FB: Empire 8

[fisheralum91]

Fisher gets a big win on the road at Ithaca and loses all of its votes for the top 25?
Is that because AU almost lost to Wick?

[pg04]

I'll venture a guess.   Salisbury jumped from 115 points to 185 points.  I think it's possible that the 15 points or a great many of them went to Salisbury. 

[dlippiel]

I'll venture a guess.   Salisbury jumped from 115 points to 185 points.  I think it's possible that the 15 points or a great many of them went to Salisbury.

We will know exactly what the Gulls are made of after the Wesley game. Wesley is back and if Salisbury can beat them, which dlip does not think will happen, we will know just how ****in good they are!

[wesleydad]

in the end the wesley game doesnt mean much to salisbury.  they run the table they are in with the auto bid.  losing to wesley just means their seed drops lower.  not seeing much defense in the e 8 against them so far.  tough games ahead, think i will be making the trip to see the game against fisher, but if the fisher o is not very good they will have to be monster on d to win the game.  this week should tell a lot, a blow out of alfred and they solidify their spot a top the e8.  have seen them play for 7 years now, they are tough to defend especially if you dont see it often.  the fact that they threw 3 td's should worry whomever still has to play them.

[Frank Rossi]

I'll venture a guess.   Salisbury jumped from 115 points to 185 points.  I think it's possible that the 15 points or a great many of them went to Salisbury.

I'm more interested to hear how Hobart lost points this week, beating one of its two arch-rivals in a sound victory.  Keith had Hobart at #15 last week (see "Around the Nation"); I moved the team from not on my ballot to 23rd.  Yet, Hobart went from 39 to 35 points (26th to 29th, I believe).  Kind of weird.

Salisbury moved up on my ballot more because other teams slightly above shuffled under based on losses or bad performances.  On my ballot, it did not come at the cost of any other East Region team, for instance.

[Pat Coleman]

That was the source of some good discussion on Twitter this week.

[Frank Rossi]

in the end the wesley game doesnt mean much to salisbury.  they run the table they are in with the auto bid.  losing to wesley just means their seed drops lower.  not seeing much defense in the e 8 against them so far.  tough games ahead, think i will be making the trip to see the game against fisher, but if the fisher o is not very good they will have to be monster on d to win the game.  this week should tell a lot, a blow out of alfred and they solidify their spot a top the e8.  have seen them play for 7 years now, they are tough to defend especially if you dont see it often.  the fact that they threw 3 td's should worry whomever still has to play them.

I respectfully disagree on this one.  Salisbury's two games against SJF and Alfred are not easy games, making the Wesley game still very pivotal.  If Salisbury splits the two E8 key games, they would lose the E8 if the team that beats them runs the E8 table.  That would make Wesley/Salisbury a survival game for the NCAA Playoffs for Salisbury (since two losses would kill Pool C chances barring a lack of one-loss Pool C-eligible teams or a change in Committee trend).  Similarly, Wesley could be facing survival/elimination in that game since Pool B's one slot is no guarantee at two losses (there are some one-loss Pool B teams left).  So, currently, that game is much more important than we thought for both teams heading into the season.

[Bombers798891]

I'll venture a guess.   Salisbury jumped from 115 points to 185 points.  I think it's possible that the 15 points or a great many of them went to Salisbury.

I'm more interested to hear how Hobart lost points this week, beating one of its two arch-rivals in a sound victory.  Keith had Hobart at #15 last week (see "Around the Nation"); I moved the team from not on my ballot to 23rd.  Yet, Hobart went from 39 to 35 points (26th to 29th, I believe).  Kind of weird.

Might it just be that, arch-rival status or no, the teams Hobart and SJF beat aren't viewed as very good? I know, in rivalries, anything can happen, the other team is always fired up, but the voters aren't going to view the rivalry aspect of it the way fans do.

[Frank Rossi]

I'll venture a guess.   Salisbury jumped from 115 points to 185 points.  I think it's possible that the 15 points or a great many of them went to Salisbury.

I'm more interested to hear how Hobart lost points this week, beating one of its two arch-rivals in a sound victory.  Keith had Hobart at #15 last week (see "Around the Nation"); I moved the team from not on my ballot to 23rd.  Yet, Hobart went from 39 to 35 points (26th to 29th, I believe).  Kind of weird.

Might it just be that, arch-rival status or no, the teams Hobart and SJF beat aren't viewed as very good? I know, in rivalries, anything can happen, the other team is always fired up, but the voters aren't going to view the rivalry aspect of it the way fans do.

It's just odd to see leapfrogging going on when only one major ranked team was beaten this week.  I brought up Keith's ballot and mine to point out that if Keith kept Hobart stable, we're accounting for 14 of the 35 points Hobart has.  Even if the other 23 ballots had Hobart at #25, that would be 37 points.  You have to assume that some people would have them closer to #20 while others would opt against them entirely.  So, my confusion is in the math of it unless Keith realized that maybe #15 was a bit too high and reversed his ballot a bit this weekend.

[EDIT: I guess I keep forgetting that Cortland was ranked higher in the poll than I had them ranked, so make that two major ranked teams getting beaten.  That said, did none of Cortland's points go to a team like Hobart, now one of the few unbeatens in the East Region?  Hmmmm...]

[Ralph Turner]

With respect to Cortland State, #18 Cortland travels to #12 Montclair State and loses by 1 point.

What outcome would one expect?

[Frank Rossi]

With respect to Cortland State, #18 Cortland travels to #12 Montclair State and loses by 1 point.

What outcome would one expect?

For some people, it becomes a confirmation that Cortland is not as strong as we might have thought to start the season.  Cortland lost a lot of points -- so my question is, where did they go?

[Pat Coleman]

Well, one at a time to more or less all the teams in between Montclair and Cortland today. Also to teams that made big moves this week. This isn't going to be a direct one-to-one correlation but Huntingdon gained 46 points, Kean and Montclair combined to gain 67, Salisbury gained 70 ... I mean, obviously they all went somewhere but like we pointed out on Facebook, tough week to lose. Only two teams lost, they were within range of falling all the way out if you consider that an isolated loss by a Top 25 team tends to cost them 12 spots in a vacuum. And Huntingdon and Birmingham-Southern were pushing to get in, as was UW-Oshkosh with its win at Eau Claire.

Points consolidated in the NJAC, 889 last week and 773 this week. 

[Bombers798891]

My E8 Rankings this week

1. Salisbury-- An impressive win over Springfield makes them the top team

2. Fisher-- They didn't look great against IC, and the offense, like many in the conference, doesn't seem good enough to make a lot of noise nationally. But the defense continues to play very well, and they're, in my view, the clear number two thanks to the H2H win, as well as a road win.

3. Alfred-- The Saxons just don't look sharp. It's one thing for the offensively challenged Bombers to struggle at the Cage, but a team with the Saxons' offensive talent settling for FG's in the red zone and turning the ball over on three straight possessions? That's just surprising. It's also unlikely to work next weekend against a better team.

(Please note: There is really nothing distinguishing the next batch of teams from one another, in my mind. I will provide my rationale, but honestly, I expect, and welcome disagreements)

4. Ithaca-- This is less of an endorsement of Ithaca as it is a depressing commentary on the overall mediocrity of the E8. Bombers could be 4-1. They could also be 1-4. They're going to be in every game because they play great defense, but won't win many because they can't score.

5. Springfield-- Why are they behind Ithaca? The Bombers played Salisbury tough, falling 21-7. Springfield hung for a half, but you can't get outscored 37-0 in the second half and get the benefit of a toss-up. 65 points and 560 yards allowed? Brutal. Right now, that's all we have to compare the teams, so I'm okay with this order. There is no reason to think that Springfield can't beat the Bombers though

6. Frostburg-- Putting the Bobcats here even though I think they're a dangerous team that could also beat Ithaca. I know their losses were to good teams, but I can't put them ahead of Springfield because of the head to head loss, and I've shared why I think the Pride need to be behind the Bombers.

7. Utica-- The LL is, with the exception of Hobart, middling again. But wins over SLU, Union and RPI trump Morrisville State and Norwich. But the Pioneers now have to try and break through in conference, something they struggle with yearly.

8. Hartwick-- I was tempted to bumping up the Hawks for showing fight these last two weeks, but Utica's still got a better body of work than the Hawks

[sjfcards]

Just back from Ithaca. A great game at the end. Ithaca was a tough out for sure. They moved the ball, but struggled to finish off drives. Big win for Fisher.

Props to Fisher.  It was a hard fought game with neither team giving much for the other team to work with.  Another game that came down to special teams, this one not falling the Bombers way.  Both of Rogo's kicks never had a shot once they got past the line; a block and a bad snap/placement that never gave the kick a chance.  Fisher's overtime field goal looked awful and seemed to have a homing device to get it over the goal post.  That was the difference.  Very disappointing overall as I felt Ithaca had a great shot to win the game.  The losses don't get easier the longer you're around, this one stings...

Go Bombers, good luck Fisher.

What did you think of the OT play-calling Bomber? I know Hendel had struggled going downfield, but IMO, at home, the first time you even have a CHANCE to get a win against Fisher since '05, and you play for the FG? Give me a break. That first-down run was an absolute waste of a down in my view. News flash Welch: Your running backs can not run the ball, because your offensive line is horrible. Seriously, how much more evidence do you need? Your running backs have 352 yards this season on 112 carries.

I so rarely call out coaches, because hey, they're smarter than me. But Welch playing that conservatively in the OT drove me nuts. Exactly what do you have to lose by taking a shot? It's not like you're running to set up the play-action.

I thought each coach had some suspect play calling. IMHO the way Fisher handled the end of regulation was all wrong. They drove down and got to the point where they were looking at a 42 yard field goal, with 39 seconds and one timeout left. They let the game clock wind all the way down to 3 seconds before calling the time out, and sending on the field goal unit. It was 3rd down (and 1). Why not run a QB sneak or something and get another yard or two, call the time out, and give the kicker another yard or two? Also, in overtime on something like 3rd and 3, Kramer threw a floater behind the line of scrimmage that lost yards. This Fisher offense kills me sometimes.

On the IC side, the play calling almost seemed predictable. A little too easy to see what was coming for me. It really looked like neither team wanted to make a mistake in the second half, and the play calling really showed it.

[Bombers798891]

Just back from Ithaca. A great game at the end. Ithaca was a tough out for sure. They moved the ball, but struggled to finish off drives. Big win for Fisher.

Props to Fisher.  It was a hard fought game with neither team giving much for the other team to work with.  Another game that came down to special teams, this one not falling the Bombers way.  Both of Rogo's kicks never had a shot once they got past the line; a block and a bad snap/placement that never gave the kick a chance.  Fisher's overtime field goal looked awful and seemed to have a homing device to get it over the goal post.  That was the difference.  Very disappointing overall as I felt Ithaca had a great shot to win the game.  The losses don't get easier the longer you're around, this one stings...

Go Bombers, good luck Fisher.

What did you think of the OT play-calling Bomber? I know Hendel had struggled going downfield, but IMO, at home, the first time you even have a CHANCE to get a win against Fisher since '05, and you play for the FG? Give me a break. That first-down run was an absolute waste of a down in my view. News flash Welch: Your running backs can not run the ball, because your offensive line is horrible. Seriously, how much more evidence do you need? Your running backs have 352 yards this season on 112 carries.

I so rarely call out coaches, because hey, they're smarter than me. But Welch playing that conservatively in the OT drove me nuts. Exactly what do you have to lose by taking a shot? It's not like you're running to set up the play-action.

I thought each coach had some suspect play calling. IMHO the way Fisher handled the end of regulation was all wrong. They drove down and got to the point where they were looking at a 42 yard field goal, with 39 seconds and one timeout left. They let the game clock wind all the way down to 3 seconds before calling the time out, and sending on the field goal unit. It was 3rd down (and 1). Why not run a QB sneak or something and get another yard or two, call the time out, and give the kicker another yard or two? Also, in overtime on something like 3rd and 3, Kramer threw a floater behind the line of scrimmage that lost yards. This Fisher offense kills me sometimes.

On the IC side, the play calling almost seemed predictable. A little too easy to see what was coming for me. It really looked like neither team wanted to make a mistake in the second half, and the play calling really showed it.

I have this theory that the worst thing for a D-III coach is a kicker that can hit a kick from 35+ yards. Because they wind up playing for/attempting way too many kicks from that distance and most guys can't do it consistently. Monheim nailed that first kick from 36 yards, so the coaching staff probably figured he could do it again. He missed from 40, and managed to sneak the one in from 34, that might not have been good from 35. This season, Monheim is 4-of-9 from 35 yards or more. So when you get into an overtime, and you're right in that range, what do you do?

Rogowski is the same way: In 2009 he's 4-for-6 on kicks of 35+. In 2010? 2-for-5. This year? 1-for-2.

So it's a really, really tricky situation. Do you risk a turnover (and maybe a possible score) trying to get your kicker closer? Or do you roll the dice on the leg, which, for lots of teams, is unreliable? Sure, a pick-6 is less likely than a missed kick, but, Fisher already had the tie in this situation. The worst case scenario would be OT, or double OT. And IC had forced 18 turnovers to that point on the season. So even more of a benefit to play conservative and go for the kick.

Honestly, neither team seems to have confidence in its offense to make plays right now, perhaps with good reason. The defenses are the only reason either team is over .500