New England Soccer Discussion

[ECSUalum]

Keene State drops a Little East Conference game to ECSU 2-0. 6'2"So Xavier Doran had a beautiful header off the Danny Manfeddi corner for one goal and JD Stearns scored the first goal off a breakaway and clinical finish.  Doran had a 30 yrd wonder goal, (see below), rocket off the dribble into the upper 90 in the hat trick with WestConn and is really stepping up big in these important conference games.

http://easternct.prestosports.com/sports/msoc/2015-16/videos/Xavier_Doran_Hat_Trick_Goal

[Off Pitch]

Updated New England rankings from the spreadsheet that closely replicated last year's "real" rankings.

1.  Amherst     8-0
2.  Brandeis     9-1
3.  UMass-Boston    10-0
4.  Eastern Connecticut State    9-1-1
5.  MIT           8-1
6.  Middlebury   6-1-1
7.  WPI           9-2-1
8.  Endicott     8-1-1
9.  Gordon      8-2
10.  Wesleyan   5-2-1
11.  Conn         6-2-1
12.  Wheaton    8-4
13.  Tufts          5-3-1
14.  Springfield   8-2

Note:  I can't duplicate the actual SOS without investing a lot of time to come up with OOWP data, but I have updated the spreadsheet with 2015 OWP numbers.

The real Strength-of-Schedule (SOS):

The weighted OWP-OOWP, never specified but deduced to be
2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP

[blooter442]

Beating a dead horse, but there's a ton of parity this year not just nationally but also in New England, as evidenced by this week's regional rankings. Who would have guessed, for example, that CCC teams Gordon and Endicott would both be in the regional top 10 ahead of Middlebury and Tufts?

CCC: While I'm a little unsure that either of the two CCC sides mentioned are indeed better than Midd or Tufts, I do think that the CCC teams are perhaps finally getting equal footing in regional rankings. Aside from the absolute farce of a year, 2013, when three CCC teams made the Tournament and were all knocked out in the first two rounds - Gordon by Amherst, WNE by Williams, and Roger Williams by Brandeis - I think the CCC actually hasn't been given its due. But with Endicott picking up a good point against Calvin and Gordon beating ECSU, I think they are in about the right place. Drop another conference game or two, though, and I think their places might become untenable.

NESCAC: While Midd has only lost one game, and plays an admittedly much more difficult conference schedule than anyone in the CCC, its absolute joke of a non-conference schedule means that it hasn't really been tested yet. I think we'll have a much better idea about Midd after this weekend - once they play Tufts and Wesleyan. Tufts, meanwhile, started the year #1 and garnered much praise from all corners, who possibly considered them the team to beat not just in the NESCAC but nationally - myself included. However, an 0-3-1 stretch has the Jumbos looking like half of the team they were before. A mid-season blip, or showing of its true colors? I imagine the former, as two of those losses were hard-luck and came in 2OT, but you never know.

Bottom line: If you're talking a one-loss CCC team vs. a one-loss NESCAC team in a tie for a certain spot, I would hands down give it to the NESCAC side. That said, when the NESCAC teams are racking up three, four losses, and ties to go with it, and the CCC team only has one loss, I think you've got to give the lesser-blemished side its due.

UMASS-Boston is another interesting one that I haven't quite decided how I feel about. The Beacons are 10-0, which is admittedly impressive. However, it is worth remembering that while last year's side finished with 14 wins and got to the NCAA Tournament, they got hammered 8-0 by Tufts. Their game against ECSU this weekend will be a great indicator of where they are. While I'm selfishly disappointed they didn't schedule Brandeis or Tufts, as both games would have been great matches as well as being super convenient for me, I have to give them kudos for putting Babson away and MIT away on the schedule, as those are both programs with good pedigrees and will be good tests for the Beacons.

[ECSUalum]

Beating a dead horse, but there's a ton of parity this year not just nationally but also in New England, as evidenced by this week's regional rankings. Who would have guessed, for example, that CCC teams Gordon and Endicott would both be in the regional top 10 ahead of Middlebury and Tufts?

CCC: While I'm a little unsure that either of the two CCC sides mentioned are indeed better than Midd or Tufts, I do think that the CCC teams are perhaps finally getting equal footing in regional rankings. Aside from the absolute farce of a year, 2013, when three CCC teams made the Tournament and were all knocked out in the first two rounds - Gordon by Amherst, WNE by Williams, and Roger Williams by Brandeis - I think the CCC actually hasn't been given its due. But with Endicott picking up a good point against Calvin and Gordon beating ECSU, I think they are in about the right place. Drop another conference game or two, though, and I think their places might become untenable.

NESCAC: While Midd has only lost one game, and plays an admittedly much more difficult conference schedule than anyone in the CCC, its absolute joke of a non-conference schedule means that it hasn't really been tested yet. I think we'll have a much better idea about Midd after this weekend - once they play Tufts and Wesleyan. Tufts, meanwhile, started the year #1 and garnered much praise from all corners, who possibly considered them the team to beat not just in the NESCAC but nationally - myself included. However, an 0-3-1 stretch has the Jumbos looking like half of the team they were before. A mid-season blip, or showing of its true colors? I imagine the former, as two of those losses were hard-luck and came in 2OT, but you never know.

Bottom line: If you're talking a one-loss CCC team vs. a one-loss NESCAC team in a tie for a certain spot, I would hands down give it to the NESCAC side. That said, when the NESCAC teams are racking up three, four losses, and ties to go with it, and the CCC team only has one loss, I think you've got to give the lesser-blemished side its due.

UMASS-Boston is another interesting one that I haven't quite decided how I feel about. The Beacons are 10-0, which is admittedly impressive. However, it is worth remembering that while last year's side finished with 14 wins and got to the NCAA Tournament, they got hammered 8-0 by Tufts. Their game against ECSU this weekend will be a great indicator of where they are. While I'm selfishly disappointed they didn't schedule Brandeis or Tufts, as both games would have been great matches as well as being super convenient for me, I have to give them kudos for putting Babson away and MIT away on the schedule, as those are both programs with good pedigrees and will be good tests for the Beacons.

Blooter,
Excellent commentary.  +k.  After watching UM Boston a number of times, I have noticed, while they have talented players, there is a bit of arrogance in the way they play.  Perhaps I use the wrong terminology, as it is a bit hard to explain, but hopefully Coach Beverlin nudges them out of this "attitude" on the pitch, before they get to the NCAA tournament, or they will get a rude awakening when they play top ranked NESCAC, NJAC, or SUNYAC sides. 
As I stated before, ECSU will have to play strong physical D vs the Beacons and have an A+ game from the scoring side if they want to have a chance at winning the conference and the auto bid.

[blooter442]

Blooter,
Excellent commentary.  +k.  After watching UM Boston a number of times, I have noticed, while they have talented players, there is a bit of arrogance in the way they play.  Perhaps I use the wrong terminology, as it is a bit hard to explain, but hopefully Coach Beverlin nudges them out of this "attitude" on the pitch, before they get to the NCAA tournament, or they will get a rude awakening when they play top ranked NESCAC, NJAC, or SUNYAC sides. 
As I stated before, ECSU will have to play strong physical D vs the Beacons and have an A+ game from the scoring side if they want to have a chance at winning the conference and the auto bid.

Much appreciated. As I said, not sure how I feel about UMASS-Boston, but Gordon and PSU aside I have been impressed with what I've seen so far from ECSU. Really don't think there's much between the two teams, and like I said, UMB hasn't really had any significant tests yet, while ECSU has gone on the road and done well this year. I'd say the Warriors have a very good chance on Saturday, as well as in the conference tourney.

[Mr.Right]

This is exactly what happened in 2013 as Nescac teams were beating each other up. The difference this year is that Newmac teams are doing the same. I believe the regional rankings in a couple weeks will look a BIT different than the coaches poll. Gordon still has Tufts and Endicott has Williams. If those 2 CCC sides win those games then I will agree with you that they deserve my praise

[blooter442]

That is interesting, and you're correct Mr.Right, the NEWMAC has really beat up on each other this year, unlike in 2013 when MIT and Wheaton were the clear favorites. WPI seems to be the favorite in the NEWMAC - three-horse race between MIT, Wheaton, and Babson for second. I'd pick MIT out of the three of them thus far, but MIT has played mostly weak competition, although if they were able to get a result at Brandeis tonight I think that would get people talking.

Did not know that Gordon scheduled Tufts. Kudos to them. I remember Endicott had Williams on the schedule last year but didn't know they were playing this year. That one should be a very even game. I think CCC schools scheduling a NESCAC game or two during the year not only behooves them in the sense that they're "battle-tested," but also allows us to really get a sense for where they are in the NE region. If you just run train and go 11-1 or something like that and win your conference tournament, but then stumble in the first two rounds of NCAAs then that doesn't make for a great narrative. It's worth mentioning that the three CCC teams that made it in 2013 all did make it out of the first round, but then promptly fell in the second round. A game or two against a NESCAC team might have helped them be more ready.

That said, it would really behoove other CCC teams like RWU to consistently schedule either a nearby NESCAC - perhaps Tufts, Conn, or Wesleyan - or Brandeis. I know Roger Williams has had Wheaton and MIT this season, handing MIT its only loss so far, and they usually have Babson on the schedule, but no Beavers this year, and I think playing Wesleyan last year was a one-off. I know the Brandeis and Roger Williams women used to play pretty much every year up until 2014, but from what I remember the men had not played at all in recent history until the 2013 Tournament 2nd Round. Obviously schedules are dependent on a number of factors, but Brandeis and Roger Williams would be a no-brainer: it's literally an hour up 95, both schools have lights so either could host, and they could easily pull it off in a weeknight. Then again, RWU isn't so competitive this year, so perhaps it makes sense that they took Babson off and didn't replace them with another opponent of similar caliber.

Update: I stand corrected - WNE in particular actually has had a NESCAC (mostly Wesleyan) on the schedule most years. That said, nobody - not even Amherst - could stop Williams in '13 (or '12, for that matter.)

[Mr.Right]

Well it is tough because Nescac's only have 5 out of conference games. Hamilton will stay strictly in Upstate NY. The 3 Maine schools will stay mostly in Maine except Bowdoin has always played Babson and used to usually play Wheaton. Colby surprisingly took on Wheaton this year. Middlebury stays in Vermont. Amherst has gradually gotten better with WNEC and WPI. So it might be more Nescac's fault than anyone else's. I know at the past Nescac coaches meeting they discussed out of conference scheduling because they were disappointed only Tufts and Amherst got At-large bids.

[ECSUalum]

Nice update on UMass Boston from D3Soccer!!
http://www.d3soccer.com/seasons/men/2015/contrib/20151006l3tm0d

[blooter442]

Wheaton vs. Trinity is shaping up nicely so far...Lyons went up 1-0 in the first 10 minutes but Trinity has responded well and only an excellent point-blank save from the Wheaton GK has kept them off the board. Finely poised.

[ECSUalum]

Brandeis 0 MIT 0

[Off Pitch]

Strength-of-Schedule (SOS):

The weighted OWP-OOWP, never specified but deduced to be
2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP

Samples of some current OWPs (Opponents winning %):
Babson        78-34-5   0.688
Brandeis      72-38-6   0.646
Amherst      44-33-6    0.566
Middlebury   38-34-4   0.526
Mass-Boston 56-55-2  0.504
ECSU           50-52-7   0.491
MIT             42-62-2   0.406

[Mr.Right]

Strength-of-Schedule (SOS):

The weighted OWP-OOWP, never specified but deduced to be
2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP

Samples of some current OWPs (Opponents winning %):
Babson        78-34-5   0.688
Brandeis      72-38-6   0.646
Amherst      44-33-6    0.566
Middlebury   38-34-4   0.526
Mass-Boston 56-55-2  0.504
ECSU           50-52-7   0.491
MIT             42-62-2   0.406

That does not bode well for Little East teams and MIT, which frankly is shocking. Brandeis is looking at hosting if they can go pretty clean rest of the way...

What about Wesleyan and Conn and WPI?

[Off Pitch]

Wesleyan     44-37-6   0.540
Conn           44-45-8   0.499
WPI             61-67-8   0.449

Note that these opponent's winning percentages are through games scheduled including today, but they do not include games yet to be played beyond 10/7.

[TennesseeJed]

Babson just goes up 1-0 on UMass-Boston in about 30'.  Live stats crediting Mandel for shot, w/ assist by Parker.  Ball clearly hit off defender and then snuck by GK into the goal.  Some question whether it will be considered an own goal or not.