MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[northb]

Well, it appears to me that the first step would be to collect some data.  I do not have the inclination to search this out, but maybe SAC or someone else that enjoys the stats could compile some info.  How many close games has Hope been in and how many have they lost?  Without seeing the data, remember that if you are in a close game, the odds are you will lose 50% of them.  I wonder if fans of perenial winners sometimes figure their team a ought to win a greater percentage of the close ones.  The game is close because the 2 teams are evenly matched.

I was actually thinking about this, since I'm not sure of the totals myself.  However I didn't want homework over Christmas........but since I've been assigned the task (sigh).

I counted close games as single-digit margins, its just hard to quantify what a close game is, I've seen plenty of single-digit games/leads that seemed very comfortable.  There are several single-digit games in Hope's past that were double-digit leads before the dogs were called off.  I've used just the last 2 seasons, 1) for simplicity 2) because the games are the freshest in my memory.

Unfortunatley the Hope or MIAA stat crews didn't start using the running play-by-play untill last season.  I'd rather use the 5 minute mark as a guide but at least for 2006 just the final score will have to do.

2006--8 games, 6-2 record
11/25/05       vs Aquinas            W    67-66   
12/9/05        MADONNA              W    83-76     
12/10/05       AQUINAS              W    82-75     
12/28/05       LAKELAND             W   54-46     
01/21/06     at Alma                W    85-76       
2/8/06        at Calvin                       58-59  L   
03/04/06       CALVIN                 W    70-67       
03/10/06       at Wittenberg              49-56  L   

I can only share what memories of these games I have left.  First one that stands out is 1-21 vs Alma, Hope had a 24 point lead and the end of the bench came in with 5 minutes left and stunk up Cappaert Gym, so much so the starters had to come back to seal it with a minute left.  9 point margin, but not a close game.

2-8 Calvin, if I'm not mistake Hope held a 4 point lead with just about 1 minute or so to go and only scored 4 or 5 points in the final 5 minutes.

3-10 Wittenberg was a 1 or 2 point game with only a couple minutes left and only scored 3 or 4 points down the stretch with numerous opportunities to do so.  Witt went several trips without even a shot at the bucket.

2007 11 games, 6-5 record
11/24/06       vs Cornerstone            W    80-76     
12-1-06        at Carthage                         65-71  L     
12-2-06        vs Wheaton                         70-73  L     
12-16-06       at Aquinas                   W    65-62   
12-18-06       PURDUE NO. CENTRAL W    88-79       
12-30-06       ROCHESTER                 W    76-74       
01/13/07     * at CALVIN-M               W    65-62       
02/05/07     * at ALBION-M               W    78-71       
02-07-07     * CALVIN-M                           71-77  L   
02-24-07       CALVIN-M                           76-78  L   
3/10/07        vs Washington                     55-58  L   

I'm going to look at 2007, using the final 5 minutes of ballgames.
   
Cornerstone, Hope with 7 point lead, Go 0-5 from floor, 8-10 from line 2 turnovers
RESULT = WIN by 4

Carthage, Hope trails by 4, 1-7 from floor, 7-8 from line, no turnovers
RESULT = LOSS by 6

Wheaton, Hope with 4 point lead, 2-6 from floor, 2-2 FT, 1 turnover, outscored 10-3 in final 2:58
RESULT = LOSS by 3

Aquinas, no play by play, however I recall Hope leading and AQ rallying to tie the game late, Hope wins on 25 foot 3 pointer at the buzzer

Purdue North-Central, Hope has a 14 point lead with 2 minutes remaining, not really a close finish.

Rochester, Hope leads by 4, 4-7 from floor, 2-3 FT, 1 turnover, missed front end of 1 for 1 that gave Rochester a last second 3 that could have won.
RESULT = WIN by 2

Calvin, Hope leads by 4, 2-7 from floor, 1-2 FT, missed 2 shots in final minute that could have made life simpler, missed FT gave Calvin a chance to tie at buzzer.
RESULT = WIN by 3  (did make the key defensive play to win game)

Albion, 10 point lead with 5 to go, 10 point lead with 1 to go.  Is it a close game, I'm not sure.  Hope scores all FT's in the final 4 1/2 minutes to win.

Calvin, trail by 2, 0-7 from floor, 8-8 from line, 3 turnovers, Hope takes a 2 point lead with 2 1/2 to go
RESULT = LOSS by 6

Calvin, trail by 7, 4-9 from floor, 4-4 FT, 1 turnover, Hope missed last 2 shots, one in a tie game, one to win, no points in final minute
RESULT = LOSS by 2

Washington, trail by 10, 7-12 from floor, no FT's, one turnover (occured down by 4 with 2 minutes left)
RESULT = LOSS by 3


2008--3 games, 1-2 record
11/23/07       vs Aquinas                         69-78  LOT 
12-08-07       AQUINAS                    W    68-59       
12/19/07       vs Elmhurst                        71-74  L     

Aquinas, no play by play, but Hope has 5 point lead with just a under a minute to go in regulation.  Does not score while AQ steals the game with a midcourt steal and last second 3.  Dominate OT
RESULT = LOSS by 9 in OT

Aquinas, Hope 7pt lead, 0-3 from floor, 6-8 FT, 1 turnover, Hope has an 8 point lead with just under 2 to go.  Is that close?
RESULT = Hope win by 9

Elmhurst, Hope trails by 1, 1-5 from floor, 5-6 FT, 3 turnovers,
RESULT = LOSS by 3


So the overall record is 13-9, not sure I'd call all of those close games or more appropriately close finishes.

Maybe all of this is just what losing teams do in the final 5 minutes, not sure.
However, if you can't see the patern for Hope's shooting and general poor execution  in the final 5 of close games..........well I can't really help you.  Even in victory its less than steller.  Many of the 2006 games were exactly the same.


2005 = 4-7
2004 = 3-3
2003 = 5-5
2002 = 7-7

+++++k for you, SAC.

I would suggest that a continued refinement of this analysis would drop the Alma types of games, the ones that were never in doubt (so sad that that is the best way to describe them, "Alma-types").  The Hope record in close games is pretty even ('05 notwithstanding).  IMHO, the next step in analysis (not that any assignment is being made!!! ) is to compare what another team has done (perhaps the Knights) in close games; or another option would be to identify what the opponents have done in the Hope games.  My guess is that it would be pretty similar outcomes--you win if you continue to make your baskets, but a good opponent keeps the other team from doing so.  If they are close at the end of the game, then by definition they are a worthy opponent.

[sac]

I'll just break down even easier, since a large part of the thesis (argument whatever you want to call it) is that Hope has struggled in the closing minutes against good D3 teams.

Vs D3

2006
12/28/05       LAKELAND             W   54-46     
2/8/06        at Calvin                       58-59  L   
03/04/06       CALVIN                 W    70-67       
03/10/06       at Wittenberg              49-56  L
2007
12-1-06        at Carthage                         65-71  L     
12-2-06        vs Wheaton                         70-73  L     
01/13/07     * at CALVIN-M               W    65-62       
02-07-07     * CALVIN-M                           71-77  L   
02-24-07       CALVIN-M                           76-78  L   
3/10/07        vs Washington                     55-58  L
2008
12/19/07       vs Elmhurst                        71-74  L

This makes the record 3-8, and just 1-7 going back to the 2006 NCAA tournament.


I threw out these games, since they really weren't close finishes
01/21/06     at Alma                W    85-76       
02/05/07     * at ALBION-M               W    78-71 

[sac]

....and with that, have a wonderfull holiday season.

PS  Keep the Wii controllers straped on tightly, we don't want any broken big screen tv's. 

[oldknight]

....and with that, have a wonderfull holiday season.

PS  Keep the Wii controllers straped on tightly, we don't want any broken big screen tv's. 

+k to sac for his non-pc wish to all.

[northb]

Now that analysis makes the problem a lot clearer. 



Note to KVS--coach for the first 35 minutes against Hope, then get some Hudsonville Ice Cream and let them self-destruct the last 5 minutes.   

[Roughrider]

I'm on a terminal at a public library out of town on vacation.  Had to go right to the reference section and look up solipsistic.   

Vacation is always nice, but I'm looking forward to getting back home to my own desktop resources.

Roughrider

[Roughrider]

For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord. . . .  Luke 2:11

Merry Christmas to all on the board!

Roughrider

[scottiedawg]

I'm watching the livestats for the Augustana-UW Stevens Point game, and the players on the floor have their names in bold.  Any chance Hope adds this perk to their livestats?

[John Gleich]

It's nice SD... nicer that UWSP's as well.  I like how it's got the running score up on the top as well as the team stats too.

If you want to listen to the broadcast, go to www.b1049.com  They've had technical difficulties a couple of times (including right now) but the Point radio guys are enthusiastic (not exactly neutral, but not blatantly homer)

[northb]

Not an MIAA game, but of interest to our league:

Grace Bible College 92
Cornerstone 90

Grace was 0-30 combined against Calvin, C'stone, Aquinas, GVSU and Hope.

[hope1]

that might be intersting hope plays grace bible friday night and they only have 9 players

[dumezrules]

I'll just break down even easier, since a large part of the thesis (argument whatever you want to call it) is that Hope has struggled in the closing minutes against good D3 teams.

Vs D3

2006
12/28/05       LAKELAND             W   54-46     
2/8/06        at Calvin                       58-59  L   
03/04/06       CALVIN                 W    70-67       
03/10/06       at Wittenberg              49-56  L
2007
12-1-06        at Carthage                         65-71  L     
12-2-06        vs Wheaton                         70-73  L     
01/13/07     * at CALVIN-M               W    65-62       
02-07-07     * CALVIN-M                           71-77  L   
02-24-07       CALVIN-M                           76-78  L   
3/10/07        vs Washington                     55-58  L
2008
12/19/07       vs Elmhurst                        71-74  L

This makes the record 3-8, and just 1-7 going back to the 2006 NCAA tournament.


I threw out these games, since they really weren't close finishes
01/21/06     at Alma                W    85-76       
02/05/07     * at ALBION-M               W    78-71 

In offending your position (isnt offending the opposite of defending? You could always throw out Calvin games since in my memory Hope has lost alot of those even when they had great inside presence (Bosma, Overbeek, Guginos etc.  ) and other great players (Elliot, Holstege)  Last years Wash game I believe that Hope trailed the whole game and the 3 point margin was basically as close as they were the whole game....(Hope may have either tied or taken the lead early in the 2nd half but then lost it again)  They lost that game because of poor shooting by about everyone but Cramer....

I know you have not stated an opinion as to why but there was an earlier post about the lack of an inside game for Hope....

[northb]

I'll just break down even easier, since a large part of the thesis (argument whatever you want to call it) is that Hope has struggled in the closing minutes against good D3 teams.

Vs D3

2006
12/28/05       LAKELAND             W   54-46     
2/8/06        at Calvin                       58-59  L   
03/04/06       CALVIN                 W    70-67       
03/10/06       at Wittenberg              49-56  L
2007
12-1-06        at Carthage                         65-71  L     
12-2-06        vs Wheaton                         70-73  L     
01/13/07     * at CALVIN-M               W    65-62       
02-07-07     * CALVIN-M                           71-77  L   
02-24-07       CALVIN-M                           76-78  L   
3/10/07        vs Washington                     55-58  L
2008
12/19/07       vs Elmhurst                        71-74  L

This makes the record 3-8, and just 1-7 going back to the 2006 NCAA tournament.


I threw out these games, since they really weren't close finishes
01/21/06     at Alma                W    85-76       
02/05/07     * at ALBION-M               W    78-71 

In offending your position (isnt offending the opposite of defending? You could always throw out Calvin games since in my memory Hope has lost alot of those even when they had great inside presence (Bosma, Overbeek, Guginos etc.  ) and other great players (Elliot, Holstege)  Last years Wash game I believe that Hope trailed the whole game and the 3 point margin was basically as close as they were the whole game....(Hope may have either tied or taken the lead early in the 2nd half but then lost it again)  They lost that game because of poor shooting by about everyone but Cramer....

I know you have not stated an opinion as to why but there was an earlier post about the lack of an inside game for Hope....

Those players would not apply to the games he cites

[almcguirejr]

I'll just break down even easier, since a large part of the thesis (argument whatever you want to call it) is that Hope has struggled in the closing minutes against good D3 teams.

Vs D3

2006
12/28/05       LAKELAND             W   54-46     
2/8/06        at Calvin                       58-59  L   
03/04/06       CALVIN                 W    70-67       
03/10/06       at Wittenberg              49-56  L
2007
12-1-06        at Carthage                         65-71  L     
12-2-06        vs Wheaton                         70-73  L     
01/13/07     * at CALVIN-M               W    65-62       
02-07-07     * CALVIN-M                           71-77  L   
02-24-07       CALVIN-M                           76-78  L   
3/10/07        vs Washington                     55-58  L
2008
12/19/07       vs Elmhurst                        71-74  L

This makes the record 3-8, and just 1-7 going back to the 2006 NCAA tournament.


I threw out these games, since they really weren't close finishes
01/21/06     at Alma                W    85-76       
02/05/07     * at ALBION-M               W    78-71 

In the the 3 Hope losses to Calvin I believe GVW has shortened his bench in these game and it has cost them.  I could probably investigate that but it's late.

[AndersDY]

Some very nice work by Sac. That's probably as close as we're going to get to turning the point into a statistical question. You would basically have to go through it game by game, but the situation that I envision in my mind is Hope having a 5-8 point lead with around 5:00 left in a game. It seems that in that situation where the game is not completely put away, but an evenly matched team should win most often, Hope fails to protect that lead more often that would seem logical.

Certainly in games which are close the whole way, you'd expect the results to go either way, but Hope seems to need a sizeable lead to cling to for the last few minutes. It seems like we only win at the end if the defense succeeds because the offense so rarely does. But perhaps that's just because Hope has been carried by their defense in recent history?