FB: Empire 8

[Frank Rossi]

all this talk of numbers and formulas, etc.. is exactly what the proponents of the non-play-off BCS rely upon in part to support their position that even if they go to a play-off format, there is going to be extreme critical analysis of how the play-off teams are determined and constant grieving by teams who are on the outside looking in come Nov-Dec...look at all this microscopic analysis going on here...AND WE HAVE a play-off...not saying I agree, but......

I don't think this is microscopic.  The problem here is that it is not as transparent as the QoWI was.  We, as players, coaches, family, friends and fans should have some ability to understand who has the best chance to make the playoffs and what scenarios we should root for/against.  Sure, "win all your games."  However, all the SOS is doing is giving a bunch of numbers that, as I think we're seeing, don't carry much relevance right now.  Maybe the better idea was to strip .1 off for each loss a team has in-region after using a 2/3 and 1/3 BCS-like application.  Regardless, the problem that exists is that the first iteration of these numbers is showing us some weird situations -- how relevant can these numbers be if Endicott, Norwich and Utica are toward the top end?  At least the QoWI penalized a team for a loss so that we could compare apples to apples better than these numbers.

[Pat Coleman]

Regional winning percentage also punishes teams for losing, though.

[Frank Rossi]

Regional winning percentage also punishes teams for losing, though.

Understood, but if we get to this criterion, then most likely winning percentage was equal or close enough to merit further review.

[Pat Coleman]

Just not sure why it needed to be taken into account twice, that's all. And certainly not if your goal was to measure the strength of the schedule, which must have been the NCAA's intent since it replaced the previous SOS measurement and was actually somehow called "Strength of Schedule Index."

[Knightstalker]

Does anyone think this is an improvement over the QOWI previously used or do you feel this is an improvement?  Is this still going to be calculated for regional opponents or for all opponents.  Are they going to use the same calculations in Basketball and other sports?

[Frank Rossi]

Just not sure why it needed to be taken into account twice, that's all. And certainly not if your goal was to measure the strength of the schedule, which must have been the NCAA's intent since it replaced the previous SOS measurement and was actually somehow called "Strength of Schedule Index."

The initial reason why is because the numbers as they stand right now give me no confidence that the SOS Index is representative of reality.  Look at the East Region alone.  Endicott has a strong schedule than Rochester, Union, Hobart, RPI, etc.?!  Utica and Hartwick had tougher schedules than SJF and Ithaca and Cortland?  This makes me feel that the Committee, should they be detached from the real stories in each region of team strength/weakness, might use an index that has no representation of reality to make decisions.  This is extremely crucial this year since there will be TEN at-large bids (3 Pool B and 7 Pool C) -- making the criteria for selection even more important than the last couple years.

[Pat Coleman]

That's one less at-large bid than last year. Not sure why that's worth shouting.

Endicott's schedule is irrelevant to the selection process, too. Winning percentage is still part of the selection process, after all, and Endicott doesn't qualify.

Might Hartwick and Utica have tougher schedules -- in the games played so far, remember -- than St. John Fisher and Ithaca? It's always possible. Hartwick has played both St. John Fisher and Ithaca, after all, and St. John Fisher and Ithaca have only played one of those teams.

Remember we have four weeks left.

[Frank Rossi]

Then let's look at a current example.  Cortland, at 4-1 in the East, is in 49th place in the East.  Plymouth State, at 6-0 in the East, is in 15th place in the East.  Let's compare schedules so far:

Cortland
---------
(1-6) Sep. 8  7:00 PM  Morrisville State  W, 71-7     
(3-3) Sep. 15  1:00 PM  at Brockport State •  L, 28-14     
(2-4) Sep. 22  1:00 PM  Buffalo State * •  W, 30-27     
(2-4) Sep. 29  1:00 PM  at William Paterson * •  W, 42-0     
(2-4) Oct. 6  1:00 PM  at Kean * •  W, 35-14     
(3-3) Oct. 13  1:00 PM  Western Connecticut * •  W, 27-26   

Plymouth State
----------------
(2-5) Sep. 8  1:30 PM  Mount Ida •  W, 41-30     
(5-1) Sep. 15  1:30 PM  Coast Guard •  W, 38-19     
(4-3) Sep. 22  12:00 PM  at Mass-Dartmouth * •  W, 35-28     
(2-5) Sep. 29  1:00 PM  at Western New England * •  W, 49-29     
(1-5) Oct. 6  1:30 PM  Endicott * •  W, 28-17     
(4-2) Oct. 13  1:00 PM  Nichols * •  W, 30-0 

So, thus far, Plymouth State is playing a schedule that ranks it 34 spots higher than Cortland.  OK, sure.  Whatever you suggest.  And, if these two teams were to be eliminated from Pool A contention, you're telling me that you're comfortable that the Committee would be using these numbers to compare Cortland and Plymouth State right now?  Somehow, the OOWP needs to get factored in, as Plymouth State's is an average .506 while Cortland State's is a very high .578.  Yet, the Manual suggests the OOWP in this scenario would be ignored since no "tie" exists.

[BoSox0322]

What are the big match ups this weekend.

[Frank Rossi]

What are the big match ups this weekend.

Here's all I could find in the East Region that's somewhat intriguing:

12:00 PM Plymouth State      at    Curry          
1:00 PM Wesley              at    Brockport State          
1:00 PM Montclair State     at    Cortland State
1:00 PM St. Lawrence        at    Hobart          
1:00 PM St. John Fisher     at    Springfield
2:00 PM Rowan               at    Kean             
2:00 PM Western Connecticut at    New Jersey             

[Saxon73]

Frank,  All things considered, is Curry ready to step up?

[pg04]

AU put some nasty hits on Utica QB Greg Pinelli and, to his credit, after sitting out a play or two, he was back out there asking for more. Saw him after the game. Tough kid. Competitor. While he didn't do much damage with his arm, he scrambled for positive yardage. Utica did a nice job of denying Vinson Hendrix up the gut and has a couple of solid defensive linemen. Hendrix was denied the century mark for the first time this season. Nevertheless, Pep expects the Bombers will roll.

In an attempt to get some life on the boards, Pep offers these NYS prognostications for Saterday:

Ithaca 30, Utica 6. Bombers are building momentum on their mission to salvage the season. Meanwhile, the Pioneers are denied again in their quest for some tillable soil where they might establish a settlement.

Hamilton 6, Colby 3. The Continentals put together a rare two-game win streak, doubling up a cold Colby team. But they do it without the offensive outburst of last week's 23 points, only their third double figure scoring in the past three years.

Alfred 31, Husson 13. A rugged Eagle defense holds the Saxons below their scoring average but AU's seniors finish with an unbeaten record at home for 2007.

Brockport 38, Morrisville 20. The Green and Gold Eagles fly over the much greener Mustangs of Moo'ville.

Montclair State 28, Cortland 24. They'll be painting the town red. The Red Hawks are for real in this matchup with the Red Dragons. How do you like them apples?

Hobart 33, St. Lawrence 14. Hobart's offense is putting up big numbers. The Saints aren't. But watch for the North Country squad to keep it close into the third quarter.

Rensselaer 37, Merchant Marine 12. The Engineers are rolling along and have no problem sinking the Mariners from Kings Point.

Rochester 31, WPI 28. The home field makes the difference as the Yellowjackets sting Worcester.

Springfield 26, St. John Fisher 24. In Pep's upset special, The Pride miss two extra points but get four Sharpe TD runs to edge the Cardinals in only their second game at Benedum this season. There's no place like home, there's no place like home.

Hartwick 49, Mount Ida 28. The Hawks are still flying high...Ida know..are there are any mountains in Newton, MASS?

Newport News 27, SUNY Maritime 6. The only good news for SUNY Maritime is that their last two opponents are Becker and Gallaudet.

Brockport plays Wesley this week.........

[Frank Rossi]

Frank,  All things considered, is Curry ready to step up?

That's like asking me if better pitching would have made Tampa Bay a better team this season.   Ummmm...

[Saxon73]

PG04,  Bkp't v Wesley should be very interestig  Beats the crap out of AU v Husson, I guess    Don't remember how long ago but I think Wesley spanked AU.  Of course Pep will know.

[Saxon73]

Frank,  All things considered, is Curry ready to step up?

That's like asking me if better pitching would have made Tampa Bay a better team this season.   Ummmm...

Thanks Frank, but I don't have any idead what you are talking about.  Not a big BB fan