FB: Empire 8

[FisherAlum05]

Now that the NCAA D-3 has dumped the QoWI in favor of the Opponents' Win % and Opponents' Opponents' Win % Strength of Schedule index, anyone know if the E8 is retaining the QoWI as the third tiebreaker or switching with the NCAA?  An answer probably should be given immediately if not sooner by the E8 since this could easily come into play this year again.

Not too sure on that.  But, if a three way tie occurs at the top of the E8, Alfred will have the best strength of schedule by far.  Fisher will have the second best SOS.  Hartwick will be third.  I think this is reflected well in the SOS schedule numbers that were just released.  Alfred and Fisher are up near the top, and Hartwick is somewhere in the middle of the rankings. 

If Fisher and Alfred finish at 9-1 (with Fisher defeating Alfred), and Hartwick wins out for 8-2, I think we can assume that Fisher gets the AQ, Alfred a Pool C, and Hartwick will land in the ECAC's.  It would be cool to see 3 Empire 8 teams make the NCAA tournament.  It would say alot for our conference.  But I just don't think it can happen in the current scheme of things. 

I'm thinking the E8 and the NJAC get two teams in, with the LL getting one bid.  But, if Hobart can beat Alfred then all hell will break loose.  And, should Union beat RPI, things will be even more messed up.  If RPI finishes 9-1, but doesn't get the AQ, they could steal a pool C from either the E8 or NJAC.  I think were in for a very exciting finish in the East Region this year!

[FisherAlum05]

During my last post, I got to thinking about the possibilities in the East Region.  It's just crazy.  I think this year, things are harder than ever to predict.  So many quality teams.  Fisher, Alfred, Hartwick, Cortland, Montclair, New Jersey, Rowan, RPI, Hobart, and Union are all in the hunt for NCAA bids.  Even Ithaca, Springfield, and Rochester are still alive although they must win out and hope for some help.  Thats 13 teams from the E8, NJAC, and LL that could get a bid. 

[Frank Rossi]

I took the liberty of ranking the East Region only based on the SOS figures, to the best that I could figure out, from the NCAA Manual, the way they're treating each component.  It appears that Opponents' Opponents' Win % is ONLY a tiebreaker for Opponents' Win % in the rankings.  Thus, this SOS indexing is deceiving; it's only focusing really on Opponents' Win % (I ran the entire chart and ordered the teams based on the index to the left of each name, and Column C descended in lock-step).  I think you'll agree that when you see these results by region here, they produce some odd results:

##  Team                   Conf  A     B    C    D
--  ---------------------- ---- ---  ---- ---- ----
1   New Jersey             NJAC 4-1  .800 .760 .477
2   Brockport State        ACFC 2-2  .500 .758 .485
3   Springfield            E8   3-3  .500 .689 .549
4   Buffalo State          NJAC 1-4  .200 .677 .471
5   Hartwick               E8   4-2  .667 .661 .469
6   Endicott               NEFC 1-5  .167 .661 .441
7   King's                 MAC  0-6  .000 .650 .447
8   Western New England    NEFC 2-5  .286 .643 .489
9   Western Connecticut    NJAC 1-2  .333 .633 .409
10  Fitchburg State        NEFC 0-6  .000 .600 .425
11  Utica                  E8   2-4  .333 .589 .468
12  Norwich                E8   2-5  .286 .588 .446
13  St. Lawrence           LL   2-3  .400 .580 .473
14  Westfield State        NEFC 3-3  .500 .578 .441
15  Plymouth State         NEFC 6-0  1.00 .556 .506
16  Montclair State        NJAC 5-1  .833 .542 .627
17  Worcester State        NEFC 4-3  .571 .533 .431
18  Rowan                  NJAC 4-1  .800 .530 .570
19  Hobart                 LL   4-2  .667 .528 .490
20  Salve Regina           NEFC 1-5  .167 .525 .425
21  Lycoming               MAC  1-5  .167 .508 .384
22  Union                  LL   4-2  .667 .494 .501
23  Alfred                 E8   6-0  1.00 .481 .623
24  Delaware Valley        MAC  3-2  .600 .480 .627
25  Susquehanna            LL   1-6  .143 .474 .474
26  Kean                   NJAC 1-4  .200 .470 .473
27  MIT                    NEFC 1-5  .167 .467 .433
28  St. John Fisher        E8   6-1  .857 .464 .598
29  Merchant Marine        LL   0-7  .000 .457 .452
30  Coast Guard            NEFC 5-1  .833 .456 .509
31  Worcester Polytech     LL   4-2  .667 .456 .465
32  Bridgewater State      NEFC 4-2  .667 .444 .468
33  FDU-Florham            MAC  2-4  .333 .442 .452
34  Ithaca                 E8   4-2  .667 .439 .605
35  Lebanon Valley         MAC  1-5  .167 .439 .461
36  Mount Ida              Ind. 2-5  .286 .438 .461
37  Husson                 Ind. 4-2  .667 .428 .543
38  Maine Maritime         NEFC 4-2  .667 .428 .497
39  Massachusetts Marit.   NEFC 2-5  .286 .421 .488
40  Mass-Dartmouth         NEFC 4-3  .571 .419 .527
41  Nichols                NEFC 4-2  .667 .417 .521
42  RPI                    LL   5-0  1.00 .413 .566
43  Rochester              LL   3-3  .500 .411 .520
44  Wilkes                 MAC  2-4  .333 .392 .468
45  Widener                MAC  3-2  .600 .390 .580
46  Framingham State       NEFC 2-4  .333 .383 .506
47  Becker                 Ind. 1-5  .167 .361 .429
48  William Paterson       NJAC 2-4  .333 .350 .505
49  Cortland State         NJAC 4-1  .800 .347 .578
50  Albright               MAC  5-1  .833 .342 .574
51  Curry                  NEFC 7-0  1.00 .314 .572
52  SUNY-Maritime          Ind. 2-3  .400 .293 .480

A = Regional W/L
B = Regional Win %
C = Opponents' Win % (excluding game vs. that team)
D = Opponents' Opponents' Win % (excluding game vs. that opponent)

[FisherAlum05]

Frank, 

I doubt that you are right here.  The SOS is based on opponents win % and opponents opponents win %.  It would make no sense to have opponents opponents win % a tie breaker.  When I get home later I will check into this.  In your made up scenario, teams like Utica, Hartwick, Endicott, and Norwich are higher than Alfred and St. John Fisher.  This makes no sense.  Look at who Alfred and Fisher play against who Utica and Hartwick play.

Guys, I would trust the SOS numbers on the front page.  This ranking above is absolutely ridiculous.

[FisherAlum05]

Pat,

If you are around, could you please explain what Frank has posted above?  I believe it is bologna but I would like your input.  Since you are the guru 

[Knightstalker]

It looks like Franks ranking is correct, the rankings are for the East region and they match up with Pats.

[AUKaz00]

Frank's numbers do mesh with the original SOS numbers that Pat has posted.  Those figures are missing some teams though and I agree that only using OWP is a funny way of deciding things.  If there is a straight average of OWP and OOWP used then here are the East teams with their current SOS national rankings:

##    Team                   
--    ----------------------
9      Brockport State       
10     Springfield           
11     New Jersey             
29    Montclair State       
38     Buffalo State         
47     Western New England   
48     Hartwick               
58    Delaware Valley       
60    Alfred                 
61     Endicott               
62    Rowan                 
63     King's                 
77    Plymouth State         
78    St. John Fisher       
81    Utica                 
85    St. Lawrence           
94    Ithaca                 
95     Western Connecticut   
98    Norwich               
102   Fitchburg State       
103    Westfield State       
105   Hobart                 
114   Union                 
121   RPI                   
124   Husson                 
125   Widener               
127   Coast Guard           
128   Worcester State       
132   Salve Regina           
133   Susquehanna           
136   Mass-Dartmouth         
142   Kean                   
146   Nichols               
148   Rochester             
154   Maine Maritime         
155   Cortland State         
156   Worcester Polytech     
157   Albright               
160   Bridgewater State     
163   Massachusetts Marit.   
165   Merchant Marine       
172   MIT                   
173   Lebanon Valley         
175   Mount Ida             
179   FDU-Florham           
180   Lycoming               
181   Framingham State       
183   Curry                 
189   Wilkes                 
192   William Paterson       
204   Becker                 
208   SUNY-Maritime         

I also cannot figure out how Frank gets his formatting so perfect.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank, 

I doubt that you are right here.  The SOS is based on opponents win % and opponents opponents win %.  It would make no sense to have opponents opponents win % a tie breaker.  When I get home later I will check into this.  In your made up scenario, teams like Utica, Hartwick, Endicott, and Norwich are higher than Alfred and St. John Fisher.  This makes no sense.  Look at who Alfred and Fisher play against who Utica and Hartwick play.

Guys, I would trust the SOS numbers on the front page.  This ranking above is absolutely ridiculous.

I think you understand my consternation with this analysis.  Like I asked someone earlier...how does this criterion apply when you're looking at an 8-2 team vs. a 7-2 or 7-3 team?  How do those numbers below allow for any type of use in such a scenario?  My biggest qualm is the Endicott scenario -- the NEFC combined with the RPI and WPI cames allowed this to transpire.  I think this proves the problem with this SOS in the first place.

[Pat Coleman]

"The number next to them is where they rank in opponents' winning percentage (though without ties). Provisional Division III teams and the NESCAC, which does not participate in the playoffs, are not listed."

I thought this covered that in the listing of SOS. Frank just re-sorted them. We sorted them to bring the playoff contenders to the top.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank's numbers do mesh with the original SOS numbers that Pat has posted.  Those figures are missing some teams though and I agree that only using OWP is a funny way of deciding things.  If there is a straight average of OWP and OOWP used then here are the East teams with their current SOS national rankings:
...
I also cannot figure out how Frank gets his formatting so perfect.

When the BCS applied OWP and OOWP back in 1998/1999, they chose to use a 2/3 and 1/3 totaling (2/3 OWP and 1/3 OOWP) before spitting out a ranking for each team.  If you look at OOWP, though, the numbers are very close (they look like MLB W/L percentages -- nothing usually outside .425 and .575 except for a few exceptions).  This is probably because when you average such numbers in OOWP, you're basically taking league play of that team into consideration much more (and all league play ends up averaging out at .500 for every league).  I actually think the QoWI did a better job at allowing an at-a-glance view of the best and worst of teams and how their strengths of schedule played into it.  I think simply tinkering with some math of QoWI was a better idea so that, as Pat would put it, a win against Ithaca and Mt. Ida might not lead to the same point award.

[superman57]

Ok so I am really bored and really tired and having just seen Across the universe I am on a Beatles kick so here it goes the each E8's team song that goes to the Beatles song

Ithaca-With a little help from my Friends I picked this song because the Bombers need a lot of help to make the playoffs so they need a little help from their friends...


Alfred-Don't Let me Down This should be obvious...the Saxons are in the drivers seat as long as they don't let kazoo Jr. down they will be dancing for the first time..

Hartwick-Revolution Man it must be a Huge revolution if the hawks are in the picture for the E8 aq...

Fisher-It Won't Be Long now This is still the team that took it to Mount Union for 3 quarters and was only 12 points from going to the Stagg Bowl...if they don't make the NCAA's it should be one of the biggest disappointments in a long time.

Norwich-I've Just Seen a Face and that face was the face of Pierre Garcon

Springfield-If I Fell Springfield is having a down year will Chris Sharpe be able to pick them up for the next two games

Utica-All You Need is Love nuff said...someone show the Pioneers a little love

[SJFF82]

all this talk of numbers and formulas, etc.. is exactly what the proponents of the non-play-off BCS rely upon in part to support their position that even if they go to a play-off format, there is going to be extreme critical analysis of how the play-off teams are determined and constant grieving by teams who are on the outside looking in come Nov-Dec...look at all this microscopic analysis going on here...AND WE HAVE a play-off...not saying I agree, but......

[SJFF82]

Ok so I am really bored and really tired and having just seen Across the universe I am on a Beatles kick so here it goes the each E8's team song that goes to the Beatles song

Ithaca-With a little help from my Friends I picked this song because the Bombers need a lot of help to make the playoffs so they need a little help from their friends...


Alfred-Don't Let me Down This should be obvious...the Saxons are in the drivers seat as long as they don't let kazoo Jr. down they will be dancing for the first time..

Hartwick-Revolution Man it must be a Huge revolution if the hawks are in the picture for the E8 aq...

Fisher-It Won't Be Long now This is still the team that took it to Mount Union for 3 quarters and was only 12 points from going to the Stagg Bowl...if they don't make the NCAA's it should be one of the biggest disappointments in a long time.

Norwich-I've Just Seen a Face and that face was the face of Pierre Garcon

Springfield-If I Fell Springfield is having a down year will Chris Sharpe be able to pick them up for the next two games

Utica-All You Need is Love nuff said...someone show the Pioneers a little love

I'd give you plus k, but it looks like you are trying to hold steady at
-99...the thought counts...right?

[superman57]

you can give me -k

[SJFF82]

It wasnt me, whoever smited me, apparently smited you as well...