FB: Empire 8

[SJFF82]

(Potentially annoying comment: While spelling it incorrectly, I'm at least glad that someone is using the word literal correctly.)

Alright, I posted basically the same thing on the MIAC board. 

I confess I know absolutely nothing about St. John Fisher other than that I correctly picked them to be playing in this game.   In generals, what type of team is UST facing this weekend at Palmer Field?  Do you guys throw (I assume not very much with a 3rd string quarterback)? Is your 1st string guy gonna be back at qb (there was some discussion of him playing "slasher"; does that mean he's playing "Ray Lewis?")?

More importantly, what is your defense like?  There are repeated comments that UST will throw 4 picks...  Is your run defense stout?  Will UST be forced to throw?  While I'm obviously biased, I think UST could have beat Monmouth without throwing four times, let alone being in a situation where they'd throw four picks... will SJF's defensive strength (which appears to be air takeaways based on the SJF posters comments) even come into play?

Next, has SJF played any weather games this year?  If so, how did they do?  If not, is the team built to succeed in a weather game? (FYI: Weather report for Saturday is 35 and light snow)

Finally, who or what is St. John Fisher?

Thank you, I'll hang up and listen.

+k

[SJFF82]

I guess we will find out all of this and more on SatErday.
You west coast guys will have a new appreciation of East region teams me thinks...

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

Nothing before '08 is relevant at St. Thomas as that is when Caruso got here and started recruiting and bringing in D1 and D2 transfers.

oh....so what does that make your team GPA then?

[SJFF82]

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

I agree that UST and SJF (and really all the teams remaining) are in the same league, but I disagree that UST hasn't done enough to warrant a high national ranking.  They went to the quarterfinals each of the last two years and returned a high percentage of the players off of those teams.  Only four teams have made the quarterfinals three straight years (UWW, Mount Union, Wesley and UST).  The other three teams (and North Cental) started the season ranked ahead of UST, but Wesley lost, so UST jumped them.  UST hasn't done anything during the season that would warrant them dropping, their closest game being a 10 point win over a team that's gone to the semis 2 of 4 years, and dominated a deep conference (though without another really dominant team this year).  I really don't see an argument for having them below #4 or #5, which isn't really all that different from #3.

The great thing about D3 is it doesn't matter and in the end it is really irrelevant.  Either team can win this week.  Sounds like SJF has a ball-hawking defense that could cause problems for UST.  UST has a defense that can cause problems if SJF is forced to drive the field.  In the end it all comes down to execution, not computers, predictions, or rankings.

good post.

[SJFF82]

The conference-by-conference records are updated weekly in the postseason:

http://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs#9

What I'd love to see, and I know this a virtual impossibility given your guys' workload, so I'm just throwing it out there as a sort of "I'd love it if Olivia Wilde were madly in love with me" thing, is a points scored/allowed breakdown. Be interesting to see.

Would also love to see a breakdown of records for teams within a conference. I am sure MUC and UWW pump up their conferences numbers. In the WIAC how much of the winning is St. Johns vs everyone else? (This is not a knock on everyone else, I am honestly curious).

Did breakdowns for a couple more conferences:

E8:
Ithaca        2-4 Losses to Cortland St, RPI, Union, and Curry
SJF             8-3 Losses to Delaware Valley, Mount Union (2)
Springfield 1-1 Loss to SJF
Hartwick    0-1 Loss to Curry
Alfred         2-2 Losses to Albright and Mount Union
Salisbury    2-0 (results while in ACFC excluded)

OAC:
Mount Union         48-6 Losses to Rowan, SJU, UMHB, UWW (3)
Ohio Northern       4-3  Losses to Mount Union (2), North Central
John Carroll           3-1  Loss to Mount Union
Baldwin-Wallace   1-1   Loss to Wheaton
Capital                  4-3   Losses to Mount Union (2), UWW
Otterbein              0-1   Loss to Franklin

WIAC:
Whitewater      29-3 Losses to Mount Union (3)
Stout                 0-1  Loss to SJU
Stevens Point    1-3  Losses to Wartburg, SJU (2)
LaCrosse           3-5  Losses to Central, Coe, Mount Union, Linfield, UWW
Eau Claire          1-1 Loss to Bethel

Great stuff. The WIAC was more balanced than I had thought. I expected SJU to have the lions share of the wins, but did not think everyone else would get to 14. Mostly because some really good teams would miss the playoffs when they lost to SJU when they were really rolling.

My favorite thing about this weekend is that Fisher is playing a WIAC team. "The Sweet Season" is one of my favorite books, and even though Fisher is not playing SJU, it is still cool to see another team from that book. I have been trying to get out to a UST/SJU game for a few years to see what that atmosphere is like.

Being from Cortland, and having a family of C-State alums (plus an IC grad as a wife), I love me a good rivalry game. SJU is supposed to be great on any weekend. Someday.

that'll be next Saterday Cards....

[pg04]

I actually think he may think that St. Thomas is in the WIAC ( since it is at least the second time he said it), so to clarify, St. Thomas is in the MIAC not the WIAC

[SJFF82]

I actually think he may think that St. Thomas is in the WIAC ( since it is at least the second time he said it), so to clarify, St. Thomas is in the MIAC not the WIAC

yeah, caught that too the first couple times and finally decided to point it out when I 'found' a way to  kill 2 birds with one stone and get a dig in at UST....

[SJFF82]

sjf, I will give you my take.  They are young on offense, but the Fresh? QB has done a nice job this year and the Soph RB is pretty good.  Del Val relies more on the defense and they are pretty good.  They don't try to outscore people, but look to take advantage of the opponents mistakes.  I saw them handle Leb Val pretty easily and they have scored points in the last couple of games, but that is not normal.  If Fisher makes mistakes they could get blown out.  They also have a speedy receiver who they occasionally run the wildcat with.  Having seen both teams play I think that Del Val is slightly better than Fisher if Kramer plays and clearly better if he does not.  The Fisher d will have to keep Del Val in check and if both teams play a clean game this will be a good one.  I have not made my pick yet, but I am leaning to Del Val.  Would love to see the game, but I have an engagement in Dover this weekend.

I believe this will be a close game (win or lose) at worst for SJF, and a 14-20pt win at best.

....with or w/o Kramer.


p.s.   this post and its poster will self-destruct on Saterday at approx 3pm should its contents fail to prove accurate.

well I usually dont toot my own horn, partly because I am usually wrong.....but......

[bleedpurple]

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

I agree that UST and SJF (and really all the teams remaining) are in the same league, but I disagree that UST hasn't done enough to warrant a high national ranking.  They went to the quarterfinals each of the last two years and returned a high percentage of the players off of those teams.  Only four teams have made the quarterfinals three straight years (UWW, Mount Union, Wesley and UST).  The other three teams (and North Cental) started the season ranked ahead of UST, but Wesley lost, so UST jumped them.  UST hasn't done anything during the season that would warrant them dropping, their closest game being a 10 point win over a team that's gone to the semis 2 of 4 years, and dominated a deep conference (though without another really dominant team this year).  I really don't see an argument for having them below #4 or #5, which isn't really all that different from #3.

The great thing about D3 is it doesn't matter and in the end it is really irrelevant.  Either team can win this week.  Sounds like SJF has a ball-hawking defense that could cause problems for UST.  UST has a defense that can cause problems if SJF is forced to drive the field.  In the end it all comes down to execution, not computers, predictions, or rankings.

We are in agreement on my main point, which is that St. Thomas is not in a different league than St. John Fisher and you added another good one in pointing out that includes the other remaining teams as well.  I know a team can rise as other teams around them are knocked off.  I am not saying St. Thomas doesn't deserve a high national ranking.  I really don't know where they should be ranked and that's my point as much as anything.  They are relatively new to the scene.  They probably belong in a fairly fluid group of 5 or 6 teams that could shuffle from 3 to 8.  Someone has to be #3. And we are in FULL agreement that it is great we will find out from what happens on the field! 

[bleedpurple]

I guess we will find out all of this and more on SatErday.
You west coast guys will have a new appreciation of East region teams me thinks...

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

Nothing before '08 is relevant at St. Thomas as that is when Caruso got here and started recruiting and bringing in D1 and D2 transfers.

I agree that nothing before '08 is particularly relevant.  I mostly included that year to demonstrate that point exactly- St. Thomas is relatively new to the national scene. 

[tommiegun]

I guess we will find out all of this and more on SatErday.
You west coast guys will have a new appreciation of East region teams me thinks...

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

Nothing before '08 is relevant at St. Thomas as that is when Caruso got here and started recruiting and bringing in D1 and D2 transfers.

oh....so what does that make your team GPA then?

I have no idea; my guess is many of the Johnnie posters would be willing to take a stab at that one, though.   

My guess is its pretty high - St. Thomas is a good, but not great, school academically and like most D3 schools, the athletes don't get breaks.  Many of the transfers came in for the education that they didn't think they could get at a D1 or D2 program.

[stormyfuture]

I was trying to word my post neutrally, given the somewhat harsh early banter over this game, but from everything i've been able to glean, I think St. John Fisher has a solid chance to win.  I never thought too much about it before now, but reading between the lines on my post (can one read between the lines in his own post in retrospect?), I guess I believe St. Thomas being ranked #3 nationally is a pretty generous ranking for a team that's really not accomplished too much on the national stage:

St. Thomas:
In '07:   2-8
In '08:  7-3 did not qualify for the playoffs
In '09:  11-2 Eliminated by a Linfield team (11 point loss) that turned around and lost to UWW by 10.
In '10:  12-1. Eliminated in QF by a Bethel team that turned around the next week and lost by 20 to Mount Union.

In my opinion, there's not huge evidence (any?) to suggest St. Thomas is in a different league than St. John Fisher (or for that matter Kean or Salisbury either!).

I agree that UST and SJF (and really all the teams remaining) are in the same league, but I disagree that UST hasn't done enough to warrant a high national ranking.  They went to the quarterfinals each of the last two years and returned a high percentage of the players off of those teams.  Only four teams have made the quarterfinals three straight years (UWW, Mount Union, Wesley and UST).  The other three teams (and North Cental) started the season ranked ahead of UST, but Wesley lost, so UST jumped them.  UST hasn't done anything during the season that would warrant them dropping, their closest game being a 10 point win over a team that's gone to the semis 2 of 4 years, and dominated a deep conference (though without another really dominant team this year).  I really don't see an argument for having them below #4 or #5, which isn't really all that different from #3.

The great thing about D3 is it doesn't matter and in the end it is really irrelevant.  Either team can win this week.  Sounds like SJF has a ball-hawking defense that could cause problems for UST.  UST has a defense that can cause problems if SJF is forced to drive the field.  In the end it all comes down to execution, not computers, predictions, or rankings.

We are in agreement on my main point, which is that St. Thomas is not in a different league than St. John Fisher and you added another good one in pointing out that includes the other remaining teams as well.  I know a team can rise as other teams around them are knocked off.  I am not saying St. Thomas doesn't deserve a high national ranking.  I really don't know where they should be ranked and that's my point as much as anything.  They are relatively new to the scene.  They probably belong in a fairly fluid group of 5 or 6 teams that could shuffle from 3 to 8.  Someone has to be #3. And we are in FULL agreement that it is great we will find out from what happens on the field! 

Saint Thomas (UST) is 1 of 5 teams that has made the last 3 quarterfinals.  UWW/MUC are in a league by themselves having the last 6 Stagg bowls to themselves, but I think having made the last 3 quarterfinals, the next 3 teams have established firmly above a group of others.  UST, MHB, and Welsey comprise that group of 3

[fisheralum91]

I guess i have to ask- Whats the point?

[Pat Coleman]

I generally believe that St. Thomas has moved into the second tier. It's hard to know until they play a purple power (aka Tier I team) but that's the impression based on having beaten Linfield last year.

In Gordon Mann's tier theory, which I am greatly simplifying, Tier II teams could beat Tier I teams by playing essentially a perfect game of if things break the right way. Similarly, Tier III teams could beat Tier II teams the same way. A Tier III team should never beat a Tier I team. (I think it's fair to say the current Tier II teams are Wesley, Mary Hardin-Baylor, St. Thomas, North Central, Linfield.)

I may have missed something in the retelling of it. SJF and Salisbury are both trying to get into Tier II. By that theory, Salisbury shouldn't be able to beat UWW this weekend, but if they do, they definitely have to be considered Tier II. St. John Fisher can beat St. Thomas, absolutely, under this worldview.

[fisheralum91]

For the love of God, let somebody beat purple!

[WashedUp]

Saint Thomas (UST) is 1 of 5 teams that has made the last 3 quarterfinals.  UWW/MUC are in a league by themselves having the last 6 Stagg bowls to themselves, but I think having made the last 3 quarterfinals, the next 3 teams have established firmly above a group of others.  UST, MHB, and Welsey comprise that group of 3

UMHB actually didn't make the quarterfinals back in 2009, its the only year they've missed since 2006.  Not that that changes anything about their tier.