New England Soccer Discussion

[Off Pitch]

Oct 26 regional rankings and blemishes since 10/23:

1.  Amherst             
2.  Tufts                   - two L's to Bowdoin, now 9-5-2
3.  Mass- Boston      - T Keene St
4.  Clark                  -  L to Wheaton
5.  Middlebury         -  L to Williams
6.  Rhode Island
7.  Babson
8.  Brandeis
9.  Williams             -  L to Midd, now 9-4-3
10.  Conn                -  L vs Hamilton, now 10-5-1
11.  Coast Guard     -  L to Springfield and L to Mass-Dartmouth now 9-5-3
12.  WPI                  - L to MIT

[Off Pitch]

Projected New England rankings based on games through today:

                                W-L        %       SOS
1.  Amherst           14-1-1    .906     .565
2.  Mass-Boston     15-1-2    .889     .537
3.  Rhode Island    14-3-1    .806     .579
4.  Babson             11-4-3    .694     .614
5.  Brandeis             9-4-3    .656     .637
6.  Middlebury       10-3-3    .719     .566
7.  Bowdoin             9-3-4    .688     .557
8.  Tufts                   9-5-2    .625     .604
9.  Williams             9-4-3     .656     .595
10.  Clark              14-4-0     .788    .541
11.  Springfield     16-1-1     .917    .480
12.  Conn              10-5-1     .656    .558

Next 3:  Endicott, WPI, Wheaton

[Mr.Right]

Mr.Right's Project New England Regional Rankings:

1. Amherst
2. UMASS Boston
3. Brandeis
4. Babson
5. Rhode Island College
6. Tufts
7. Bowdoin
8. Midd
9. Williams
10. Clark
11. Endicott
12. Conn




FW,

Remember when the committee used to say if your SOS is under .500 you cannot get a Pool C? Is that still going on? Also, I forget ir you are under .500 SOS can you even be Regionally Ranked?  What are the 2016 rules on this and what are the future rules going to be on this? I remember about 5 years ago this was the rule.

[Off Pitch]

Heat to head competition is one of the five primary critera used for rankings.  Consequently:

I would be quite surprised if Tufts is ranked directly ahead of Bowdoin given that they lost to Bowdoin in head to head play TWICE in the last week.

Similarly, Brandeis and Babson should be very close, BUT Babson beat Brandeis in their only meeting.

Lastly, when considering Middlebury and Bowdoin:
   - Middlebury has a better won-loss %
   - Middlebury has a better SOS
   - Middlebury beat Bowdoin
Middlebury should be ranked ahead of Bowdoin.

One more thought, I was tempted to also drop Rhode Island because of their RvR, but that hasn't changed since last week and the committee did not drop them then.  Otherwise, I would agree that they should be below both Brandesi and Babson.

[PaulNewman]

Hard to keep up with the  R v R with teams dropping out and teams coming in but by my count Brandeis has 6 wins (John Carroll got ranked last week).  By the 4th week Babson will lose Coast Guard and WPI.  UMass-Boston also only 1-0-1.  And Brandeis has an enormous SoS.

Wonder if the order of the NESCACs will go Midd, Bowdoin, Tufts.  Very, very close and Tufts has the 4 ranked wins.  And are they above or below RIC.

[Mr.Right]

You could be right but they are looking at the FULL season not just the past week. For that, I think Tufts does stay ahead of Bowdoin but it will be very interesting who the Top 8 in New England will be and more importantly the order of the Top 8. I think we can AGREE on one thing the committee will surprise us with something that makes no sense at all.

[PaulNewman]

With Midd at 10-3-3 and 3-2-1 R V R I'm gonna predict it goes Midd, Tufts, Bowdoin.  I think Bowdoin has to get a result vs Amherst. And I think Midd may have to beat Hamilton to stay ahead of Tufts.  And RIC probably needs another ranked win which they aren't gonna get unless they win the AQ which makes that moot.  Babson could use another ranked win as well.  Will be interesting to see who the last couple of ranked teams are this week.  Endicott seems like a strong possibility.  Maybe Wheaton?  Would hope for Springfield but don't think that is going to happen unless SoS gets over .510 which seems unlikely.

[blooter442]

Similarly, Brandeis and Babson should be very close, BUT Babson beat Brandeis in their only meeting.

It is interesting to wonder what will happen. Babson did defeat Brandeis and has a slightly better WP, but Brandeis' RvR was better than Babson last week (3-3-2 vs. 2-3-2, and that's without the Emory or Rochester wins) and their SoS was significantly superior (.614 vs. .637), so you have to wonder what weight the committee gives each piece of primary criteria. I personally would guess that WP would reign supreme, and that - combined with the H2H win - would mean that Babson would be ranked above Brandeis, but it is evident that teams with good RvR and SoS have been rewarded in the past, so I can't say for sure.

[Flying Weasel]

FW,

Remember when the committee used to say if your SOS is under .500 you cannot get a Pool C? Is that still going on? Also, I forget ir you are under .500 SOS can you even be Regionally Ranked?  What are the 2016 rules on this and what are the future rules going to be on this? I remember about 5 years ago this was the rule.

It was 2010 when they implemented a .500 SOS threshold for the regional rankings (on what basis was never clear), but it created such a reaction when an undefeated Dominican and undefeated Swarthmore were left out of the first weekly rankings.   A week later they had already abandoned the threshold and Dominican and Swarthmore, despite ironically both picking up their first losses that week, were ranked #3 in the Mid-Atlantic and #2 in the Central regions.  As far as I know, they didn't try that again until possibly two years ago in 2014 when it seemed very suspiscious that Luther went from #2 in the North region in week 1 with a.518 SOS to unranked in Week 2 after winning a pair of games by shutout but seeing their SOS drop just below .500.  It was posted that the committee denied any threshhold was being used.  So officially, there is no .500 SOS threshold.  Now whether there is an unwritten, unspoken one at work, . . . . .

[Mr.Right]

NOTE:  It could be quite possible that the Little East gets 3 teams into the NCAA's. If ECONN or WCONN win the LEC tournament they would steal the AQ. UMASS Boston and RIC who I have seen about 2-3 times are dangerous sides and IMO will get Pool C's. However, an organized side like ECONN and a up and coming WCONN have the potential to win 2 games and grab the AQ. Bubble teams should be keeping an eye on this league and hope for no upsets. I think RIC will get by WCONN but ECONN and UMASS Boston will be an interesting one. UMASS Boston has more talent, skill and a nasty striker and nasty CM. That being said, ECONN can be extremely organized  and very hard to break down. They have already beaten UMASS Boston 2-1 this year and are a tremendously FIT team. They will run all day. My issue from a distance is Coach DeVito seems to be overly negative and can get really down on his players. He is a good coach but I think needs to be a bit more positive with his players and he might get even more from them. Hence all the transfers, etc... Conn's Murphy has the same reputation.

[ECSUalum]

NOTE:  It could be quite possible that the Little East gets 3 teams into the NCAA's. If ECONN or WCONN win the LEC tournament they would steal the AQ. UMASS Boston and RIC who I have seen about 2-3 times are dangerous sides and IMO will get Pool C's. However, an organized side like ECONN and a up and coming WCONN have the potential to win 2 games and grab the AQ. Bubble teams should be keeping an eye on this league and hope for no upsets. I think RIC will get by WCONN but ECONN and UMASS Boston will be an interesting one. UMASS Boston has more talent, skill and a nasty striker and nasty CM. That being said, ECONN can be extremely organized  and very hard to break down. They have already beaten UMASS Boston 2-1 this year and are a tremendously FIT team. They will run all day. My issue from a distance is Coach DeVito seems to be overly negative and can get really down on his players. He is a good coach but I think needs to be a bit more positive with his players and he might get even more from them. Hence all the transfers, etc... Conn's Murphy has the same reputation.

Well stated Mr Right!!  ECSU has an uphill battle, playing away, (much better team on their home grass field) and the fact that UMB's coach and players will want to atone for the early season loss!  In addition ECSU is not a particularly good post season performer and just does not have anybody that can finish this year.  I would be more concerned with RIC as they would like to dump UMB after last years exit in the LEC finals.  My prediction RIC for LEC champs!!

[Off Pitch]

the NSCAA unReal rankings for 11/1/16:

1   Amherst            14-1-1
2   Mass-Boston      15-1-2
3   Middlebury         10-3-3
4   Babson               11-4-3
5   Brandeis             10-4-3
6   Springfield          16-1-1
7   Williams                9-4-3
8   Rhode Island      14-3-1
9   Bowdoin               9-3-4
10   Endicott           12-5-2

Also receiving votes: Tufts (1)

[Off Pitch]

They're here.  The real 11/2 New England rankings

1.  Amherst
2.  Mass- Boston
3.  Babson
4.  Brandeis
5.  Tufts
6.  Middlebury
7.  Rhode Island
8.  Clark
9.  Williams
10.  Bowdoin
11.  Endicott
12.  Wheaton

Surprises:  Tufts only fell to #5 and Clark only to #8.

Rhode Island dropped due to 1-3 RvR and Springfield (16-1-1) is still absent due to their awful .493 SOS.

[blooter442]

One question - when they say a team's record vs. ranked, that is derived using the previous week's statistics, correct?

By my count Brandeis is 5-4-1 against teams ranked this week but the data sheet on D3soccer.com shows 6-3-2 RvR. All of Brandeis' (10-4-3) four losses have been to ranked teams this week (Babson, Chicago, Tufts, Wheaton) as well as 1 draw (Carnegie Mellon) but they have 5 ranked wins (Clark, Emory, Haverford, Rochester, WashU). Can someone clarify?

[Flying Weasel]

The RvR is based on teams ranked last week.