FB: Empire 8

[sjfcards]

I agree that Fisher has a lot of work left to do to make any of this talk mean anything, however, so does AU. Alfred/Ithaca is getting to be a bigger and bigger game. If AU loses to IC, and then loses to Fisher I would assume they are all but out of the playoff picture. IC has been playing much better recently, so it should be interesting.

Also, Hartwick has to beat a SC team that will have nothing to lose, and will be playing spoiler. SC looks worse and worse every week, but with that quirky offense, they could still jump up and bite the Hawks. I am not saying they will. I think Hartwick will take care of SC actually. I guess what I am trying to say is that there is a lot of Football left to be played.

I do think that the E8 can get three teams in this year. The NJAC will probably only get one team in because at best, the 2nd place team will have 2 losses. I think the LL is a one bid league if, as someone said earlier, RPI wins the league. (hobart and Union both already have 2 losses). The E8 getting three bids of course is all based on Hartwick getting the AQ, and Fisher and AU having one loss. It is just really tough to get in with that 2nd loss.

[not so rowdy bomber]

SPRINGFIELD!  ... DOH!


WHAT DID YOU DO?!  YOU WERE WINNING! ... YOU WERE SUPPOSED TO BEAT FISHER!!!!

so much for the 5 way tie... gah, (*^*&%?ÔÁÎ... stupid Pride.



... go bombers

[boobyhasgameyo]

They were winning 7-3 in the first quarter man, wasn't like they were up 2 scores with a minute to go in the 4th.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I would be very shocked to see an Eastern Conference get 3 teams in, but I guess it's possible. 

This is how I see the 8 teams in the east, if Hartwick somehow won the AQ and Fisher had beat Alfred (this is not in any seeding order)..

NEFC Champion (Curry)
NJAC Champion (TCNJ/Cortland)
E8 Champion (Alfred/Fisher/Hartwick)
LL Champion (Union/RPI/U of R)
MAC Champion(Albright/Widener/Del Val)
Out of Region Team (Muhlenberg --- If so, in this scenario might end up as 1 seed)
Pool C team (RPI/Fisher/Cortland/Alfred/TCNJ/Hartwick)
Pool C Team (Same as above)

I may be missing something but you said this scenario was under the premise Hartwick gets the AQ, then you have them in the Pool C possibles....They wouldn't have to worry about it.  So their would be 5 teams fighting for those 2 spots.  And is this out of region team coming to the east something that will always happen? or could we get 3 pool C spots from the east?  Also if Cortland loses to New Jersey this weekend and doesn't get the AQ I doubt they will make the playoffs with those 2 L's (one of which is to Brockport) and the very real possibility they could lose to Rowan and then Ithaca at the end of the year.  I really hope New Jersey can wrap up the NJAC this year, that would be huge. 

[AUKaz00]

Let's simplify the OWP logic for a potential tie-breaker for E8 champ.  The current numbers do not include the winning percentages of the teams which have yet to be played.  For Alfred, that is Hobart, Ithaca and Fisher - 3 teams with winning records which means regardless of how Alfred fairs against those teams, their OWP will rise.

In a scenario where Alfred, Fisher and Hartwick all finish with 1 conference loss, the results of the E8 will be a complete wash for all 3 teams with the exception that currently Hartwick gains a game in OWP on Alfred and Fisher because of their loss to WNE while Alfred and Fisher have not lost OOC (they lose that edge in WNE's winning percentage, but to simplify the math make it +1 Wick, -1 AU and Fisher).

Since conference records are a wash for all three teams, the difference in OWP for all three will be determined by the winning percentages of their OOC competitors.  So, we only need to add up the records of each team's OOC opponents, subtract the result of their meeting with each other and add in the difference from the last paragraph.

The current results of that calculation are: Alfred's OOC: 14-12, Fisher's OOC: 9-15, Wick's OOC: 9-18.  Add in the difference from paragraph 2 and we're currently at Alfred: 14-13, Fisher: 9-16, Wick 10-18.  The only changes to these will be the results of the OOC teams in the last 3 weeks of the season.

Using the OWP for tie-breaking a Pool C bid would require adding the E8 records in to compare to other conferences.  So, from this analysis it would seem that Alfred is currently in the driver's seat of the 3-way tie-breaker as well.

On Saxon Warriors and on Hartwick Hawks!

[pg04]

You have to remember the Opponents' opponents' winning percentage too.... So Curry, in this instance would help Hartwick.  I haven't done the calculations though, but just thought I'd throw that in. 

[AUKaz00]

You have to remember the Opponents' opponents' winning percentage too.... So Curry, in this instance would help Hartwick.  I haven't done the calculations though, but just thought I'd throw that in. 

If OOWP is calculated in the SoS, you're right.  From everything that I've read it seems like the OOWP is a tie-breaker for the OWP tie-breaker.  I don't think this is right, but if it is used the way it is currently being displayed then we only need to calculate OWP and then OOWP in case of an OWP tie.

[Frank Rossi]

You have to remember the Opponents' opponents' winning percentage too.... So Curry, in this instance would help Hartwick.  I haven't done the calculations though, but just thought I'd throw that in. 

If OOWP is calculated in the SoS, you're right.  From everything that I've read it seems like the OOWP is a tie-breaker for the OWP tie-breaker.  I don't think this is right, but if it is used the way it is currently being displayed then we only need to calculate OWP and then OOWP in case of an OWP tie.

Based on the language in the NCAA Playoff Manual, it appears that OOWP is nothing but a tiebreaker.  I agree it's odd, but it's pretty much in black and white.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I've gone crosseyed

[Tags]

PG-

When are you going to concede that Edwards is way better than your boy Losman?

[Tags]

RE: E8 Bids

Let's not forget the fact that there is a very real possibility Alfred comes into Growney on a two game losing streak.
@ Hobart & @ Ithaca ... I personally do not think they'll get through that undefeated.

[AUKaz00]

RE: E8 Bids

Let's not forget the fact that there is a very real possibility Alfred comes into Growney on a two game losing streak.
@ Hobart & @ Ithaca ... I personally do not think they'll get through that undefeated.

Playing pinochle last night with Mrs. Kaz00, Pep and KazooTwo, Pep made the pronouncement that there is a very real chance that Alfred could finish the regular season 7-3.  It made me want to vomit, but only because he was dead right.  Hobart and Alfred look eerily even for Saterday's matchup.  If Alfred fails to win either of these next two games than they I believe they must win at Growney since both Hobart and Ithaca could finish with 2 losses and then hold a Pool C "tie-breaker" over a 2-loss Alfred team.  It's basically a double elimination playoff tournament for Alfred the rest of the way.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I really don't think Hartwick will get by Springfield personally....Don't think the Hartwick coaches have figured out how to stop that whole option thing.  


Since Springfield joined the E8

2004

Springfield  42
Hartwick  14


2005

Springfield  59
Hartwick  35


2006

Springfield  44
Hartwick  20



So Hartwick hasn't held Springfield below 40 yet.  I think Springfield will find a way to win and effectively end Hartwick's chances.  

[boobyhasgameyo]

May I take this post #801 to celebrate my previous post #800.  Thank you Division 3 football!!


+k to anybody currently kicking it on the boards with me. 

[pg04]

PG-

When are you going to concede that Edwards is way better than your boy Losman?

I never said anything about anyone way better than anyone else.  I just think he should have gotten more of   a shake this season than 2 games.