to have a nearly 50-50 shot of getting to host next weekend. This is almost entirely based on geography as they're probably no better than the 8th or 9th ranked team (ranked, not talented) in that quadrant. The actual precise probability would depend on a number of factors such as actual win probabilities of each game and whether the national committee has any room to add flights (would they rather host at a more deserving Augustana, say, and fly a team like Marietta, say, instead of hosting at a less-deserving but more-centrally located Calvin where all teams can bus).

If you're looking for Men's home games next weekend, root for:

1. Augustana or Washington U. or DePauw
2. Calvin, obviously.
3. UW-Whitewater or Defiance
4. Marietta or Medaille

OR

1. Washington U.
2. Calvin, obviously
3. Defiance
4. Wooster or Marietta or Medaille

[oldknight]

Like others, I'm pleased to hear that Gardner apparently suffered no broken bone. One thing I hate about sports is injury. It seems so random and unfair and rehab is never fun for the injured athlete.

[KnightSlappy]

I think the men get through their pod this weekend as KVS's system is built for tournament teams that have not played against him.

Normally I would agree, but I'm not sure this weekend's matchup(s) will play out that way. From looking at the stats it seems that Oswego State and Mount Union are comfortable (and even prefer) shooting from the outside rather than taking it into the teeth of the defense (Neumann would be another matter). I think Calvin needs to play this game(s) more straight-up on defense and anticipate lots of three point attempts.

[realist]

I think the men get through their pod this weekend as KVS's system is built for tournament teams that have not played against him.

Normally I would agree, but I'm not sure this weekend's matchup(s) will play out that way. From looking at the stats it seems that Oswego State and Mount Union are comfortable (and even prefer) shooting from the outside rather than taking it into the teeth of the defense (Neumann would be another matter). I think Calvin needs to play this game(s) more straight-up on defense and anticipate lots of three point attempts.

Agree KS.  Both teams feature guards that like to shoot, and are good at it.  One only has to recall the OWU, and the Ripon games to see how Calvin has struggled controlling teams that play this style.  I think Calvin has the horses to get it done, but if one or the other of these teams have a player that goes off for 25+ Calvin's season could end sooner than we would like.
Felhaber for OWU went 9/12 3's for 29pts.
Sabin for Ripon only 4/10 3's, but 10/11 at the line, and 12/24 shooting.

[knight4life]

Also, who can we expect to breakout off the bench and help them get to the second round? (Denney? Huizinga? Visser? Kronemeyer?)

[Gregory Sager]

One thing I've learned from reading this room over the past few days is that the bit of satire referenced here:

--I was disappointed in the Calvin student section.

Why? Maybe this satirical Facebook post will shed some light...

SPORTS: Hope-Calvin Rivalry Remains Strong As Ever Between Our Dads.

... really wasn't very good satire.

[realist]

Also, who can we expect to breakout off the bench and help them get to the second round? (Denney? Huizinga? Visser? Kronemeyer?)

Personally I would put my money on C. Vanderbrug, but the really nice thing is even if none of them have the "breakout" type game collectively they offer so much in the way of contributions while they are on the floor.  Last Sat. the bench contributed 18 points, but so much more in the way of fresh legs it ultimately made the difference. 

[oldknight]

Also, who can we expect to breakout off the bench and help them get to the second round? (Denney? Huizinga? Visser? Kronemeyer?)

Personally I would put my money on C. Vanderbrug, but the really nice thing is even if none of them have the "breakout" type game collectively they offer so much in the way of contributions while they are on the floor.  Last Sat. the bench contributed 18 points, but so much more in the way of fresh legs it ultimately made the difference.

It's always nice to find lightening in a bottle and CVB is certainly a possibility there. But to me, the most important thing is keeping Jordan Brink healthy. The last two seasons he suffered an injury during Calvin's second round win and that injury hampered him (and Calvin) during the team's third round loss.

Pat Coleman has the men's tournament preview up (Gordan Mann does the women) and it is worth the read. Interestingly, Pat notes that Mount Union doesn't have a single player on their roster who has played in an NCAA tournament game. Oswego State, Calvin's Friday night opponent, last appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2012 so there is little or no such tournament experience on that team either. Meanwhile, if you take Calvin's top eleven players (the ones seemingly settled on by KVS), seven of them have been on the Calvin teams that have played six NCAA tournament games the last two years. Most of them have played key roles on those teams. Only Denny, Kronemeyer, VanderBrug and Welch (I think) have never seen NCAA tournament action.

[wiz]

Also, who can we expect to breakout off the bench and help them get to the second round? (Denney? Huizinga? Visser? Kronemeyer?)

Personally I would put my money on C. Vanderbrug, but the really nice thing is even if none of them have the "breakout" type game collectively they offer so much in the way of contributions while they are on the floor.  Last Sat. the bench contributed 18 points, but so much more in the way of fresh legs it ultimately made the difference.

It's always nice to find lightening in a bottle and CVB is certainly a possibility there. But to me, the most important thing is keeping Jordan Brink healthy. The last two seasons he suffered an injury during Calvin's second round win and that injury hampered him (and Calvin) during the team's third round loss.

Pat Coleman has the men's tournament preview up (Gordan Mann does the women) and it is worth the read. Interestingly, Pat notes that Mount Union doesn't have a single player on their roster who has played in an NCAA tournament game. Oswego State, Calvin's Friday night opponent, last appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2012 so there is little or no such tournament experience on that team either. Meanwhile, if you take Calvin's top eleven players (the ones seemingly settled on by KVS), seven of them have been on the Calvin teams that have played six NCAA tournament games the last two years. Most of them have played key roles on those teams. Only Denny, Kronemeyer, VanderBrug and Welch (I think) have never seen NCAA tournament action.

Welch was on last year's team, but I don't recall that he got any minutes in the tournament.

[arena]

Did Calvin's team leave for the tournament game yet?