FB: Empire 8

[middlerelief]

Fisher loses in a tough one to Salisbury.  Final score SU 42 Fisher 35. 

It's disappointing to me how slighted Salisbury has been this year.  New QB in an unconventional offense loses in a close one to a decent Christopher Newport team during week 1.  It happens - option teams can dramatically improve as the players become more comfortable in the offense.  Then they lose a game they clearly should have won on a 4th and forever hail mary pass against Wesley.  99 times out of 100 they win that game. 

Those are their blemishes.  They absolutely steam rolled their first two E8 opponents.  I still maintain that had the Wesley hail mary not been completed, this matchup would have been between #19 Fisher and somewhere inside the top 15 Salisbury.  Instead Fisher was really in a minimal gain/lots to lose position heading into today. 

If they win?  Well Salisbury has 3 losses and clearly they aren't that great.  If they lose?  Well Salisbury is probably pretty decent after all.  Let's put them at like #23 and maybe Fisher even drops out of the top 25 altogether.  I just think Salisbury is a lot better than they have been getting credit for this year.  Fisher didn't lose to just a fair team today.

While I think Sals is a good team, this analysis may take a beating if Rowan holds onto their 17-3 lead over Wesley early in the 4th quarter.

And Rowan did. 

[Upstate]

I said earlier in the week that I'll believe Fisher winning vs Salisbury when I see it...

They're just an extremely well coached team and have Fisher's number...

[middlerelief]

I said earlier in the week that I'll believe Fisher winning vs Salisbury when I see it...

They're just an extremely well coached team and have Fisher's number...

I love the disclaimer at the bottom of your posts

[sjfcards]

Very frustrated with the result today, but as others have said, SU just has Fisher's number. I don't know what it is. I thought Fisher would win today, but SU made all the adjustments at halftime, and we're the better team. Now Fisher needs to win out for a bid.

[boobyhasgameyo]

It's not a comparative score thing.  I don't think Wesley is the same top 5-6 team they've been the past number of years that can go toe to toe with MUC and UMHB, so a loss to them (Sals) is a little different than in past years - less dismissible.  I get the heuristic you are trying to portray and Fisher and Sals are both far better than anyone on Hobart's schedule this year, but I also think both Wesley and Sals are not as strong as in prior years, so the loss to Sals (and let's not forget it went from 21-14 to 42-28, a 28-7 run by Sals before the last minute TD by SJF) isn't quite as easy to waive off as you are portraying, IMO. 

Who cares, though.  This "soft" or qualitative analysis probably won't matter come pool C time if you can win the rest of your games in which you will be favored surely.  Take care of business and you probably get a pool C (especially if W&J finishes strong and wins the PAC).  I'm just not there on the case your making here and don't think it impacts the rest of your year now that the game is over.

At least you have a pool C shot.  If Hobart blows a game down the stretch they're staying home (and deservedly so) which would be a waste of a fairly good team.

No, you really aren't understanding what I'm trying to say.  The voters would have been favorable to Salisbury had they defeated a then top 5 team and were 4-1 heading into today.  They would have been a top 15 team.  I don't think there is even any way to argue that.  If after the week after they beat the number 5 team they were ranked somewhere like 18th -  A couple of dominating E8 wins later and they would be top 15 entering today.  You feel it wouldn't be as justified, and that is where we disagree. 

[pumkinattack]

Perhaps the voters would have overrated the Wesley win, however the idea that beating a team that was early in highly ranked is specious and intellectually incorrect.  USC was preseason #1 last year, but in reality, a shi**y Ga Tech (I have season tickets and my father-in-law endowed an athletic scholarship, so I know Ga Tech well and can tell you they were/are suspect) pounded them out last year.  Beating a team is worth what they look like after the body of work is complete, or at a minimum halfway through a season. 

It seems like you're conflating poor voter judgement, which happens all the time, with the reality of the quality of a win or loss.  Wesley's good, but for anyone to push a team with a loss to a very good, but not great CNU, a win over a perhaps now unranked Wesley and some E8 wins (prior to today) into the top 15 would be questionable at best.  You want more credit for a loss to Salisbury based on thing that didn't happen and to also benefit from voters poor analysis and/or inertia where once a team is ranked a certain level they basically only love down for a loss. 

Wesley is good, but not top five and a win over Wedley should not be treated as beating a top five team.  Maybe voters would've pushed Sals up for beating them, but then they should revisit this week and any gain for beating SJF would at best be a wash with where you would/should push them back down by re-valuing the win over Wesley - which is all a hypothetical because they lost and have two losses.

[pumkinattack]

Here's an experiment.  Hobart is currently 6th in the country, so the collective voters think they're pretty good (I'd prefer somewhere between 10-15 and couldn't argue with anyone pushing them lower based on the 2013 body of work YTD). 

Replace either Wesley or Salisbury with Hobart in your argument.  Assume Hobart had either of their schedules and results YTD.  Would the argument seem the same?  (Blown out by UMBH, beaten by Rowan and close wins over Huntingdon, Widener and Sals or Losses to CNU and Wesley and some wins over E8 opponents but still two losses).  I'd submit in either case Hobart would probably be unranked.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I'm not saying if it's right or wrong but at the time had they won the Wesley game they would have been catapulted back up the rankings.  Hindsight is 20/20 and I agree Wesley is certainly not a top 5 team this year.  But pollsters wouldn't have known it then and Salisbury would have been higher.  They also would have done nothing the past 3 weeks to disprove the hypothetical higher ranking.  I would submit however that Salisbury being ranked let's say 18th, in my mind, is a much more accurate assessment of their talent than receiving 14 votes in the "others receiving votes" section.  Which is what they currently have. 

The manner in which they beat down Utica and Buff State say something to me.  Evidently it doesn't to you but Buff State has either won or been in the entire game in which they lost, losing by 6 points or less - save for two games.  A 41 point drubbing by Whitewater and a 28 point loss to Salisbury.  Same thing with Utica.  Nobody has beaten Utica as badly as what Salisbury did to them.  Then they went out and beat Fisher which hasn't been the easiest task this year since nobody else has done it. 

I really think Salisbury struggled the first few weeks of the season to get going breaking in all of those key starters.  Now it very much appears they are firing on all cylinders.  If they run roughshod through the rest of the E8 in blowout fashion will you change your opinion of them?  Or are you set in stone based on how they performed in weeks 1 and 2 of the season losing by 7 points and 3 points off of a hail mary respectively?   

[pumkinattack]

I think it's pretty rare for many 2 loss teams to be ranked from any region at this point in the season, let alone at the end of the year and Salisbury has to be behind both St Thomas and Wesley as far as I'm concerned.  Even if they run the table, given the perspective I've seen from the national collective "wisdom" even running the table probably doesn't get them past #20 at the end of the regular season.

I would also disagree with framing it as hindsight is 20/20, but rather that early season rankings or sorting of teams is all speculation and actual played games gives us data points to consider in the analysis.  It's still speculation in a limited intra region, 10 game schedule, but it's a mis characterization to make it sound like adjusting the order to reflect actual results is cheaper than preseason or early season rankings.

Not picking a fight and I know you're trying to make the case for both teams to be ranked, but it just ain't happening now and wouldn't be consistent with any reasonable polling process anyway.  It all doesn't matter if you're worried about ranking though, I'd submit the fact that when in 2011 you had two 20pt +losses in the regular season and then finished 8th in the country by beating JHU from the centennial and Del Val proves that getting a pool C and winning a couple of playoff games against any opponent not from a New England based league (and sometimes include those teams if you look at the joke of cortlands position in the final 2008 poll) will put you inside the top 20. 

Since the poll doesn't matter to pool C bids, you should really just focus of W&J, Ott and winning out.  That's the formula that will give you the shot to move up the final poll, which aside from winning in Salem is all of our most meaningful consolidation prize (at least for teams that have won their league recently enough or fans who take a longer historical view and also look into the future).

[boobyhasgameyo]

I'm actually not too worried about the pool C bid if Fisher wins out.  I think they would be the closest thing to a lock that there could be for it.  Little bit concerned that Fisher might drop a game to a team they are clearly better than since they have had a tendency to do that in years past even with their super teams.  If that happens then they would need a miraculous 2011 committee decision to put them in with two losses.  I sincerely doubt that would happen again.  Really it's a shame too because all I care about is Fisher making the playoffs.  I love seeing them compete against representatives against different conferences.  More times than not they come out on top and represent the E8 well.  Plus beating teams in the playoffs is the only thing in my life that gives me joy.  That's it.  Nothing else makes me happy. 

Wouldn't you love to see Fisher and Hobart play in like the second round of the playoffs where the winner gets to advance to the elite 8?  That would be fantastic. 

[sjfcards]

I'm actually not too worried about the pool C bid if Fisher wins out.  I think they would be the closest thing to a lock that there could be for it.  Little bit concerned that Fisher might drop a game to a team they are clearly better than since they have had a tendency to do that in years past even with their super teams.  If that happens then they would need a miraculous 2011 committee decision to put them in with two losses.  I sincerely doubt that would happen again.  Really it's a shame too because all I care about is Fisher making the playoffs.  I love seeing them compete against representatives against different conferences.  More times than not they come out on top and represent the E8 well.  Plus beating teams in the playoffs is the only thing in my life that gives me joy.  That's it.  Nothing else makes me happy. 

Wouldn't you love to see Fisher and Hobart play in like the second round of the playoffs where the winner gets to advance to the elite 8?  That would be fantastic.

That is the measuring stick for a successful season for sure. Bowl games are crap. I think Fisher will be in good shape for a pool C if they win out, but they were not helped by Otterbine and cortland losing yesterday. This was the scenario I really didn't want to see. Fisher losing the de facto E8 championship and having to avoid a loss down the stretch.

[middlerelief]

I'm actually not too worried about the pool C bid if Fisher wins out.  I think they would be the closest thing to a lock that there could be for it.  Little bit concerned that Fisher might drop a game to a team they are clearly better than since they have had a tendency to do that in years past even with their super teams.  If that happens then they would need a miraculous 2011 committee decision to put them in with two losses.  I sincerely doubt that would happen again.  Really it's a shame too because all I care about is Fisher making the playoffs.  I love seeing them compete against representatives against different conferences.  More times than not they come out on top and represent the E8 well.  Plus beating teams in the playoffs is the only thing in my life that gives me joy.  That's it.  Nothing else makes me happy. 

Wouldn't you love to see Fisher and Hobart play in like the second round of the playoffs where the winner gets to advance to the elite 8?  That would be fantastic.

That is the measuring stick for a successful season for sure. Bowl games are crap. I think Fisher will be in good shape for a pool C if they win out, but they were not helped by Otterbine and cortland losing yesterday. This was the scenario I really didn't want to see. Fisher losing the de facto E8 championship and having to avoid a loss down the stretch.

Agree very much with this

[pumkinattack]

Yes and no about Bart-SJF in the second round. How about in Salem for the Stagg Bowl?  I want as many NY State teams in the playoffs, so I'd be happy to see SJF get in, but I also like more mixed brackets (unless the committee wants to throw an undefeated hobart and one seed in an eastern oriented bracket-highly unlikely).  And I don't mean some Centennial and PAC, "southern" conference opponents (though I have a theory that JHU is the new W&J running over a weak conference, not unlike our LL, and wouldn't mind getting a game with them) but the coolest thing last year for Hobart was getting to see teams from VA, OH & MN and letting them get a trip to St Paul to play the #2 team in the country (even if I'm emotionally scarred today by that game).

[Bombers798891]

Man, I go away for a day and there's 20 posts on where Fisher would be ranked had Salisbury won a game more than a month ago? They'd be higher. Just like they'd be higher if Cortland hadn't lost to Buffalo State in Week 1, because then the Red Dragons would have been ranked instead of receiving one vote when Fisher beat them. So what?

[boobyhasgameyo]

Man, I go away for a day and there's 20 posts on where Fisher would be ranked had Salisbury won a game more than a month ago? They'd be higher. Just like they'd be higher if Cortland hadn't lost to Buffalo State in Week 1, because then the Red Dragons would have been ranked instead of receiving one vote when Fisher beat them. So what?

Nope, that was never my main argument.  I was saying it was a shame Salisbury wasn't ranked higher heading into the game because to me they are a top 20 level team.  I never went on a tirade about Fisher being disrespected in the top 25 and neither did anybody else.  Fisher will be just fine if they win out.  Starting with your Bombers