FB: Empire 8

[fisheralum91]

saxons- i dont think you are way off on some of your predictions, minus the Fisher and UC records.
I talked to Blaise last week, and he is more excited than ever this season.  I look for UC to have a really nice season.  Fisher- If they can shore up the qb position, i think you were close----8-2.  The 10-0 prediction was a fun homer pick that some will certainly jump on you for, but hey - this is what preseason banter is all about!

[drt]

AUSax, love the game by game prognostications.  Do you do it for any other teams?

[AUSaxons]

If you can't be optimistic in mid july...what's the point?! 

saxons- i dont think you are way off on some of your predictions, minus the Fisher and UC records.
I talked to Blaise last week, and he is more excited than ever this season.  I look for UC to have a really nice season.  Fisher- If they can shore up the qb position, i think you were close----8-2.  The 10-0 prediction was a fun homer pick that some will certainly jump on you for, but hey - this is what preseason banter is all about!

[fisheralum91]

Saxons- you get my point!!!
This is the fun part of wild expectation and homer loyalty...
We are all guilty of it!

[lewdogg11]

Game 1: vs. RPI

In what I see as a brilliant scheduling move by the Alfred coaching staff, RPI is the opener for the 2011 campaign. RPI is coming of a 6-4 season which saw a high in a one point win over the Saxons last season, though also several lows including being blown out by Utica and Fisher, a loss to 3-7 WPI and a loss to a less then stellar St. Lawrence team. This is also a team who loses their longtime head coach, and will be in their first game under a new head coach. They return their best player, Mike Hermann, a dual threat QB. The reason I believe this is brilliant scheduling is that you want your first game to ideally be one against a team who's a class below you, and RPI is probably a class below Alfred (that doesn't discredit the win, but Alfred was probably a better team last year and probably will be this year). But the brilliance of it is because this is a team that beat the Saxons last season, they will come firing on all cylinders for this one, and will shut down RPI. The run defense will have a field day, and the running game on offense will flourish. Prediction: Alfred 31 RPI 10

Ok, so I understand this is just a homer making homer statements, but come on now.

2010
RPI 27
Alfred 24

2008
RPI 34
Alfred 31

2010
Alfred 10-3
RPI 6-4

2009
Alfred 8-2
RPI 5-4

2008
Alfred 7-4
RPI 8-2

2007
Alfred 8-3
RPI 8-2

2006
Alfred 8-3
RPI 7-3

Has RPI had 2 'down' years the last 2 years?  Yeah, they have.  Are they 'a class below Alfred'?  I don't think so pal.  Not to mention, you automatically think that a new coaching staff means that they will be down again, potentially even worse? 

What if the new coaching staff is stellar?  Let's face it, you have NO idea what RPI will bring this year, nor do I or anyone else.  And if you were being truthful here, as opposed to being homer-ish, this game scares the living daylights out of you. 

If RPI comes in and mops the field with Alfred in this game, it could scar them for the entire season.  Yes, it's out of conference, but if Alfred is thinking that they are going to be a force then get beat up to a 'lower-class' team AT HOME in game 1, it could screw up your whole season.

Your score prediction could still hold true, or it could be flipped, or it could mirror the last 2 meetings and be a nail biter, but to consider Alfred being a class above RPI's program is pompous and ridiculous really.

[Jonny Utah]

Game 1: vs. RPI

In what I see as a brilliant scheduling move by the Alfred coaching staff, RPI is the opener for the 2011 campaign. RPI is coming of a 6-4 season which saw a high in a one point win over the Saxons last season, though also several lows including being blown out by Utica and Fisher, a loss to 3-7 WPI and a loss to a less then stellar St. Lawrence team. This is also a team who loses their longtime head coach, and will be in their first game under a new head coach. They return their best player, Mike Hermann, a dual threat QB. The reason I believe this is brilliant scheduling is that you want your first game to ideally be one against a team who's a class below you, and RPI is probably a class below Alfred (that doesn't discredit the win, but Alfred was probably a better team last year and probably will be this year). But the brilliance of it is because this is a team that beat the Saxons last season, they will come firing on all cylinders for this one, and will shut down RPI. The run defense will have a field day, and the running game on offense will flourish. Prediction: Alfred 31 RPI 10

Ok, so I understand this is just a homer making homer statements, but come on now.

2010
RPI 27
Alfred 24

2008
RPI 34
Alfred 31

2010
Alfred 10-3
RPI 6-4

2009
Alfred 8-2
RPI 5-4

2008
Alfred 7-4
RPI 8-2

2007
Alfred 8-3
RPI 8-2

2006
Alfred 8-3
RPI 7-3

Has RPI had 2 'down' years the last 2 years?  Yeah, they have.  Are they 'a class below Alfred'?  I don't think so pal.  Not to mention, you automatically think that a new coaching staff means that they will be down again, potentially even worse? 

What if the new coaching staff is stellar?  Let's face it, you have NO idea what RPI will bring this year, nor do I or anyone else.  And if you were being truthful here, as opposed to being homer-ish, this game scares the living daylights out of you. 

If RPI comes in and mops the field with Alfred in this game, it could scar them for the entire season.  Yes, it's out of conference, but if Alfred is thinking that they are going to be a force then get beat up to a 'lower-class' team AT HOME in game 1, it could screw up your whole season.

Your score prediction could still hold true, or it could be flipped, or it could mirror the last 2 meetings and be a nail biter, but to consider Alfred being a class above RPI's program is pompous and ridiculous really.

You have to go back to 1982 to find the last time Alfred beat Ithaca at Ithaca, but hey, I don't see anything wrong with making a 38-10 Alfred over Ithaca prediction in 2011.  Alfreds program is probably 2 classes better than Ithacas program.

[AUSaxons]

If you saw the game in 2010 you would know that the only reason Alfred lost that game is because they averaged like 19 yards a punt in swirling wind. I don't think anyone who saw that game could possibly come away w/ the impression that RPI was the better team, even despite the win (and I'm not taking the credit away from them, all i'm saying is one game doesnt tell the whole story).

When I say "class below alfred" i am not talking about historically. As Utes pointed out historically Ithaca>Alfred and it isnt close. This past year and next year Alfred has been/will be a class above IC. The same will be true of RPI.

I expect your new staff to be stellar, but game one under a new staff against the best team from the east last year (i know that's arguable but i think generally the team that goes to Alliance should be considered the East's best) is not a good recipe for success. Especially when you don't have a hell of a lot to build on from last year. I am not indicting RPI as a program, but the fact is they were a 6-4 team last season who got stomped by Utica and Fisher, lost to WPI and lost to a St Lawrence team that didnt exactly light the world on fire. It took a last second field goal to defeat lowly Merchant Maritime. 4 of your 6 wins came by 3 points or less, including three wins by FG as time expired. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with that, a win is a win, but in terms of predicting next year you have to take it into account.

RPI could just as easily have been 3-7 last year instead of 6-4.  This is a fact that you have to consider when predicting. A 6-4 LL team with a deceptive record, vs a 10-3 squad who stomped on Ithaca, beat Fisher and Cortland comfortably and was the East's representative in Alliance. I will give you one thing though, if RPI did come in and mop the floor w/ Alfred it may very well destroy our entire season.  So, in conclusion, my prediction seems a lot less "homerish" then your reply. This game does not scare the living daylights out of me, and RPI will not mop the floor w/ Alfred. If they do i will perma-ban myself from this board, I'm very confident in an Alfred win. I think 31-10 is an appropriate prediction.

Game 1: vs. RPI

In what I see as a brilliant scheduling move by the Alfred coaching staff, RPI is the opener for the 2011 campaign. RPI is coming of a 6-4 season which saw a high in a one point win over the Saxons last season, though also several lows including being blown out by Utica and Fisher, a loss to 3-7 WPI and a loss to a less then stellar St. Lawrence team. This is also a team who loses their longtime head coach, and will be in their first game under a new head coach. They return their best player, Mike Hermann, a dual threat QB. The reason I believe this is brilliant scheduling is that you want your first game to ideally be one against a team who's a class below you, and RPI is probably a class below Alfred (that doesn't discredit the win, but Alfred was probably a better team last year and probably will be this year). But the brilliance of it is because this is a team that beat the Saxons last season, they will come firing on all cylinders for this one, and will shut down RPI. The run defense will have a field day, and the running game on offense will flourish. Prediction: Alfred 31 RPI 10

Ok, so I understand this is just a homer making homer statements, but come on now.

2010
RPI 27
Alfred 24

2008
RPI 34
Alfred 31

2010
Alfred 10-3
RPI 6-4

2009
Alfred 8-2
RPI 5-4

2008
Alfred 7-4
RPI 8-2

2007
Alfred 8-3
RPI 8-2

2006
Alfred 8-3
RPI 7-3

Has RPI had 2 'down' years the last 2 years?  Yeah, they have.  Are they 'a class below Alfred'?  I don't think so pal.  Not to mention, you automatically think that a new coaching staff means that they will be down again, potentially even worse? 

What if the new coaching staff is stellar?  Let's face it, you have NO idea what RPI will bring this year, nor do I or anyone else.  And if you were being truthful here, as opposed to being homer-ish, this game scares the living daylights out of you. 

If RPI comes in and mops the field with Alfred in this game, it could scar them for the entire season.  Yes, it's out of conference, but if Alfred is thinking that they are going to be a force then get beat up to a 'lower-class' team AT HOME in game 1, it could screw up your whole season.

Your score prediction could still hold true, or it could be flipped, or it could mirror the last 2 meetings and be a nail biter, but to consider Alfred being a class above RPI's program is pompous and ridiculous really.

[Bombers798891]

2010
Alfred 10-3
RPI 6-4

2009
Alfred 8-2
RPI 5-4

2008
Alfred 7-4
RPI 8-2

2007
Alfred 8-3
RPI 8-2

2006
Alfred 8-3
RPI 7-3

E8's OOC record from 2006-2010: 117-44 (.726)

LL's OOC record from 2006-2010: 62-61 (.504)

E8 leads the H2H series in that time 24-14 (.631)

RPI's won the last two against Alfred, and nothing can change that. And the OOC records doesn't take into account SOS for those games, but it seems like a difference that large speaks to something regarding the two conferences and that has to color the perception. Alfred's put up a better overall record over the last five years, while playing in a much tougher conference, and with a similarly underwhelming OOC slate . I don't think there's anything wrong with thinking Alfred is better than RPI right now as a program.

I think calling AU "a class above" RPI is kind of a insulting way to put it however, especially considering they beat you last year. It's not like we're talking about St. Lawrence playing at Ithaca here. If Alfred goes in thinking that RPI is a class below them, they could absolutely lose to them (again). It isn't like the Saxons haven't laid eggs on their home turf recently (Rochester, Ursinus)

In fact, I think Alfred's doing the exact opposite of what you suggest. Rather than open the season up against a team like Widener, Mass-Dartmouth, Ursinus or Thiel, they're going for something a little more challenging. Instead of giving the team a game they can sleepwalk through and (usually) not get burned on, the coaching staff has said, "Right out of the gate, we better be sharp, because this team will beat us if we don't bring everything we have."

All that said, I do expect Alfred to win. Something like 28-13 feels right to me.

[Jonny Utah]

If you saw the game in 2010 you would know that the only reason Alfred lost that game is because they averaged like 19 yards a punt in swirling wind.

The only reason?  Championship teams don't lose to RPI and Rochester during the regular season (2009 I mean).  Maybe Alfred played over their head in the other big games and SJF and Cortland overlooked them?  

There have been teams like 2009 Alfred before.  Many of them become average the next year.  Other teams can figure them out, and some teams change their entire schemes to their new or leaving personel (See Ithaca 2006) in order to challange conference rivals for a playoff spot the next year.

But hey, I like your confidence and it should be a good season.

[lewdogg11]

I have no issues with your prediction.  I'm fine with it actually.  I just don't think Alfred's success from a year ago, and RPI's down year, would classify Alfred going into this year as being in a different 'class'.  Going into any given year, I would put Alfred, RPI, Ithaca, Fisher, Union, Hobart, and Springfield into the same 'class'.  Everyone else is a class below.  You can't tell me that year in and year out, any one of those teams could win their given conference.  Union was 2-7 last year.  In no way would I classify them any lower than RPI or Hobart coming into this year, because these programs all reload.  If anything, Springfield is a perfect example, because they either have great years, or crappy years, but you can not discount them going into any season.

[lewdogg11]

2010
Alfred 10-3
RPI 6-4

2009
Alfred 8-2
RPI 5-4

2008
Alfred 7-4
RPI 8-2

2007
Alfred 8-3
RPI 8-2

2006
Alfred 8-3
RPI 7-3

E8's OOC record from 2006-2010: 117-44 (.726)

LL's OOC record from 2006-2010: 62-61 (.504)

E8 leads the H2H series in that time 24-14 (.631)

RPI's won the last two against Alfred, and nothing can change that. And the OOC records doesn't take into account SOS for those games, but it seems like a difference that large speaks to something regarding the two conferences and that has to color the perception. Alfred's put up a better overall record over the last five years, while playing in a much tougher conference, and with a similarly underwhelming OOC slate . I don't think there's anything wrong with thinking Alfred is better than RPI right now as a program.

I think calling AU "a class above" RPI is kind of a insulting way to put it however, especially considering they beat you last year. It's not like we're talking about St. Lawrence playing at Ithaca here. If Alfred goes in thinking that RPI is a class below them, they could absolutely lose to them (again). It isn't like the Saxons haven't laid eggs on their home turf recently (Rochester, Ursinus)

In fact, I think Alfred's doing the exact opposite of what you suggest. Rather than open the season up against a team like Widener, Mass-Dartmouth, Ursinus or Thiel, they're going for something a little more challenging. Instead of giving the team a game they can sleepwalk through and (usually) not get burned on, the coaching staff has said, "Right out of the gate, we better be sharp, because this team will beat us if we don't bring everything we have."

All that said, I do expect Alfred to win. Something like 28-13 feels right to me.

I agree with you and I think this is more fitting.

[Bombers798891]

You have to go back to 1982 to find the last time Alfred beat Ithaca at Ithaca, but hey, I don't see anything wrong with making a 38-10 Alfred over Ithaca prediction in 2011.  Alfreds program is probably 2 classes better than Ithacas program.

Ouch. The 10 sounds about right. But 38 allowed?

Ithaca allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards in the conference last year and they return the top cornerback duo in the conference, and a great LB core. Yeah, I know Alfred lit into them last year, but the Saxons have never played especially well offensively on that thick grass.

Alfred 24, Ithaca 7

[maxpower]

Yeah, I know Alfred lit into them last year, but the Saxons have never played especially well offensively on that thick grass.

Someone tell whoever the new Ernie is to put the mower away that week.





[I hope this message doesn't spur an e-mail from some backup FB from Fisher named Ernie saying "WHY ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ME?" like the last time JQV made this joke...]

[Bombers798891]

Yeah, I know Alfred lit into them last year, but the Saxons have never played especially well offensively on that thick grass.

Someone tell whoever the new Ernie is to put the mower away that week.





[I hope this message doesn't spur an e-mail from some backup FB from Fisher named Ernie saying "WHY ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ME?" like the last time JQV made this joke...]

With the weather we have in Ithaca right now, the field will probably be rock hard and Alfred will win by 60...

[Doid23]

If you saw the game in 2010 you would know that the only reason Alfred lost that game is because they averaged like 19 yards a punt in swirling wind.

I'm sorry, but I've got to call you on that line. So punting is no longer part of a team? Special teams don't count? And was the wind only affecting Alfred? RPI figured out how to win the game, and not by a fluke 2-0 score.