FB: Empire 8

[WashedUp]

Random side thought:

D-III teams kick too many field goals. Take Starzell. Six of his kicks came with the ball at the 10 yard line or closer. I don't know what the distance for a first was on those kicks, but man, I would think a team might be better off going for it. Suppose Westfield goes for it on all those. A 50% conversion rate gives them 21 points, three points better than they got on the kicks.

And even if you don't get it, think long term. If you pin your opponent inside the five, you've got a shot at a safety (Ithaca did this against Utica) and if you force a punt quickly, you've got a good chance of starting in plus territory.

Personally, unless it were a situation where a team absolutely needs three points (down 14-13 with a minute to go, for example) I'd go for it a lot more.

Random reply to random side thought:  I completely agree. 

A field goal attempted from inside the 10-yard line is often a "safe" decision that's not worth giving up a) the chance of scoring a touchdown and b) the 30+ yards of field position.  The opponent's chance of scoring is virtually nil when starting at their own 5-yard line, but it goes up quite substantially when starting at the 35.

Coaches often ignore this piece of the equation, instead just focusing on the opportunity to put some points on the board themselves.  But what's the point of kicking the FG yourself if it gives your opponent much better odds of returning the favor?  Why not go for the touchdown, which carries a bigger potential payoff?  Even if your attempt fails, you leave the opponent in a very difficult position, and you stand a decent chance of getting the ball back on the plus side of midfield.

As you point out, Bombers, if your success rate in those fourth-and-goal situations is 50%, you've surpassed the # of points that you'd score by kicking all short FG's (and that assumes that your kicker, holder, and snapper are perfect on short FG's and don't botch any of them).  And that's BEFORE we even consider the field-position element discussed above.

There are certainly situations where kicking the short FG is the right decision (end-of-half situations, where the field-position is essentially negated and you give yourself a "free" 3 points, and end-of-game situations where the FG represents tying or go-ahead points).  However, IMHO, coaches should be much more liberal in their decisions to go for it on fourth-and-goal in all other situations.  And that goes for all levels of football, not just Division III.

There's a blog that goes very in depth on this exact topic, among others.  The conclusion that studies like this that I've seen always seem to come to is that pretty much every coach is too conservative.  The problem (at the NFL level) is that going for it and converting doesn't get the coach any praise while going for it and missing can cost a coach his job.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

[Jonny Utah]

Random side thought:

D-III teams kick too many field goals. Take Starzell. Six of his kicks came with the ball at the 10 yard line or closer. I don't know what the distance for a first was on those kicks, but man, I would think a team might be better off going for it. Suppose Westfield goes for it on all those. A 50% conversion rate gives them 21 points, three points better than they got on the kicks.

And even if you don't get it, think long term. If you pin your opponent inside the five, you've got a shot at a safety (Ithaca did this against Utica) and if you force a punt quickly, you've got a good chance of starting in plus territory.

Personally, unless it were a situation where a team absolutely needs three points (down 14-13 with a minute to go, for example) I'd go for it a lot more.

Random reply to random side thought:  I completely agree. 

A field goal attempted from inside the 10-yard line is often a "safe" decision that's not worth giving up a) the chance of scoring a touchdown and b) the 30+ yards of field position.  The opponent's chance of scoring is virtually nil when starting at their own 5-yard line, but it goes up quite substantially when starting at the 35.

Coaches often ignore this piece of the equation, instead just focusing on the opportunity to put some points on the board themselves.  But what's the point of kicking the FG yourself if it gives your opponent much better odds of returning the favor?  Why not go for the touchdown, which carries a bigger potential payoff?  Even if your attempt fails, you leave the opponent in a very difficult position, and you stand a decent chance of getting the ball back on the plus side of midfield.

As you point out, Bombers, if your success rate in those fourth-and-goal situations is 50%, you've surpassed the # of points that you'd score by kicking all short FG's (and that assumes that your kicker, holder, and snapper are perfect on short FG's and don't botch any of them).  And that's BEFORE we even consider the field-position element discussed above.

There are certainly situations where kicking the short FG is the right decision (end-of-half situations, where the field-position is essentially negated and you give yourself a "free" 3 points, and end-of-game situations where the FG represents tying or go-ahead points).  However, IMHO, coaches should be much more liberal in their decisions to go for it on fourth-and-goal in all other situations.  And that goes for all levels of football, not just Division III.

There's a blog that goes very in depth on this exact topic, among others.  The conclusion that studies like this that I've seen always seem to come to is that pretty much every coach is too conservative.  The problem (at the NFL level) is that going for it and converting doesn't get the coach any praise while going for it and missing can cost a coach his job.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

I am an OC at a local high school in Massachusetts.  There are a few things that we do that I think works in high school more than it does at the other levels.

1.  We onside kick at least 10 times a year and will do it multiple times a game against teams that have unskilled players in the front line.  I'd say we recover about 60-70% of these kicks.  We have been lucky with good kickers that can squib it hard right at front line players.

2.  If we are on our own 40+ and it is 4th and 1 we never punt.  We have even gone for it a few times near our own 35 yard line.  I'd say we are about 80-90% successfull on these attempts.

3.  We never kick a field goal inside our 20 yard line unless it is 4th and 10+ and/or the circumstance dictates that a field goal would effect the game.

4.  4th and 10 and under inside the opponents 50 we will always go for it.  We might be about 50/50 here, but the team still gets the ball at midfield and needs a few first downs to get anywhere.

One of the things about high school football is that many teams don't have kickers, so field position isn't going to mean that much.  You also don't see that many defenses being successful on the goalline or 4th and 1 type situations. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Agreed, WashedUp.  Kicking/punting on 4th down are viewed as the "norm" and a coach is generally "safe" from criticism if he makes that decision, while "going for it" is viewed as a "gamble" that "backfires" if it doesn't "work."  Burke and Greg Easterbrook both point this out quite often.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Very cool, Jonny.  I agree that many of those strategies are probably "better" in HS than in college; as you've noted, high school defenses tend to struggle more in 4th-and-1 or goal-line situations than college defenses.  And, given that REALLY good kickers/punters are few and far between in HS, playing a field-position game is generally less effective than in college/pro football.

In response to your onside kick point, I've always thought that would be a smart strategy in HS and college.  I was a front-line-man on the kickoff return team as a freshman at Carnegie Mellon and was always TERRIFIED that the opposition would start the game with an onside kick.  Really, why not?  What are the odds that a freshman offensive tackle will recover a hard squib kick - ten percent?  The kickoff team was likely stocked with DB's and LB's that would have much better speed/hands than I did.  It was a miracle that nobody ever kicked to me.

[Bombers798891]

Random side thought:

D-III teams kick too many field goals. Take Starzell. Six of his kicks came with the ball at the 10 yard line or closer. I don't know what the distance for a first was on those kicks, but man, I would think a team might be better off going for it. Suppose Westfield goes for it on all those. A 50% conversion rate gives them 21 points, three points better than they got on the kicks.

And even if you don't get it, think long term. If you pin your opponent inside the five, you've got a shot at a safety (Ithaca did this against Utica) and if you force a punt quickly, you've got a good chance of starting in plus territory.

Personally, unless it were a situation where a team absolutely needs three points (down 14-13 with a minute to go, for example) I'd go for it a lot more.

But what's the point of kicking the FG yourself if it gives your opponent much better odds of returning the favor?  Why not go for the touchdown, which carries a bigger potential payoff?  Even if your attempt fails, you leave the opponent in a very difficult position, and you stand a decent chance of getting the ball back on the plus side of midfield.

Seriously. To quote Denzel in Training Day: "This **** is chess! It ain't checkers!"

[ExTartanPlayer]

1.  We onside kick at least 10 times a year and will do it multiple times a game against teams that have unskilled players in the front line.  I'd say we recover about 60-70% of these kicks.  We have been lucky with good kickers that can squib it hard right at front line players.

I know that I already mentioned this, but it bears repeating.  EVERY team should do this more often, especially when the KO return team doesn't have "skill" players up front.  I was truly shocked that nobody ever decided "Hey, the front line is mostly composed of backup offensive linemen that probably can't catch anything, let's kick it right at them!"

[Jonny Utah]

1.  We onside kick at least 10 times a year and will do it multiple times a game against teams that have unskilled players in the front line.  I'd say we recover about 60-70% of these kicks.  We have been lucky with good kickers that can squib it hard right at front line players.

I know that I already mentioned this, but it bears repeating.  EVERY team should do this more often, especially when the KO return team doesn't have "skill" players up front.  I was truly shocked that nobody ever decided "Hey, the front line is mostly composed of backup offensive linemen that probably can't catch anything, let's kick it right at them!"

Another thing about HS kickers is that only a certain percentage can kick off deep past the 20/10 yard lines.  If you have a kicker who can't reach past the 20, then the onside kick should always be in your plans.  If your opponent has a decent return team, there is another reason to onside kick. 

We have also tried to develop onside kicking tecniques which line drives it at a player in the front lines.  A good percentage of the time the kick will go right by him and end up deeper past the 50 anyway. 

[AUKaz00]

Agreed, WashedUp.  Kicking/punting on 4th down are viewed as the "norm" and a coach is generally "safe" from criticism if he makes that decision, while "going for it" is viewed as a "gamble" that "backfires" if it doesn't "work."  Burke and Greg Easterbrook both point this out quite often.

I think it also bears mentioning that if you routinely attempt 4th downs, your team will be less nervous in those situations - an advantage over your opponent.  Not to mention the flexibility of play-calling on the first three downs that comes from a plan of attempting the fourth down try.

Fun conversation.  Kickers?  Fourth down attempts?  What's next for the E8PP offseason?!?

[Jonny Utah]

Agreed, WashedUp.  Kicking/punting on 4th down are viewed as the "norm" and a coach is generally "safe" from criticism if he makes that decision, while "going for it" is viewed as a "gamble" that "backfires" if it doesn't "work."  Burke and Greg Easterbrook both point this out quite often.

I think it also bears mentioning that if you routinely attempt 4th downs, your team will be less nervous in those situations - an advantage over your opponent.  Not to mention the flexibility of play-calling on the first three downs that comes from a plan of attempting the fourth down try.

Fun conversation.  Kickers?  Fourth down attempts?  What's next for the E8PP offseason?!?

Look at the Patriots a few years ago against the Colts.  Going on 4th and 2 at their own 30 with 2 minutes left with the lead.  A little different I guess with those circumstances.

[Jonny Utah]

Very cool, Jonny.  I agree that many of those strategies are probably "better" in HS than in college; as you've noted, high school defenses tend to struggle more in 4th-and-1 or goal-line situations than college defenses.  And, given that REALLY good kickers/punters are few and far between in HS, playing a field-position game is generally less effective than in college/pro football.

In response to your onside kick point, I've always thought that would be a smart strategy in HS and college.  I was a front-line-man on the kickoff return team as a freshman at Carnegie Mellon and was always TERRIFIED that the opposition would start the game with an onside kick.  Really, why not?  What are the odds that a freshman offensive tackle will recover a hard squib kick - ten percent?  The kickoff team was likely stocked with DB's and LB's that would have much better speed/hands than I did.  It was a miracle that nobody ever kicked to me.

Just watching some film last night and I thought of another advantage of going for it on fourth down.  When it is 3rd and 7 or so, and you know that you are going to go for it on fourth, you have more options from your play book on that 3rd down.  You don't need to get 7yards on that 3rd down.  Teams will often expect you to pass so a power run can be huge on those downs.  Nfl teams love the draw on 3rd and long (I have not been able to get a good draw to work for us), but I would love to get one.

[AUPepBand]

Pep was happy to see All-American LB Nick Clark at the AU Football Banquet Jan. 28. Clark graduated in December from AU and has been in Texas training for a combine. Clark says he will compete at the Akron, Ohio NFL Combine on March 9. Best of luck to our All-American!

On Saxon Warriors!!

[SJFF82]

Pep was happy to see All-American LB Nick Clark at the AU Football Banquet Jan. 28. Clark graduated in December from AU and has been in Texas training for a combine. Clark says he will compete at the Akron, Ohio NFL Combine on March 9. Best of luck to our All-American!

On Saxon Warriors!!

82 is neither an All-American nor is he in any city training for any NFL combines, but he did stay at a holiday inn express last night......

[AUPepBand]

Pep was happy to see All-American LB Nick Clark at the AU Football Banquet Jan. 28. Clark graduated in December from AU and has been in Texas training for a combine. Clark says he will compete at the Akron, Ohio NFL Combine on March 9. Best of luck to our All-American!

On Saxon Warriors!!

82 is neither an All-American nor is he in any city training for any NFL combines, but he did stay at a holiday inn express last night......

Nice, 82! +K

[AUPepBand]

A year ago December, Pep parted with the traditional AU Pep Bandwagon, that gray 1992 Dodge Grand Caravan that Pep had purchased just prior to 9/11/01. Parting was difficult as the bandwagon had so many great stories connected to it. Pep always liked the little extra bells and whistles that come with an "LE," although, thru the years, most of those bells and whistles no longer rang....or blew(?). When Pep made the second-hand purchase, the 1992 had 137,000 miles on it. It was retired in December 2010 with 319,764 miles.

Now it seems that KaZ00 is parting with his 1999 Grand Caravan Sport and, when Pep broke a tie rod on his present 2000 Dodge Caravan, Kaz was kind enough to loan Pep his 1999, which he had been planning to sell. Pep took it for the weekend to "test drive it" and, lo, and behold, discovered it had all the same bells and whistles as the old Pep Bandwagon....but they work! And, further, the odometer on Kaz's van read........(drum roll).......137,000+ miles.

Now mind you, AU will be "on the road" for six games in 2012, with, to date, only three at home. So it looks like the white 1999 Grand Caravan Sport Pep Bandwagon will be logging some miles hauling the band all over the Northeast this fall to Canton, Troy, Oneonta, Buffalo, Utica and, who knows, maybe even Salisbury, MD!

On Saxon Warriors!

[SUADC]

A year ago December, Pep parted with the traditional AU Pep Bandwagon, that gray 1992 Dodge Grand Caravan that Pep had purchased just prior to 9/11/01. Parting was difficult as the bandwagon had so many great stories connected to it. Pep always liked the little extra bells and whistles that come with an "LE," although, thru the years, most of those bells and whistles no longer rang....or blew(?). When Pep made the second-hand purchase, the 1992 had 137,000 miles on it. It was retired in December 2010 with 319,764 miles.

Now it seems that KaZ00 is parting with his 1999 Grand Caravan Sport and, when Pep broke a tie rod on his present 2000 Dodge Caravan, Kaz was kind enough to loan Pep his 1999, which he had been planning to sell. Pep took it for the weekend to "test drive it" and, lo, and behold, discovered it had all the same bells and whistles as the old Pep Bandwagon....but they work! And, further, the odometer on Kaz's van read........(drum roll).......137,000+ miles.

Now mind you, AU will be "on the road" for six games in 2012, with, to date, only three at home. So it looks like the white 1999 Grand Caravan Sport Pep Bandwagon will be logging some miles hauling the band all over the Northeast this fall to Canton, Troy, Oneonta, Buffalo, Utica and, who knows, maybe even Salisbury, MD!
On Saxon Warriors!

Will be happy to see you in the four season state.