FB: Empire 8

[WashedUp]

Early prediction:

UST 34
SJFC 24

I think it's hard to make an accurate prediction, as far back as I go I can't find any games between any teams in the MIAC and the E8, or even any common opponents. Based on the fact that UST is going to the national quarterfinal for the third straight season and this team looks like the best they've had so far, I think UST will win, but have no clue what score to expect.

[SJFF82]

Fisher Football is now tied with Pac-Lutheran for 3rd ALL-TIME highest winning percentage in the NCAA play-offs (minimum 10 games as reported by NCAA)

...their record is 8-3 (2 losses to MUC)

MUC is of course 1st at an astounding 71-12
UWW is 2nd at 30-6


Ithaca is 9th at 27--14....nice!

My law school alma mater, Dayton, is 11th....

Vosburgh has built a great program over the long-haul...congrats to him and his long-time assistants!

[sjfcards]

Fisher Football is now tied with Pac-Lutheran for 3rd ALL-TIME highest winning percentage in the NCAA play-offs (minimum 10 games as reported by NCAA)

...their record is 8-3 (2 losses to MUC)

MUC is of course 1st at an astounding 71-12
UWW is 2nd at 30-6


Ithaca is 9th at 27--14....nice!

My law school alma mater, Dayton, is 11th....

Vosburgh has built a great program over the long-haul...congrats to him and his long-time assistants!

That is a great stat. Congrats to Fisher. If nothing else, when they get to the playoffs they win when they get there. It is interesting to see how teams stack up, but those records by UWW and MUC are just rediculous.

[SJFF82]

Fisher Football is now tied with Pac-Lutheran for 3rd ALL-TIME highest winning percentage in the NCAA play-offs (minimum 10 games as reported by NCAA)

...their record is 8-3 (2 losses to MUC)

MUC is of course 1st at an astounding 71-12
UWW is 2nd at 30-6


Ithaca is 9th at 27--14....nice!

My law school alma mater, Dayton, is 11th....

Vosburgh has built a great program over the long-haul...congrats to him and his long-time assistants!

That is a great stat. Congrats to Fisher. If nothing else, when they get to the playoffs they win when they get there. It is interesting to see how teams stack up, but those records by UWW and MUC are just rediculous.

I believe you meant re-MUC-able

[Pat Coleman]

I will say this, in reading through the MIAC board. You did get all of ONE St. Thomas fan response before you decided all of them were worthless, so perhaps you brought more responses on yourselves. And you guys made the usual mistake of assuming someone else (a Carleton fan) was a St. Thomas fan just because they responded to you. Those are some pretty basic things -- you guys have been around the boards long enough to know better, I'd have thought.

Yes, they piled on ... but you guys didn't exactly help the process.

[repete]

Fisher fans, looking at the St. Thomas schedule it does not look like they played more than 1 or 2 good teams.  Bethel is a solid program and that game looked rather even.  The usual MIAC power St. Johns is way off this year.  Fisher is likely the best team they have played all year.  I am not sure about Bethel's size or physicallity but they are not likely any bigger or more physical than Fisher.  Stats are easily misleading and I think that the Tommies' may be.  From an early, quick look at things I think Fisher has a good chance of winning this game.  The weather could always play a part in the game since it is in Minnesota.  Unless you guys are afraid to go play them based on their posters unbiased opinions about how good they are.

I wouldn't be so sure about talking down the St. Thomas schedule. With St. John's down, the conference was more balanced than ever ... and that balance limited the league to one playoff team as it usually does the powerful WIAC. IMO Bethel, which can be very physical, could probably beat half the playoff field. St. Olaf was ranking and headed for postseason until the rejuvenated Johnnies  took them out late in the year.

That said a team like SJF could wake up the echoes of that 12-7 loss to Bethel in last year's regional finals.

repete, I used Bethel in my post as likely the only good team they played.  Thanks for agreeing with me.  The rest of the schedule is not that good, St. Olaf is ok.  The balanced conference is the same explanation that the E8, NJAC, and MAC use for when they dont have an undefeated team which then limits their leagues to just one team.

The balanced league argument can be legit. It's hurt the WIAC for years. Beneath UWW are usually some very, very good teams.

Disagree on the "not that good" rest of the schedule. The MIAC for years had one of the best postseason records of any conference, though I don't know if that's been updated lately. And it does well against non-conference foes. This season, for instance, the top  six teams in the league are 11-1 against non-MIAC opponents, mostly from the West Region. While not as solid top to bottom as the cheesehead rivals, the MIAC has middle of the pack teams that are usually very solid but not spectacular ... and would  be AQ contenders in lesser leagues. It's easy to view lopsided wins as signs of a soft sked, but the d3 voters must have seen something to have the Tommies at No. 3.

It'll never happen (and some would say it probably shouldn't), but in some ways it would be fun to have teams with the ability to travel a little farther afield for their NC games.

Having only seen webcasts, I don't have a true feeling how good either team is. I have a hunch it will be a very good, close game ... as third-round games should be.

[fisheralum91]

Great stats 82!
Heading out to Minnesota?

[SU Backer]

 to the Salisbury faithful, quoting President Roosevelt...."Far better is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure....than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat"....Go GULLS!!

[bleedpurple]

In looking over results and reading various assessments (some very biased and some not), it seems to me that up until this point in time, the Tommies are what they are.  They will almost always beat an average to above average team.  When they face a team as good as Bethel or better, sometimes they win, sometimes they lose.  They have never given themselves the opportunity to challenge the purple powers by winning a quarterfinal game, so even they don't know what kind of gap may be there.

If SJF is average to above average, they will almost certainly lose.
If SJF is as good as Bethel, they probably have about a 50% chance of winning.

What's very unknown is how the game will turn out if SJF is better than Bethel. Does it stay at around 50% or does SJF's chances sky rocket from there. There doesn't seem to be enough data to know.  The Tommies have split playoff games against Linfield (another team that's hard to figure nationally the past few years).  In their overtime game game the Cats last year, the Tommies won in spite of turning the ball over 5 times, completing only 44% of their passes, and averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.

What we know is that St. Thomas' opponents have had a hard time running the ball against them. Waldvogel is a weapon both on special teams and as a receiver, and Tracy, their QB can hurt teams with his feet. IMO, the Tommies have not been sufficiently tested to know whether their passing game is good or consistent enough to carry the day against a team good enough to limit their running game. 

[fisheralum91]

I guess we will find out all of this and more on SatErday.
You west coast guys will have a new appreciation of East region teams me thinks...

[repete]

West coast? Of Lake Superior?

[02 Warhawk]

West coast? Of Lake Superior?

Lake Michigan for us

   

[fisheralum91]

shoulda said west...
sorry..
jeez- you guys a very litteral

[bleedpurple]

I guess we will find out all of this and more on SatErday.
You west coast guys will have a new appreciation of East region teams me thinks...

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

[fisheralum91]

I am with many Fisher fans getting a crash course on St. Thomas.
They seem rather evenly matched.
Should be a good game.
I will say this- I am extremely proud of what Fisher has done this year to date- Coach Vos is to thank for that.