FB: Empire 8

[AUSaxons]

Can you honestly say that you believe SJF and Cortland "overlooked" Alfred? It was Fishers chance to really put the season away, had they won that game I think they end up running the table and getting the #1. Cortland was in the NCAA Round of 16, no competent team would overlook anyone who could get to that point, especially someone who beat Ithaca so much more convincingly then they did. Teams that go unbeaten in the E8 conference, make it to Alliance and return 3/4ths of the team that got that far don't usually end up average. I never said anything bad about RPI's program, but in the same way that Ithaca is not probably gonna be better then AU next year, RPI probably won't be either. If you think differently that's absolutely ok, but I dont think it's as if my statements are completely unfounded. I think most people probably would agree with them.

If you saw the game in 2010 you would know that the only reason Alfred lost that game is because they averaged like 19 yards a punt in swirling wind.

The only reason?  Championship teams don't lose to RPI and Rochester during the regular season (2009 I mean).  Maybe Alfred played over their head in the other big games and SJF and Cortland overlooked them?  

There have been teams like 2009 Alfred before.  Many of them become average the next year.  Other teams can figure them out, and some teams change their entire schemes to their new or leaving personel (See Ithaca 2006) in order to challange conference rivals for a playoff spot the next year.

But hey, I like your confidence and it should be a good season.

[AUSaxons]

Ithaca had a good defense last year, but they did give up 31 last season (as you alluded to). Plus, as I highlighted in my prediction I think that by this point Ithaca will be 4-4 or so and fairly discouraged at being one of IC's worst teams (and perhaps even looking ahead a little bit to Cortland to atleast say they won the rivalry game) against a 8-0 squad who I believe will be putting the finishing touches on a #1 seed. Not to mention, not having a competent offense changes how a defense plays. I even said that I feel like the game will be closer then the score,  when I think of how this game will play out I think it'll be something like 24-3 going into the fourth quarter and the defense will just give up at the end. But we will certainly see!

You have to go back to 1982 to find the last time Alfred beat Ithaca at Ithaca, but hey, I don't see anything wrong with making a 38-10 Alfred over Ithaca prediction in 2011.  Alfreds program is probably 2 classes better than Ithacas program.

Ouch. The 10 sounds about right. But 38 allowed?

Ithaca allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards in the conference last year and they return the top cornerback duo in the conference, and a great LB core. Yeah, I know Alfred lit into them last year, but the Saxons have never played especially well offensively on that thick grass.

Alfred 24, Ithaca 7

[maxpower]

I think that by this point Ithaca will be 4-4 or so and fairly discouraged at being one of IC's worst teams (and perhaps even looking ahead a little bit to Cortland to atleast say they won the rivalry game) against a 8-0 squad who I believe will be putting the finishing touches on a #1 seed. . . . when I think of how this game will play out I think it'll be something like 24-3 going into the fourth quarter and the defense will just give up at the end.

Jeepers you have said a lot here my friend. You obviously never played, to make so many bold, no-chance-to-profit statements. I mean, I never played either, but... wow!

[Jonny Utah]

Can you honestly say that you believe SJF and Cortland "overlooked" Alfred? It was Fishers chance to really put the season away, had they won that game I think they end up running the table and getting the #1. Cortland was in the NCAA Round of 16, no competent team would overlook anyone who could get to that point, especially someone who beat Ithaca so much more convincingly then they did. Teams that go unbeaten in the E8 conference, make it to Alliance and return 3/4ths of the team that got that far don't usually end up average. I never said anything bad about RPI's program, but in the same way that Ithaca is not probably gonna be better then AU next year, RPI probably won't be either. If you think differently that's absolutely ok, but I dont think it's as if my statements are completely unfounded. I think most people probably would agree with them.

If you saw the game in 2010 you would know that the only reason Alfred lost that game is because they averaged like 19 yards a punt in swirling wind.

The only reason?  Championship teams don't lose to RPI and Rochester during the regular season (2009 I mean).  Maybe Alfred played over their head in the other big games and SJF and Cortland overlooked them?  

There have been teams like 2009 Alfred before.  Many of them become average the next year.  Other teams can figure them out, and some teams change their entire schemes to their new or leaving personel (See Ithaca 2006) in order to challange conference rivals for a playoff spot the next year.

But hey, I like your confidence and it should be a good season.

Any team that loses to Rochester or RPI in the 2009 season has a good shot of being average the next year, especially seeing Alfred's football history.

I think they will go 7-3, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 6-4 or 5-5.  Neither would I be shocked if Ithaca had those records.

[Knightstalker]

Ithaca had a good defense last year, but they did give up 31 last season (as you alluded to). Plus, as I highlighted in my prediction I think that by this point Ithaca will be 4-4 or so and fairly discouraged at being one of IC's worst teams (and perhaps even looking ahead a little bit to Cortland to atleast say they won the rivalry game) against a 8-0 squad who I believe will be putting the finishing touches on a #1 seed. Not to mention, not having a competent offense changes how a defense plays. I even said that I feel like the game will be closer then the score,  when I think of how this game will play out I think it'll be something like 24-3 going into the fourth quarter and the defense will just give up at the end. But we will certainly see!

You have to go back to 1982 to find the last time Alfred beat Ithaca at Ithaca, but hey, I don't see anything wrong with making a 38-10 Alfred over Ithaca prediction in 2011.  Alfreds program is probably 2 classes better than Ithacas program.

Ouch. The 10 sounds about right. But 38 allowed?

Ithaca allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards in the conference last year and they return the top cornerback duo in the conference, and a great LB core. Yeah, I know Alfred lit into them last year, but the Saxons have never played especially well offensively on that thick grass.

Alfred 24, Ithaca 7

Undefeated and locking up a #1 seed?  Way to completely ignore two conferences that are just as strong as the LL and E?.  KS thinks that possibly a MAC or NJAC team may have something to say about the #1 seed.

[fisheralum91]

I think that it is great that we are finally talking football!
Hell yes!
If there are any Fisher guys out there with some insight as to the team this year- any new info would be great!

[AUKaz00]

I go away for a long weekend and football talk breaks out on the E8PP?!?  

While I desperately hope that AUSax' predictions come true, Pep and I have knowingly acknowledged that last year very well may be the high water mark for Saxon football.  After the past two years, anything short of the NCAAs will seem a disappointment, yet I'd imagine Alfred is more likely to miss out this year than make it a third straight year.  The team certainly remains stacked and should win its fair share of games, but goofy things always happen each year and without a truly East bracket it's impossible to tell who the "best" team from our region was last year.  Del Val lost by an equally depressing score at Alliance (but at least we scored a TD!).  At this point I'd love it if our trip to Butterfield meant something so that I can wear the cow outfit and hopefully see the Saxons victorious on South Hill with my own eyes for the first time.

But until then, I'm looking forward to meeting AUSax at a tailgate sometime, share a couple burgers and drink deep of the same purple-colored kool aid!

On Saxon Warriors!!!

[gordonmann]

KS thinks that possibly a MAC or NJAC team may have something to say about the #1 seed.

The MAC will be a total toss up this year.  Del Val graduated all but two starters on offense and they play right guard and tight end (a platoon position that mostly blocks).  Several teams graduated quarterbacks, including Leb Val, FDU and King's. Other teams graduated top play makers on at least one side of the ball (Kleinfelter at Lycoming, Favinger at Widener).  If I had to guess who will win the MAC right now, I'd go with Wilkes.  The conference winner could go 8-2 or 9-1 but not be particularly strong.

So the NJAC may have to stop the inexorable rise of Alfred.

Oh, and plus K to all for talking football when its 120 degrees outside.

[Ralph Turner]

KS thinks that possibly a MAC or NJAC team may have something to say about the #1 seed.

The MAC will be a total toss up this year.  Del Val graduated all but two starters on offense and they play right guard and tight end (a platoon position that mostly blocks).  Several teams graduated quarterbacks, including Leb Val, FDU and King's. Other teams graduated top play makers on at least one side of the ball (Kleinfelter at Lycoming, Favinger at Widener).  If I had to guess who will win the MAC right now, I'd go with Wilkes.  The conference winner could go 8-2 or 9-1 but not be particularly strong.

So the NJAC may have to stop the inexorable rise of Alfred.

Oh, and plus K to all for talking football when its 120 degrees outside.

120 degrees outside!

Why, that means it is time for 2-a-days in Texas!  Let's strap them on!

I am one of those old geezers who was playing football before Gatorade!

And, Frank Uible probably invented salt tablets!

[AUSaxons]

Some of you are taking what i'm saying way too far to heart. This is how I see the season playing out. I'm trying to give you as detailed a look at the season as I possibly can, ofcourse I'm going to say some things that are bold......a lot of "bold" things happen over the course of a season. I'm actually kind of shocked that there's so many people who have a problem with what I said. I mean, they were bold perhaps and my statements were not sugar coated, but the actual predictions themselves I dont believe are outlandish at all given the teams in question.

Max and Johnny, I guess my only response to what you said is to please go look at Alfreds schedule and name me 3 games you think they lose and why. I have my 4 for Ithaca at that point (Salisbury, Fisher, Springfield, Utica). I'm taking a team that won the E8 outright and returns 3/4ths of their starters over anyone on that sched besides MAYBE Salisbury, who was quite good last year. I don't see why Alfred shouldnt be the favorite in every other matchup going into it at this point in the preseason. They return the vast majority of their D and all but 1 skill guy on O. There's holes, everyone has holes, but looking at every team today Alfred is the logical presumptive favorite.

In response to Knightstalker, I didn't ignore anyone. If AU goes unbeaten (and you all have to keep in mind that when I predict the landscape it's ALL based off of AU running the table) then any unbeaten NJAC team probably wont be our #1 due to the SOS issues of having severely limited OOC competition. In terms of the MAC as Gordon alluded to Del Val loses a lot and I don't see anyone else from the MAC running the table. Same with the LL.

I understand it's hard to make such detailed predictions, but it's not like every year is a crapshoot as some of you make it out to be. Though my predictions are bold, I believe my logic to be sound. I guess a couple of you disagree, that's fine, i'd personally love to see your predictions. I think everyone should write some sort of prediction post at some point....imagine the discussion it would generate! Anyways, +k to all involved in this thread for reviving the E8 topic during a dead period!

[pg04]

I wish I could even find the will to type so much up as you did AU, kudos to adding some color to the board!

[maxpower]

I am one of those old geezers who was playing football before Gatorade!

Ralph Turner is impressed at the first taste-testing of "Gator-Ade" in 1960, designed to fill one with pith, motorize the nerves, and limberize the muscles!

[dahlby]

Brings back memories of college ball 2- a-days in South Dakota during the 60's.  Very hot and humid.

What was that liquid (yellowish color) that they used to make us drink back then? It was always terrible nd we used to spit it out when the coaches were not looking.

[AUKaz00]

I think everyone should write some sort of prediction post at some point.

I'll take a stab at the Alfred season as I see it in July, but take a slightly different tack by listing what chance I think Alfred has of winning each game.

RPI - Home opener, vengence motivation, and Engineer personnel question mark. 75%
St. Lawrence - Another home game, probably not as close as last year on the grass at Leckonby. 90%
Springfield - Solid defense with that dastardly triple-option. 60%
@ Fisher - Does O'Brien have one more return TD left in him? 40%
Hartwick - Back home against a Hawks team that is still trying to find itself. 90%
Salisbury - A better version of Springfield? 55%
@ Frostburg - Should be one-sided, but our last trip this far south ended poorly at W&L. 80%
@ Rochester - Will Alfred come out as flat as they did in 2010? 60%
@ Ithaca - Until I see it with my own eyes, I won't believe it's possible on South Hill. 40%
Utica - A year better, but this is senior saterday. 60%

Add it all up and you get 6.5 wins.  So, a 7-3 season is emminently possible.  Would I consider Alfred the odds-on favorite to win the E8?  Yes, but with a greater chance that some other team will win the title and the AQ.

[Jonny Utah]

Max and Johnny, I guess my only response to what you said is to please go look at Alfreds schedule and name me 3 games you think they lose and why.

Alfred lost to RPI and Rochester last year.  That means that they could have lost to every team they played last year.

That doesn not mean I think Alfred should have gone 0-10, nor does it mean that they they will go 10-0 or 0-10 next year.  Sure if you look at it game by game, you can say they might be favored to win every one of those games.  But that doesn't usually happen, in fact it rarely happens, especially if you are Alfred, or 235 of the other d3 football programs out there, many of whom did not lose to teams with losing records last year.

So no, your logic isn't really that sound.  If Alfred can't beat the worst two teams on their schedule last year, what makes you think they can beat everyone on their schedule next year?