MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[HOPEful]

Probably more difficult to swallow is that they were clearly the best team in the conference all season and missed the AQ.

Of course.

I think that home loss to Alma was the crushing blow from a Pool C bid though. I think a .846 winning percentage puts them in. The .808 looks like it won't.

[ziggy]

Hope is the only MIAA to receive a Pool C bid since 2009.  They've done so 3 times  2014, 2016, 2017.

Going into selection weekend, Calvin 22-5 and Alma 21-6 might have had a shot at a Pool C in 2014 and 2016 but I can't recall.  Calvin at 17-10 in 2017 was a definite no.

SOS has been the bugaboo for MIAA Pool C chances for the last decade or so. Seems to me the teams that might have had a shot at a Pool C have been weighed down by SOS that are a little below or a little above .500 and tend to be low on the amount of games played vs. regionally ranked opponents.

[sac]

Adrian will play the hosts at North Central, winner playing Oshkosh or Transylvania.

[ziggy]

Albion was right below Marietta in the final regional rankings used by the selection committee. That means the Brits had their chance but were left on the table.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Quick Adrian @ North Central comparison. 

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Adrian	50.7	38	74.8
North Central	55.9	36.8	76
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Adrian	48.7	37.9
North Central	47.1	33.9
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Adrian	34.4	35.4	-1
North Central	34.6	32.2	2.4
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Adrian	77.6	77.1	0.5
North Central	75.3	65.2	10.1
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
Adrian	9
North Central	9.3
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Adrian	4	12	11.9
North Central	4.7	11.9	13.2
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Adrian	12.1	1.01	2.8
North Central	16.6	1.39	2.1
------
	vRRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Adrian	3 - 1	0.507	63
North Central	2 - 3	0.546	75

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I would be interested the amount of times that the result of the MIAA tournament increased the number of MIAA teams in the NCAA vs. the amount of times the results left the outright regular-season winners home...

Did a "quick" look at the last 20 years (00-01 season through 19-20).  There have been a total of 6 pool C awards to the MIAA over that time:

Albion in 05
Calvin in 06
Hope in 07, 14, 16, & 17

For all 6 of those, the Pool C went to the team who won the regular season championship, but lost in the MIAA tournament. So my first thought was - 6 times it increased the number of tournament teams. 

But then I looked a bit deeper, and I actually think that 4 of those MIAA tourney winners (who weren't regular season champs) would have potentially gotten their own Pool C had they not won the MIAA tourney (Calvin in 05 & 14, Hope in 06, and Alma in 16).  That leads me to say 2 is the actual increase due to the MIAA tournament winner not being the league champ. 

On the other side of that coin - there have been 7 league champs over the same 20 year span who did not make the NCAA tournament due to a loss in the MIAA tournament. 

[sac]

North Central Pod

Offensive efficiency or Points per possession
North Central   1.12
Adrian              1.08   
Oshkosk           1.11
Transylvania     1.13
     
The only thing I'd point out here is Adrian was wildly inconsistent especially earlier in the year, when they're on they play like a 1.1+ team.


Defensive efficiency
North Central        .97
Adrian                 1.06
Oshkosh               .99
Transylvania        1.08


Pretty clear difference between the higher seeded teams and lower on the defensive end.


Pace or possessions per game
North Central    67.34
Adrian               72.05
Oshkosh           73.61
Transylvania     70.43

North Central is a touch slower but mostly because the CCIW is a touch slower than most league, no one's going to be bothered by anyone's pace here but NCC might not like getting in a race with Oshkosh much.


Four Factors

eFG%                Off             Def
North Central     55.5             48.6
Adrian                 53.3            51.7
Oshkosh             53.2            48.7
Transylvania       54.7             55.2

Again pretty clear the higher seeds are the better defensive teams.


Rebounding
          %Off rebounds   Opp%Off rebounds
North Central      29.3             28.2
Adrian                 25.5             26.1
Oshkosh             34.8             19.1
Transylvania        32.6             25.0


I suspect Oshkosh is probably one of the best rebounding teams in the field.  For Adrian the difficulty is going to be CCIW teams are typical just a little bigger than MIAA teams, both in height and weight.  It usually shows up around the basket, but that might not actually be the case against NC.



FT Rate
North Central      32.0             27.5
Adrian                 35.5             29.1
Oshkosh             32.4              25.9
Transylvania        27.8             31.8

Adrian gets to the line alot and they're quite good when they get there.  NCC is pretty good at not giving up a lot of FT's.  If Adrian's not getting to the line they'll find scoring tough probably.


Turnover Rate
                      TO rate          Opp TO rate          Margin
North Central      17.7            19.5                    1.9
Adrian                 16.7            16.4                     -.3
Oshkosh              16.2           13.9                    -2.3
Transylvania        16.5            18.0                    1.6


Nothing stands out here except Oshkosh is a solidly negative turnover rate team.  Otherwise the only thing interesting to note is North Central usually gets more turnovers but they're facing 3 opponents who protect the ball even better than they do.
FYI  17.5 seems to be close to the national average for offensive turnover rate



Adrian has a shot Friday night if they shoot the 3-ball well, otherwise they're going to find life against North Central more difficult than anything they encountered in the MIAA.   But the fact North Central lost to Benedictine, a team Hope handled when things were more rosey in Holland, gives me some pause.   

Adrian actually matches up quite well on the interior where they might even have an advantage?   Its at guard where North Central has 2-4 inches per man.  A taller Shymanski really hampered Harris against Calvin.  Adrian's offensive fortunes this season swung when Kendall Bellamy became more of a  force and they've been good since. 

Adrian will probably find itself down a dozen points sometime early 2nd half, if North Central doesn't put them away lookout, Adrian has proven anything can happen.  I expect Oshkosh to handle Transylvania without much problem.

You'd expect Saturday night to be a rematch of the season opener for North Central and Oshkosh where Oshkosh won 71-61.  Slight favor to Oshkosh I think.

[formerd3db]

sac:
Someone should hire you and pay you big $ to be their SID!🙂

[Gregory Sager]

The phrase "pay you big $ to be their SID" reads like a cruel joke if you're an actual D3 SID.

As a general rule, that particular guild is underpaid, underappreciated, overworked ... and it's impossible to imagine D3 athletics without them.

[formerd3db]

It absolutely wasn't meant as a cruel joke. It was intended to reflect that he provided  a lot of info in his post. We all know that (especially at our DIII level) SIDs, athletic trainers, coaches, and for that matter, even team docs, are extremely underpaid, do a ton of work, and provide valuable, necessary services.. Yes, we certainly can't do without any of them nor even imagine that we could.

[Goknights2017]

I would be interested the amount of times that the result of the MIAA tournament increased the number of MIAA teams in the NCAA vs. the amount of times the results left the outright regular-season winners home...

Did a "quick" look at the last 20 years (00-01 season through 19-20).  There have been a total of 6 pool C awards to the MIAA over that time:

Albion in 05
Calvin in 06
Hope in 07, 14, 16, & 17

For all 6 of those, the Pool C went to the team who won the regular season championship, but lost in the MIAA tournament. So my first thought was - 6 times it increased the number of tournament teams. 

But then I looked a bit deeper, and I actually think that 4 of those MIAA tourney winners (who weren't regular season champs) would have potentially gotten their own Pool C had they not won the MIAA tourney (Calvin in 05 & 14, Hope in 06, and Alma in 16).  That leads me to say 2 is the actual increase due to the MIAA tournament winner not being the league champ. 

On the other side of that coin - there have been 7 league champs over the same 20 year span who did not make the NCAA tournament due to a loss in the MIAA tournament.

Thanks for doing some research on this FDF! I assume you mean the 2013-2014 Calvin team? I'm not so sure that team would have gotten a pool C bid despite the fact that they made it to the sweet 16. That team was not ranked in the final regional rankings. Two or three teams, that were ranked in the same region as Calvin, did not make the NCAA tournament. This finally ranking also would have to take into account that Calvin had not beaten Hope in that years MIAA championship game, making it even less likely they would get a pool C.  Your thoughts?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I would be interested the amount of times that the result of the MIAA tournament increased the number of MIAA teams in the NCAA vs. the amount of times the results left the outright regular-season winners home...

Did a "quick" look at the last 20 years (00-01 season through 19-20).  There have been a total of 6 pool C awards to the MIAA over that time:

Albion in 05
Calvin in 06
Hope in 07, 14, 16, & 17

For all 6 of those, the Pool C went to the team who won the regular season championship, but lost in the MIAA tournament. So my first thought was - 6 times it increased the number of tournament teams. 

But then I looked a bit deeper, and I actually think that 4 of those MIAA tourney winners (who weren't regular season champs) would have potentially gotten their own Pool C had they not won the MIAA tourney (Calvin in 05 & 14, Hope in 06, and Alma in 16).  That leads me to say 2 is the actual increase due to the MIAA tournament winner not being the league champ. 

On the other side of that coin - there have been 7 league champs over the same 20 year span who did not make the NCAA tournament due to a loss in the MIAA tournament.

Thanks for doing some research on this FDF! I assume you mean the 2013-2014 Calvin team? I'm not so sure that team would have gotten a pool C bid despite the fact that they made it to the sweet 16. That team was not ranked in the final regional rankings. Two or three teams, that were ranked in the same region as Calvin, did not make the NCAA tournament. This finally ranking also would have to take into account that Calvin had not beaten Hope in that years MIAA championship game, making it even less likely they would get a pool C.  Your thoughts?

I suspect you are right - I didn’t dig into the regional rankings but did that (the “would they have been a pool c”) mostly from memory.

[Bulldog30]

Quick Adrian @ North Central comparison. 

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Adrian	50.7	38	74.8
North Central	55.9	36.8	76
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Adrian	48.7	37.9
North Central	47.1	33.9
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Adrian	34.4	35.4	-1
North Central	34.6	32.2	2.4
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Adrian	77.6	77.1	0.5
North Central	75.3	65.2	10.1
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
Adrian	9
North Central	9.3
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Adrian	4	12	11.9
North Central	4.7	11.9	13.2
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Adrian	12.1	1.01	2.8
North Central	16.6	1.39	2.1
------
	vRRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Adrian	3 - 1	0.507	63
North Central	2 - 3	0.546	75

Thank you for the breakdown.

Very excited to see what happens. I don't think Adrian will just be happy to be there. I feel like they have an attitude about them, they'll have 2 of the best players on the court, and they'll play the role they've commonly played for the last 2 months in the majority of their games; as the underdawg.

Go Bulldawgs, and subsequently, Go MIAA!

[Bulldog30]

Rough first half for Adrian as they trail by 11 (37 to 26, I believe).

NC was in the bonus perhaps faster than I've ever seen. Maybe 5 minutes in? And then they were shooting 2 with maybe 7 or 8 minutes left.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it would say that Adrian is lucky to be just down 11. NC is hitting 3's, or did for a stretch, and Adrian, specifically Harris, are not hitting their 3's, and they are forcing a bit.

Also not having a good game are these announcers. I know it's small school stuff, but it's rough. But perhaps I was spoiled by the Albion broadcast which was fantastic.

I really like NC's offense. Lots of replacements and every movement is towards the basket. Adrian is a bit on their heels.

They're going to need to get a run early and make this a manageable deficit, because if this stays in double digits too long, they likely won't have a run in them to overtake North Central.

[iwumichigander]

Rough first half for Adrian as they trail by 11 (37 to 26, I believe).

NC was in the bonus perhaps faster than I've ever seen. Maybe 5 minutes in? And then they were shooting 2 with maybe 7 or 8 minutes left.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it would say that Adrian is lucky to be just down 11. NC is hitting 3's, or did for a stretch, and Adrian, specifically Harris, are not hitting their 3's, and they are forcing a bit.

Also not having a good game are these announcers. I know it's small school stuff, but it's rough. But perhaps I was spoiled by the Albion broadcast which was fantastic.

I really like NC's offense. Lots of replacements and every movement is towards the basket. Adrian is a bit on their heels.

They're going to need to get a run early and make this a manageable deficit, because if this stays in double digits too long, they likely won't have a run in them to overtake North Central.

Not sure the broadcast crew was NCC normal crew.  Did not sound like it to me.  Maybe Sager or AndOne can help if surfing here.