MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[KnightSlappy]

[HOPEful]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

I would argue that the issue is only indirectly the loss of one player. Calvin has had plenty of incredible D3 players and they all left after 4 years. And they always filled in the holes. More recently, the knights have lost recruiting battles for players that traditionally would go to Calvin. Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights if they played in the 90s or 00s. Bykerk transferred back, but what made him originally choose Dordt over staying in Michigan? Trevor Gernaat came out of CRC affiliated Northern Michigan Christian but ended up at Alma instead of Calvin.

It's not just a Calvin issue. I think all of D3 will find it increasingly difficult to recruit against D2 and NAIA schools that can offer athletic scholarships. But that makes it even more important to find talent away from your traditional feeder schools. Bill Sall's best player is a sophomore guard he got to attend a college in the UP all the way from Memphis, TN! Maybe it's an outlier and Calvin will continue to pull great talent from their feeder schools for years to come... if not, perhaps arena is right and it's time to do a different kind of recruiting, starting maybe with the aforementioned coach above...

[oldknight]

This Calvin team is bad. Talent gap with Augustana was enormous. I'm not looking forward to the MIAA season.

Whether you know it or not, that's hyperbole. Augustana has more weapons than Calvin, no doubt about that, but Augustana has more weapons than almost everyone else in D3 too. TitanQ is a pretty close observer of all things CCIW and he flatly stated earlier this week that the current Vikings squad has more talent than last season's. Mighty high praise when you realize Augie was as good as anyone last year--and the year before that too. The team I saw beat Calvin today looked better than anyone who showed up at VNA last year.

I have to agree, which is why I think Calvin showed quite a bit just by fighting so evenly for most of a half.  Not only that, but they lost the rebounding battle by one one rebound.  Their biggest problem was multiple turnovers in the second half and outside shooting is a definite problem for them unless they are able to get some of the younger players more shots.  Whatever games they win in the league contests are more likely to come from close shots than from outside shooting.  Drews is very accurate if he has time and Wilks has good range and touch, but their inside game is better right now.  They do have weaknesses, but there are a lot of teams struggling right now with all of the turnover of players.

This turnover of players is not a new thing.  It happens every year to some degree.  When will Calvin stop struggling, and come into a season ready to play? Augustana and Hope both had significant turnover, but neither of them appear to be struggling. 
There is more to the equation than just the players. 

That's a perfectly fair question as last season Calvin won just 10 games, The three seasons prior, the Knights won a combined total of 72 games and went 12-2, 12-2, and 13-1 in the MIAA. I don't believe Calvin has yet adjusted to the loss of Jordan Brink. When they do, I think we'll see a winning team.

Calvin went 16-12 with Jordan as a freshman, and 13-13 for the season he was out injured.  Yes, I agree Calvin was overly reliant on him while he was there.  However, his last season was no surprise, and 50% of the players on this years team weren't even on campus then.  You use the word adjust.  I just don't see than happening.

If Calvin's 3 point shooting doesn't improve, it won't happen. I'm increasingly convinced that success is closely correlated with a team's ability to shoot a decent percentage from the arc. When Calvin went 13-13 in the 2011-12 season, the team shot .334 from the three point line. The next three seasons were highly successful ones as Calvin had a sparkling 37-5 conference record (72-17 overall) and during those years went .372, .377 and .365 from the arc. Last year's team dropped dramatically, firing (or misfiring) at .326 for the year, with a miserable .291 in conference play. So far this year the Knights are shooting .276 on three balls. Two games is a small sample size but that number isn't exactly comforting.

[HopeKnight]

Another fine game by the Flying Dutchmen yesterday in Wisconsin. A very physical game which caused Hope some foul trouble in the first half.  Hope started the game with the same frenetic energy they had in the previous game - great motion on offense and a very disruptive defense lead to a nice early lead. The foul trouble then started to hit as Stuive, Blackledge, Carlson, and Ray all had 2 fouls that limited their playing time somewhat (although Carlson played 37 minutes). Hope got some excellent minutes from McGivney, Towns, and Littleson, but UWRF fought back and hit a 30ft shot at the halftime buzzer to tie the game at 43.

The second half was all about Hope adjusting to the officiating - not sure the foul total in the 2ndhalf, but it was less than 7 with a couple minutes to go. That meant Hope got to play who they wanted when they wanted, and that makes them a very good team. Blackledge who had 8 in the first half went off for 26 second half points including a couple of 3s, but it was the entire team effort on both ends of the floor that lead to a well earned 90-81 win. Two wins via the WIAC down and two more (UWSP and UWLAX both at home) to come. Great opening weekend to the season!

Hope Varsity - Sounds like a couple excellent wins from the Varsity - I was not able to get to Wisconsin to see them. Looks like both Hawkins & Carlson are getting big minutes and Blackledge has been a beast. Both Stuive & Teddy Ray have been contributing as well. Hoping to see some more production out of the back-up guards. Looking forward to the holiday tourney this week and a championship for the Dutch.

Hope JV - I did get a chance to see the JV as they started a disappointing 0-2 with losses at Muskegon & Davenport. Coach Carlson still trying to sort through all the 15 players to determine what he has and who works well together. A few players really look like future varsity contributors including Guards: Hewitt & Zandstra along with Forwards: Ritsema & Reed & O'Daniel the other guards really struggled and had a hard time on both ends of the court. Morrison also showed some good flashes. Ritsema & Zandstra are the elite scorers & shooters while Hewitt does an excellent job running the show with O'Daniel throwing around his 6'8 frame. A nice group of talented players but only a handful that will contribute at the varsity level. It will be interesting to see who steps up as the season progresses. HK

[HOPEful]

But two games is a pretty small sample size. We'll know more about this team after this weekend's games at DeVos.

Speaking of small sample sizes, Massey currently has Hope as the #5 team in the country. Obviously skewed by their win over River Falls and River Falls win over St. Thomas.

Team            Record    Δ    Rat    Pwr    Augustana      3-0     +1      1    1.05    Marietta          3-0     +11    2    0.85    N Central        1-0     +1      3    0.84    St Thomas       2-1     -3      4    0.81    Hope               2-0     +3     5    0.78    Whitman         1-0     +5     6    0.70    Whitworth      1-0      +2     7    0.66    CNewport       2-1      -3      8    0.66    Ohio Wes       2-0      +3     9    0.66    Whitewater    2-0      +12  10   0.65    Amherst          3-0      +4    11   0.61    River Falls       2-1      +33   12   0.60    Salisbury        3-0      +11   13   0.56    Benedictine    1-2      -11    14   0.56    St Norbert      1-1      +2     15   0.56

[sac]

All this complaining about losing to the #1 team in D3 too. 

[GreatScot!?]

All this complaining about losing to the #1 team in D3 too. 

Agreed, thought the Scots played them tough, haven't watched the Calvin game, but going into the week would've been happy going 2-1 and playing Augustana tough.

[HOPEful]

All this complaining about losing to the #1 team in D3 too. 

Right!? Lawrence Tech, Finlandia, Augie... not is it only a small sample size but it's also a pretty terrible sample size to use as a barameter for how the season will unfold. Unfortunately, Cornerstone and Aquinas aren't much better.

The stretch of Carthage, Oshkosh, Wheaton, Anderson, and Milikin will be much more telling.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm convinced Massey can't actually figure out how to handle the quirks of NCAA basketball in terms of games that do or don't count and other facets. That is why I am always cautious whenever looking at Massey - which I don't even do seriously until mid-January at the earliest.

[calvinite]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights ... It's not just a Calvin issue."

I mentioned this morning to a parent of one the two H.C. grads who now start for Cornerstone that her son was mentioned on D3 Hoops. We discussed the posting, and her words were 'ABSOLUTELY he'd be at Calvin if Calvin gave athletic scholarships and he more than likely would be at Calvin without the Cornerstone (or a similar offer). I don't think anyone doubts this or is surprised by it, but at least in this one case, there's no doubt that this is the case.  Maybe, just maybe, Calvin will REALLY make him  wish he was playing for Calvin (tongue in cheek).

[HupHolland]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights ... It's not just a Calvin issue."

I mentioned this morning to a parent of one the two H.C. grads who now start for Cornerstone that her son was mentioned on D3 Hoops. We discussed the posting, and her words were 'ABSOLUTELY he'd be at Calvin if Calvin gave athletic scholarships and he more than likely would be at Calvin without the Cornerstone (or a similar offer). I don't think anyone doubts this or is surprised by it, but at least in this one case, there's no doubt that this is the case.  Maybe, just maybe, Calvin will REALLY make him  wish he was playing for Calvin (tongue in cheek).

I am pretty sure there are a few players on the cornerstone roster that would say the same thing about Hope. It is unfortunate that the rise in NAIA $$ has taken talent away from the MIAA the past few years.

[oldknight]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights ... It's not just a Calvin issue."

I mentioned this morning to a parent of one the two H.C. grads who now start for Cornerstone that her son was mentioned on D3 Hoops. We discussed the posting, and her words were 'ABSOLUTELY he'd be at Calvin if Calvin gave athletic scholarships and he more than likely would be at Calvin without the Cornerstone (or a similar offer). I don't think anyone doubts this or is surprised by it, but at least in this one case, there's no doubt that this is the case.  Maybe, just maybe, Calvin will REALLY make him  wish he was playing for Calvin (tongue in cheek).

I am pretty sure there are a few players on the cornerstone roster that would say the same thing about Hope. It is unfortunate that the rise in NAIA $$ has taken talent away from the MIAA the past few years.

Besides the money issue, another problem D3 coaches could run into when contending with NAIA programs for the same talent, is the fact that NAIA recruitment is basically without meaningful standards. The NCAA doesn't allow coaches to contact or talk to recruits 24/7, 365 days a year like NAIA coaches are free to do, and may leave prepsters and their families with the false impression that the D3 program their kid is considering just isn't as interested as the NAIA school.

[realist]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights ... It's not just a Calvin issue."

I mentioned this morning to a parent of one the two H.C. grads who now start for Cornerstone that her son was mentioned on D3 Hoops. We discussed the posting, and her words were 'ABSOLUTELY he'd be at Calvin if Calvin gave athletic scholarships and he more than likely would be at Calvin without the Cornerstone (or a similar offer). I don't think anyone doubts this or is surprised by it, but at least in this one case, there's no doubt that this is the case.  Maybe, just maybe, Calvin will REALLY make him  wish he was playing for Calvin (tongue in cheek).

I am pretty sure there are a few players on the cornerstone roster that would say the same thing about Hope. It is unfortunate that the rise in NAIA $$ has taken talent away from the MIAA the past few years.

Losing players to programs like Cornerstone, Bethel, Taylor et. al. because of scholarship $$ is not a new or even a recent thing.  The 3rd "musketeer" with Jeremy Veenstra, and Brian Foltice (in 1999) was a 6'8" kid named VanderPol who went to Cornerstone, and he was still there when Foltice "jumped ship" for the $$.  As far back as the 60's one would hear of this or that player that took the $$ at one of these schools.  It does seem to be happening more the last 20 years as the cost of a college education has sky  rocketed. 
Very hard to fault a young player or their family for taking the 40 to 60 k for playing bball for 4 years as opposed to taking on that amount of student debt.
If there is a dark side to a kid taking the $$ it is the fact the player soon learns they are a commodity.   The $$ aren't "guaranteed" for 4 years, and many of these coaches have used "the carrot on a stick"  of bigger $$ in years 2, 3, 4 to induce performance.    NAIA coaches seem to have a lot of flexibility about how they spread the $$ around so taking the $$ may not always be the "glory road" some may think it is.

[Dark Knight]

I'm convinced Massey can't actually figure out how to handle the quirks of NCAA basketball in terms of games that do or don't count and other facets. That is why I am always cautious whenever looking at Massey - which I don't even do seriously until mid-January at the earliest.

Polls (both computer and human) are notoriously inaccurate with only a couple of games' worth of data to go on. You either get large variations from week to week or you build in knowledge about how good the teams were last year--which of course is more stable but also inaccurate. 

Massey builds in data from last year, which is completely gone by the end of the season. However, Massey gives us some information that suggests how accurate the ranking would be just using the games of the current season.

Massey has previously published that the standard deviation of their game predictions is about 11 points. (If Team A is supposed to beat Team B by 15, then 68% of the time Team A will win by between 4 and 26 points.)

Massey's power rating is more or less how much a team would beat an average opponent by. It's roughly the average of a rating for each game, so it gets more accurate as more games are played--the standard deviation declines by the square root of the number of games played.

Picture it this way. If Massey says that a team has power that makes it the 25th best team, namely 7.6, there is error in that estimate that goes down as more games are played. If only one game has been played, then 68% of the time the team's true power is in the range -3.4 to 18.6. If 25 games have been played, the true power is probably in the range 5.4 to 9.8.

Here's how it currently works out for a team ranked #25: if the ranking is based on 1 game, the team's true ranking is likely in the range 1-213. If the ranking is based on 4 games, 6-84. If based on 25 games, 13-40.

Games played	Power stdev	Likely true rank
1	11	1-213
4	5.5	3-120
9	3.7	6-84
16	2.8	9-51
25	2.2	13-40

As you can see, even by the end of a season Massey's ranking should be understood to be within a few places.

Still, it's sometimes fun to say something like this: Last week, Hope played the way the #4 team in the country would be expected to play. (Or, more accurately, the way the #1 team would be expected to play.)

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

makes me wonder just how bad those teams would have been without Brink. One great player overcomes a bigger problem. Maybe Calvin's problem is deeper than adjusting to the loss of one player. Change at the top of this program is needed.

Cornerstone started Kyle Steigenga and Sam Vander Sluis on Saturday, both Holland Christian grads. It isn't a coincidence that HC's teams are the "Maroons" and IMO both of these players would have ended up as knights ... It's not just a Calvin issue."

I mentioned this morning to a parent of one the two H.C. grads who now start for Cornerstone that her son was mentioned on D3 Hoops. We discussed the posting, and her words were 'ABSOLUTELY he'd be at Calvin if Calvin gave athletic scholarships and he more than likely would be at Calvin without the Cornerstone (or a similar offer). I don't think anyone doubts this or is surprised by it, but at least in this one case, there's no doubt that this is the case.  Maybe, just maybe, Calvin will REALLY make him  wish he was playing for Calvin (tongue in cheek).

I am pretty sure there are a few players on the cornerstone roster that would say the same thing about Hope. It is unfortunate that the rise in NAIA $$ has taken talent away from the MIAA the past few years.

Besides the money issue, another problem D3 coaches could run into when contending with NAIA programs for the same talent, is the fact that NAIA recruitment is basically without meaningful standards. The NCAA doesn't allow coaches to contact or talk to recruits 24/7, 365 days a year like NAIA coaches are free to do, and may leave prepsters and their families with the false impression that the D3 program their kid is considering just isn't as interested as the NAIA school.

Actually in Division III there aren't many restrictions outside of when they can start talking to players which has been allowed recently to start earlier (halfway through their high school junior year, I believe). Division I and maybe Division II have recruiting calendars with times when coaches have to stay off the recruiting trails. In Division III, there is no such calendar for a variety of reasons. There are other standards and restrictions, but recruiting is one that hasn't been restricted outside of when they can start.