FB: Empire 8

[pumkinattack]

Comparative scores never work  Not a point to debate as everyone's been through this, but keep in mind that if you play that game Hobart's 50 points better than Alfred right now. 

All credit to SLU for playing a conservative bend don't break game.  That's what got them 3-4 LL wins last year rather than any particular outstanding performance (Bart had 5 turnovers last year and lost on a last minute score for example).  The real explanation is that Hobart played terribly on O, by far worst performance to date.  Strang threw a pass I've never seen him throw.  They had 200 yards in the first half but 3 turnovers, burned 2 TO's in the 1st quarter bc of confusion on playcalling and Junior Woodard had two fumbles, one giving SLU the ball around the 15.  Hell, even Steve Webb punted once.  Hobart's looked very impressive on a team wide level this year.  They haven't gotten a good game out of Webb or Jr Woodard at all this year and haven't had any threat of losing a game.  Last year's team was not without talent, but had big holes at QB and the front 4 getting pressure (the DE's were quick, but undersized when you have average sized DT's - call in 260 - 290).  This year, the LL rookie of the year should be our FR DE Coleman and Strang is proving (despite a pretty underwhelming day yesterday) that he's the best QB Hobart's had since Strom in 07 (love Doyle and his heart can't be matched, playing in two playoff games in 08 with a throwing arm injury).  I'm not saying they're going into Ohio and smacking down Mt Union, but if you watch a game of theirs and look at the personnel (not that a non Bart fan would, but just saying), I do think they have to be in the discussion with Salisbury, an undefeated NJAC team and undefeated MAC team as equals or better (in speculative terms since they don't play during the reg season). 

[sjfcards]

Points allowed by Fisher's defense this year:

7 against Buff State
3 against U of R
56 against Hobart
3 against Alfred

I don't think I'll ever understand how the defense can look so dominant one week and so terrible another.

Our offense still sucks but a nice win nevertheless.

Well, maybe this brings back the idea that Hobart is better than we're assuming....

I think that we can not overlook the fact that Hobart had back to back bye weeks to prepare for Fisher as well. I think that performance by Fisher was a combination of Hobart being better than we thought, Fisher not playing well, and Hobart being very well prepared with a strong gameplan on both sides of the ball. I was hoping going into this weekend that the Hobart game was a fluke, and that they would show well against AU. It was nice to see that for this week anyway I was correct.

It kind of reminds me of AU losing unexpected games to out of conference teams last year. In the end it really did not matter since they were the best team in the conference at the end of the season. Sure it hurt their seeding, and brought MUC into the region, but they still were able to make their playoff run.

[sjfcards]

Fisher Ithaca week looks like a much more interesting game than I thought we would see about 48 hours ago. Ithaca has been solid, and Fisher may have saved their season yesterday. Another fun week ahead.

[Frank Rossi]

...I do think they have to be in the discussion with Salisbury, an undefeated NJAC team and undefeated MAC team as equals or better (in speculative terms since they don't play during the reg season).

Nobody is denying that discussion.  The issue is whether or not a Committee will honor 8-0 as the ability to prevent the drawing in of an undefeated outsider to balance the bracket.  Remember, two things are at play here.  Essentially, the last two Committees, under the same Chair, both insinuated that a 9-0 or 10-0 team in a strong East Region conference would have prevented the Mount Union move to the East.  The problem is that 8-0 would likely be viewed by that same Committee as being more like a 9-1 record than a 9-0 or 10-0 record because of the lack of OOC games and less ability to measure the team.  The other thing at play is that we have a new Committee Chair this year, so perhaps the philosophy continues to mold or changes completely this year.  It's anyone's guess -- but I would feel pretty confident in saying based on our discussions on and off the record in the past that 8-0 isn't going to be held as on par with 9-0 or 10-0 -- and for a team in a somewhat down conference, it's not going to prevent Mount Union from coming East without another undefeated team from the NJAC, E8 or MAC.

[Bombers798891]

I was away at a wedding, and apparently missed an interesting weekend in E8 action.

Looks like it's Fisher-Salisbury may be the game to decide the E8. Amazing rebound for Fisher, and IMO, the best defensive performance of the year for the conference. Dominating.

Fisher is a strange team. Three great defensive efforts, and one head-scratcher. Likewise, one great offensive game, and three that were just okay. But clearly, they are one of the favorites in the E8, if not the favorite.

The Bombers apparently looked okay, but it's clear the defense/special teams is going to have to do the heavy lifting. Ithaca simply cannot run the ball effectively. Very interesting matchup with Fisher coming up. Cardinals have to be the clear favorite, but this is the first true road game for the Cardinals.

Utica-Salisbury. Ye gods, Utica is the new Hartwick. Score a lot, can't stop anyone. Not going to win a lot like that though.

Springfield unsurprisingly, takes care of Merchant Marine.

[dlippiel]

but I would feel pretty confident in saying based on our discussions on and off the record in the past that 8-0 isn't going to be held as on par with 9-0 or 10-0 -- and for a team in a somewhat down conference, it's not going to prevent Mount Union from coming East without another undefeated team from the NJAC, E8 or MAC.

dlip concurrs with this statement and feels that this will be the case if Bart does clear all the food of their table and ends up 8-0. Honestly dlip can't really argue with it either. An undefeated MAC, E8, or NJAC team clearly deserves the #1 over Hobart regardless of Barts possible in season accomplishment.

[SJFF82]

I was away at a wedding, and apparently missed an interesting weekend in E8 action.

Looks like it's Fisher-Salisbury may be the game to decide the E8. Amazing rebound for Fisher, and IMO, the best defensive performance of the year for the conference. Dominating.

Fisher is a strange team. Three great defensive efforts, and one head-scratcher. Likewise, one great offensive game, and three that were just okay. But clearly, they are one of the favorites in the E8, if not the favorite.

The Bombers apparently looked okay, but it's clear the defense/special teams is going to have to do the heavy lifting. Ithaca simply cannot run the ball effectively. Very interesting matchup with Fisher coming up. Cardinals have to be the clear favorite, but this is the first true road game for the Cardinals.

Utica-Salisbury. Ye gods, Utica is the new Hartwick. Score a lot, can't stop anyone. Not going to win a lot like that though.

Springfield unsurprisingly, takes care of Merchant Marine.

That was kinda my point last week when I said that Hobart's defacing of their defense may not be indicative of things to come against the IC/AU's of the season.   They seem to have that blow-up on the defensive side of the ball every other year or more, with no real sign of it the rest of the season.

It is really the offense that is concerning, because they seem to want to run that helter-skelter offense at all costs, including losing???

A great win this weekend and nice to see that SJF will still have a say in the East Region.

[drt]

So UC takes the second half kickoff and drives for a TD, and a 14-point lead against a ranked and heavily-favored opponent.
Salisbury takes the next kickoff, drives to pull within 7.
UC takes the kickoff, snaps the ball over Benkwitt's head, Salisbury ball on the UC 3, tie game. 
UC gets the ball back, drives for a FG and a 3-point lead. 
What a great blow-for-blow game..... 
Salisbury takes the kickoff back 80+ yards to go ahead, and you could literally see UC deflate.
It was all Salisbury from there.
UC's offense is very good, and features lots of weapons, but I don't see why they continues to run the no-huddle when it is so apparent that they need to keep their defense off the field.
Salisbury's option has alot of mis-direction and they run it very well.  They will be tough for anyone to stop if they're hitting on all cylinders.

[Saxon73]

Methinks next weekend's matchup of Salisbury vs Springfield will be a game to watch.  Difficulties in handling these offenses should be a concern to each team still to play either.

[Pat Coleman]

Methinks next weekend's matchup of Salisbury vs Springfield will be a game to watch.  Difficulties in handling these offenses should be a concern to each team still to play either.

Yes, but don't be late. Should be over after about two hours or so.

[Saxon73]

Unfortunately, I can't help being analytical in nature.  Further research shows Salisbury beat Christopher Newport in the last minute, Chris-New lost to Stevenson narrowly, and Stevenson (a first year program) was decimated by Wilkes, Leb Valley and DelValley.  Still respecting Sal's 4-0 record something seems afoot    (yes a retired AU engineer)

[drt]

Yeah Pat, for these guys airing it out is the pitch to the counter back.....

[Pat Coleman]

Two pieces of detail that might help, Saxon73 -- CNU at Stevenson was the first-ever Stevenson home game, night game, in front of 5,000 fans. Salisbury at CNU was the first-ever home night game at CNU with a similarly fired-up crowd. That might only be worth a few points either way but there is almost certainly at least some impact from playing a historic home game with a big crowd.

I'm not getting too concerned at the moment about the margin of victory/defeat in either of those games.

[sjfcards]

Looks like it's Fisher-Salisbury may be the game to decide the E8.

I don't know if I would say that yet. AU still has to play Salisbury, and with that Fisher offense a team that can manage to put up some points (UC, Springfield, Salisbury) maybe give them a lot of trouble. Fisher still has a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball. I am really worried about that Salisbury game for Fisher. On the road, against a quirky offense, a big physical team, at the end of the season without a bye week. Yikes!! I was really happy to see the Fisher offense move the ball and get scores in the second half, when they needed them. I would still like to see more use of Borum, and less of the offense where we get the ball to Kramer and let him run around until someone breaks open.

I think after a few games in conference we are looking at a scenario that Kickoff sort of predicted. Maybe no one goes undefeated in league play, and the AQ decision is made deeper into the tie breakers than in years past. Would anyone be shocked if Fisher lost to Salisbury, but then Salisbury lost to AU? Throw a Springfield team that has had some success against Fisher in the past, and you have a real interesting race for that AQ.

[Bombers798891]

Is it just me, or are the offenses in the E8 as a whole really bad this season?

Through four weeks, E8 teams have scored 30 points or more 11 times, and 20 or less nine times

Last season, through four weeks, E8 teams scored 30 or more 16 times, and 20 or less only three times (All belonging to the Wick.)

* I excluded Salisbury and Frostburg from the analysis

So not only does it seem that are teams less explosive, they're being kept under wraps a lot more. It seems like this is mostly attributable to IC and Fisher, both of whom graduated a decent amount of offensive talent, but watching Alfred struggle last week, and the Wick struggle to score most of the season, I got to wondering. Is it just cyclical and defenses are just on top? Are good players having bad seasons? Is weather playing a role?

Thoughts?