FB: Empire 8

[Knightstalker]

We all tend to get a little regioncentric or conferencentric when it comes to Pool C bids.  The reality is the majority of conference runnerups get lumped into the pool and the committee uses the regional selection criteria applied to a national stage and select the Pool C teams.  The Pool B schools may be taking a C this season, that it a really tough Pool with at least 4 playoff caliber teams.

The E8 could get a pool C bid.
The LL could get a pool C bid.
The NJAC has an outside shot at a pool C bid.  (cortland)
The MAC could get a pool C bid.
The East may not get a pool C bid at all.

[JQV]

The E8 could get a pool C bid.
The LL could get a pool C bid.
The NJAC has an outside shot at a pool C bid.  (cortland)
The MAC could get a pool C bid.
The East may not get a pool C bid at all.

I'll restate what I posted a few weeks ago.  I predict a two-loss E8 team does not get a Pool C.  In fact, with Alfred's loss to Hobart I now think the chance of an E8 Pool C is remote at best.  That is not based on any reference to the Rossi Ratings (Frank, if you think I am wrong mathematically, please feel free to chime in), just a gut instinct.

The overall improved play in the E8 has improved the entertainment value of the league but also probably cost it a chance at two bids.  If the league stays this way for a few seasons (proving this season wasn't just a fluke), then I think a two-loss E8 team would get more respect on a national level.

[AUPepBand]

PEP, why did alfred kick the field goal early in the 3rd?

Everyone should know by now that Pep has the utmost of confidence in AU's coaching staff. At the time that AU took the 3 points, no one knew that the Saxons would have the ball for only 2:43 of the fourth quarter... or for 7:55 of the second half. Trailing 17-13, early in the third quarter, AU needed to come away with points.

Pep thinks the early strike (TD on second play from scrimmage) and early INT created an heir of overconfidence among the Saxons...and the onside kick deflated that confidence to a point of pure dejection. Hobart threw the playbook at the Saxons and AU, accustomed to blowing teams out even with some sloppy play, paid dearly for blown assignments.

AU arguably got its "wake-up call" and will get back to business. Don't count Pep's Saxons out. The Pep bandwagon is headed for Butterfield to take a shot at grounding those high-flying Bombers. Should be a good one.

Pep will be there....now who among the FDC will be there to introduce Pep to Lois? Is Pep invited to some FDC tailgating again? After last week, who knows, Pep may be tempted to imbibe.  

[redswarm81]

That is your problem....you want this to be a science when it isn't....go play with your blocks, just be careful of the square peg and the round hole

I've admitted all along that I don't understand feelings-based poll rankings.  I can understand thoughts, and you're right to implicate science--show me the data, and I can have faith in the results.

When the results are based on nothing more than "that's the way I feel," I can't place much confidence in those results.

[JQV]

When the results are based on nothing more than "that's the way I feel," I can't place much confidence in those results.

This is a legitimate point RS but that is what you are left with in college football because of the large number of teams and small number of games.  It is not really a problem shared by other college sports or pro sports.  If you try to get too deep into a fact based analysis you end up digging all the way down to x beat y who beat z, therefore x is better than z.

And we all know that is crap given this analysis from last season:

Bombers 2007 BCS Champs

ITHACA beat
Huntingdon who beat
Millsaps who beat
**Trinity (Texas) who beat
DePauw who beat
Hope who beat
Albion who beat
Butler who beat
Dayton who beat
Robert Morris who beat
Central Conn St who beat
Georgia Southern who beat
Western Carolina who beat
Eastern Kentucky who beat
Western Kentucky who beat
Southern Illinois who beat
Indiana who beat
Iowa who beat
Iowa St who beat
Missouri who beat
Mississippi who beat
Vanderbilt who beat
Georgia who beat
Auburn who beat
Florida

(In an effort to cite my sources, someone posted this on another board and one of my friends built backwards from Trinity to IC.  Obviously, since IC had losses last season, there are other East teams that can also claim a piece of the Gators.)

[AUKaz00]

Contrary to rumors, Pep did not take his life after Saterday's Debacle at Da Boz. Search for another chairman, barring impeachment, can be terminated. Pep's vehicle ran out of gas before generating enough fumes to asphyxiate the Pep.
Pep is now gased up and back on the Bandwagon with sights set on ButterField.

As KazooTwo likes to point out, you can always tell how well Pep is doing at cards by how much he's talking!  When he's losing he'll sit in his chair quiet as a church mouse, but give him one monster hand and he'll be chirping louder than a nightengale.  I suspect the same is true of Pep's psyche when it comes to his beloved Saxons.  I just hope for Pep's sake the team can shake of Saterday's performance and bring some life back to Pep's posting patterns.

[redswarm81]

When the results are based on nothing more than "that's the way I feel," I can't place much confidence in those results.

This is a legitimate point RS but that is what you are left with in college football because of the large number of teams and small number of games.  It is not really a problem shared by other college sports or pro sports.  If you try to get too deep into a fact based analysis you end up digging all the way down to x beat y who beat z, therefore x is better than z.

And we all know that [Bombers 2007 BCS Champs] is crap [, since IC had losses last season]

Come on, Vipe, be careful what you say.  Feelings are not ALL you're left with.

I've consistently pointed out that common opponent analysis is a legitimate form of evaluation, but it is not infallible.  Strength of schedule is also a legitimate measurement, but from where I sit, it's less valuable a measurement than common opponent analysis.  Number of wins/winning percentage is the best single statistic (in DIII especially), but even that has limitations, due to exactly the point you made: the large number of teams and small number of games.

Some people believe that reputation is a legitimate means for measuring relative team strength.  I don't hold that belief, but I think it explains Ithaca's consistently high preseason rankings.

I've never suggested that anyone ought to rely on a single statistic to evaluate teams for poll ranking, and especially not for playoff selection.  However, if there were to be a single statistic that was going to be used to the exclusion of all others, I don't see how you could use anything other than number of wins/winning percentage.

[BoSox0322]

In my opinion I agree that the Alfred convincing loss to Hobart really hurts the chance for a pool C bid coming from the E8... the only possible chance would be if Hartwick wins out and takes the AQ and Alfred loses out and SJF gets a pool C.  Thats the only possible way... right?

[redswarm81]

In my opinion I agree that the Alfred convincing loss to Hobart really hurts the chance for a pool C bid coming from the E8... the only possible chance would be if Hartwick wins out and takes the AQ and Alfred loses out and SJF gets a pool C.  Thats the only possible way... right?

Altor, over on the Pool C board, has posted a chart showing the 12 possible 1-loss Pool C candidates.  The key word is possible.  Many of those 12 possibilities include teams that will win their conference Pool A bids.

There are two weeks left, and a lot of fun, crazy stuff is going to happen.  That 12 will dwindle.  I'm still betting that a two loss E8 team (if there is one) gets a Pool C bid without too much trouble.

[JQV]

Come on, Vipe, be careful what you say.  Feelings are not ALL you're left with.

I didn't mean to insinuate that some amorphous feeling is the only standard in college football.  I just think it is more heavily relied on in college football than in any other sport because of the lack of games.

[Pat Coleman]

I understand, KS.  I don't know what instructions the Poobah gives his D3football.com poll voters regarding how to conduct their analyses of relative team strength.

None whatsoever. We simply supply the information and leave it to the voters to decide how much to weigh record, strength of schedule, head to head, location of game, etc.

People wondering about the relative rankings of Muhlenberg/TCNJ should keep in mind that the poll is a measurement of where we think teams are today, not on Aug. 31.

[SJFF82]

That is your problem....you want this to be a science when it isn't....go play with your blocks, just be careful of the square peg and the round hole

I've admitted all along that I don't understand feelings-based poll rankings.  I can understand thoughts, and you're right to implicate science--show me the data, and I can have faith in the results.

When the results are based on nothing more than "that's the way I feel," I can't place much confidence in those results.

That is why it is called the "East Region Fan Poll", not the "East Region Math Problem Poll"

Besides, who said that the goal of the poll was to instill "confidence" in anything.  Football games are won on the field, not in polls.  The results on the field are what (should) generate a certain level of "confidence" in us fans about the respective teams.  Let the polls be what they are...opinions that are based largely in part by subjective data.

Otherwise, maybe you have the end-all be-all formula worked out that would absolutely guarantee the proper weekly rankings and consequently the proper paly-off participants....even better, maybe the games could be played on your chalk-board instead of on the field...

[Jonny Utah]

Muhlenberg did beat TCNJ but I feel that TCNJ's 7-1 is more impressive than Muhlenbergs 8-0.

Feelings, nothing more than feelings, . . .

I understand, KS.  I don't know what instructions the Poobah gives his D3football.com poll voters regarding how to conduct their analyses of relative team strength.

If you were writing the D3football.com Poll Voters' Manual, what would you write in the section where you encourage poll voters to follow Obi-Wan's advice and "trust your feelings?"

I'm not trying to be a wiseguy, either.  I'm honestly curious to know how anyone draws the line where feelings become more valuable than thoughts.  I recognize that I'm limited, since I can't put enough faith in what I think might happen, in order to vote contrary to what I know did happen.

Muhlenberg is undefeated.
TCNJ has only one loss--to Muhlenberg.

I can't feel good about ranking TCNJ above Muhlenberg.

I feel and think that I could probably not breathe on the moon, even though Ive never been there.

[FisherAlum05]

This is the most ridiculous argument I've ever seen on these boards.  Please stop I'm sick of reading about it.  People can vote on the rankings anyway they please.  If it were strictly based on facts and data, then they would use a computer to determine the results.  Let it go.  In a few weeks, everybody will know who the best team in the East really is.   Until then, lets just enjoy the parity and excitement in our region. 

[FisherAlum05]

We all tend to get a little regioncentric or conferencentric when it comes to Pool C bids.  The reality is the majority of conference runnerups get lumped into the pool and the committee uses the regional selection criteria applied to a national stage and select the Pool C teams.  The Pool B schools may be taking a C this season, that it a really tough Pool with at least 4 playoff caliber teams.

The E8 could get a pool C bid.
The LL could get a pool C bid.
The NJAC has an outside shot at a pool C bid.  (cortland)
The MAC could get a pool C bid.
The East may not get a pool C bid at all.

The E8 and the LL could get pool C bids.
No way Cortland or anybody from the NJAC gets a pool C.
No way the MAC gets a pool C.
The East will definately get a pool C from somewhere.