MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Gregory Sager]

And you can find logical arguments to support either point of view.  Although this may vary from team to team, the thinking goes that in the first two games of a season, the team that wins has done things right, and the team that loses has done things wrong.  They can change the things they did wrong, and the game should be closer.  Now the winning team can do more things right, too, but there may be a law of diminishing returns.

Your theory presupposes that basketball is simply a game of adjustments, and that's just not true. Basketball is also a game of talent and skills. If one team has a clear superiority over the other in terms of talent and skills, then the other team probably isn't going to be able to overcome that ability gap with coaching adjustments -- especially since two wins over a team establishes more clarity in terms of an ability gap than does one win. Keep in mind as well, that the winning team is just as capable of making adjustments as is the losing team.

[Gregory Sager]

Tell that to the 2006 Detroit Tigers (who swept the Cards during the season).

Irrelevant. Baseball is a different sport, with different outcome determinants than basketball.

Or the 2007 Hope College Flying Dutchmen, for that matter.

The 2007 Hope College Flying Dutchmen lost to the St. Louis Cardinals after having swept them during the season? Wow, I need to check this site's scoreboard more closely.

I'll use Albion as an example of why it might be harder to beat the same team a third time in one year:

At Calvin, Albion won by 5pts.  In their second meeting, the theory goes that Albion should have had "homecourt advantage", and should have won more easily than the first game.  We all know that's not what happened...Albion won by one on a "3" and a prayer at the buzzer.  This week, if the two meet again, Albion would be foolish to think that they are "definitely better than Team B".  Calvin improved on their first performance and nearly beat Albion the second time around.  Maybe the third time's a charm.  Of course, they first have to fix whatever went wrong on Saturday and get past Olivet.

I never said that all outcomes are equal. It's patently obvious that a team that wins by five and by one over a specific opponent has established less dominance over that opponent than, to continue to use Albion as Team A, it has over another opponent whom it has beaten twice, by margins of 16 and 12 (i.e., Olivet). Nevertheless, the burden of proof is upon those who use the cliche. While it may be true in a specific instance (as I've conceded to FDF that it is in the case of this year's Calvin and Albion teams, or in the case of Hope and Calvin pretty much every year due to the pressures players are under in Rivalry games), it doesn't translate from the specific to the general -- and thus the cliche is false. In other words, if you can't say it for Hope and Alma this year, than it holds no water as a general truism.

Plenty of teams have been down 0-2 on this series or that, and come back with a string of wins all their own.  It's why they play the games.

I never said otherwise. Upsets are an important part of the game of basketball. But you can't make a general working rule out of upsets -- or they cease to be upsets altogether.

By the way...when I read sac's post, I thought he was agreeing with you.  You sound pretty defensive in your response.

Defensive? Hardly. I'm just enjoying a good debate, as always.

[realist]

Quoting from Pat:
"The 42 points for 25th place is a pretty low number, easy to achieve. I put them 22nd on my ballot, so that was four points. If only nine of the other 24 voters did the same, there you are.

Perhaps some voters got some extra intel on Albion, or a scouting report, that helped them evaluate Albion's rough patch as well."
[/quote]

Pat:  Thanks for voting for Albion at 22.  
However, I think you are still missing the point of the post which I answered to Sac.  You even seem to be ignoring some of your previous polls.  Yes, 42 points is "low, and easy to achierve", but then again so were: 44 points from week 12; 47 points from week 10; 56 points from week 3; 58 points from week 4.   I still can not find any team that went from not being mentioned in the h.m. list one week  to the top 25 the following week except for Albion.     If going from 0 one week to 42 points the following week is "easy to achieve" how come it doesn't happen more often during a season?  To me this is a question you should be asking the "experts" you use to make your poll.     Along with how could they collectively miss any team going on a 10-0 run anytime during the season, and especially a team that previously rated as high as 54 points ( missing the top 25 list by 2) the 3rd week of the season?  What "new intel" are you saying your pollsters missed. except that Albion was winning games, and also they missed a non-ranked team beating a highly ranked team in the process.  You do nothing to inspire confidence in your poll with a rather flippant answer.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Big games tonight. Certainly the most interesting will be Adrian-Trine and Calvin-Olivet, although I expect Calvin to bounce back nicely after Saturday's embarrassing effort.

[wiz]

Hope beat Calvin twice this year - but this is Hope vs Calvin - 168 games played, Hope 85 Calvin 83 and the "best" team doesn't always win.
[/quote]

I don't know about that.  Looks to me like the best team won 83 times.

[calvin_grad]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

[realist]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications.  Hope sure knows it's womens team is #1, and the men's team is #3, and yes, they mention it regularly in their articles.  Every other ranked team knows exactly where they are in these polls.  For the sponsor of a poll to give a weak, flippant answer just shows disdain for his own work product.
My entire point in doing the posting I did was to point out what could be a bias in the selection of ranked teams.  Sadly the NCAA uses some of the same methods in determining regional rankings, and those could have tremendous impact for Hope, and perhaps Albion if they fail to win the AQ.  If Pat's pollsters could miss Albion's winning streak than so could the NCAA miss any MIAA team's performance.
If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications.  Hope sure knows it's womens team is #1, and the men's team is #3, and yes, they mention it regularly in their articles.  Every other ranked team knows exactly where they are in these polls.  For the sponsor of a poll to give a weak, flippant answer just shows disdain for his own work product.
My entire point in doing the posting I did was to point out what could be a bias in the selection of ranked teams.  Sadly the NCAA uses some of the same methods in determining regional rankings, and those could have tremendous impact for Hope, and perhaps Albion if they fail to win the AQ.  If Pat's pollsters could miss Albion's winning streak than so could the NCAA miss any MIAA team's performance.
If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

I disagree with classifying Pat's answer as flippant but that's just my reading. That said, yes, it is true Albion has a long winning streak but really a long winning streak in the MIAA this year isn't all that special. The only truly impressive win was beating Hope in a tight game at home. Every other win was beating teams hovering around .500 or far below it. Now all Albion can be asked to do is beat the teams in the conference but with 5 losses the fact Albion is just now entering the poll isn't that surprising. The only other teams ranked with 5 or more losses come from the UAA, WIAC, and CCIW. Far superior conferences to the MIAA this year from top to bottom.

[calvin_grad]

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications. 

If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

Schools mention polls because it sounds good and maybe it slightly helps in recruiting.  It's nice to be able to say you're #1, #3, etc.  Perhaps I should clarify my point.

IMHO, and I may be way off here, polls are done to give the media something to do and to give fans something to argue about and some way of comparing teams that probably won't play each other all year.  When it all comes down to it, it doesn't really matter whether Albion is #23, #25, honorable mention, or how far they jump from week to week.  That's what I mean when I say that the polls in D3 hoops don't really mean anything.  When March rolls around, JUST WIN BABY!!

I'm far from a D3 hoops expert, but aren't the regional rankings used to determine Pool C bids, home court, etc.  That's an entirely different poll.

[Pat Coleman]

Realist: I don't think the nature of the new intel is appropriate for this public forum. I hope you'll respect that. Thanks.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

I'm far from a D3 hoops expert, but aren't the regional rankings used to determine Pool C bids, home court, etc.  That's an entirely different poll.

You are correct. The NCAA's regional rankings are all that matter for the NCAA tourney.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

In looking back at last year's Hope team and this year's I realized that this is the second year Hope will enter the MIAA tourney at 21-3. Last year's team when on the the Elite Eight and finished the year at 26-5 (Other loss was to Calvin in the MIAA finals).

For sake of argument I wonder if people think this year's team is better or worse prepared to succeed in the MIAA and NCAA tourney. I don't know why but there is part of me that has really felt that this year's team isn't nearly is good as last year's. (Part of that is probably the fact the only game I saw in person was the Albion game at home, yuck! and the absence of Cramer). But looking at the hard numbers there really isn't any reason for me to think that way.

I also think that D3 as a whole may be more convoluted. I think there are 15-20 teams with a legitimate shot of making a Final Four and National Championship run.

[Pat Coleman]

I also think that D3 as a whole may be more convoluted. I think there are 15-20 teams with a legitimate shot of making a Final Four and National Championship run.

I agree -- this is going to be a fun tournament.

[ScotsFan]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications.  Hope sure knows it's womens team is #1, and the men's team is #3, and yes, they mention it regularly in their articles.  Every other ranked team knows exactly where they are in these polls.  For the sponsor of a poll to give a weak, flippant answer just shows disdain for his own work product.
My entire point in doing the posting I did was to point out what could be a bias in the selection of ranked teams.  Sadly the NCAA uses some of the same methods in determining regional rankings, and those could have tremendous impact for Hope, and perhaps Albion if they fail to win the AQ.  If Pat's pollsters could miss Albion's winning streak than so could the NCAA miss any MIAA team's performance.
If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

To answer your questions, I happen to agree with calvin_grad in that the general purpose of most polls is to give us fans something to discuss.  The D3hoops.com Top 25 is basically a poll for us fans to discuss and debate and have fun with. 

The NCAA Regional Rankings, on the other hand, are the guidelines that are used by the selection committee when filling out the brackets for the NCAA tournament.  They are more than just a poll for us fans to discuss as they have a direct bearing as to who makes it and who doesn't make it into the field of 59. 

Furthermore, the D3hoops.com poll has no bearing whatsoever on how the NCAA Regional Polls are determined.  Just look at the GL Region as a perfect example.  Hope is ranked 3rd in the D3hoops.com poll and they were ranked below previous #8 Capital and previous #12 Wooster in the D3hoops.com poll.  Going by that, I wouldn't think that the people doing the regional polls are too concerned whether Albion would be ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25 or not...

The D3hoops.com poll is done very well IMHO.  I really don't think you should waste so much energy being critical of a poll that has no bearing whatsoever on the post-season aspirations of Albion.  The NCAA GL Regional poll is the one you should focus on for that.

[realist]

Realist: I don't think the nature of the new intel is appropriate for this public forum. I hope you'll respect that. Thanks.

No problem.  You are the one that mentioned it in the first place.  My only comments regarded the Albion win streak.  Honestly,  I was surprised you even alluded to it in your post.
FWIW:  I only linked the NCAA regional rankings, and Pat's poll to make the point IMHO both are subject to potential bias.  With what great insight does the NCAA determine that wins by Ohio teams are inherently more worthy than wins by MI teams?  Is it possible a pollster could be biased to his conference?  Remember this is the NCCA