FB: Empire 8

[Bombers798891]

Interesting enough, many say that Salisbury may not be as good this year as previous, you may or may not be correct depending on how you value a team. I think the perception is that Salisbury has not been putting up big numbers offensively this year as last year. However, Salisbury has not been giving up that many points either. I did a quick analysis of points scored last year compared to this year. Salisbury average 44.92 ppg (thru 13 games)last year and average 33.36 this year (thru 11 games), which is a differential 11.56 points. However, the defense gave up 20.84 last year thru 13 games and only gives up 13.27 this year, which is a differential of 7.57. Overall, it is roughly on a difference of 4 points. Therefore based on my anaylsis, correct me if i'm wrong, last year Salisbury team is only 4 points better than this years.

I think many people look at points scored as an indicator if a team is great or not and forget that defense plays games too.

The Gulls had eight common opponents in 2011 and 2012: Six E8 teams, Wesley, and Christopher Newport.

Last season, the Gulls won those games by an average of 26.5 points
This season, the average margin of victory in those games is 17.1 points

That's a 9.5 point difference, not a 4 point difference

And you can go deeper with yardage totals:

Last season, the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 160 yards, (443-283)
This season the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 89 yards, (382-293)

That's not to say Salisbury isn't still great. But I think the gap has narrowed.

[SUADC]

Interesting enough, many say that Salisbury may not be as good this year as previous, you may or may not be correct depending on how you value a team. I think the perception is that Salisbury has not been putting up big numbers offensively this year as last year. However, Salisbury has not been giving up that many points either. I did a quick analysis of points scored last year compared to this year. Salisbury average 44.92 ppg (thru 13 games)last year and average 33.36 this year (thru 11 games), which is a differential 11.56 points. However, the defense gave up 20.84 last year thru 13 games and only gives up 13.27 this year, which is a differential of 7.57. Overall, it is roughly on a difference of 4 points. Therefore based on my anaylsis, correct me if i'm wrong, last year Salisbury team is only 4 points better than this years.

I think many people look at points scored as an indicator if a team is great or not and forget that defense plays games too.

The Gulls had eight common opponents in 2011 and 2012: Six E8 teams, Wesley, and Christopher Newport.

Last season, the Gulls won those games by an average of 26.5 points
This season, the average margin of victory in those games is 17.1 points

That's a 9.5 point difference, not a 4 point difference

And you can go deeper with yardage totals:

Last season, the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 160 yards, (443-283)
This season the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 89 yards, (382-293)

That's not to say Salisbury isn't still great. But I think the gap has narrowed.

Good analysis,

I got 8.5, just looking at common opponents. Nevertheless, A touchdown and safety better. I feel that that is still not that much better. Granted, I will still love to see them score more like last year. +K

[bman]

Interesting enough, many say that Salisbury may not be as good this year as previous, you may or may not be correct depending on how you value a team. I think the perception is that Salisbury has not been putting up big numbers offensively this year as last year. However, Salisbury has not been giving up that many points either. I did a quick analysis of points scored last year compared to this year. Salisbury average 44.92 ppg (thru 13 games)last year and average 33.36 this year (thru 11 games), which is a differential 11.56 points. However, the defense gave up 20.84 last year thru 13 games and only gives up 13.27 this year, which is a differential of 7.57. Overall, it is roughly on a difference of 4 points. Therefore based on my anaylsis, correct me if i'm wrong, last year Salisbury team is only 4 points better than this years.

I think many people look at points scored as an indicator if a team is great or not and forget that defense plays games too.

The Gulls had eight common opponents in 2011 and 2012: Six E8 teams, Wesley, and Christopher Newport.

Last season, the Gulls won those games by an average of 26.5 points
This season, the average margin of victory in those games is 17.1 points

That's a 9.5 point difference, not a 4 point difference

And you can go deeper with yardage totals:

Last season, the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 160 yards, (443-283)
This season the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 89 yards, (382-293)

That's not to say Salisbury isn't still great. But I think the gap has narrowed.

Good analysis,

I got 8.5, just looking at common opponents. Nevertheless, A touchdown and safety better. I feel that that is still not that much better. Granted, I will still love to see them score more like last year. +K

...just not this week

[Bombers798891]

Interesting enough, many say that Salisbury may not be as good this year as previous, you may or may not be correct depending on how you value a team. I think the perception is that Salisbury has not been putting up big numbers offensively this year as last year. However, Salisbury has not been giving up that many points either. I did a quick analysis of points scored last year compared to this year. Salisbury average 44.92 ppg (thru 13 games)last year and average 33.36 this year (thru 11 games), which is a differential 11.56 points. However, the defense gave up 20.84 last year thru 13 games and only gives up 13.27 this year, which is a differential of 7.57. Overall, it is roughly on a difference of 4 points. Therefore based on my anaylsis, correct me if i'm wrong, last year Salisbury team is only 4 points better than this years.

I think many people look at points scored as an indicator if a team is great or not and forget that defense plays games too.

The Gulls had eight common opponents in 2011 and 2012: Six E8 teams, Wesley, and Christopher Newport.

Last season, the Gulls won those games by an average of 26.5 points
This season, the average margin of victory in those games is 17.1 points

That's a 9.5 point difference, not a 4 point difference

And you can go deeper with yardage totals:

Last season, the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 160 yards, (443-283)
This season the Gulls outgained those eight opponents by an average of 89 yards, (382-293)

That's not to say Salisbury isn't still great. But I think the gap has narrowed.

Good analysis,

I got 8.5, just looking at common opponents. Nevertheless, A touchdown and safety better. I feel that that is still not that much better. Granted, I will still love to see them score more like last year. +K

Well, the other part of the equation is the teams they're playing. CNU and Wesley are both down offensively, as is the E8 as a whole. I posted about E8 offenses awhile ago but a quick glance at the numbers shows that both CNU and Wesley aren't scoring at nearly the same clip, which might also account for the defensive numbers

[SUADC]

SUADC,
You really think that this years team is as good as last?
If that is the case then many in the E8 have caught up to you, or what I think to be true, this is just a down season for the league as a whole.

Comparing this year to last year, it is very challenging to say. I believe that it would be a good game between the two teams.

Since I played defense, I am more bias towards favoring the team with the better defense (which I would give the nod to this year). It would be great to see that game.

I really do not think it is that much of a down year, I think the conference is getting better overall, their has been some great wins within the conference this year. As far as being caught up, I think we surprised a lot of teams and people last year, Salisbury has always been good and the other teams as well, we just have been fortunate to join a conference that allows us to show it on national scale. 

[SU Backer]

 This year's SU team is not as prolific on the offensive side of the ball, but they are capable of being scary good at times. The defense appears to be be getting healthy at the right time at the end of the year. SU being in the playoffs a bunch of times in recent years, getting to the quarter finals last year, and playing what looks like a little tougher schedule than WU, will be the difference in this game. Gulls in a close game-Go Gulls!

[Bombers798891]

All-Conference Teams announced today. Honestly, I'm going to sound like a homer, but I think Phil Neumann got robbed of an honorable mention at QB

Neumann: 164-275 (59%) 1685 yards, 15 TD, 7 Picks
Kacz: 148-265 (56%) 2168 yards, 11 TD, 10 Picks

Nearly half of Kacz's touchdowns (5) came in the first game of the season. After that game, he had 6 TD's and 9 INTs. He went three straight weeks without a touchdown pass. Yeah, the yardage total is much higher, but he threw fewer touchdowns, more interceptions, and had a worse completion percentage. Honestly, a ~ 2:1 TD/INT ratio is a lot more impressive than a ~ 1:1 One week does not a season make IMO. But I guess that's all Kacz needed.

[wesleydad]

having seen the gulls for the past 8 years, this offense is not as prolific as ones i have seen in the past.  with that being said, the defense seems to be better than most i have seen in the past.  this weekends game breaks down like this to me.  widener will likely be able to throw the ball on salisbury and salisbury will likely be able to run the ball on widener.  having seen both teams play this year i think that despite the numbers the gulls offense will be much more successful against widener's defense than the pride's offense will be against the gulls.  if the gulls do not put the ball on the ground and give widener extra possessions than i can see them winning this game by more than 10.  widener made plenty of mistakes against del val and apparently in the first half last week.  if they do that again this week and give the gulls extra possessions this could get ugly.  nothing new, turnovers will be key.  if both teams play a clean game i think the gulls win because they have the better defense.

[SU Backer]

 WesleyDad ... good point on turnovers, obviously the game can change if SU or WU give away possesions....I think special teams are a critical part of playoff games as well...big games can turn on a special teams play...I don't know WU's kicking game, but I know that SU has the special teams player of the year in the E8 in their punter and a accurate placekicker as well and a good kick return game...have you seen WU's kicker(s)?

[wesleydad]

WesleyDad ... good point on turnovers, obviously the game can change if SU or WU give away possesions....I think special teams are a critical part of playoff games as well...big games can turn on a special teams play...I don't know WU's kicking game, but I know that SU has the special teams player of the year in the E8 in their punter and a accurate placekicker as well and a good kick return game...have you seen WU's kicker(s)?

in the game i saw they had trouble with the long snap on punts, 3 or 4 were on the ground.  1 turned into a turnover that allowed del val to score the first td.  i do remember your punter this year, pinned wesley inside the 20 for what seemed like the whole game.  advantage in the kicking game goes to the gulls.  widener has a pretty good returner, but the gulls speed will likely be able to handle that.  in the end if the gulls play clean i do not see them losing this game.

[HScoach]

As a Mount guy looking in from the outside, I really hope Salisbury wins over Widener.  I like getting exposed to new teams and would love to see the Mount defense against the Salisbury option run game.    Would be an interesting adjustment for Mount as we don't see any real running offenses in the OAC, and definitely not the option.  Plus the E-8 has shown itself well against Mount in previous seasons.

Whereas we've already seen Widener before and they brought absolutely nothing to the table defensively.  They had a nice passing game with some talented receivers, but they had one of the worst defenses we've EVER seen in the playoffs.  They would have been on par with the C Newport defense we just faced.    I realize that's been a while, but everything I'm reading about 2012 Widener sounds just like what we saw from them in 2000.  Only not quite as talented at WR, but same bad defense.    Which would be terrible preparation for MHB the next week.

Go Gulls!

[wesleydad]

As a Mount guy looking in from the outside, I really hope Salisbury wins over Widener.  I like getting exposed to new teams and would love to see the Mount defense against the Salisbury option run game.    Would be an interesting adjustment for Mount as we don't see any real running offenses in the OAC, and definitely not the option.  Plus the E-8 has shown itself well against Mount in previous seasons.

Whereas we've already seen Widener before and they brought absolutely nothing to the table defensively.  They had a nice passing game with some talented receivers, but they had one of the worst defenses we've EVER seen in the playoffs.  They would have been on par with the C Newport defense we just faced.    I realize that's been a while, but everything I'm reading about 2012 Widener sounds just like what we saw from them in 2000.  Only not quite as talented at WR, but same bad defense.    Which would be terrible preparation for MHB the next week.

Go Gulls!

hscoach, dont be in such a hurry to play umhb, they will still have to beat a wesley team who did not play very well in game one and only lost by 7, only 4 if you include the 3 missed extra points.  you are right about the widener/salisbury game.  widener is pretty talented at WR though.  seeing the gulls would be good for mount if they would have to play umhb.

[HScoach]

Dad:   I would love to play Wesley in 2 weeks.  No offense intended, but MHB is the only team in the bracket that I honestly fear.  There are others that could be beat Mount, but MHB is a serious matchup problem for the Raider defense.  Even if we play well, what they do best plays right into our biggest defensive weakness.  And our running game isn't as strong as it's been.  We've got good rushing stats, but we lack a true #1 RB and none of them can get the tough yards when needed.  They're all scat-backs. 

[sjfcards]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the boards and their families. Hope you all enjoy today.

[dlippiel]

Dlip really thinks the Gulls are going to roll Widener on Saturday. The pride have not seen an offense like this yet in 2012. They have been on the ropes against much lesser opponents and just seem very vulnerable. Dlip likes Widener's skill players on O but they just will not be enough IDHO. Let's hope for a great injury free game. Congrats to both teams on getting to the second round. Let's go Gulls!