MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Quick comparison:

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Hope	50.4	31.9	72.7
Bethany Lutheran	55.8	36.4	72.9
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Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Hope	46.9	33.2
Bethany Lutheran	46.5	35.7
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Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	38.7	34.1	4.6
Bethany Lutheran	42.5	35.2	7.3
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Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	72.6	68.6	4
Bethany Lutheran	91.3	76.1	15.2
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3 point shooting	Made/game
Hope	6.8
Bethany Lutheran	9.1
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Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Hope	6.9	13.6	12.5
Bethany Lutheran	9	12.6	14.9
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Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Hope	11.5	0.85	4.2
Bethany Lutheran	18.9	1.5	4.1
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	vRRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Hope	2-3	0.535	81
Bethany Lutheran	0-1	0.507	80

[Gregory Sager]

I think the most obvious pairing is Hope/Wabash and probably at North Park who might get the #1 seed out of Region 8  that sort of matches seeds, but that could just as easily be played at Wheaton.  If Hope is sent to Oshkosh they'd likely get Carleton.

FWIW, D3hoops predicts Hope going to Wheaton to play La Crosse.

Seems strange that Wheaton would be a host site.  They had five losses, were blown out in the semi finals of the conference tournament on their home court by Elmhurst, who in turn was soundly defeated by North Park in the finals.

It's not strange at all. Everything is dictated by the five primary criteria, and Wheaton remains one of the most formidable teams in all of D3 according to those criteria.

I would like to see the tournament on Kedzie.

You and me both, brother. But it appears that the Confederates, aka the University of the South (Sewanee), won this battle aganst the North by forcing NPU to lose its hosting site to Wash U.

[Gregory Sager]

Hope draws Bethany Lutheran @ OshKosh. Massey predicts an 81-80 Hope win against the Vikings.

Yeah, well, a Massey prediction and $1.85 will get you a coffee at Starbucks.

I know how wary you guys are of trusting a Calvin grad, but, if you're going to quote anybody's predictive algorithm, use KnightSlappy's. His is actually worth something.

[pointlem]

Hope draws Bethany Lutheran @ OshKosh. Massey predicts an 81-80 Hope win against the Vikings.

Yeah, well, a Massey prediction and $1.85 will get you a coffee at Starbucks.

I know how wary you guys are of trusting a Calvin grad, but, if you're going to quote anybody's predictive algorithm, use KnightSlappy's. His is actually worth something.

Anything from KnightSlappy would be worth looking at, Greg . . . is there a link for team-to-team comparison (as well as each teams regional ranking stats)?

[Gregory Sager]

If I'm reading his efficiency ratings properly -- and I hope he'll correct me if I'm not -- he has Bethany Lutheran as a three-point favorite over Hope on a neutral court.

[AO]

The Vikings will be feeling confident coming into this matchup, always nice to not have to face the 1 seed in the first round.  They're a little undersized when Nielsen isn't on the floor but if they're playing at their pace it won't hurt them much.

[HOPEful]

If I'm reading his efficiency ratings properly -- and I hope he'll correct me if I'm not -- he has Bethany Lutheran as a three-point favorite over Hope on a neutral court.

Predictive algorithms don't hold much value for teams like Hope. Hope's been wildly inconsistent all year, in large part due to injuries. Everyone got healthier than they've been since November and the team put together a very nice run to finish the regular season. If they continue to play defense the way they have the last two weeks and can get someone like Wourman or Dykhouse to help Thomas and Quillan put points on the board, I think they have a decent shot at playing again next weekend.

If they have one of those cold spells we saw many many times this season, where they go ten minutes without making a single shot, they'll be coming home early and Bethany Lutheran will be playing Oshkosh on Saturday. When Oshkosh came to Holland back in November, Oshkosh had a 34-35 lead at halftime. Twelve minutes into the second half, it was 54-40. Similar spells in the games against Hanover, Manchester, Babson, and obviously, Calvin game 1.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Bethany Lutheran is much better than the average team coming out of their conference.  They're going to be a tough foe this year and it would not surprise me if they're favored.  They ran through a bunch of ARC wins early, played Carleton tight on the road.  I think Hope is better than their record and playing well right now, but I still think BLC would be a fairly easy upset pick.

[sac]

Hope has never played Bethany Lutheran, in fact I don't think Hope has ever played a UMAC school.

Bethany won its league by a couple games.  The UMAC was at one time a punching bag for host schools from the MIAC/WIAC in the tournament but in recent years the conference rep has pulled off some round 1 stunners and I think it was Northwestern that made a run to a Sweet 16.   Just last year Northwestern, MN lost to Pomona-Pitzer 67-66 in round 1.

The MIAA isn't exactly a shining light of conference competitiveness but the bottom of the UMAC is really bad, so using any on court metrics is going to be tough to get a good read because  30, 40 and 50+ points wins over Finlandia, Northland and Martin Luther are going to skew things really badly.  For the most part though Bethany rates much better than Hope in most areas. 

Probably the best compares are their 95-78 win over Wis. Lutheran, 79-74 win over Cenral, Ia. (you might remember Hope won a tight one with Central a year ago)  and a 99-91 loss to Carleton.  Carleton rates much higher than Hope.

Bethany plays at a very high tempo, the highest Hope has seen this year while shooting a higher number of 3's  (not quite Alma, but more like Kzoo/Olivet in quantity).  Tempo is probably not the 80 possessions per game they rate at, blowout games tend to skew possessions, but its high. 


This reminds me a lot of the Augsburg match-up played at Augustana in 2018 (93-91), high scoring will probably come down to the final possessions.  Tougher one to figure but Hope will have to play really well Friday.  It certainly will look nothing like the two tail draggers Hope had to survive this past weekend.

[sac]

For bracketologists Hope/Bethany Lutheran is a tough one to decide who the higher seed is.   On the bracket and D3 criteria its Hope, but by on court metrics I think it should be Bethany Lutheran.

In the field I think this is maybe last #2 vs 4th or 5th #3, or two high #3's.   Move Hope to just about any other pod and they'd be the #3


This will be the 2nd time Hope is in the same pod with Fontbonne but they've never played.  Fontbonne was at Wheaton way back in 2009 when Hope played the hilariously mis-seeded UW-Platteville.  I think the 3rd time for Oshkosh  2003, 2017 the others were both in Holland one at DeVos one at the Dow.  I don't think Hope has ever played at Oshkosh.

[KnightSlappy]

ziggy and I talked briefly about the Hope/Bethany Lutheran pod (and all the other pods) on our D3 Datacast episode posted this morning. This pod starts at 25:57. Shown on the screen are the computer odds and line my efficiency ratings spit out.

https://youtu.be/kS5vGq_YPGM?t=1557

[sac]

Seems Oshkosh has a bit of a online ticket snafu

All tickets will be cash sales at the Oshkosh ticket office, think 2 hrs before game time.  Their gym seats 5,600 so no issues with a sell out, probably.

[oldknight]

Multiple comments on this board in the last 24 hours have questioned Calvin's guard play and pointed to that as an area for improvement. Yes, their stat line was ugly in the MIAA title game and Hope's guards definitely got the better of them that night. That is all very fresh in our minds.

I agree with that. But Saturday night's final featured some pretty poor shooting by players in both backcourts. Ressler and Egekeze combined for 3-22, while Dykhouse and McKenzie were 3-15. The difference maker was Wourman, who I thought was spectacularly steady throughout the game, so much so that he hasn't been given proper credit for Hope's win. The East Lansing freshmen led the winners with 18 points on 5-9 from the floor, 6-6 from the stripe, and just one turnover in 33 minutes of PT.

[sac]

Brett Bultsma  6-4 G   Wayland Union will attend Hope.

[HOPEful]

Brett Bultsma  6-4 G   Wayland Union will attend Hope.

Without knowing anything else about him, I do like the idea of a 6'4" guard.