FB: Empire 8

[Bombers798891]

Some of you are taking what i'm saying way too far to heart. This is how I see the season playing out. I'm trying to give you as detailed a look at the season as I possibly can, ofcourse I'm going to say some things that are bold......a lot of "bold" things happen over the course of a season. I'm actually kind of shocked that there's so many people who have a problem with what I said. I mean, they were bold perhaps and my statements were not sugar coated, but the actual predictions themselves I dont believe are outlandish at all given the teams in question.

Max and Johnny, I guess my only response to what you said is to please go look at Alfreds schedule and name me 3 games you think they lose and why. I have my 4 for Ithaca at that point (Salisbury, Fisher, Springfield, Utica). I'm taking a team that won the E8 outright and returns 3/4ths of their starters over anyone on that sched besides MAYBE Salisbury, who was quite good last year. I don't see why Alfred shouldnt be the favorite in every other matchup going into it at this point in the preseason. They return the vast majority of their D and all but 1 skill guy on O. There's holes, everyone has holes, but looking at every team today Alfred is the logical presumptive favorite.

In response to Knightstalker, I didn't ignore anyone. If AU goes unbeaten (and you all have to keep in mind that when I predict the landscape it's ALL based off of AU running the table) then any unbeaten NJAC team probably wont be our #1 due to the SOS issues of having severely limited OOC competition. In terms of the MAC as Gordon alluded to Del Val loses a lot and I don't see anyone else from the MAC running the table. Same with the LL.

I understand it's hard to make such detailed predictions, but it's not like every year is a crapshoot as some of you make it out to be. Though my predictions are bold, I believe my logic to be sound. I guess a couple of you disagree, that's fine, i'd personally love to see your predictions. I think everyone should write some sort of prediction post at some point....imagine the discussion it would generate! Anyways, +k to all involved in this thread for reviving the E8 topic during a dead period!

I refuse to pick Utica to win any game against the Bombers (or the rest of the conference) until they actually do. The Pioneers have beaten one team that isn't Norwich in the last five years, and a mediocre Ithaca team whipped them last year. I don't care that it's in Utica. Until they actually win one, I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt.

The interesting thing with Salisbury is that the Bombers tend to play option teams very well. They've beaten Springfield six of the last seven times they've played. The strength of this defense is their linebackers, and both their corners are physical and can help in run support. Admittedly. I don't know much about the Gulls, but their 7-3 record had a lot of bad teams propping it up. Husson, Frostburg, Newport News, Union, so it's not like they ran roughshod through great teams.

Triple option teams are so feast or famine, but I think IC's defense will be too good to lose to both Springfield and Salisbury. I think they win one of those two, Utica, Hartwick, Frostburg, and Brockport. Union's an iffy game, but I don't like IC on the road there.

Bombers better figure out how to score this year though or it could get ugly, fast. That schedule is a flat-out debacle.

[Bombers798891]

Max and Johnny, I guess my only response to what you said is to please go look at Alfreds schedule and name me 3 games you think they lose and why.

Alfred lost to RPI and Rochester last year.  That means that they could have lost to every team they played last year.

That doesn not mean I think Alfred should have gone 0-10, nor does it mean that they they will go 10-0 or 0-10 next year.  Sure if you look at it game by game, you can say they might be favored to win every one of those games.  But that doesn't usually happen, in fact it rarely happens, especially if you are Alfred, or 235 of the other d3 football programs out there, many of whom did not lose to teams with losing records last year.

So no, your logic isn't really that sound.  If Alfred can't beat the worst two teams on their schedule last year, what makes you think they can beat everyone on their schedule next year?  

Well put. We're dealing with 18-21 year old kids here. They're unpredictable at best, and at the D-III level, you're not (usually I hope) in a "football, football, football" mode all the time. Unless you're bringing back an overwhelming talent base, it strikes me as foolish to think a team will go unbeaten. Almost everyone has several games that are locks, several that are probably losses, and then a bunch of that, even if you're the favorite or the underdog, can go either way if you play poorly or well enough.

Aflred doesn't strike me as a team that's overwhelmingly talented compared to the rest of the league. Favorite? Maybe. But I'd take the field before I take any team in the E8. I could see Alfred, Fisher, Springfield or Salisbury winning it

[AUPepBand]

Hoping here that a post from Pep doesn't break the banter but before battles begin, believing boosters boast of being beyond being beaten.

That said, Pep predicts (and here we go with more Alfred predictions....what about the rest of the E8?):

Sept. 10--RPI....are Engineers, after hiring big-time coaches, headed for big-time? AU still smacking from 27-24 loss at AcronymStadium in 2010, not to mention the 34-31 defeat in the last game played on the frozen '86 Field in '08. Could be another struggle for AU as Saxons adjust to new personnel up front on offense. AU defense will hold its own.... AU 21, RPI 17.

Sept. 17--ST. LAWRENCE...Saxons always struggle up North, but usually roll at Merrill. But Saints are improved with Raymond at the helm. AU 28, SLU 14.

Sept. 24--SPRINGFIELD...Saxon LBs should get the job done at Merrill and the AU offense should begin to get into sync. AU 37, Springfield 20.

Oct. 1--at St. John Fisher...Saxons have beaten Cardinals three straight. Last time at Growney, O'Brien's punt return theft returned for a TD and Captain Kilcarr driving Saxons into range of PK Eric Rockwood for game-winning FG was just enough. Will Secky go 4-0 against Fisher? I wish. Fisher 33, Alfred 31.

Oct. 8--HARTWICK...AU takes its anger out on the Hawks. AU 42, Hartwick 17.

Oct. 15--SALISBURY...Saxons faced same style offense a few weeks ago. They've seen it before and contained it. But, each has its own wrinkles. This will be a great game.  AU 37, Salisbury 31.

Oct. 22--at Frostburg State...After an easy win in 2010, AU comes out flat in western Maryland, but holds on for a win. AU 24, Frostburg 19.

Oct. 29--at Rochester...Yellowjackets reinvented themselves mid-season last year. Will be interesting to see whether they continue their exemplary play in 2011. AU avenges last year's defeat. AU 31, UR 16.

Nov. 5--at Ithaca...in 1982 AU defeated Ithaca 20-7 on South Hill. Hasn't happened since. That occurred a season after AU's first appearance in the NCAAs after a perfect 10-0 campaign in 1981. So, the last time AU traveled to South Hill the year after an NCAA appearance, the Saxons won. If it doesn't rain again before Nov. 5, will they water the field? AU 23, Ithaca 17.

Nov. 12--UTICA...by virtue of what the other seven teams have done to each other, with just one conference loss, AU could lock up the AQ with a win at home against a vastly improved Pioneer squad. It's Saxon Senior Day. AU 42, Utica 27.

These predictions are based on 2010 results, which, included the 7 points in each game that was contributed by the late Carl T. "Sam" Moses, faithful Saxon football follower since 1937. Subtract Holy Moses' 7 points from the games above, and the Saxons finish with a 5-5 record. What a difference having Holy Moses on the sidelines makes....

On Saxon Warriors!

[maxpower]

So just to be clear we have:

AUSaxons: Predicts AU will go 10-0.

Pep: predicts AU will go 9-1.

Kazoo: Predicts AU will go 8-2, with 7-3 being "eminently possible."

Can we get a couple more Saxon supporters on here, maybe we can have one prediction for every possible record!

[drt]

So if AU does go 10-0 or 9-1, or even 8-2, and wins the conference, could another E8 team at, say 9-1 or 8-2, get a Pool C bid?

[Jonny Utah]

So if AU does go 10-0 or 9-1, or even 8-2, and wins the conference, could another E8 team at, say 9-1 or 8-2, get a Pool C bid?

Yes.  2 teams from the E8 have made the playoffs before.  And there was one year where 3 made it.

[AUSaxons]

Bombers, to respond to your post I agree that Utica is, at BEST an unproven commodity. However, I do think they proved something last year. They put a hurting on SLU and RPI, 2 decent teams, and also beat an ok Wilkes team. I'm not saying that they deserve to be considered a contender based on that record, but last year they sort of took that step out of the cellar and I think it may be the year they take out 1, maybe even 2 of the 5 teams who are considered to be more in the running generally. They did give Fisher a scare last year and nearly won their game against Springfield. They return nearly everything from a pretty decent offense, I think they might take another step this year. Blaise seems to know what he's doing.

I had not realized the depth of IC's success against the triple option. That success being there, perhaps I will change my prediction to have them beating 1 of the 2 option teams. It is worth pointing out that Salisbury, while their wins may not be impressive, has 3 close losses to NCAA tournament caliber teams. They were within 1 score of beating Wesley. I think that says they are a legitimately talented team who is very capable of winning the E8.

And Utes, not to nitpick, but Rochester and RPI were not the 2 worst teams on the schedule last season. The 2 worst teams on the schedule last year were Frostburg and, honestly, SUNY Maritime. Despite their 10-1 record, I haven't seen a team be so genuinely uncompetitive in a long time as when I saw them play Alfred. I think they go winless in any other major east region conference (w/ the exception of West Conn in the NJAC, who they beat last year). Anyways, i'm loving the predictions guys! Can we get some Fisher/IC people in on this? Or any of the other E8 squads?

[Frank Rossi]

So if AU does go 10-0 or 9-1, or even 8-2, and wins the conference, could another E8 team at, say 9-1 or 8-2, get a Pool C bid?

Yes.  2 teams from the E8 have made the playoffs before.  And there was one year where 3 made it.

However, it's been four years since a team with two losses has won a Pool C bid in the East -- there are just too many teams now for there to be much hope at Pool C with two losses (and still the same number of bids to go around).  You lose two games in this region, and you're toast unless you win your conference's Pool A bid.

[Jonny Utah]

So if AU does go 10-0 or 9-1, or even 8-2, and wins the conference, could another E8 team at, say 9-1 or 8-2, get a Pool C bid?

Yes.  2 teams from the E8 have made the playoffs before.  And there was one year where 3 made it.

However, it's been four years since a team with two losses has won a Pool C bid in the East -- there are just too many teams now for there to be much hope at Pool C with two losses (and still the same number of bids to go around).  You lose two games in this region, and you're toast unless you win your conference's Pool A bid.

That is true.

[AUKaz00]

Aflred doesn't strike me as a team that's overwhelmingly talented compared to the rest of the league. Favorite? Maybe. But I'd take the field before I take any team in the E8. I could see Alfred, Fisher, Springfield or Salisbury winning it

I agree with this statement, but I wonder what the effect of having two triple-option teams in the league will mean for Springfield's and Salisbury's fortunes.  Will the second week of preparation make it easier to defend for E8 teams as the season progresses?  As I found out last year while looking at Fisher's performance against the triple-option in recent years, the Cardinals are markedly better the second time they face it.  If that becomes a pattern across the league, then it would certainly reduce the potential for either of the triple-option teams from taking the AQ.  Should be interesting to see. Oh, and when do we set an O/U for time of game on 10/8?

[dewcrew88]

Some of you are taking what i'm saying way too far to heart. This is how I see the season playing out. I'm trying to give you as detailed a look at the season as I possibly can, ofcourse I'm going to say some things that are bold......a lot of "bold" things happen over the course of a season. I'm actually kind of shocked that there's so many people who have a problem with what I said. I mean, they were bold perhaps and my statements were not sugar coated, but the actual predictions themselves I dont believe are outlandish at all given the teams in question.

Max and Johnny, I guess my only response to what you said is to please go look at Alfreds schedule and name me 3 games you think they lose and why. I have my 4 for Ithaca at that point (Salisbury, Fisher, Springfield, Utica). I'm taking a team that won the E8 outright and returns 3/4ths of their starters over anyone on that sched besides MAYBE Salisbury, who was quite good last year. I don't see why Alfred shouldnt be the favorite in every other matchup going into it at this point in the preseason. They return the vast majority of their D and all but 1 skill guy on O. There's holes, everyone has holes, but looking at every team today Alfred is the logical presumptive favorite.

In response to Knightstalker, I didn't ignore anyone. If AU goes unbeaten (and you all have to keep in mind that when I predict the landscape it's ALL based off of AU running the table) then any unbeaten NJAC team probably wont be our #1 due to the SOS issues of having severely limited OOC competition. In terms of the MAC as Gordon alluded to Del Val loses a lot and I don't see anyone else from the MAC running the table. Same with the LL.

I understand it's hard to make such detailed predictions, but it's not like every year is a crapshoot as some of you make it out to be. Though my predictions are bold, I believe my logic to be sound. I guess a couple of you disagree, that's fine, i'd personally love to see your predictions. I think everyone should write some sort of prediction post at some point....imagine the discussion it would generate! Anyways, +k to all involved in this thread for reviving the E8 topic during a dead period!

I refuse to pick Utica to win any game against the Bombers (or the rest of the conference) until they actually do. The Pioneers have beaten one team that isn't Norwich in the last five years, and a mediocre Ithaca team whipped them last year. I don't care that it's in Utica. Until they actually win one, I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt.

The interesting thing with Salisbury is that the Bombers tend to play option teams very well. They've beaten Springfield six of the last seven times they've played. The strength of this defense is their linebackers, and both their corners are physical and can help in run support. Admittedly. I don't know much about the Gulls, but their 7-3 record had a lot of bad teams propping it up. Husson, Frostburg, Newport News, Union, so it's not like they ran roughshod through great teams.

Triple option teams are so feast or famine, but I think IC's defense will be too good to lose to both Springfield and Salisbury. I think they win one of those two, Utica, Hartwick, Frostburg, and Brockport. Union's an iffy game, but I don't like IC on the road there.

Bombers better figure out how to score this year though or it could get ugly, fast. That schedule is a flat-out debacle.

Re: IC vs. UC... that's exactly it. Without looking, UC has only been within 10 points 3 times in a decade. Got to get over that hump.

[dlippiel]

It is worth pointing out that Salisbury, while their wins may not be impressive, has 3 close losses to NCAA tournament caliber teams. They were within 1 score of beating Wesley. I think that says they are a legitimately talented team who is very capable of winning the E8.

Very true and no one here should overlook the gulls at all. To dlip, triple option or not, this gulls team has a legit shot to win the E8 without question. This is a very good program joining the E8.

[fisheralum91]

Dewcrew- good to see you on!
Had a nice conversation with Blaise a cpl weeks ago.
He is really excited about the team, and we joked about me having to root for UC every game minus the Fisher one!

[Jonny Utah]

Here is some random Ithaca news

http://bombers.ithaca.edu/news/2011/6/13/GEN_0613112833.aspx

[Bombers798891]

Bombers, to respond to your post I agree that Utica is, at BEST an unproven commodity. However, I do think they proved something last year. They put a hurting on SLU and RPI, 2 decent teams, and also beat an ok Wilkes team.

I had not realized the depth of IC's success against the triple option. That success being there, perhaps I will change my prediction to have them beating 1 of the 2 option teams. It is worth pointing out that Salisbury, while their wins may not be impressive, has 3 close losses to NCAA tournament caliber teams. They were within 1 score of beating Wesley. I think that says they are a legitimately talented team who is very capable of winning the E8.

RPI was 6-4 by the skin of their teeth. Four of their six wins came by three points or less. They were outscored by 47 points

Putting a hurting on St. Lawrence is hardly a noteworthy achievement. They were a terrible offensive team (16.1 PPG) and even if we're generous and take out the Mount Union game, the were outscored by 37 points.

In short, these were teams just not of the caliber of Ithaca (who blitzed St. Lawrence with four key contributors suspended), to say nothing of Fisher, Salisbury, and Alfred.

I'm not trying to pick on the Pioneers. Blaise is a great guy and I want them to do well. I think Utica is getting there. But I've got my standards (if you want to call them that) and I give the Bombers the same treatment when looking at them playing Fisher.

The thing with IC and the option is that over the years, the Bombers' biggest weakness has been the pass rush, and their biggest strength the linebackers. I can't think of the last Bomber team where the best defensive player wasn't a LB. They always have good linebackers and that helps them play the option better. (It also doesn't hurt that the Bombers ran the option for years when Welch was an assistant.)