MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[realist]

DCH:  I understand the point you are trying to make, and then I look at the top 25, and see both Hope and Calvin (4-3) ranked with Albion next in line at 26.  It would seem at least the pollsters here at D3 know these schools and respect the MIAA.  I think your last post nailed it with both coaches knowing the best thing to do is win.

[sac]

With the NCAA going to something that resembles RPI, how your conference mates do is a little less important than a year ago.  Now you have to worry about how your opponents - opponents do.

I think if teams just focus on scheduleing teams from strong conferences everything in the RPI numbers should work out fine.  Right now Hope and Calvin are getting a huge benefit from playing Wheaton and Carthage, every team in the CCIW sits at .500 or above in overall record (haven't checked regional records), with Hope still to play Elmhurst and Roanoke (ODAC another strong conference) I don't think Hope will have much trouble posting a decent RPI number.

I only wish the MIAA would do better, because these last two seasons have been brutal from a historical sense.

08....24-31   .455
07....27-51   .307
06....52-35   .598
05....46-38   .548
04....27-26   .509
03....56-33   .629
02....54-37   .593
01....50-34   .595
00....58-27   .682
99....46-35   .568
98....41-39   .513

There are certainly lots of theories why its been so low last year and this, maybe the leagues playing tougher teams (plausible), there seems to be a vacant space of top Sr's around the league (plausible).  I'm not sure, maybe I'll look into the schedule's a little more.

Last spring I think I said the league would only be marginally better this season, and at least so far that seems to be playing out.  I'm not certain the improvement will show up in the W/L column but it may yet.  There are some winnable games coming, but a number of games I had penciled as winnable have been losses lately. 

Last year at this time the league was 19-35, so there's already a 5 game improvement in the W column.  A record of .500 would be a really good target for the league with some of the games to come, there are some winnable ones, but a lot of toss ups as well.  It may turn ugly.

[devossed]

thanks for all the effort to crunch the data, SAC. i'm with you in that i don't know if we can put a solid tab on what the main reason for this would be. there are many things that could get in the way, but certainly one plausible factor could be the faltering economy in michigan:

over the last few years (3-5 especially) there has been quite the influx of "MIAA talent" at the other local schools. with the cost of an MIAA education sitting in the $25,000-35,000 range, the sudden appeal of a WHAC scholarship looms large. there are so many kids now at the aquinas, cornerstone, spring arbor, davenport, kuyper, et al. places that would have been at hope, calvin, adrian, albion, kzoo during the 1990s and before.

i don't think we see such a magnified effect (though it could be there) in our neighboring schools from Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin because they haven't had the economic struggle that our state has, nor a governor who seems to be powerless to do anything about it.

also, i firmly believe in a very small, albeit real, lingering "trickle-down" effect from so many NBA rosters being inhabited by early entrants...those NCAA schools need to replace the players, and do so quite often with lesser talent. it has had an effect on D-1 recruiting at large in that many D-1 schools are now populated with what would formerly have been D-2 talent (see U-M). D-2 schools are playing with those who would have been D-3 standouts a decade ago. A lot of D-3 teams are filling the leftover spots with those they can find who would have been 1990s "JV" caliber player, and so on down the line.

and please don't get me wrong: i'm not saying that all MIAA schools are playing with JV players or anything like that...just that there has been a general talent shift over the years.

[hope1]

sac i thought  tri state would be better they are only  2-4 and  maybe if hope goes 2-0 this week and next and calvin goes 2-0  that would be nice for the league

[SKOT]

also, i firmly believe in a very small, albeit real, lingering "trickle-down" effect from so many NBA rosters being inhabited by early entrants...those NCAA schools need to replace the players, and do so quite often with lesser talent. it has had an effect on D-1 recruiting at large in that many D-1 schools are now populated with what would formerly have been D-2 talent (see U-M). D-2 schools are playing with those who would have been D-3 standouts a decade ago. A lot of D-3 teams are filling the leftover spots with those they can find who would have been 1990s "JV" caliber player, and so on down the line.

I don't think that makes much of a difference.  Over the last 3 years before you had to be a year out of high school to enter the NBA draft an average of 7.3 players made the jump straight from high school to the NBA.  That is one player per 44.9 D1 teams, per 39.5 D2 teams and per 56.6 D3 teams (using the current member schools who compete in men's basketball.)  If you assume that those 7.3 players a year are now going pro after one year, you dilute each division by 7.3 players a year.  Would it really make that much of a difference? 

2005 - 9 HS to Pro
2004 - 8
2003 - 5

3 year average of 7.3

[Gregory Sager]

thanks for all the effort to crunch the data, SAC. i'm with you in that i don't know if we can put a solid tab on what the main reason for this would be. there are many things that could get in the way, but certainly one plausible factor could be the faltering economy in michigan:

over the last few years (3-5 especially) there has been quite the influx of "MIAA talent" at the other local schools. with the cost of an MIAA education sitting in the $25,000-35,000 range, the sudden appeal of a WHAC scholarship looms large. there are so many kids now at the aquinas, cornerstone, spring arbor, davenport, kuyper, et al. places that would have been at hope, calvin, adrian, albion, kzoo during the 1990s and before.

i don't think we see such a magnified effect (though it could be there) in our neighboring schools from Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin because they haven't had the economic struggle that our state has, nor a governor who seems to be powerless to do anything about it.

also, i firmly believe in a very small, albeit real, lingering "trickle-down" effect from so many NBA rosters being inhabited by early entrants...those NCAA schools need to replace the players, and do so quite often with lesser talent. it has had an effect on D-1 recruiting at large in that many D-1 schools are now populated with what would formerly have been D-2 talent (see U-M). D-2 schools are playing with those who would have been D-3 standouts a decade ago. A lot of D-3 teams are filling the leftover spots with those they can find who would have been 1990s "JV" caliber player, and so on down the line.

and please don't get me wrong: i'm not saying that all MIAA schools are playing with JV players or anything like that...just that there has been a general talent shift over the years.

Interesting theories, but I'm not sure that I buy any of it. At this distance, I'm willing to concede to you Michiganders the proposition that the WHAC has improved and is now poaching players that were once exclusively the province of the MIAA. But I'm not so sure that the economy of the state is the reason why; the economy is sluggish here in Illinois as well, and I know from what my brother-in-law has told me that it's sluggish in Indiana as well. I think that scholarship schools across the board are just doing a better job of locating and recruiting talent than they were a few short years ago, and that parents everywhere are finding it hard to turn down that scholie money when it's waved at their kids -- not just in Michigan, but everywhere.

And, as SKOT outlined, the NBA theory is really farfetched. For one thing, the simple rise in demographics more than overwhelms any sort of trickledown effect from the higher levels of basketball.

[scottiedawg]

#22 Trinity (Texas) loses to Carthage which I assume will strengthen Hope and Calvin's chances for a possible pool C bid.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

#22 Trinity (Texas) loses to Carthage which I assume will strengthen Hope and Calvin's chances for a possible pool C bid.

Wow. Carthage is all over the place this year.

[devossed]

thanks for all the effort to crunch the data, SAC. i'm with you in that i don't know if we can put a solid tab on what the main reason for this would be. there are many things that could get in the way, but certainly one plausible factor could be the faltering economy in michigan:

over the last few years (3-5 especially) there has been quite the influx of "MIAA talent" at the other local schools. with the cost of an MIAA education sitting in the $25,000-35,000 range, the sudden appeal of a WHAC scholarship looms large. there are so many kids now at the aquinas, cornerstone, spring arbor, davenport, kuyper, et al. places that would have been at hope, calvin, adrian, albion, kzoo during the 1990s and before.

i don't think we see such a magnified effect (though it could be there) in our neighboring schools from Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin because they haven't had the economic struggle that our state has, nor a governor who seems to be powerless to do anything about it.

also, i firmly believe in a very small, albeit real, lingering "trickle-down" effect from so many NBA rosters being inhabited by early entrants...those NCAA schools need to replace the players, and do so quite often with lesser talent. it has had an effect on D-1 recruiting at large in that many D-1 schools are now populated with what would formerly have been D-2 talent (see U-M). D-2 schools are playing with those who would have been D-3 standouts a decade ago. A lot of D-3 teams are filling the leftover spots with those they can find who would have been 1990s "JV" caliber player, and so on down the line.

and please don't get me wrong: i'm not saying that all MIAA schools are playing with JV players or anything like that...just that there has been a general talent shift over the years.

Interesting theories, but I'm not sure that I buy any of it. At this distance, I'm willing to concede to you Michiganders the proposition that the WHAC has improved and is now poaching players that were once exclusively the province of the MIAA. But I'm not so sure that the economy of the state is the reason why; the economy is sluggish here in Illinois as well, and I know from what my brother-in-law has told me that it's sluggish in Indiana as well. I think that scholarship schools across the board are just doing a better job of locating and recruiting talent than they were a few short years ago, and that parents everywhere are finding it hard to turn down that scholie money when it's waved at their kids -- not just in Michigan, but everywhere.

And, as SKOT outlined, the NBA theory is really farfetched. For one thing, the simple rise in demographics more than overwhelms any sort of trickledown effect from the higher levels of basketball.

*please read between the lines of what i'm saying. note that i didn't say "the NBA was the reason..." i only said the NBA opened things up for D-1 schools to need to replace talent. but now it has become a problem on a bigger scale at D-1 schools, for many reasons that's beyond the NBA. the point i'm making is that overall talent can be said to be "overachieving" in many cases beyond where they traditionally would have played...is that really worth negative karma, when i didn't even bash GVW or ask WWKVSD?


*and looking at the following stats, i don't see that there's much denying michigan is in worse shape than it's neighbors. granted, i'll give you that others have struggled, but not to the tune of being a national leader:

Current Unemployment Rates for States
http://www.bls.gov/web/lauhsthl.htm

Oct. 2007
State Rate
Illinois 5.3
Indiana 4.6
Iowa 3.9
Michigan 7.7
Minnesota 4.7
Mississippi 6.1
Ohio 5.9
Wisconsin 5.2

[Gregory Sager]

I noted your point about the NBA creating the need to replace talent at the D1 level. I simply don't think it's pertinent, because as SKOT pointed out the attrition rate of D1 players leaving for the pros is negligible.

And posting a chart of unemployment rates for midwestern states strikes me as a bit of overkill, and really something of a reach if you're trying to extrapolate college basketball recruiting theories from it. My point is that western Michigan is really not that unique in terms of its small-school recruiting setup, vis-a-vis scholarship schools vs. D3 schools.

[Stinger]

Hornets vs. Beavers tonight.   This Bluffton team is coming off a beat down of Adrian.  They are averaging 80 points a game and have 5 guys in double figures, nearly 6.    It's obvious that the Hornets need a great defensive game.  They are giving up 80 pts a game at this point.   That is unbelievable.   

The Hornets need this game. They are off until Jan 8th, with the mandatory week break over the holidays.  This would be a nice finish to the year with Marygrove off in the distance.

[calvinite]

I note in the D3 Hoops top 25, there are more teams with 2 and 3 losses than usual (at least looking back at week 3 for the past couple years), and far fewer 0 loss teams. That might help Calvin (possibly Hope, too, but right now I'm thinking Calvin's far more likely to need it) a C pool bid since Calvin already has the three losses. At the moment, however, I'm more worried about the regular season than the post-season.

Can anyone explain to me what a 'flex-offense' is? I've been told Calvin runs a flex-offense. Is it a common type of offense? What other types of offenses are there? Does a flex offense involve the team waiting to see if Caleb's going to shoot it, and if not, being 'flexible' and trying something else? Although I'm not really being serious with this last comment, I'm not being entirely sarcastic either?

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Smiley

[Stinger]

Can anyone explain to me what a 'flex-offense' is? I've been told Calvin runs a flex-offense. Is it a common type of offense? What other types of offenses are there? Does a flex offense involve the team waiting to see if Caleb's going to shoot it, and if not, being 'flexible' and trying something else? Although I'm not really being serious with this last comment, I'm not being entirely sarcastic either?

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Smiley

Watch Maryland. They run the flex. I always found it an incredibly simple offense that  was easy to defend.  It amazes me to see college level teams run this offense.   Here's what Coach Fran has to say:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/2003/0218/1510637.html

[northb]

I note in the D3 Hoops top 25, there are more teams with 2 and 3 losses than usual (at least looking back at week 3 for the past couple years), and far fewer 0 loss teams. That might help Calvin (possibly Hope, too, but right now I'm thinking Calvin's far more likely to need it) a C pool bid since Calvin already has the three losses. At the moment, however, I'm more worried about the regular season than the post-season.

Can anyone explain to me what a 'flex-offense' is? I've been told Calvin runs a flex-offense. Is it a common type of offense? What other types of offenses are there? Does a flex offense involve the team waiting to see if Caleb's going to shoot it, and if not, being 'flexible' and trying something else? Although I'm not really being serious with this last comment, I'm not being entirely sarcastic either?

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Smiley

Keep in mind that 2 of Calvin's 3 losses are to an NAIA team and would have no bearing on the NCAA Pool C selection process.  I'm not even sure if the other one counts, due to the in-region rules (other, more knowledgable posters will know this for sure). 

In moflt juriflidictionfl a flex offense ifl puniflhable by a flix to ten-year priflon flentence.   

[ChicagoHopeNut]

The new D3hoops poll is out. I believe it came out this morning. Nothing has changed really. Hope remains at #8 but has picked up 24 more points. Calvin is locked in at #24. Elmhurst has also stayed at #21 so tomorrow's Hope-Elmhurst matchup will be a battle of Top 25 teams. Big game late tonight though first! Go HOPE!